1. mobile trends for the next 10 a collaborative outlook
compliled by Rudy De Waele / m-trends.org
2. enjoy! contributors Douglas Rushkoff Katrin Verclas Willem
Boijens Timo Arnall Gerd Leonhard Fabien Girardin Alan Moore Martin
Duval Tony Fish Ilja Laurs Yuri van Geest Nicolas Nova Raimo van
der Klein Russell Buckley Tomi Ahonen Stefan Constantinescu Rich
Wong Marshall Kirkpatrick Andy Abramson Marek Pawlowski Russ
McGuire Carlo Longino Howard Rheingold Steve O'Hear Ted Morgan 4 5
6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32
Kevin C. Tofel Jonathan MacDonald David Wood Michael
Breidenbruecker Henri Moissinac Andreas Constantinou C. Enrique
Ortiz Raj Singh Marc Davis David Harper Loic Le Meur Ajit Jaokar
Inma Martinez Carlos Domingo Kelly Goto Felix Petersen Matthaus
Krzykowski Tom Hume Atau Tanaka Robert Rice You! (if you like) 33
34 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 54 55 56 58
3. At the turn of a decade it's always worthwhile looking back
to ones initial dreams. In my case it was all about being at the
forefront of innovation in the mobile space. From viewing my first
mobile video in Helsinki to the first mobile augmented reality demo
in Amsterdam. I had the chance to participate in and witness many
interesting projects in mobile from the 1st row: as an
entrepreneur, a strategist, a conference organizer, a blogger, a
speaker and a networker with a mission to inspire others, to help
them in the process of building new great things. To this end I
have been writing down my predictions in mobile & wireless for
a couple of years now. This year I thought it was the time to move
on and do something different, so I asked some of my personal
heroes in mobile to write down their five most significant trends
for the coming decade. All of them have been of great inspiration
to me during this decade: for their ideas, visions, talent, the
capabilities to adapt and the perseverance to succeed whatever the
situation. While I didn't know any one of these great people 10
years ago, I'm glad to have met most of them and proud that some I
can call them real friends. I am in awe and grateful when I look at
the wisdom and insight that these busy people were so happy to
share with the world. It is exactly in this spirit that I myself
want to move on into the next decade. Convinced that more openness,
knowledge sharing and collaboration is key to facing our global
challenges, in 2009, I co-founded dotopen.com. A space at the fuzzy
edges of innovation, dotopen.com will hopefully help many
entrepreneurs and organizations across all industries to open up,
exchange, collaborate, create and inspire. I hope to meet you all
there! Rudy De Waele co-founder dotopen.com, blogger, speaker
@mtrends m-trends.org BY NC ND
4. 1. ESP sensors. Probably based on brainwave activity. Not so
hard. 2. Driving locks. 3. Implanted bluetooth ear and microphone.
4. Verizon abandons CDMA. 5. Radiation and brain damage documented.
Douglas Rushkoff Author of Life Inc. @rushkoff rushkoff.com BY NC
ND 4
5. Katrin Verclas Co-founder & editor of MobileActive.org
@KatrinSkaya mobileactive.org 1. Mobiles in social development will
truly become an integral part of development projects and
programmes with aid organizations understanding the potential of
mobiles and smartly deploying mobile tech as part of their
programmes. UNICEF and CONCERN will be at the vanguard. 2. Africa
will see the first truly mobile political campaign. It'll be likely
in Nigeria in 2010. 3. Mobile payments will be widespread - for
social benefit payments by governments, for remittances across
borders, and for tax and other payments by citizens. This will make
financial governance every so slightly more accountable in
developing countries, and will begin to make a positive economic
impact at the bottom of the economic pyramid. 4. Health care
delivery, especially in developing countries, will see some true
breakthroughs with more telemedicine projects like mobile
ultrasound and other diagnostics. New business models involving
medical expertise remotely will emerge so that the divide between
healthcare between rich and poor areas will flatten. 5. Elections
and other forms of political expression by citizens, government
oversight will be radically different than they are today by way of
mobile voting, mobiles for reporting and government accountability.
6. Environmental monitoring in the form of smart sensing devices
will be part of everyday life with new forms of scientific
environmental discovery and mitigation possible. BY NC ND 5
6. Willem Boijens Marketing innovation & design executive/
Principal manager at Vodafone Group Marketing @willemjhboijens
vodafone.com 1. We're all value creators: value creation &
exchange, collaboration, cocreation in real-time, the next billion
internet users 2. LifeFlow: wellbeing, productivity, efficiency,
sustainability 3. Sense: natural interfaces, projection display,
Large Quantity Information Display (LQID), ambient vs single task
driven UIs 4. Swarming: dynamic grids, ad-hoc & meshed
networks, spatial data, adaptive architecture, smart mobility &
energy services 5. Morph: identities, shapes & materials,
wearables, disposables, digestables BY NC ND 6
7. 1. Things and services: The increasing connection between
physical devices and online services will drive new applications
that take personal data and turn it into useful, personal, social,
visual and manipulable representations. With all of these personal
activities that can be measured or 'counted' (Nike+, Wattson and
Foursquare are prototypical) there is potential for a broad range
of personal and public services. 2. Physical diversification: There
will be an enormous physical diversification of connected devices.
In many cases a connected object are no longer just 'mobile' but
e-readers, cameras, music players, and household appliances all the
way up to cars, public spaces and buildings (where there is a good
reason to do so). 3. Daily data: As we begin to learn how to create
and manipulate our online 'data shadows' that are created out of
this data (cf. Mike Kuniavsky), this will have significant effects
on everyday life and on our sense of value in personal information.
The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily life that
try to influence the 'things that can be counted'. 4. Pervasive
privacy: Because of the increased visibility of everyday
activities, places, relationships, finances, health, etc. the
issues around privacy will really come to a head. Not just the 'big
brother' privacy issues that will be tested through the legal
system, but really sticky, complex social and personal privacy
issues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve (cf.
