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RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight
Chew Lock Pin Director
Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) Programme Office
National Security Coordination Secretariat Prime Minister’s Office
Singapore
Emerging National Security Threats
New Open Source Movements, New Hacks, New Crimes
BioBricks
Composable Proteins
OPENSOURCE BIOTECH OS WEAPONS BIOTECH GARAGE
3D Printing
CAD Designs
THE DEEP WEB
Cognitive Security
and Safety
Old picture that started a fight
Fake AP Tweet about White House Bombing that created a flash crash in the Stock Market
Dangerous Beliefs
Slender-man murder: Teenagers killed for a fictitious character.
Online Radicalisation: Foreign fighters at ISIS.
“See, Attend, Act”
Gary Klein Dave Snowden
An Experiment on methodologies dealing with…
COGNITIVE BIAS
See, Attend, Act
• Scenario is designed to surprise: lead participants down the Garden Path;
• Apply tools that break Cognitive Bias;
• “See”: Participants successfully detected the weak signals and were spot-on about the real scenario;
• But the majority chose to remain in the status quo;
Line-up of Ideas and Facts leading up to 9/11
1995: Air France 8969. Algerian Terrorist Group attempted to crash plane onto Eiffel Tower
1993: World Trade Centre attacked by Truck Bombs
1998: Terrorism experts gave FAA two scenarios. One is about plane crashing into WTC.
2000: Al Qaeda attack on USS Cole.
Jul 2001: FBI agent reported Terrorist training in flight schools in Arizona.
Sep 2001: NSA intercepted comms about a terrorist plot from 8 to 10 Sep 2001.
Better Anticipation
Not Prediction
RAHS Programme VISION
Leading Centre of Expertise in Strategic Anticipation for National Security
MISSION
Enhance policymaking capabilities through engaging analyses, robust processes, and
leading-edge systems
Horizon scanning,
research and analysis
Agency engagement,
process development,
concepts exploration
Experimentation,
RAHS system
maintenance
“See”
“Attend” “Act”
Economic and Financial (In)Stability
Climate Change
Energy Security
Cyber Security
Geopolitical Developments
Terrorism
Social Change
New Media
Bio-Med Developments
Unconventional Weapons
Liveable Cities and Competitiveness
Emerging Technologies Resource
Security
Transport Security
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
12
• Keeping people aware; • Obtain Feedback by crowd-
sourcing;
WORD CLOUD ANALYSIS
Sensemaking
Geographical Analysis
TEMPORAL ANALYSIS
20 Aug 13
Time
DDOS attack on NYT, Melbourn IT
27 Aug 13
DDOS attack on China
22 Jul 13
SEC activity on ..
29 Jun 13
Orange denote Syrian Elect Army Exploits Green denotes Anonymous exploits
CONTENT ANALYSIS
Scan to Trend Process
and Application
Is the Issue Relevant to Singapore?
What is its impact?
Which agency should take note?
Is it plausible? Is it Likely to happen?
Selecting an Issue
Developing Future Scenarios
FUTURE SCENARIOS
1st Horizon Today’s Realities
2nd Horizon Getting There
3rd Horizon Vision
Economic
Technology Environment
Politics
Security Social
GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY SECURITY TECH
Issues to
Indicators
Process
Energy Security Futures Study
DRIVERS
Morphological Analysis A multivariate approach to generate plausible scenarios
Scenario #1 A Green Future
Scenario #2 A Vibrant Energy Market
Scenario #3 No Light at the End of the Tunnel
Scenario Exercise and Policy Gaming
Stress Testing of Policies
Role-Play
Reveal strengths and weakness of Policies
Scenarios to Strategies Process
Act
Needs a Sponsor and a Decision Making Platform
NSCS Organisation Structure
A short distance to the top is useful
The Cynefin Model (Analysis)
Unknowable Knowable
Known Turbulent and Unconnected
Dave Snowden, Cognitive Edge
Learning to Operate in the Complex and the Complicated
Sensemake by creating multiple perspectives Coalesce perspectives into Scenarios/ Patterns Experiment and Probe.
Model the Environment Map the System Plan Contingencies
Overcome Organizational Structures / Stovepipes
LAW
Security
ISSUES
FUTURES
3rd Horizon
2rd Horizon
IMPLICATIONS
TRENDS Medical
Space
Industry & Manufacturing
Decision Making Platform for Foresight
Sea lanes of Communication
Critical Infrastructure
Supply Chain
Security Policy Review Committee
Chaired by DPM/CMNS Directs strategic planning & policy formulation, examines critical issues & threats, approves strategic capability development,
reviews prevailing measures and oversees WOG coordination and cooperation
Aviation Public Transport Maritime
Security Sensitive Materials
MINDEF-MHA Collaboration
Food Security
National Security Coordinating Committee
Chaired by PS (NSIC) Supports & executes SPRC decisions, guides capability development,
oversees IMCs
Intelligence Coordinating Committee Chaired by PS (NSIC)
Deliberates on developments in terrorism and national security related issues and gives direction for strategic analysis
and follow-up action
Infocomm Security*
National Security Structure
Inter-Ministerial Committees
COLLABORATIVE FORESIGHT
• Collaborate with local government agencies
• Use Wikistrat online simulation platform
• Crowdsourcing Approach
• Studying the topic of “Eurasian Resource and Economic Trajectories”
4 Master
Narratives
21 days
136 Scenarios
170 Participants Online
PROJECT WIKISENSE
Working with Students
The Future of National Service in Singapore
PARTNERSHIPS Local and Foreign
• A collaboration with the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative on the topic of “Technology and Society”
• The project studies the emergence of key fundamental technologies on the horizon and examining their impact on society
Others:
Foresight Competencies
Critical Thinking (Developing Insights)
Knowledge of Futures Methodologies, Tools and Processes
Develop New
Methods
Info Gathering &
Distilling
Consulting
Training and
Facilitation
Project Management
Engaging & Partnering
Policy Thinking
Domain Knowledge
Creative
Communications
Networking
Common
Job Specific
RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight
Chew Lock Pin
Director, RAHS Programme Office
