Keep calm and carry onThe Deloitte Consumer TrackerQ1 2019
Contents
*Net balances
Previous
Latest
-9%-8%
Overall consumer confidence (q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-21%-16%
Confidence inlevels of disposable income (q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-6%-2%
Confidence in levels of debt (q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-7%-6%
Confidence in job security (q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-3%-5%
Confidence in job opportunities (q/q)*
Consumer confidence
Deloitte consumer confidence index 04
Individual measures of confidence: 05
Household disposable income 06
Levels of debt 07
Job security 08
Job opportunities and career progression 09
General health and wellbeing 10
Children’s education and welfare 11
The wider economy’s impact on consumers
Falling inflation and rising wages, bolstered 13 confidence in personal finances
UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975 14Consumer borrowing rises at slowest rate 15 since 2014
Modest increase of the savings ratio 16
Consumer spending
Essential vs discretionary spending 18
Inflation by category 19
Consumer spending by category 20
Retail sales 21
Car registrations 23
Essential vs discretionary spending outlook 24
Consumer spending by category outlook 25
The last word 26
The last, last word 27
Authors 28
Q1 2019 at a glance
Consumer confidence
03
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Deloitte consumer confidence index*
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Annual moving average
UK consumer confidence edged up by one percentage point to -8 from -9 in Q4 2018.Positive economic news helped to restore confidence. However, confidence remains close to one-and-a-half year low suggesting that it will take longer and will require greater certainty around Brexit, for the positive economic news to restore confidence to previous levels.
*�The�Deloitte�consumer�confidence�index�is�an�average�of�the�net�%�of�consumers�who�said�their�level�of�confidence�improved�in�the�past�three�months�for�six�individual�measures�of�confidence�(see�next�slide).
04
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Our overall confidence index is based on six individual measures of confidence
Individual measures of consumer confidence
Levels of debt
Job opportunities/career progression
General health and wellbeing
Job security
Children’s education and welfare
Current Q1 2019net balances*
% point change quarter-on-quarter
Q4 2018
% point change year-on-year
Q1 2018
Household disposable income
+4 -2
+1 -2
-2 -3
+2 -1
-2 -5
+5 -2-16%
-2%
-6%
-5%
-15%
-3%
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker*see definition of ‘net balance’ on page 28 under ‘a note on the methodology’
05
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer confidence about their household levels of disposable income
Confidence in levels of disposable income grew by five percentage points compared with the previous quarter. Falling inflation, rising real wages and unemployment at historical low have bolstered consumers’ confidence in their personal finances. In particular, improved sentiment about levels of disposable income suggests that wages rising at their fastest pace for a decade in 2018 are starting to have a positive impact on consumers.
Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their levels of household disposable income has improved in the past three months
-44-40-36-32-28-24-20-16-12
-8-40
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Annual moving average
06
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer confidence about their levels of debt
Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their levels of debt has improved in the past three months
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Annual moving average
Sentiment about levels of debt grew by four percentage points compared with the previous quarter. This coincided with household borrowing easing, as consumers became more measured in their borrowing. Consumer spending has been fuelling UK growth since June 2016 as consumers borrowed more or dipped into their savings at a time when real wages were not growing. Hence this slowdown in borrowing raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending.
07
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer confidence about job security
The strength of the labour market also drove up consumers’ confidence in job security. Job security saw a one-percentage-point increase this quarter.
Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their job security has improved in the past three months
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Annual moving average
08
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer confidence about job opportunities
Consumer confidence about job opportunities falls.A two-percentage-point fall in sentiment about job opportunities and career progression highlights that concerns about a possible weakening of the job market post-Brexit remain.
Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their job opportunities and their career progression has improved in the past three months
-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Annual moving average
09
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer confidence about their general health and wellbeing
Consumers were more confident about their general health and wellbeing this quarter.Consumer confidence in their general health and wellbeing rose by two percentage points quarter-on-quarter from -17% to -15% in Q4 2018.
Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their general health and wellbeing has improved in the past three months
-20
-18-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-20
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Annual moving average
10
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer confidence about their children’s education and welfare
Sentiment about children’s education and welfare continues to fall this quarter.Consumer confidence in their children’s education and welfare fell by two percentage points this quarter.
Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their children s education and welfare has improved in the past three months
-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Annual moving average
11
The wider economy and its impact on consumer confidence
12
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Falling inflation and rising wages, bolstered confidence in personal finances
Improved sentiment about levels of disposable income suggests that wages rising at their fastest pace for a decade in 2018 are starting to have a positive impact on consumers. Adjusting for the effects of inflation, wages were 1.5 per cent higher by the end of 2018 than the previous year.-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CPI Inflation vs average earnings (inc. bonuses) (year-on-year % growth)
Source: Thomson Reuters
CPI inflation Average earnings including bonuses
Mar
200
9Au
g 20
09Ja
n 20
10Ju
n 20
10N
ov 2
010
Apr
2011
Sep
2011
Feb
2012
Jul 2
012
Dec
201
2M
ay 2
013
Oct
201
3M
ar 2
014
Aug
2014
Jan
2015
Jun
2015
Nov
201
5Ap
r 20
16Se
p 20
16Fe
b 20
17Ju
l 201
7D
ec 2
017
May
201
8O
ct 2
018
Mar
201
9
13
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975
Britain is experiencing a booming labour market.Unemployment is at a 44-year low (3.9 per cent in the three months to January) as employers ramped up hiring at the fastest rate in more than three years. However, there are concerns about a possible weakening of the job market post-Brexit. Deloitte’s survey of UK Chief Financial Officers shows that around half (53 per cent) of CFOs also expect to reduce hiring due to Brexit – the highest level in more than two years.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
UK unemployment rate (all aged 16 and over)
Dec
200
8Ap
r 20
09Au
g 20
09D
ec 2
009
Apr
2010
Aug
2010
Dec
201
0Ap
r 20
11Au
g 20
11D
ec 2
011
Apr
2012
Aug
2012
Dec
201
2Ap
r 20
13M
ay 2
013
Dec
201
3Ap
r 20
14Au
g 20
14D
ec 2
014
Apr
2015
Aug
2015
Dec
201
5Ap
r 20
16Au
g 20
16D
ec 2
016
Apr
2017
Aug
2017
Dec
201
7Ap
r 20
18Au
g 20
18D
ec 2
018
Source: Thomson Reuters
14
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer borrowing rises at slowest rate since 2014
UK consumer credit growth cools to lowest rate in 4 years.Although UK household debt remains historically high, the annual rate of consumer credit growth fell to its slowest rate for four years during 2018. UK consumer borrowing helped to sustain the economy after the Brexit vote as savings ratios fell to historic lows, however the appetite for further spending could diminish as households rebuild their savings and house price growth slows.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unsecured lending to individuals
Source: Thomson Reuters
UK consumer credit – Net unsecured lending to individual (% year-on-year)
Feb
2009
Jul 2
009
Dec
200
9M
ay 2
010
Oct
201
0M
ar 2
011
Aug
2011
Jan
2012
Jun
2012
Nov
201
2Ap
r 20
13Se
p 20
13Fe
b 20
14Ju
l 201
4D
ec 2
014
May
201
5O
ct 2
015
Mar
201
6Au
g 20
16Ja
n 20
17Ju
n 20
17N
ov 2
017
Apr
2018
Sep
2018
Feb
2019
15
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Modest increase of the savings ratio
Consumers are also starting to rebuild their savings.Still low by historical standards, the household savings ratio – which estimates the amount of money households have available to save as a percentage of their total disposable income – increased modestly to 4.2 per cent for 2018 from a record low of 3.9 per cent in 2017, in a sign that families are gradually getting back on their feet.