Everyware). 5. Always-on backlash: In reaction to increased,
pervasive connectivity, there must be an 'always- on backlash' en
masse. There will not just be niche communities choosing to
'opt-out', but it will become culturally, socially necessary and
desirable to be offline. The ability to gracefully disconnect and
go 'dark' must become a USP for many products and services. Timo
Arnall Design Researcher at Oslo School of Architecture and Design
@TimoArnall elasticspace.com BY NC ND 7
8. [to gracefully disconnect]
9. 1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded
Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising - and ads will become
content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years,
massively convert to mobile, location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in,
social and user-distributed 'ads'; from 1% of their their budgets
to at least 1/3 of their total advertising budget. Advertising
becomes 'ContVertising' - and Google's revenues will be 10x of what
they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video. 2.
Tablet devices will become the way many of us will 'read'
magazines, books, newspapers and even 'attend' live concerts,
conferences and events. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick
this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet
within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of
mobile augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content
industries, worldwide - but only if they can drop their mad content
protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much
larger user base. 3. Many makers of simple smart phones - probably
starting with Nokia- will make their devices available for free -
but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards)
from all transactions that are done through the devices, e.g.
banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones
become wallets, banks and ATMs. 4. Quite a few mobile phones will
not run on any particular networks, i.e. without SIM cards. The
likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer
mobile phones that will work only on Wifi / WiMax, LTE or
mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls.
This will finally wake up the mobile network operators, and force
them to really move up the food-chain - into content and the
provision of 'experiences' 5. Content will be bundled into mobile
service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile phone
/ computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or
streamed) will be included. Bundles and flat-rates - many of them
Advertising 2.0-supported - will become the primary way of
consuming, and interacting with content. First music, then books,
new and magazines, then film & TV. Gerd Leonhard Author &
Blogger, Keynote Speaker & Strategist @gleonhard
mediafuturist.com BY NC ND 9
10. 1. Web of things: an average networked pet will have a
voice, generating more data traffic than the average human 2.
Digital syllogomania: digital garbage collection becomes a (very)
lucrative business 3. Networked urbanism: mobile data warping
scandals will make us doubt on the ability to regulate urban
dynamics with data and intelligent algorithms 4. Seamful design:
opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing dense data
clouds, their scattered intelligent services and their occasional
hail of contextual information. 5. The messiness and
unpredictability of the world continue to seriously challenge any
technophilic dreams and their strategies of bordering Fabien
Girardin Researcher at Lift lab @fabiengirardin liftlab.com/ BY NC
ND 10
11. 1. Augmented reality becomes the new band wagon, with much
misinformed digital ink spilt 2. The penny starts to drop with
companies that Social Marketing Intelligence is the black gold of
the 21st Century 3. Accessing multiple dynamic data bases that are
constantly updated to deliver better enabling services begins to
transform the media industry for example creating highly accurate
3D location maps by accessing the Flickr database 4. Convergence
enables the blending of reality from online and off so there is no
distinction 5. The communications revolution accelerates destroying
businesses that refuse to think the unthinkable Alan Moore Author,
blogger, entrepreneur @alansmlxl smlxtralarge.com BY NC ND 11
12. Martin Duval CEO bluenove @bluenove bluenove.com 1. Still
to come Easy Back Up & Storage of Address Book, mobile content
and now Apps in case phone is lost, stolen or changed 2. Emotions
and social network recommendation based mobile search 3. Mobile
payment and transfer (in Europe) 4. SMS based Health & Wellness
monitoring and coaching 5. Green Tech phones and in emerging
countries, self-repairable ones 6. Mobile battery performance and
charging solutions BY NC ND 12
13. 1. Connection managers. They will become critical for
differentiation as devices will be able to handle massive data
speeds for microseconds and limited data speeds for hours; from any
available network. 2. User Interface. Mashup interfaces across
voice, touch and movement will create new experiences for getting
data into and controlling mobile devices. Open (environments) will
change the game. 3. Sensors. Mobile devices will have sensors added
which will enable the capture local data from temperature to noise
and from location to who else is in the room. 4. Business model.
Based on game changes 2 and 3, brands realize that more value is
created from the analysis of sensor data taken off the mobile
devices than from user voice or data usage analysis. Combining the
two, sensor and user data, it will be possible to generate new
business models and shareholder value. 5. Ownership of your data
footprint. Every brand wants to own you and your data. Users will
become discriminating about brands who deliver value to them and
these will be different from those who are in the mobile retail
value chain today. Trust and privacy will be at the forefront of
the user decision. www.mydigitalfootprint.com Tony Fish
Entrepreneur & strategic thinker AMF Ventures @TonyFish
tonyfish.com BY NC ND 13
14. 1. It's all about phones. 50% hardware, 50% software and
services (UI, widgets, integrated services, etc.). Apps and app
stores are important (just as platforms are), but the consumer will
see a leapfrog in devices, equivalent to BW (representing today's
featurephones) to colour (representing todays' smartphones) devices
shift. 2011, with smartphone being the mainstream device, to the
contrary, will be much less about devices and much more about apps
and services, call the "second wave of apps". 2. iPhone is into
linear growth, Android still very slow next year, generally status
quo compared to 2009. 2011 iPhone stabilizing and very fragmented
Android rapidly taking off. 3. Strong movement, lead primarily by
developers (not consumers), to open the ecosystem. 4. We will see
several app successes ($10m/yr businesses built on apps) in 2010,
but massive app successes will come in 2011/12, the industry will
see $100m/yr businesses built on apps 5. Certainly 2010 is the year
of app stores "opening". Unfortunately there's no definition of
what is "open" (every app store calls itself open, still some
reject voice/navigation, etc. apps based on their competing
business model and not on the user experience, quality or other
objective measures. But even taking to quality and other objective
measures, open for GJ means that it is the consumer decides what
quality is acceptable). 2010 will certainly see all appstores being
more open than in 2009, still in general there will still be a lot
of questions. Ilja Laurs Founder and CEO of GetJar @getjar
getjar.com BY NC ND 14
15. 1. Mobile DNA: anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile
devices will be used for hyper targeted DNA-based services (dating,
finance, education, medicine, food, sports) 2. Mobile Neurotech:
using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses,
thoughts, emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurology 3.
mHealth: using mobile sensors, bodily sensors and fungible/internal
sensors to boost mobile health lifelogging and disease
prevention/correction and boost scientific health research 4.
