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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 01 June 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price 1st

Target

IQCD 137.20 141.00

ERES 18.10 19.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,048.26 1.2 84.9

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,150 12,250 12,350

Support 12,000 11,800 11,700

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index rose 1.2% from Thursday’s closing and created a bullish Harami. A bullish Harami candlestick is usually a weak reversing signal. A strong Harami signal needs heavy traded volumes, which we lacked in the previous session. As a result, we might see a slight correction upwards. Expected Resistance Level: 12,150 Expected Support Level: 12,000

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 31 May 28 May %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 517.2 2,670.8 -80.6

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 642.6 633.8 1.4

Volume (mn) 16.3 86.9 -81.3

Number of Trans. 5,842 12,996 -55.0

Companies Traded 39 43 -9.3

Market Breadth 28:8 7:32 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,723.63 1.2 42.0

All Share Index 3,219.84 1.1 41.8

Banks 3,162.62 1.0 38.2

Industrials 3,852.47 1.4 35.7

Transportation 2,453.61 0.5 45.5

Real Estate 2,732.49 -0.1 46.8

Insurance 4,860.38 -0.4 72.6

Telecoms 1,262.47 7.8 44.7

Consumer 7,254.88 1.6 44.9

Al Rayan Islamic 4,599.65 1.6 44.8

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QATI 99.90 -1.0 71.8

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

MPHC 25.05 0.2 23.1

DBIS 26.35 1.2 28.8

GISS 77.80 0.8 29.8

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 137.20 2.31 121,628

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 138.50 141.00 143.00

Support 135.00 134.00 130.00

Commentary

Overview: IQCD created a Harami, which is a bullish reversing candlestick, after 11% drop since last May. Although it is a weak buying signal, it can be strengthened by a the below price action. Expected Target Price: QR141.00 – QR143.00 A break above QR138.50 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR135.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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ERES

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 18.10 -0.93 7,498,757

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 18.36 19.00 19.50

Support 17.30 16.75 16.50

Commentary

Overview: ERES reached the short-term uptrend line and created a Hammer candlestick. The Hammer candlestick is a bullish reversing candle which signifies change in traders overall psychology in the previous session – from bearish to bullish. This positive sentiment might extend in the coming sessions. Expected Target Price: QR19.00 – QR19.50 A price break above QR18.36 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR17.30

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,048.26 11,871.52 11,925.71 11,959.18 12,013.37 12,067.56 12,101.03 12,155.22 12,044.63 12,100.00 12,700.59

Total Return 18,723.63 18,448.96 18,533.17 18,585.20 18,669.40 18,753.61 18,805.64 18,889.84 18,706.59 18,519.52 19,179.06

All Share 3,219.84 3,180.00 3,192.44 3,200.12 3,212.56 3,225.00 3,232.68 3,245.12 3,216.51 3,188.92 3,280.55

Al Rayan Islamic 4,599.65 4,522.68 4,544.73 4,558.35 4,580.41 4,602.46 4,616.08 4,638.14 4,534.47 4,393.99 4,443.94

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.25 44.52 44.80 44.98 45.27 45.55 45.73 46.02 47.49 47.00 49.13

CBQK 55.10 53.90 54.36 54.64 55.10 55.56 55.84 56.30 56.63 59.42 61.90

DHBK 53.50 52.50 52.96 53.24 53.70 54.16 54.44 54.90 53.37 54.83 56.80

QIBK 106.60 104.33 105.02 105.45 106.13 106.82 107.25 107.93 102.66 103.52 106.78

QIIK 79.30 76.50 77.42 77.98 78.90 79.82 80.38 81.30 79.87 81.49 83.56

Insurance

QATI 99.90 94.63 96.54 97.72 99.63 101.54 102.72 104.63 84.00 80.52 81.34

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 170.00 163.67 165.96 167.37 169.67 171.96 173.37 175.67 160.97 149.32 137.49

Industrials

IQCD 137.20 134.00 135.07 135.73 136.80 137.87 138.53 139.60 141.71 145.35 165.79

QEWS 214.10 211.97 212.58 212.96 213.57 214.18 214.56 215.17 203.14 197.18 192.35

GISS 77.80 75.73 76.42 76.85 77.53 78.22 78.65 79.33 86.71 92.33 102.90

QIGD 52.50 48.10 49.36 50.14 51.40 52.66 53.44 54.70 46.57 43.74 47.20

Real Estate

BRES 50.60 49.80 50.11 50.29 50.60 50.91 51.09 51.40 48.65 47.71 45.42

UDCD 23.06 22.89 22.96 23.01 23.09 23.16 23.21 23.29 22.42 23.20 25.13

ERES 18.10 16.92 17.29 17.52 17.89 18.26 18.49 18.86 17.38 16.49 17.41

MRDS 18.97 18.76 18.85 18.91 19.01 19.10 19.16 19.26 18.47 18.61 20.02

Telecommunication

ORDS 94.50 88.23 90.11 91.26 93.13 95.01 96.16 98.03 99.23 106.43 115.24

VFQS 17.16 15.97 16.31 16.52 16.86 17.20 17.41 17.75 17.48 17.08 18.24

Transportation

QGTS 22.18 21.91 22.01 22.08 22.19 22.29 22.36 22.47 22.55 23.26 23.56

QNNS 98.80 97.73 98.04 98.23 98.53 98.84 99.03 99.33 99.03 100.88 98.82 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025

saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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