2
4
6
8
10
12
UK household savings ratio
Source: Thomson Reuters
Q4
2007
Q2
2008
Q4
2008
Q2
2009
Q4
2009
Q2
2010
Q4
2010
Q2
2011
Q4
2011
Q2
2012
Q4
2012
Q2
2013
Q4
2013
Q2
2014
Q4
2014
Q2
2015
Q4
2015
Q2
2016
Q4
2016
Q2
2017
Q4
2017
Q2
2018
Q4
2018
16
Consumer spending
17
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Essential vs discretionary spending
This quarter, while consumers have maintained their levels of spending in the essential categories, they have started to reduce their expenditure in some of the more discretionary categories. Overall, net spending on essentials remained flat (at 12 per cent) but discretionary spending was down five percentage points (to -6 per cent from -1) compared to the previous quarter. This drop in spending in discretionary categories was partly due to the seasonal effect following the Christmas golden quarter.
Net % UK consumers spending more by category in the last three months
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Essential Annual moving average Discretionary Annual moving average
18
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Inflation edged up to 1.9% in March 2019
CPI inflation by category (% change y/y)
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Clothing & footwear
Miscellaneous goods & services
Furn, HH equipment & repair of the house
Food & non-alcoholic beverages
Housing, water & fuels
Health
Hotels, cafes & restaurants
Transport
Education
Recreation & culture
Communication
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco & narcotics
Total inflation
3.0%
Source: Thomson Reuters
March 2018March 2019
1.9%2.5%
5.2%3.5%3.7%
-0.4%2.7%
3.3%3.1%
2.8%3.3%
3.0%2.8%
2.5%
2.8%2.5%
1.2%2.1%
0.8%
0.6%2.5%
0.6%-0.1%
-2.0%3.9%
UK inflation rate was stable at 1.9 per cent in March unchanged from February.A slowdown in the cost of food offset a rise in petrol and clothes prices, according to official data.Inflation was lower than expected in March but is set to rise further over the next couple of months given a planned lift in the utility price cap in April and increasing food prices due to higher import costs.
19
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Consumer spending in the last three months
This drop in spending in discretionary categories was partly due to the seasonal effect following the Christmas golden quarter.However, the year-on-year fall in spending seen on discretionary items was more pronounced indicating a more cautious consumer attitude to spending in non-essential categories. Spending on some essentials categories such as housing, transport or utilities was up this quarter but that rise was offset by a fall in grocery spending which slowed this quarter as sign of consumers trading down or buying less.
Net % UK consumers spending more by category over the last three months
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Going out
Alcoholic beverages and tobaccoClothing and footwear
Restaurants and hotelsFurniture and homeware
Electrical equipmentMajor household appliances
EducationHolidays (long break)
HealthPensions and insurance
Landline/mobile phone, internetand cable/TV subscriptions
TransportHousing
Grocery shoppingUtility bills
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q4 2018Q1 2019 Q1 2018
Mor
e sp
endi
ng
Less
spe
ndin
g
20
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Retail sales (excl. fuel NSA)
Source: Thomson Reuters
% change in volume and value year-on-year
Volume Value
Mar
200
9Ju
n 20
09Se
p 20
09D
ec 2
009
Mar
201
0Ju
n 20
10Se
p 20
10D
ec 2
010
Mar
201
1Ju
n 20
11Se
p 20
11D
ec 2
011
Mar
201
2Ju
n 20
12Se
p 20
12D
ec 2
012
Mar
201
3Ju
n 20
13Se
p 20
13D
ec 2
013
Mar
201
4Ju
n 20
14Se
p 20
14D
ec 2
014
Mar
201
5Ju
n 20
15Se
p 20
15D
ec 2
015
Mar
201
6Ju
n 20
16Se
p 20
16D
ec 2
016
Mar
201
7Ju
n 20
17Se
p 20
17D
ec 2
017
Mar
201
8Ju
n 20
18Se
p 20
18D
ec 2
018
Mar
201
9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Annual moving average Annual moving average
21
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Retail sales (excl. fuel NSA) (continued)
Sales growth defies expectationsOur Tracker results contrast with exceptionally strong retail sales in March when sales rose by 4.4 per cent compared to a year earlier*. On a quarterly basis UK consumers bought 3.9 per cent more than in the same period of 2018, according to the Office for National Statistics. The bounce back in March was due to strong increases in food and clothes sales following the milder weather as well as stronger online sales.