Internet of Things: multimedia sensors in animals, objects,
buildings and places that allow being present of everything if
needed, filtering will be biggest theme in this respect 5. Mobile
Learning and Science: mobile devices will drive permanent and
highly personalized learning (a.o. DNA based) and discovery of
important changes in the environment Yuri van Geest Co-Founder
Mobile Monday Amsterdam, Co-Organizer TEDx Amsterdam, Futurist
@vangeest mobilemonday.nl BY NC ND 15
16. [open up]
17. 1. VoIP on cell-phones+less expensive data transfer 2. The
return of curious LBS+AR applications after few years in the
through of disillusionment 3. Some (rich) people will pay to be
disconnected 4. Non-humans (objects, animals, places) will generate
more data than humans 5. Data Structure Service: services that
allow to maintain/sort/ structure all these data will gain even
more weight Nicolas Nova researcher @nicolasnova liftlab.com BY NC
ND 17
18. Raimo van der Klein CEO Layar @rhymo layar.com 1. Augmented
Reality: placing digital content literally in physical context. 2.
Indoor Smartness: indoor positioning, smart environments. 3. Vendor
Relationship Management: customers in control, people send out
RFQ's, includes barcode scanning, couponing, etc. 4. Contextual
Information Provision: Provision of information based on LIVE
information gathered through sensory input from all elements in
your context. 5. Personal Area Networks: many hardware mutants and
spinoffs. Jean Paul Sartre sat here Dont order eggs! buy tickets
now! reserved BY NC ND 18
19. 1. All urban areas offer free (or funded by tax payer)
Wimax connectivity, meaning that most people dont bother with an
operator relationship any more. Landlines are gone. 2. Mobile
overtakes the PC as the largest marketing channel, offering the
best results and tracking in the history of marketing. 3. Current
handheld form factors disappear, with interfaces being via glasses
or contact lenses, a microscopic ear piece and a device which we
can envision as a ring for the finger. Three options of viewing
will be available, Real World, Digital World and a combination of
the two ie Augmented Reality. In this Post PC Era, laptops will be
quaintly old-fashioned and unsupported commercially. 4. Mobile
product and service innovation will be greatly influenced in the
next 10 years by emerging markets, who already live in the Post PC
Era today. Education is the first vertical to be hugely impacted.
5. People still wont pay for Digital Content. Russell Buckley VP
Global Alliances AdMob & Chairman Emeritus Mobile Marketing
Association @russellbuckley mobhappy.com 19BY NC ND
20. 1. Shrinking superphone reaches 10 dollar cost; better than
iPhone of today. Moore's Law brings us ever cheaper phones so cheap
'Africa' phones and kids' phones in 2020 are better than modern top
end phones of 2010, like Nokia N900, Google Nexus and Apple iPhone
3GS. Better phones will be used at work and play, top end
'smartphones' will be embedded within humans enhancing our vision,
hearing, memory etc. 2. Mobile advertising becomes biggest ad
platform. Mobile advertising grows to become biggest ad platform
exceeding TV and internet by reach and by ad revenues. Mobile ads
mature beyond banner ads and SMS spam, become ever more compelling
and 'engaging'. Will not kill off other older media like TV, print
and internet, as each will adjust to the newest medium. 3. Half of
total economy in many countries transits mobile phone payments. The
rapid growth of mobile banking and credit will change the payments
systems of all countries. Combined with interactive ads, mobile
money will shift phone to mobile wallet with our keys and loyalty
points and identity cards. In all countries normal to get paycheck
paid to phone, in many leading m-banking countries, where
traditional banking institutions are weak like in Africa, more than
half of total economy will pass through mobile phones. 4. "Star
Trek Universal Translator' is commonplace. The early translator
utilities of today will evolve and by end of decade, all standard
phone feature near-real time 'accurate' translators in
voice-to-voice and text-to-text (and across voice/text/voice). You
point the phone at speaker in foreign language, your earpiece hears
the simultaneous translation as if UN professional translator stood
next to you. 5. Our phone becomes magical servant as concierge. The
early mobile concierge services like from Japan today evolve. As
our payments and media and calendar info is integrated, the
concierge avatar on the phone adds 'secretary', 'butler',
'accountant' and 'lawyer' functions to assist us, like Amazon today
anticipates and 'reads our minds' of what book to recommend, the
phone servant avatar in 2020 will run our lives, answer our calls,
send messages on behalf of us, order goods and services, and give
us reminders. Tomi Ahonen Author @tomiahonen tomiahonen.com 20BY NC
ND
21. 1. A device as powerful as the iPhone 3GS is today will
cost less than 100 EUR by 2016 thereby enabling a whole new
economic strata rich mobile access to the internet. 2. NFC will
drastically take off and similar to how today it's impossible to
buy a mobile phone without a camera, that point will be reached
with NFC by the tail end of the next decade. 3. Rich nations will
start seeing the number of hours people spend in front of screens
decline for the first time and the masses will limit or stop use a
certain technology or service to reconnect with the joys of
overcoming an obstacle. 4. People will pay for content again,
especially mobile content since mobile advertising takes up
valuable screen real estate, because operator billing will finally
replace the piece of plastic in your wallet. 5. Thanks to Bluetooth
and wireless display technology the mobile phone will literally be
the only computer people own. Stefan Constantinescu Editor,
Intomobile @GJCAG intomobile.com BY NC ND 21
22. [emotional recommendations]
23. 1. Over 50% of the worlds households carry a mobile device
3B+ (think about that, how cool is that, what will it mean for
societal integration) 2. Mobile internet surpasses the wireline
internet in global REACH (more people with IP connections in mobile
than PCs) 3. Mobile advertising becomes mainstream (imagine a Brand
Manager without a URL today) 4. Augmented reality and advanced LBS
services become broadscale (finally) 5. Smart Agents 2.0 (Thank you
Patty Maes) become real; the ability to deduce/impute context from
blend of usage and location data (privacy issues need to be handled
