Risk-based Asset Management Strategies for Climate & Earthquake Events
September 26, 2018
The challenge for local governments…
Earthquakes Flooding
Wildfire
Landslides
Debris Flows
Tsunamis
Wind Storms Extreme Weather
Delta Subsidence Find resources to: • Identify and characterize hazards • Assess risks • Communicate results • Develop safely • Maintain infrastructure • Plan for emergency response &
recovery
The challenge for local governments…
Natural Hazards Management Program
• Understand hazards & risks using proactive approach • Reduce risks to life, infrastructure & environment • Ensure development policies limit future risk • Encourage shared responsibility & community involvement • Maintain a geospatially-referenced hazard database • Liaise with scientific, academic & government organizations to
create and follow best practices
Resilience planning
• Risk assessments for natural hazards
• Natural hazard risk mitigation strategies
• Hazard and environment development permit areas
• Development standards for infrastructure
• Long-range asset management planning
• Increased community awareness
Creek Hazards • Extensive creek network that poses a risk to public safety,
municipal assets and private property
• Climate change projections indicate an increase in intensity and duration of rainfall events
• Aging storm drainage infrastructure is vulnerable
• Creeks work as a system – upstream and downstream impacts
• Current development policies limit risk exposure; this risk reduction program is to manage existing risk
Storm drainage infrastructure risk assessment Hazard
Characterization
Hazard Analyses Hydrologic, Debris Flood, Debris Flow Assessment
Hazard Scenario Modelling & Mapping
Culvert Overflow (Blockage)Assessment
Risk Analyses
Risk Reduction Options & Costs
Risk Management Web Application (DNVHIT)
Risk Reduction Options Assessment
Risk Ratings (Creek and Asset)
Asset Characterization
Debris Geohazard Risk Assessment & Mitigation Options (BGC, 2017)
• Assessed risk to public safety, property and assets (roads and storm sewer)
• Decision matrix prioritized creeks based on risk, ownership and feasibility
Implementation Plan Creeks have been sorted into 5 implementation categories: 1. Mitigation works already in progress, via Build Canada grant 2. DNV infrastructure only – managed via Asset Management
Plan 3. Rural/remote creeks - managed via Creek Hazard
Development Permit Area 4. Urban creeks – managed via proposed 10 year work plan 5. Lower risk creeks (to be re-evaluated in 2027)
Disaster Resilience by Design
We live in earthquake country
Disaster Resilience by Design
Regional Earthquake Hazards shallow earthquake (~12% in 50-year)
deep ‘benioff zone’ earthquake (~60% in 50-year)
subduction earthquake (~12% in 50-year)
Disaster Resilience by Design Hazard Potential- Scenario Earthquakes
Disaster Resilience by Design
A Profile of Earthquake Risk Hazard Potential
ground shaking
landslides
liquefaction
Vulnerability buildings
economy infrastructure
people
Impacts & Consequences
building damage economic loss lifeline services injuries & social disruption
Disaster Resilience adaptation mitigation emergency management
Disaster Resilience by Design
Seismic Hazards
Disaster Resilience by Design
Physical Vulnerability
Pre-Code (1973) Low Code (1973-1990) Moderate Code (1990-2005) Moderate Code Special (1990-2005) High Code (2005-2010) High Code Special (2005-2010)
Seismic Design Level
Disaster Resilience by Design
Analysis of Damage Potential
None & Slight minor damage to walls & supports
Moderate
localized failure of walls & supports
Extensive & Complete
permanent structural failure & imminent danger of collapse
Likelihood of damage
Disaster Resilience by Design
Building Performance – M7.3 Georgia Strait
Disaster Resilience by Design
Public Safety
Disaster Resilience by Design
Lifeline Resilience
Disaster Resilience by Design
Economic Security
$4.4M/day ~90%
DNV Gross Daily Revenue ~$5M per day
= loss
~ $4.4 M per day of business-related losses
lost wages & business income rental & relocation costs
20 P . P .
Who’s covering your assets?
Long Term Vision
1.Metro Vancouver wide 2.British Columbia wide 3.Canada wide 4.North America wide 5.World wide
Risk pools can handle major events Building financial resilience takes time
Disaster recovery and financial risk
• Acting on new information: – Uninsured municipal assets ($100B) – Risk of loss in major quake event (e.g.$10B to $30B) – Municipal exposure unfunded ($2B to $6B)
• Good planning = assess your risks and establish reserves • Better planning = assess your risks and pool with others
Final Thought
We pay $15 Billion in insurance premiums annually on things that “may” come and nothing on major events that “will come”
There are over 100,000 government entities in
North America. Approximately 85% receive some form of insurance coverage from a risk
pool and pay approximately $15 Billion in premiums annually.
Risk Control Elements
Debris Control Structures Trash Racks
Channel Upgrades Culvert Replacements
Risk Control Elements (cont)
Debris Basins Log Crib Structures
Swales