Q1 2019:
Retail�sales�(excl.�fuel) +3.9%�y-o-yOnline sales +12.0%�y-o-yStore�sales�(excl.�fuel) +2.2%�y-o-y
52.8%�of�the�growth�came�from�online�(£1.8bn�out�of�£3.4bn).
*In our analysis we use retail sales value data excluding fuel on a non seasonally adjusted basis
22
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
UK car registrations
Sharp decline in car registrations as consumers shy away from major purchases.Sales of new cars fell in March as UK consumers shunned diesel vehicles and uncertainty deterred buyers in what is traditionally a strong month for the industry. The number of new car registrations fell by 3.4 per cent. It was the lowest number for March in six years according to the data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
UK car registrations % change year-on-year
Source: The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
Mar
200
9Au
g 20
09Ja
n 20
10Ju
n 20
10N
ov 2
010
Apr
2011
Sep
2011
Feb
2012
Jul 2
012
Dec
201
2M
ay 2
013
Oct
201
3M
ar 2
014
Aug
2014
Jan
2015
Jun
2015
Nov
201
5Ap
r 20
16Se
p 20
16Fe
b 20
17Ju
l 201
7D
ec 2
017
May
201
8O
ct 2
018
Mar
201
9
23
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Outlook for consumer spending – essential vs discretionary spending
Consumer spending expected to increase in Q2 2019.The outlook for consumer spending on both discretionary and essential categories suggests that consumers intend to increase their spending over the next three months.
Net % of UK consumers spending more by category over the next three months
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Essential Discretionary
24
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Outlook for consumer spending – by category
Spending will accelerate across nearly all categories.We expect consumer spending to continue to grow but at a slower pace. Consumers are likely to limit spending as the benefits of stronger real wage growth are offset by concerns about the possible implications of Brexit, which could include slower jobs growth, gradual interest rates rises and subdued house price growth. However, such a scenario could change and will ultimately be dependent on he manner in which the UK exits the EU and its timing.
Net % UK consumers spending more by category over the next three months
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25Going out
Alcoholic beverages and tobaccoElectrical equipment
Clothing and footwearFurniture and homeware
Major household appliancesRestaurants and hotels
EducationHealth
Landline/mobile phone, internetand cable/TV subscriptions
Pensions and insuranceHolidays (long break)
TransportHousing
Grocery shopping for food andnon-alcoholic beverages
Utility bills
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Q4 2018Q1 2019 Q1 2018
Mor
e sp
endi
ng
Less
spe
ndin
g
25
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
The last word
UK consumer confidence edged up by one percentage point in Q1 2019 to -8 per cent from -9 per cent in the previous quarter. However, Deloitte’s overall consumer confidence index remains close to one-and-a-half year low.
Takeaway 1Improved confidence in personal financesIn a sign that positive economic news helped to restore consumers’ confidence in their own personal finances, confidence in levels of disposable income and sentiment about levels of debt grew by five and four percentage points respectively this quarter.
Improved sentiment about levels of disposable income suggests that wages rising at their fastest pace for a decade in 2018 are starting to have a positive impact on consumers. Meanwhile, increasing confidence in debt levels coincided with household borrowing easing since the start of 2019, a sign that consumers have become more measured in their borrowing.
Takeaway 2Some improvement in sentiment about job securityThe strength of the labour market also drove up consumers’ confidence in job security, which saw a one-percentage-point increase this quarter.