of course) Rich Wong Partner at Accel Partners @rich_wong
facebook.com/accel BY NC ND 23
24. 1. Mobile content recommendation 2. Lifestream integration
with mobile contacts lists 3. Mobile data portability and data
portability via mobile 4. Mobile commerce 5. Location-based social
networking Marshall Kirkpatrick VP of Content Development &
Lead Blogger ReadWriteWeb @marshallK readwriteweb.com BY NC ND
24
25. 1. Cheaper Data plans, more Pay As You Go Data with Global
Roaming- with LTE and WiMax bundles and buckets become like
minutes. Watch the rates start to fall as the operators need more
customers to support new capex spending and as they begin to
leverage already established networks. 2. The Network Becomes
Paramount as Devices all become Smarter With WiMax, Mobile WiMax
and WiFi-this means faster, better and cheaper data, video and
voice. Newer smart devices both diverged and converged all
proliferate, and will all compliment the 3G expansion plans and 4G
(LTE) roll outs. Connectivity becomes ubiquitous and the idea of
always on, becomes commonplace. Without a well run network, none of
this grows. 3. Mobile PBX/Nomadic Mobile Enterprise Offerings-the
largest customer market is the enterprise for mobile, yet we cant
transfer a call after almost 30 years of calling. A mobile PBX will
change all that 4. The rise of new device brands-Nokia, Ericsson
and others had a cozy ride for years with the mobile operators. Now
the rising tigers from Asia (Asus, Garmin/Acer, Huawei, ZTE will
start to encroach with better priced, more feature rich handsets,
mostly built on Android and with data at the core. Motorola rises
like a Phoenix, INQ becomes an emerging force and HTC becomes a
bigger part of the game with more operators. Unlocked handsets
become a bigger part of mix in countries where it never was a
factor. 5. Google will be a trend changer doing for mobile what
Yahoo never could achieve. Andy Abramson CEO, Comunicano, blog
author of VoIPWatch & Working Anywhere @andyabramson
andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch BY NC ND 25
26. Keyboard dimensions and screen size cease to be the primary
limiting factors in handset design as new input and display
technologies free designers to radically change the form factor of
personal communication devices. Services and content are purchased
once and accessible across all devices (PC, mobile, TV etc...) as
business models start to reflect the reality of consumer value
perception. The mobile browser becomes the main applications
platform. Smarter middleware becomes essential to mediate between
rapid growth in cloud- based media storage, inherently unreliable
wireless networks and a proliferation in access devices employed by
the user. The most successful network operators will narrow their
focus to the '3 Cs': customer service, coverage and capacity,
stepping away from large-scale portal, application and media
development efforts. Marek Pawlowski Founder, MEX Mobile User
Experience Conference @marekpawlowski pmn.co.uk/mex/ BY NC ND
26
27. 1. Just as microprocessors have been built into virtually
every product that has a power source, over the next ten years, it
will become expected that wireless connectivity will be built into
virtually every product that has a microprocessor. 2. Businesses
will redefine virtually every internal process and virtually every
service they offer customers to leverage wireless access to
information and contextual data to create new value for customers,
to grow their addressable markets, and to reduce their operating
costs. 3. Fixed line broadband will overshoot the performance needs
of the market, resulting in increasing data cord cutting as
individuals, families, and businesses appreciate the value of
mobility more than the value of excess bandwidth. 4. By the end of
the decade, mobile devices will be thought of first for the
applications they run rather than for their ability to make voice
calls. 5. In the U.S., the Obama administration will stimulate
significant expansion of the mobile market through regulatory
policies (e.g. reduced backhaul costs) and direct and indirect
stimulus investments (e.g. wireless broadband, smart grid). Russ
McGuire VP, Strategy, Sprint Nextel @mcguireslaw mcguireslaw.com/
BY NC ND 27
28. 1. The #1 trend for me for the next decade will be
ubiquity: everybody will have mobile data access. People in
developing nations will get online on mobiles before they do on
PCs; and in developed nations, mobile data use will become the norm
for all users. 2. Tools that help people manage their constant
connectivity will be in great demand. 3. The mobile phone will
evolve into an enabler device, carrying users' digital identities,
preferences and possessions around with them. 4. Advanced mobile
phone technology will become a commodity, and form will take
precedence over function. 5. Privacy and protection of identity
will create huge conflicts in many societies. Carlo Longino Blogger
at Mobhappy @caaarlo mobhappy.com BY NC ND 28
29. [watch your data shadow]
30. 1. Distribution of sms-equipped and then increasingly smart
phones in the developing world. 2. The use of environmental and
biomedical sensors in conjunction with mobile communication media.
3. Augmented reality. 4. Mobile Social Software. Howard Rheingold
Author of Smart Mobs @hrheingold rheingold.com BY NC ND 30
31. 1. As phones get smarter, pipes get dumber. In the era of
app stores and handset makers launching their own
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, mobile carriers will
continue to struggle with the issue of who 'owns' the customer.
Terrified of becoming a dumb pipe reduced to selling commodity
voice and data services, some will try to innovate with their own
SaaS products, most of which will fail, while the smartest players
will partner and invest in innovate startups. That said, as the
pipes get increasingly clogged up carrying all of this data, and
with the advent of 4G, networks will start to focus on and
highlight their competitiveness based on infrastructure and
capacity alone. 2. Your phone will become your doctor. Mobile
phones are already the ubiquitous mobile device and, increasingly,
provide a ubiquitous Internet connection. Just like the best camera
is the one that you have with you, more and more hardware
functionality, such as innovative input devices and sensors,
combined with software and a data connection will piggyback the
mobile phone, rather than try to compete as a separate device.
