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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 23 March 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

SIIS 13.13 13.70

QGMD 10.69 11.35

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,517.48 -0.1 6.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,600 11,700 11,800

Support 11,350 11,200 11,000

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index created a Doji candlestick in the previous session after the Bullish Harami the session before. This signifies indecision among investors after the sharp drop (over 10%) the Index experienced since February’s peak. We remain cautious for the time being with regards to the direction of the Index. However, we are leaning towards a bounce at this point. Expected Resistance Level: 11,600 Expected Support Level: 11,350

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 22 Mar 15 19 Mar 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 214.5 380.0 -43.6

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 623.9 624.4 -0.1

Volume (mn) 4.9 8.3 -41.4

Number of Trans. 3,633 5,660 -35.8

Companies Traded 38 40 -5.0

Market Breadth 15:16 30:9 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,770.41 0.2 33.9

All Share Index 3,074.77 0.2 33.5

Banks 3,118.03 0.5 34.5

Industrials 3,725.74 -0.9 26.2

Transportation 2,439.92 -0.5 46.8

Real Estate 2,371.22 0.9 45.7

Insurance 4,100.69 2.0 54.1

Telecoms 1,319.58 -0.5 35.0

Consumer 6,856.85 0.2 28.3

Al Rayan Islamic 4,188.01 -0.4 36.4

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IQCD 132.70 -1.4 18.3

QFLS 183.00 0.8 23.6

QNCD 116.10 -2.5 24.1

CBQK 58.00 -5.8 24.8

SIIS 13.13 -0.5 26.1

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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SIIS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 13.13 -0.45 57,710

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13.30 13.70 13.90

Support 12.90 12.25 12.00

Commentary

Overview: The name is going through a bearish leg since January. Price has stabilized recently and might be bound for a bounce. The RSI reached the oversold area on the daily and breaching above that area on the intraday time frame. A bullish move is needed to break above the downtrend line (seen on the intraday chart). That bullish move is the pre-requisite for any long position to be considered. Expected Target Price: QR13.70 – QR13.90 A break above QR13.30 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop loss: QR13.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QGMD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 10.69 1.42 148,186

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10.90 11.35 11.70

Support 10.45 10.00 9.50

Commentary

Overview: QGMD is stabilizing above QR10.50, which is a strong support level created by previous peaks and troughs since last December. Technical indicators are flat, due to trading inside a recent price range. The stock, at this time, is trading at the lower part of that range. Expected Target Price: QR11.35 – QR11.70 A break above QR10.90 is needed to trigger the long position on the stock. Suggested Stop loss: QR10.45

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,517.48 11,381.01 11,436.52 11,470.81 11,526.33 11,581.84 11,616.13 11,671.65 12,155.37 12,520.08 12,895.98

Total Return 17,770.41 17,559.84 17,645.49 17,698.40 17,784.06 17,869.71 17,922.62 18,008.28 18,332.46 18,775.00 19,284.65

All Share 3,074.77 3,040.02 3,053.72 3,062.18 3,075.88 3,089.58 3,098.04 3,111.74 3,161.32 3,219.02 3,287.50

Al Rayan Islamic 4,188.01 4,127.96 4,153.19 4,168.78 4,194.00 4,219.23 4,234.82 4,260.04 4,253.52 4,287.87 4,385.92

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.30 44.57 44.85 45.03 45.32 45.60 45.78 46.07 46.51 46.91 50.73

CBQK 58.00 56.07 56.98 57.55 58.47 59.38 59.95 60.87 62.22 63.19 62.93

DHBK 50.50 49.43 49.85 50.11 50.53 50.95 51.21 51.63 56.28 56.86 58.11

QIBK 99.00 96.60 97.44 97.96 98.80 99.64 100.16 101.00 104.39 104.37 105.90

QIIK 76.30 75.30 75.61 75.79 76.10 76.41 76.59 76.90 83.10 83.01 84.46

Insurance

QATI 76.50 70.90 72.58 73.62 75.30 76.98 78.02 79.70 77.05 77.98 78.48

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 141.00 131.20 134.68 136.82 140.30 143.78 145.92 149.40 137.28 129.66 119.89

Industrials

IQCD 132.70 129.90 131.24 132.06 133.40 134.74 135.56 136.90 148.98 166.24 174.76

QEWS 180.10 179.30 179.72 179.98 180.40 180.82 181.08 181.50 191.23 189.20 188.04

GISS 86.30 84.43 85.04 85.42 86.03 86.64 87.02 87.63 97.94 101.98 106.56

QIGD 38.80 37.93 38.41 38.71 39.18 39.66 39.96 40.43 40.91 42.38 49.99

Real Estate

BRES 47.10 46.37 46.71 46.92 47.27 47.61 47.82 48.17 46.78 45.97 43.38

UDCD 22.30 20.97 21.39 21.65 22.06 22.48 22.74 23.15 23.99 24.53 26.03

ERES 15.60 15.15 15.28 15.36 15.49 15.62 15.70 15.83 15.61 16.39 18.56

MRDS 18.00 17.60 17.79 17.91 18.10 18.29 18.41 18.60 19.68 20.43 20.85

Telecommunication

ORDS 104.30 100.70 102.38 103.42 105.10 106.78 107.82 109.50 113.63 116.16 124.50

VFQS 17.25 16.85 16.99 17.07 17.21 17.35 17.43 17.57 16.69 17.16 18.71

Transportation

QGTS 22.90 22.23 22.46 22.60 22.83 23.06 23.20 23.43 23.97 23.66 23.72

QNNS 100.90 95.90 97.35 98.25 99.70 101.15 102.05 103.50 102.73 100.39 97.30 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.