By contrast, a two-percentage-point fall in sentiment about job opportunities and career progression highlights that concerns about a possible weakening of the job market post-Brexit remain.
Takeaway 3Caution remainsThe modest rise in consumer confidence about their personal finances has not yet translated into households splashing out.
This quarter, while consumers have maintained their levels of spending in the essential categories, they have started to reduce their expenditure in some of the more discretionary categories. Overall, net spending on essentials remained flat (at 12 per cent) but discretionary spending was down five percentage points (to -6 per cent from -1) compared to the previous quarter.
Takeaway 4Overall consumer spending will continue to grow in the first half of 2019, but at a slower pace. Looking ahead consumers are likely to limit spending as the benefits of stronger real wage growth are offset by concerns about the possible implications of Brexit.
However, such a scenario could change and will ultimately be dependent on the manner in which the UK exits the EU and its timing.
26
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Ian Stewart Chief Economist, Deloitte
The bounce in consumer sentiment comes against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty around Brexit during the survey period in late March. Consumers also faced headwinds from a slowing global economy while at home housing activity has softened and consumer credit is less easy to come by.
Despite the deluge of bad news consumer confidence has held up, buoyed by rising real incomes, a buoyant jobs market and ultra-low mortgage costs. Earnings growth has now outstripped inflation for 13 consecutive months while unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975. Mortgage rates remain close to all-time lows. The key question for the UK consumer is whether growing corporate nervousness will trigger a squeeze on pay and jobs in the second half of the year.
Ben Perkins Head of Consumer & Industrial Products Research
It is encouraging to see an improvement in consumers’ confidence about their personal finances. The fact that this is not yet translating into higher levels of spending is more due to context rather than how much money there is in consumers’ pockets. Consumers’ caution is understandable given their concerns about the possible implications of Brexit and how they might directly impact them. These implications include slower jobs growth, gradual interest rate rises and subdued house price growth.
It is only when some of that uncertainty is lifted that we will be able to judge the underlying strength of the consumer market. Meanwhile, consumers continue to rebuild their finances by being more measured in their borrowing and by increasing their savings.
The last, last word
Ian Geddes Retail lead partner
Warmer weather this March compared to last year’s Beast from the East saw higher footfall and stronger sales bringing some relief to retailers. However, the retail industry remains under pressure as it continues to face structural challenges including rising costs for people and property. These cost pressures are squeezing margins at a time when retailers need to invest both in growing their digital sales and transforming their in-store experience.
In terms of demand, while the fundamentals of the consumer economy remain strong, confidence stays fragile impacting consumers’ willingness to spend on the more discretionary items. With the spell of prolonged good weather for the important Easter trading period, retailers will hope the warmth will have lifted the mood of consumers and put a spring in their steps.
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The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019
Authors
Ben Perkins Contributor Head�of�Consumer� and�Industrial�Products�Research
[email protected]+44 20 7007 2207
Celine Fenech Author Manager,�Consumer�and�Industrial�Products�Research�
[email protected] +44 20 7303 2064
A note on the methodologySome of the figures in this research show the results in the form of a net balance. This means that in a survey of 100 respondents, assume that 30 reported they are spending more, 50 reported no change and 20 reported they are spending less. The net balance is calculated by subtracting the number that reported they spent less from the number that reported they spent more, i.e. 30 – 20 = 10. This means 10% of consumers reported that they spent more rather than less.
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Designed�and�produced�by�368�at�Deloitte,�London.�J17903
The�Deloitte�Consumer�Tracker�is�based�on�a�consumer�survey�carried�out�by�independent�market�research�agency,�YouGov,�on�Deloitte’s�behalf.
This�survey�was�conducted�online�with�a�nationally�representative�sample�of�more�than�3,000�UK�adults �aged�18+�between�23�and�26�March�2019.