Health care will be a major benefactor. 3. Money transfer beyond
mobile banking. The mobile phone will replace your wallet. Not only
will you be able to manage your money via your mobile phone and use
it to pay for products in authorized retail outlets both online and
offline, but mobile money transfer will extend to peer-to-peer.
Everyone will become a walking 'cash' register. 4. Battery
technology will finally catch up. The combination of new types of
battery technology and less power hungry chips will lead to mobile
phones, even under the strain of all of this new hardware, software
and data functionality, being able to stay powered up for more than
a day. Perhaps days. Evidenced by the recent Netbook phenomenon,
with 7+ hours becoming the norm for a low cost 10inch laptop. 5.
People will share more and more personal information. Both explicit
e.g. photo and video uploads or status updates, and implicit data.
Location sharing via GPS (in the background) is one current example
of implicit information that can be shared, but others include
various sensory data captured automatically via the mobile phone
e.g. weather, traffic and air quality conditions, health and
fitness-related data, spending habits etc. Some of this information
will be shared privately and one-to-one, some anonymously and in
aggregate, and some increasingly made public or shared with a
user's wider social graph. Companies will provide incentives, both
at the service level or financially, in exchange for users sharing
various personal data. Steve O'Hear Editor, last100 / Contributing
Editor, TechCrunch Europe | @sohear | last100.com BY NC ND 31
32. 1. Device makers will continue to drive the mobile industry
and operators will become more traditional service providers
competing on cost and network quality. 2. Brands will use apps to
drive hundreds of millions of dollars in sales. Apps will become a
core revenue generator for businesses. 3. Location will become THE
core technology to mobile devices. It will become more ubiquitous
on the device than any other feature. nearly every user interaction
with mobile devices will become location aware. 4. Location based
advertising will explode. The classic starbucks example will be
forgotten. That starbucks example is driven by a mindset stuck in
the web - pop-up ads, banner ads. Apps and the mobile web will be
location aware, and most mobile advertising will be informed and
targeted by location. 5. Venture capitalists will begin to make
major strategic investments in mobile app companies in 2010 (like
the 2009 investments in Shazam, Smule, etc). Big brands will
acquire small apps that enhance their product offering (eg Amazon
& SnapTell) Ted Morgan CEO Skyhook Wireless @tedmorgan
skyhookwireless.com BY NC ND 32
33. 1. Cellular voice dies -- it truly becomes another form of
data on next generation data networks 2. Location awareness --
devices truly leverage location and tie together our tasks with our
current location 3. Voice recognition -- moves from niche usage to
a mainstream input option 4. Connectivity lines blur -- devices and
apps will seamlessly function offline nearly as well as online 5.
Handhelds -- fewer laptops will be carried as more capable handheld
devices will mature Kevin C. Tofel Managing Editor at jkOnTheRun, a
GigaOM network site covering mobile technology @KevinCTofel
jkOnTheRun.com BY NC ND 33
34. 1. Convergence of virtual and physical payments: mobile
payments will significantly replace physical currency. Within this
trend I predict the replication of financial services from the
past, onto cloud- based systems that can be managed by mobile
devices, be they loans, savings, payments and transfers. 2.
Convergence of mobile network and data services: IP technology will
replace the need for cell towers. Within this trend I predict that
ISP and web based services (including Google) will inherit the
current subscribers of many mobile networks of today. 3.
Convergence of utility payment: our payment for services will move
away from separate contracts from service providers, to combined
solutions placing data alongside gas, electricity and water. I
predict single subscriptions to data services from commodity
suppliers, supplemented with personalisation tools that suit our
precise requirements at any given moment. 4. Convergence of mobile
and online platforms: the emergence of personal, unified cloud-
based platforms that are accessible from any machine and screen. 5.
Convergence of physical, augmented and virtual reality: augmented
and virtual reality will become an increasingly standard method for
search, discovery, gaming, eyesight, healthcare, retail,
entertainment and most other experiences in life. Location and
other contextual functions will grow so our 2D mobile experiences
become 3D and 'real'. To such an extent that the prefixes
'augmented' and 'virtual' will eventually become redundant.
Jonathan MacDonald Founder, JME @jmacdonald jme.net BY NC ND
34
35. [mobile social development]
36. 1. Mobiles manifesting AI - fulfilling, at last, the vision
of "personal digital assistants" 2. Powerful, easily wearable
head-mounted accessories: audio, visual, and more 3. Mobiles as
gateways into vivid virtual reality - present-day AR is just the
beginning 4. Mobiles monitoring personal health - the second brains
of our personal networks 5. Mobiles as universal remote controls
for life - a conductor's baton as much as a viewing portal David
Wood Principal at Delta Wisdom @dw2 dw2blog.com/ BY NC ND 36
37. Mobile Networks: Imagine mobile networks without voice
services. The switch from 3g standards into all IP network
infrastructure (4g) will turn mobile operators to broadband
providers, decrease the revenues of cable companies, increase
profits of voip services and spawn a new range of mobile services,
mobile apps and even mobile devices. Mobile Internet: Internet
usage through mobile devices will overtake desktop/pc usage based
on massive adaptation of mobile internet in the developing world.
Mobile Payment: the mobile is the credit card. Mobile
Entertainment: Games, Music and Movies will find new formats on
mobile devices especially through the rise of augmented reality
technology. A handful of startups in this sector will manage to
attract significant audiences. Mobile Hub: Laptop schlepping will
be over cause your phone will fulfill your computing needs.
Smartphones will become as powerful as laptops and take over the
laptop and notebook market. With an increasing number of
peripherals from keyboards to displays to 3d glasses the mobile
will become the power processor of your life. Don't loose it!
