Risk-based Asset Management Strategies for Climate & Earthquake Events

September 26, 2018

The challenge for local governments…

Earthquakes Flooding

Wildfire

Landslides

Debris Flows

Tsunamis

Wind Storms Extreme Weather

Delta Subsidence Find resources to: • Identify and characterize hazards • Assess risks • Communicate results • Develop safely • Maintain infrastructure • Plan for emergency response &

recovery

The challenge for local governments…

Natural Hazards Management Program

• Understand hazards & risks using proactive approach • Reduce risks to life, infrastructure & environment • Ensure development policies limit future risk • Encourage shared responsibility & community involvement • Maintain a geospatially-referenced hazard database • Liaise with scientific, academic & government organizations to

create and follow best practices

Resilience planning

• Risk assessments for natural hazards

• Natural hazard risk mitigation strategies

• Hazard and environment development permit areas

• Development standards for infrastructure

• Long-range asset management planning

• Increased community awareness

Creek Hazards • Extensive creek network that poses a risk to public safety,

municipal assets and private property

• Climate change projections indicate an increase in intensity and duration of rainfall events

• Aging storm drainage infrastructure is vulnerable

• Creeks work as a system – upstream and downstream impacts

• Current development policies limit risk exposure; this risk reduction program is to manage existing risk

Storm drainage infrastructure risk assessment Hazard

Characterization

Hazard Analyses Hydrologic, Debris Flood, Debris Flow Assessment

Hazard Scenario Modelling & Mapping

Culvert Overflow (Blockage)Assessment

Risk Analyses

Risk Reduction Options & Costs

Risk Management Web Application (DNVHIT)

Risk Reduction Options Assessment

Risk Ratings (Creek and Asset)

Asset Characterization

Debris Geohazard Risk Assessment & Mitigation Options (BGC, 2017)

• Assessed risk to public safety, property and assets (roads and storm sewer)

• Decision matrix prioritized creeks based on risk, ownership and feasibility

Implementation Plan Creeks have been sorted into 5 implementation categories: 1. Mitigation works already in progress, via Build Canada grant 2. DNV infrastructure only – managed via Asset Management

Plan 3. Rural/remote creeks - managed via Creek Hazard

Development Permit Area 4. Urban creeks – managed via proposed 10 year work plan 5. Lower risk creeks (to be re-evaluated in 2027)

Disaster Resilience by Design

We live in earthquake country

Disaster Resilience by Design

Regional Earthquake Hazards shallow earthquake (~12% in 50-year)

deep ‘benioff zone’ earthquake (~60% in 50-year)

subduction earthquake (~12% in 50-year)

Disaster Resilience by Design Hazard Potential- Scenario Earthquakes

Disaster Resilience by Design

A Profile of Earthquake Risk Hazard Potential

ground shaking

landslides

liquefaction

Vulnerability buildings

economy infrastructure

people

Impacts & Consequences

building damage economic loss lifeline services injuries & social disruption

Disaster Resilience adaptation mitigation emergency management

Disaster Resilience by Design

Seismic Hazards

Disaster Resilience by Design

Physical Vulnerability

Pre-Code (1973) Low Code (1973-1990) Moderate Code (1990-2005) Moderate Code Special (1990-2005) High Code (2005-2010) High Code Special (2005-2010)

Seismic Design Level

Disaster Resilience by Design

Analysis of Damage Potential

None & Slight minor damage to walls & supports

Moderate

localized failure of walls & supports

Extensive & Complete

permanent structural failure & imminent danger of collapse

Likelihood of damage

Disaster Resilience by Design

Building Performance – M7.3 Georgia Strait

Disaster Resilience by Design

Public Safety

Disaster Resilience by Design

Lifeline Resilience

Disaster Resilience by Design

Economic Security

$4.4M/day ~90%

DNV Gross Daily Revenue ~$5M per day

= loss

~ $4.4 M per day of business-related losses

lost wages & business income rental & relocation costs

20 P . P .

Who’s covering your assets?

Long Term Vision

1.Metro Vancouver wide 2.British Columbia wide 3.Canada wide 4.North America wide 5.World wide

Risk pools can handle major events Building financial resilience takes time

Disaster recovery and financial risk

• Acting on new information: – Uninsured municipal assets ($100B) – Risk of loss in major quake event (e.g.$10B to $30B) – Municipal exposure unfunded ($2B to $6B)

• Good planning = assess your risks and establish reserves • Better planning = assess your risks and pool with others

Final Thought

We pay $15 Billion in insurance premiums annually on things that “may” come and nothing on major events that “will come”

There are over 100,000 government entities in

North America. Approximately 85% receive some form of insurance coverage from a risk

pool and pay approximately $15 Billion in premiums annually.

Risk Control Elements

Debris Control Structures Trash Racks

Channel Upgrades Culvert Replacements

Risk Control Elements (cont)

Debris Basins Log Crib Structures

Swales