Nishan-e-Barg-e-Gul Tak Bhi Na Chorh Iss Bagh Mein Gul Cheen !Teri Qismat Se Razm Arayan Hain Baghbanon Mein

O gardener do not leave even the rose‐petals’ trace in this garden!By your misfortune war preparations are afoot among the gardeners

India Millions

2020 1,388,859

2030 1,527,658

2040 1,633,728

2050 1,705,333

2060 1,745,182

2070 1,753,604

2080 1,737,150

2090 1,704,073

Population projections- India.

Pakistan Millions

2020 208,437

2030 244,916

2040 278,987

2050 309,640

2060 332,978

2070 349,490

2080 359,782

2090 364,283

Population projections- Pakistan.

The Importance of Agriculture in India.

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Provides employment to 56.7% of the workforce of over 460 million. Work force growing by about 8 million a year now.

Provides livelihood to 56% of populationAccounts for 18% of the GDP ($ 1.142 trillion in

2007 or $205 bn.). It was 42.8% in 1980 and supported almost 60% of the population.

India’s population will stabilize around 2060 at 1.8 billion.

To support a 8-9% GDP growth, Agriculture needs to grow at 4%.

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The importance of Agriculture in Pakistan.

• Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. It provides food to consumers and fiber for domestic industry; it also provides livelihood and employment to the majority of the country’s population and is the major source, directly and indirectly, of the country’s export earnings.

• Agriculture employs about 45% of Pakistan’s labour force. More importantly, 66% of the country’s population living in the rural areas is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for its livelihood.

• Almost 68% of the country’s exports are agro-based.

Agriculture constitutes 90 percent of all water use in South Asia, making it by far the most significant sector for water demand.

Agriculture is also the most important economic activity and largest employer in the region.

Approximately 68 percent of India’s workforce rely on farming, though agricultural contributions accounted for 16 percent.

According to the World Bank (2008), agriculture accounts for one-quarter of Pakistan’s gross domestic product, two-thirds of its employment and 80 percent of its exports.

The continued importance of Agriculture.

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Changing food habits

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The Indus basin.

The Indus Valley Civilization.

Climate change is likely to limit the flow of the Indus River.

Unlike the Ganges and Brahmaputra River systems, which rely more heavily on rainfall, the Indus River system is fed primarily by glacial meltwater.

Meltwater provides approximately 70 to 80 percent of all the water in the Indus River. Global warming thus has a disproportionate impact on the amount of water entering the Indus and its tributaries.

The precise effects of climate change on the Indus River system are highly dependent on how climate change is modeled.

However, widely referenced estimates indicate a troublinglong-term trend for the flow of the Indus River.

Immediate consequences for the Indus.

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Pakistan’s water resources.• Pakistan owns world’s largest irrigation system. Total length of

canals in Pakistan is 56073 km, while the total length of watercourses is 1.6 million km. About, 106 MAF is diverted to canals, of which about 15% is lost in main and branch canals, 8% water is lost in distributor minors, 30% water is lost in water courses and 30% in the field. The efficiency of irrigation system just over 41%. 

• Pakistan’s surface flow in the Indus basin system is 145 MAF annually.

• The water mined from underground aquifers, which is around 40 MAF annually, is not really a renewable resource. Pakistan is sprinting from a water scarce country to becoming a water stressed country and within a water famine country.

• Since majority of land holdings are of less than five acres, the income patterns of households owning them, become highly vulnerable to the vagaries of weather and economic shocks.

Sources of water- Pakistan

River water provides 80 percent of all irrigation water for Pakistan’s critical agriculture sector. These water sources are already near their limits, with most water diverted to northern Pakistan’s agricultural regions at the expense of the south. In fact, so much water is diverted from the Indus before it reaches the ocean that seawater has invaded the river channel miles inland.

Based on current projections, the Indus River system is expected to fall below 2000 flow levels between 2030 and 2050. The drop-off is estimated to be most serious between 2030 and 2040, with a new equilibrium flow of 20 percent below that of 2000 reached after 2060.

IPCC prognosis for Pakistan.

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● Reduced water availability is altering the crop rotation and cropping patterns leading to reduction in cereal production, as well as in cotton and sugarcane. In southern Pakistan yields of major cereals are predicted to decline by 15-20%. ● Livestock production predicted to decline by 20-30%, creating crises in milk, meat and poultry supplies and pushing prices beyond reach of most. ● Inland fisheries predicted to be reduced due to decreased water availability and changing river flows.● Plant diseases, weeds and insect attacks will increase considerably, resulting in major crop losses.● Fruits, vegetables and horticultural products are high-value exports for Pakistan. Pakistan earns 70% of its foreign exchange from agriculture alone..

.Issues arising from Climate Change –Pakistan

India’s growing groundwater dependence.

India’s groundwater potential.• The ultimate sustainable irrigation potential of

India has been estimated to be 139.5 mha, comprising 58.5 mha from major and medium river-fed irrigation canal schemes, 15 mha from minor irrigation canal schemes, and 66 mha from groundwater well fed irrigation.

 • India's irrigation now is mostly groundwater well

based. At 39 million hectares (67% of its total irrigation), India has the world's largest groundwater well equipped irrigation system.

End of land for India.

End of land.

End of land.

Areas of Co-operation.• Both, India and Pakistan need to hugely increase food production to meet

the growing demands.  • Both, India and Pakistan are inefficient producers of food grains and

agro-commodities.• Since they share agro-climatic zones both will benefit by sharing

knowledge and experience. • Both, India and Pakistan are increasingly water stressed and increasingly

dependent on aquifers for irrigation. Both, countries share the waters of the Indus basin. Both countries share the aquifers of Punjab, Rajasthan and Sindh. It is vital that they jointly map the aquifers and jointly plan on how best to use these resources and to replenish them. 

• Both, India and Pakistan have rendered agriculture largely uneconomic with exorbitant subsidy regimes at huge cost to the rest of their economies. Their proximity makes them susceptible to emulation of bad practices.

• Since the two countries need to retain a price equilibrium, it would make sense for them to jointly understand how to make agriculture commercially viable in a freer market environment.

Watan Ki Fikar Kar Nadan! Musibat Ane Wali HaiTeri Barbadiyon Ke Mashware Hain Asmanon Mein

Think of the homeland, O ignorant one! Hard times are comingConspiracies for your destruction are afoot in the heavens