Keep calm and carry on The Deloitte Consumer Tracker · 2020-03-19 · Essential vs discretionary spending 18 Inflation by category 19 Consumer spending by category 20 Retail sales

Keep calm and carry onThe Deloitte Consumer TrackerQ1 2019

Contents

*Net balances

Previous

Latest

-9%-8%

Overall consumer confidence (q/q)*

Previous

Latest

-21%-16%

Confidence inlevels of disposable income (q/q)*

Previous

Latest

-6%-2%

Confidence in levels of debt (q/q)*

Previous

Latest

-7%-6%

Confidence in job security (q/q)*

Previous

Latest

-3%-5%

Confidence in job opportunities (q/q)*

Consumer confidence

Deloitte consumer confidence index 04

Individual measures of confidence: 05

Household disposable income 06

Levels of debt 07

Job security 08

Job opportunities and career progression 09

General health and wellbeing 10

Children’s education and welfare 11

The wider economy’s impact on consumers

Falling inflation and rising wages, bolstered 13 confidence in personal finances

UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975 14Consumer borrowing rises at slowest rate 15 since 2014

Modest increase of the savings ratio 16

Consumer spending

Essential vs discretionary spending 18

Inflation by category 19

Consumer spending by category 20

Retail sales 21

Car registrations 23

Essential vs discretionary spending outlook 24

Consumer spending by category outlook 25

The last word 26

The last, last word 27

Authors 28

Q1 2019 at a glance

Consumer confidence

03

The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2019

Deloitte consumer confidence index*

Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

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2013

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2018

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2018

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2018

Q1

2019

Annual moving average

UK consumer confidence edged up by one percentage point to -8 from -9 in Q4 2018.Positive economic news helped to restore confidence. However, confidence remains close to one-and-a-half year low suggesting that it will take longer and will require greater certainty around Brexit, for the positive economic news to restore confidence to previous levels.

*�The�Deloitte�consumer�confidence�index�is�an�average�of�the�net�%�of�consumers�who�said�their�level�of�confidence�improved�in�the�past�three�months�for�six�individual�measures�of�confidence�(see�next�slide).

04


Our overall confidence index is based on six individual measures of confidence

Individual measures of consumer confidence

Levels of debt

Job opportunities/career progression

General health and wellbeing

Job security

Children’s education and welfare

Current Q1 2019net balances*

% point change quarter-on-quarter

Q4 2018

% point change year-on-year

Q1 2018

Household disposable income

+4 -2

+1 -2

-2 -3

+2 -1

-2 -5

+5 -2-16%

-2%

-6%

-5%

-15%

-3%

Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker*see definition of ‘net balance’ on page 28 under ‘a note on the methodology’

05


Consumer confidence about their household levels of disposable income

Confidence in levels of disposable income grew by five percentage points compared with the previous quarter. Falling inflation, rising real wages and unemployment at historical low have bolstered consumers’ confidence in their personal finances. In particular, improved sentiment about levels of disposable income suggests that wages rising at their fastest pace for a decade in 2018 are starting to have a positive impact on consumers.

Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their levels of household disposable income has improved in the past three months

-44-40-36-32-28-24-20-16-12

-8-40


Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

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2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

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2013

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2017

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2017

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2018

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2018

Q3

2018

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2018

Q1

2019


06


Consumer confidence about their levels of debt

Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their levels of debt has improved in the past three months

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

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2013

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2014

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2017

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Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019



Sentiment about levels of debt grew by four percentage points compared with the previous quarter. This coincided with household borrowing easing, as consumers became more measured in their borrowing. Consumer spending has been fuelling UK growth since June 2016 as consumers borrowed more or dipped into their savings at a time when real wages were not growing. Hence this slowdown in borrowing raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending.

07


Consumer confidence about job security

The strength of the labour market also drove up consumers’ confidence in job security. Job security saw a one-percentage-point increase this quarter.

Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their job security has improved in the past three months

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

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2013

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2013

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2015

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2015

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2016

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2016

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2016

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2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019



08


Consumer confidence about job opportunities

Consumer confidence about job opportunities falls.A two-percentage-point fall in sentiment about job opportunities and career progression highlights that concerns about a possible weakening of the job market post-Brexit remain.

Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their job opportunities and their career progression has improved in the past three months

-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-202


Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

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2013

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2014

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2014

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2015

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2017

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2017

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2017

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2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019


09


Consumer confidence about their general health and wellbeing

Consumers were more confident about their general health and wellbeing this quarter.Consumer confidence in their general health and wellbeing rose by two percentage points quarter-on-quarter from -17% to -15% in Q4 2018.

Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their general health and wellbeing has improved in the past three months

-20

-18-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-20


Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

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2013

Q2

2013

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2013

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2016

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2017

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2017

Q3

2017

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2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019


10


Consumer confidence about their children’s education and welfare

Sentiment about children’s education and welfare continues to fall this quarter.Consumer confidence in their children’s education and welfare fell by two percentage points this quarter.

Net % of consumers who said that their confidence in their children s education and welfare has improved in the past three months

-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234


Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

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2012

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2013

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2013

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2019


11

The wider economy and its impact on consumer confidence

12


Falling inflation and rising wages, bolstered confidence in personal finances

Improved sentiment about levels of disposable income suggests that wages rising at their fastest pace for a decade in 2018 are starting to have a positive impact on consumers. Adjusting for the effects of inflation, wages were 1.5 per cent higher by the end of 2018 than the previous year.-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CPI Inflation vs average earnings (inc. bonuses) (year-on-year % growth)

Source: Thomson Reuters

CPI inflation Average earnings including bonuses

Mar

200

9Au

g 20

09Ja

n 20

10Ju

n 20

10N

ov 2

010

Apr

2011

Sep

2011

Feb

2012

Jul 2

012

Dec

201

2M

ay 2

013

Oct

201

3M

ar 2

014

Aug

2014

Jan

2015

Jun

2015

Nov

201

5Ap

r 20

16Se

p 20

16Fe

b 20

17Ju

l 201

7D

ec 2

017

May

201

8O

ct 2

018

Mar

201

9

13


UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975

Britain is experiencing a booming labour market.Unemployment is at a 44-year low (3.9 per cent in the three months to January) as employers ramped up hiring at the fastest rate in more than three years. However, there are concerns about a possible weakening of the job market post-Brexit. Deloitte’s survey of UK Chief Financial Officers shows that around half (53 per cent) of CFOs also expect to reduce hiring due to Brexit – the highest level in more than two years.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

UK unemployment rate (all aged 16 and over)

Dec

200

8Ap

r 20

09Au

g 20

09D

ec 2

009

Apr

2010

Aug

2010

Dec

201

0Ap

r 20

11Au

g 20

11D

ec 2

011

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2012

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2012

Dec

201

2Ap

r 20

13M

ay 2

013

Dec

201

3Ap

r 20

14Au

g 20

14D

ec 2

014

Apr

2015

Aug

2015

Dec

201

5Ap

r 20

16Au

g 20

16D

ec 2

016

Apr

2017

Aug

2017

Dec

201

7Ap

r 20

18Au

g 20

18D

ec 2

018


14


Consumer borrowing rises at slowest rate since 2014

UK consumer credit growth cools to lowest rate in 4 years.Although UK household debt remains historically high, the annual rate of consumer credit growth fell to its slowest rate for four years during 2018. UK consumer borrowing helped to sustain the economy after the Brexit vote as savings ratios fell to historic lows, however the appetite for further spending could diminish as households rebuild their savings and house price growth slows.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Unsecured lending to individuals


UK consumer credit – Net unsecured lending to individual (% year-on-year)

Feb

2009

Jul 2

009

Dec

200

9M

ay 2

010

Oct

201

0M

ar 2

011

Aug

2011

Jan

2012

Jun

2012

Nov

201

2Ap

r 20

13Se

p 20

13Fe

b 20

14Ju

l 201

4D

ec 2

014

May

201

5O

ct 2

015

Mar

201

6Au

g 20

16Ja

n 20

17Ju

n 20

17N

ov 2

017

Apr

2018

Sep

2018

Feb

2019

15


Modest increase of the savings ratio

Consumers are also starting to rebuild their savings.Still low by historical standards, the household savings ratio – which estimates the amount of money households have available to save as a percentage of their total disposable income – increased modestly to 4.2 per cent for 2018 from a record low of 3.9 per cent in 2017, in a sign that families are gradually getting back on their feet.

2

4

6

8

10

12

UK household savings ratio


Q4

2007

Q2

2008

Q4

2008

Q2

2009

Q4

2009

Q2

2010

Q4

2010

Q2

2011

Q4

2011

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2014

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2014

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2015

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2015

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2016

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2016

Q2

2017

Q4

2017

Q2

2018

Q4

2018

16

Consumer spending

17


Essential vs discretionary spending

This quarter, while consumers have maintained their levels of spending in the essential categories, they have started to reduce their expenditure in some of the more discretionary categories. Overall, net spending on essentials remained flat (at 12 per cent) but discretionary spending was down five percentage points (to -6 per cent from -1) compared to the previous quarter. This drop in spending in discretionary categories was partly due to the seasonal effect following the Christmas golden quarter.