Michael Breidenbruecker ceo RjDj @byzo rjdj.me 01:23:51
01:23:49finish line BY NC ND 37
38. 1. Use cases: Phones are the primary computer and tool for
connecting and sharing with friends (= more email or messages
initiated from mobile phones to friends (not work) than from
computer or netbooks) 2. Network: Wifi deployed widely (everywhere:
at home, in restaurants, in the street, etc.) 3. Platforms:
consolidation of platforms, may be only 2 or 3 gather 80% of units
shipped 4. Hardware: significant advance in batteries Henri
Moissinac head of mobile, Facebook @moissinac facebook.com BY NC ND
38
39. 1. The Operator Dichotomy: Mobile operators will clearly
separate into service companies (service pipes) and access
companies (bit pipes). Very few multi-nationals will control assets
to both services and access. 2. OEMs as the service inventory
brokers: Handset OEMs will move to exploit one of their few unique
strengths; service distribution inventory on-device and therefore
monetise from retailing and managing services at point-of-purchase
and during in-life use. 3. Application Mega-retailing: Retailing
and merchandising of mobile apps will evolve in terms of
segmentation, regionalisation and sophistication, and far more so
than mobile phone retailing. A large chunk of the money in apps
will go towards distribution and retailing, much like the book
business is today. 4. Service Analytics: The Most Underhyped
opportunity. Comprehensive analytics on devices, services, networks
and users will create major new revenue streams; from monetising
competitive intelligence to spawning new revenue models such as
OEMs being paid based on device performance. 5. Open Source
Economics Mastered: Multi-billion firms will realise that
'influence is power' in the world of open source and will either
acquire the small 10-strong professional services firms or re-
orient their business culture towards upstream tribes, rather than
downstream troops. Andreas Constantinou Ph.D., Research Director,
VisionMobile @andreascon visionmobile.com/blog BY NC ND 39
40. 1. The mobile lifestyle truly goes beyond "carrying a
mobile handset all the time". The next decade will see the first
true always-on/connected generation - "99% messaging, media and
entertainment, 1% voice"-kind of mobile users. Mobile usage drivers
are as follows: 1) (people-to-people) messaging, very media and
social in nature including text, MMS, real-time web and social
networks, 2) media photos, video and music, gaming, 3) info/search
or queries, 4) voice. Voice usage will be very minimal when
compared to messaging, and messaging and media go hand-in-hand with
media usage driven by personal messaging. 2. Control totally shifts
from the MNO and into the ecosystem. MNOs become a positive member
of and contributor to the ecosystem and the developer community.
The MNO extends and offers their mobile/wireless infrastructure as
services on the Internet (Infrastructure as a Services). 3.
Wireless networks reaches sufficient speeds and efficiencies that
minimizes and almost eliminate most of the connection latencies
that currently degrades the mobile web usage experience, resulting
in an increased positive perception of mobile web and allowing for
mobile web applications that complement and/or rival local/native
mobile apps. HSPA+ becomes the predominant type of wireless network
during the first half of the decade with LTE on the later part.
Data plans go from unlimited pricing, to handset- specific (attempt
to maximize revenue) pricing and tiered-pricing (to force users to
use less data), back to unlimited (once networks become more
efficient). 4. Distribution is 80% Smart-phones and 20%
Feature-phones, worldwide. Feature-phones have 80% of Smart-phone
characteristics. Even in emerging regions such as Africa the
business models is figured out to allow for "data" to take off; but
it will take to the end of the decade for this. Most device
manufacturers trying to copy Apple introduce their own OSes only to
fail and instead go with Android due to economics - by leveraging
Google's R&D and BOM, are able to deliver a complete platform
from OS, developer and ecosystem support in the most cost-effective
way. Fragmentation problem continues from apps to web but reduced
to a small number of platforms. Java ME focuses on Feature-phones.
HTML and scripting with the browser/web-runtimes and handset APIs
evolve and get standardized allowing for web applications that when
combined with fast networks truly rival and/or complement local/
native applications. App Stores offer both local/native and mobile
web apps. There are many App Stores which are easily discovered and
selected by users which app store to use becomes a
user-preference/choice. 5. Messaging becomes the top application.
Search/queries and apps in general benefit from the digital and
physical worlds merging together, thanks to the mobile handset;
awareness of our surroundings via proximity and other sensors such
as geo-location allows for high-definition user-context.
Super-imposition of information on top of real word imagery
(Augmented Reality) and interactions with physical objects via the
handset (to learn more about such objects) becomes a common tool
and exercise. AR becomes standardized and absorbed into the web
browser as a View, similar to today's "street vs. map view". We
start to see the initial phase of the 5th screen, "visors" that
work together with the mobile handset extending digital
augmentation from the handset screen (the 4th screen) onto
"eye-glasses" (the 5th screen). The handset is the personal
gateway, between personal sensors and services and applications and
to the Internet. The hybrid application (80% local driving richness
and experience and 20% generic/related web-based information)
becomes the standard mobile app design pattern. C. Enrique Ortiz
Mobile Technologist, blogger | @eortiz | cenriqueortiz.com BY NC ND
40
41. [hackable devices]
42. 1. 5x more sensors in everyday life; combination of
wearable sensors, remote sensors and sensors in your phone 2.
Operators build and market their own mobile devices competing with
OEMs 3. Wireless charging becomes the standard and is available
everywhere 4. Your super-modular mobile phone will be powered by a
cloud based OS 5. You will travel to go to a no-airwaves National
Park; the first cellular reserve Raj Singh Mobile Enthusiast
@raazzzin rajansingh.com BY NC ND 42
43. 1. Web4 Metadata for All Data: Mobile transforms the Web
into Web4: billions of mobile devices as sensors in a sensor
network connect the Web to real people (Who), places (Where),
objects (What), and times (When), analyzable into vectors of
attention, interests, activities, and events. The masses of global
data are no longer abstract bits in databases, but are made
intelligible with real world metadata about the contexts in which
they are produced, shared, consumed, and transformed. 2.
MyWorld/OurWorld/TheirWorld: Web4 transforms our relationship to
the world, each other, and ourselves. As every physical entity
(person, place, object) becomes connected and programmable, and
every digital entity is contextualized and can communicate with the
real world, the now visible and permanent accretions of human
attention and activity transform how we communicate with each other
and understand the world around us. We see the datasphere mapped
onto the world, and the world as it exists in the Web, from our own
personalized point of view, from that of our friends and those we
follow, and from the vantage point of others we do not know, and at
scales from personal, to social, to global. The mobile phone is a
prosthetic connecting us to our collective embodied intelligence in
real time and across time and space: large scale information
filtering, summarization, discovery, and recommendation become
basic modes of engagement with ourselves, each other, and the
world. 3. Mobile Transforms Global Business: Commerce is
transformed as every place, object, person, and process is embedded
in Web4. Mobile commerce becomes long tail, real time, and real
world on a global scale. Location-awareness, mobile social
networks, mobile transactions, and the Internet of Things bring
about a new industrial revolution. Business processes are
reengineered as mobile sensing, communication, and processing make
supply and the organization of labor and markets real time,
contextual, and adaptive. Human, computational, and physical
resources can be assembled and integrated in real time to solve
problems and create value: context-aware mobile sensors/effectors,
crowdsourcing, smart mobs, and chains social networks are seen as
the new drivers of value production. 4. The World Sees and Hears
Itself: The Web and we get eyes and ears at global scale: billions
of mobile phones with sensors and HD and 3D imaging, audio, and
video combined with large scale real time filtering, communication,
and recommendation technology transform news, entertainment,
communication, education, work, and play. We create and use
collective maps of human attention, interest, and activity in real
time mapped to an ever-evolving 4 dimensional model of the world:
the Web of the World. Billions of mobile media datastreams indexed
and correlated with Web4 metadata show us and connect us to what is
happening, has happened, and may happen all over the world. 5. User
Data Banking: If user data is the currency of the information
economy, then where are the banks? By 2020, mobile data and
transactions connected to Web4 metadata create massive new value by
radically transforming our ability to understand where and when who
is interested in what. Given regulatory and societal pressures, the
ownership and control of user data is placed in our hands. We gain
control of what we make and do online and in the world. New legal
and technical structures change the terms of service for the mobile
ecosystem bringing about a range of new value creation and services
based on the ownership, control, aggregation, and exchange of
personal data (e.g., searches, interests, location, communications,
social media, transactions, health data, etc.) by users and trusted
intermediaries. Marc Davis Chief Scientist and Co-Founder,
Invention Arts | @marcedavis | inventionarts.com BY NC ND 43
44. 1. Unofficial currencies gain power. 2. Login will replace
SIM cards. 3. Some nations will grant its people the right to a
cellphone. 4. Appearance of a massively destructive synchronized
mobile virus. 5. North Korea will join the Web. David Harper
Co-founder & CEO, PercentMobile @davidharper percentmobile.com
44BY NC ND
45. 1. mobile web traffic surpasses desktop web traffic 2.
mobile apps revenue surpasses desktop apps revenue 3. augmented
reality becomes standard 4. no more mobile screen it becomes
contact lenses, embedded in reading/ sunglasses or projected on
walls and objects 5. we finally solve the battery life issue and
mobiles can stay up for a week of intense use Loic Le Meur Founder
& CEO of Seesmic / Founder of LeWeb.net conference / blogger
@loic seesmic.com BY NC ND 45
46. [no airwaves]
47. 1. Smart grids 2. Tradeoff of mobile information vs privacy
vs services 3. Innovation from emerging markets 4. 3D content
driven by movies like avatar 5. 'open' including net neutrality
Ajit Jaokar founder futuretext @AjitJaokar futuretext.com BY NC ND
47
48. 1. Mobiles and Netbooks begin their world domination path
as browser- driven apparatuses 2. Home apps like tv programming and
other wired appliances are operated from mobiles in big scale 3.
Android takes over iPhone as its cloud features embrace social web
better than apple 4. Mobile advertising revenues dent internet ad
revenues by end of year. It is a business very much rolling out. 5.
U.S. mobile startups attempt conquering mother mobile homeland,
europe. Inma Martinez entrepreneur, investor, strategist
@inma_martinez stradbrokeadvisors.com 48BY NC ND
49. 1. Ubiquity of mobile broadband will lead to an explosion
of connected devices ( la Kindle, not just phones) and M2M services
(machines to machine services, without a human behind the device).
In 10 year, more devices/machines connected to the mobile network
than humans 2. Truly context aware mobile computing, where the
context is far richer than just location and personalization and
recommendations are ubiquitous 3. Convergence of desktop and mobile
web into one web, everything moving to the cloud and the end of
native mobile applications and applications stores 4. Explosion of
mobile video applications including mobile video communications 5.
Augmented reality and mixed reality services/applications:
pervasive services that seamlessly combine the physical and digital
World Carlos Domingo Director of Internet and Multimedia &
Director of the Barcelona R&D center at Telefonica
@carlosdomingo unpocodetodo.com BY NC ND 49
50. Micro Manage. Micro-payments and proximity-based bartering
replace traditional revenue streams. Beyond Barcoding. RFID and
embedded personal tagging bring big brother home. Observe,
Conserve. Devices track and manage energy and consumption using
home automation and personal tracking. A Mass-ing Data: Personal
devices sense and report real-time services from emotion to
temperature, shopping and more. i Synch, therefore I am: Human
synching to self allows any device within proximity to
automatically personalize. Objective: Object-oriented "personal
packets" of data become the norm as identity and privacy are the #1
focus. Kelly Goto Principal Gotomedia @go2girl gotomedia.com BY NC
ND 50
51. 1. A Web OS based hackable phone will give you access to
everything using Web Tech - The Palm Pre has been the Grandfather.
Look for the release of the OVI Apps SDK to be released this year.
2. 3D Displays - Its SciFi, its happening and you wont look like an
idiot wearing your 3D glasses watching Avatar. 3. The Cloud moves
to the edge. Not every media item that is produced on the phone can
and will be pushed back to the cloud but instead stays on your or
somebody else's phones Terabyte HDD. 4. Mobile Payment. Its coming
and its coming hard. Think mobile2mobile payment. Paypal for your
mobile phone. 5. Connected phones packed with sensors and crunching
power will disrupt all kinds of sensor-based business models -
Think Weather Prediction, Traffic probing, Pollution sensing, etc.
pp. Felix Petersen Head of Social Activities PM at Nokia / Founder
at Plazes.com @fiahless plazes.com BY NC ND 51
52. [pervasive privacy]
53. 1. App Stores will start to support applications for
Embedded Devices - In 2010 we will see the emergence of
applications for set-top boxes, netbooks, refrigerators, car
navigation systems etc. Selected app stores will support these
applications. 2. Decline of Native App Store Development - By 2011
native application development for app stores will start losing
importance. 3. Carriers & Data - By 2013 the market of
consumers willing to pay "more" for mobile internet data plans will
reach saturation. 4. Mobile & Gaming - By 2014 browser-based
gaming on embedded devices - including mobile - will have displaced
much of the current console market in the Western World. 5. Mobile
& TV/Home Entertainment - By 2016 browser-based
entertainment/TV devices - relying on search - will have displaced
television as the focal living room device in most of the Western
World. Matthaus Krzykowski Editor, VentureBeat @matthausk
venturebeat.com 53BY NC ND
54. More fluid use of input mechanisms beyond the keyboard.
We're seeing this right now with Google Goggles, Voice Search, AR
(which is about location+bearing+camera), but what about proximity,
use of ambient sound, time-of-day, etc? Mobile as prime means of
access online. Mind you I said this 10 years ago. Improved power
distribution: boring but necessary, battery technology needs to get
much better to support more capable devices, or we'll start to see
new ways to power handsets. Bandwidth gets higher; who knows what
we'll do with it, but it'll happen. Lots of second-order effects of
mobile on society. No-one predicted the loosening of time and space
that Mimi Ito has noted. Similarly, what happens to our social
arrangements when every photo can be face-recognised, geolocated
and individuals tracked? What happens to shops when every price can
be compared? What happens to conversation when it's all recorded,
or any fact is a 5-second voice-search away from being checked? Tom
Hume Managing Director of Future Platforms @twhume tomhume.org/ BY
NC ND 54
55. 1. Visual search - point your mobile phone camera and
retrieve contextual information anywhere of anything 2. New sonic
experiences - Augmented reality, 3D sound, will create new mobile
audio formats and end user experiences 3. Mobile social networks -
social media designed specifically for mobile use 4. Mobile
reception in airplanes will allow not just voice but will be the
in-flight Internet access solution 5. Convergence and integration -
ISP's, fixed line providers, and mobile operators offering
convergence packages, integrated pricing structures, and reformed
roaming fee regimes Atau Tanaka Director of Culture Lab @atautanaka
ataut.net BY NC ND 55
56. 1. Mobile Augmented Reality (via wearable displays) 2.
Ubiquitous Computing (everything wired) 3. Artificial Life +
Intelligent Agents (holographic personalities) 4. Personal
Biometric Sensors (cyborg 101) 5. Patent, Privacy, and Property
Wars (system breakdown) Robert Rice CEO Neogence Enterprises
@robertrice curiousraven.com BY NC ND 56
57. Wow - time to take a deep breath - and get involved!
58. ...is this where we want to go? join the conversation:
#m2020 BY NC ND Take a look at some of the concepts we found
striking... 58
59. 3D 3D content 3D displays 3D sound advanced batteries all
IP network infrastructure ambient intelligence android rules app
convergence application mega-retailing apps apps & services
apps everywhere apps for embedded devices artificial intelligence
artificial life augmented reality back-up & storage bluetooth
implants browser-based entertainment browser-based gaming business
disruption bye bye CDMA challenging technophilic dreams cheaper
data complex data sharing take a look yourself! real-time
cocreation rise of new device brands sense networks service
analytics service bundling service pipes smart agents 2.0 smart
grids smart phones everywhere smart pipes smarter middleware social
marketing intelligence software-as-a-service (SaaS) swarm tablet
devices terabyte HDD truely connected users tv apps (remote
control) ubiquitous connectivity universal remote control vendor
relationship management visual search voice recognition voip wifi
deployment connected objects connection managers context aware
mobile computing contextual information provision contvertising
(content advertising) convergence of mobile network and data
services convergence of utility payment cross-platform services
data footprint ownership data shadows data structure services
Decline of Native App Store Development digital syllogomania
disconnectivity documented radiation & brain damage driving
locks embedded devices (TV/gaming consoles) emotional
recommendations enabling new economy environmental monitoring
explosion of mobile video apps free devices free networks google
green phones hackable devices health monitoring HSPA+ / LTE indoor
smartness in-flight internet access infrastructure a as Services
innovation in developing countries intelligent agents internet of
things lifeflow location based advertising location-aware objects
location-awareness tasks location-based social networking
mainstream mobile advertising mashup interfaces messaging rules
mixed reality mobile advertising goes mainstream mobile browser
rules mobile commerce mobile contacts lifestream integration mobile
content recommendation mobile data portability mobile elections
mobile information tradeoff mobile political campaign mobile social
development mobile social networks mobile social software mobile
wallet more mobile IP than PC morph multiple dynamic data nano
networked urbanism new business models new input & display
technologies next 3 billion nomadic enterprises non-human data
oneweb open ecosystem open source business models patent, privacy,
and property wars (system breakdown) personal area networks
personal biometric sensors pervasive computing pervasive privacy
platform consolidation premium content primary computer privacy
& protection conflicts
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