Net % UK consumers spending more by category in the last three months

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

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2013

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2013

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Q1

2019

Essential Annual moving average Discretionary Annual moving average

18


Inflation edged up to 1.9% in March 2019

CPI inflation by category (% change y/y)

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Clothing & footwear

Miscellaneous goods & services

Furn, HH equipment & repair of the house

Food & non-alcoholic beverages

Housing, water & fuels

Health

Hotels, cafes & restaurants

Transport

Education

Recreation & culture

Communication

Alcoholic beverages, tobacco & narcotics

Total inflation

3.0%


March 2018March 2019

1.9%2.5%

5.2%3.5%3.7%

-0.4%2.7%

3.3%3.1%

2.8%3.3%

3.0%2.8%

2.5%

2.8%2.5%

1.2%2.1%

0.8%

0.6%2.5%

0.6%-0.1%

-2.0%3.9%

UK inflation rate was stable at 1.9 per cent in March unchanged from February.A slowdown in the cost of food offset a rise in petrol and clothes prices, according to official data.Inflation was lower than expected in March but is set to rise further over the next couple of months given a planned lift in the utility price cap in April and increasing food prices due to higher import costs.

19


Consumer spending in the last three months

This drop in spending in discretionary categories was partly due to the seasonal effect following the Christmas golden quarter.However, the year-on-year fall in spending seen on discretionary items was more pronounced indicating a more cautious consumer attitude to spending in non-essential categories. Spending on some essentials categories such as housing, transport or utilities was up this quarter but that rise was offset by a fall in grocery spending which slowed this quarter as sign of consumers trading down or buying less.

Net % UK consumers spending more by category over the last three months

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Going out

Alcoholic beverages and tobaccoClothing and footwear

Restaurants and hotelsFurniture and homeware

Electrical equipmentMajor household appliances

EducationHolidays (long break)

HealthPensions and insurance

Landline/mobile phone, internetand cable/TV subscriptions

TransportHousing

Grocery shoppingUtility bills


Q4 2018Q1 2019 Q1 2018

Mor

e sp

endi

ng

Less

spe

ndin

g

20


Retail sales (excl. fuel NSA)


% change in volume and value year-on-year

Volume Value

Mar

200

9Ju

n 20

09Se

p 20

09D

ec 2

009

Mar

201

0Ju

n 20

10Se

p 20

10D

ec 2

010

Mar

201

1Ju

n 20

11Se

p 20

11D

ec 2

011

Mar

201

2Ju

n 20

12Se

p 20

12D

ec 2

012

Mar

201

3Ju

n 20

13Se

p 20

13D

ec 2

013

Mar

201

4Ju

n 20

14Se

p 20

14D

ec 2

014

Mar

201

5Ju

n 20

15Se

p 20

15D

ec 2

015

Mar

201

6Ju

n 20

16Se

p 20

16D

ec 2

016

Mar

201

7Ju

n 20

17Se

p 20

17D

ec 2

017

Mar

201

8Ju

n 20

18Se

p 20

18D

ec 2

018

Mar

201

9

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Annual moving average Annual moving average

21


Retail sales (excl. fuel NSA) (continued)

Sales growth defies expectationsOur Tracker results contrast with exceptionally strong retail sales in March when sales rose by 4.4 per cent compared to a year earlier*. On a quarterly basis UK consumers bought 3.9 per cent more than in the same period of 2018, according to the Office for National Statistics. The bounce back in March was due to strong increases in food and clothes sales following the milder weather as well as stronger online sales.

Q1 2019:

Retail�sales�(excl.�fuel) +3.9%�y-o-yOnline sales +12.0%�y-o-yStore�sales�(excl.�fuel) +2.2%�y-o-y

52.8%�of�the�growth�came�from�online�(£1.8bn�out�of�£3.4bn).

*In our analysis we use retail sales value data excluding fuel on a non seasonally adjusted basis

22


UK car registrations

Sharp decline in car registrations as consumers shy away from major purchases.Sales of new cars fell in March as UK consumers shunned diesel vehicles and uncertainty deterred buyers in what is traditionally a strong month for the industry. The number of new car registrations fell by 3.4 per cent. It was the lowest number for March in six years according to the data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

UK car registrations % change year-on-year

Source: The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)

Mar

200

9Au

g 20

09Ja

n 20

10Ju

n 20

10N

ov 2

010

Apr

2011

Sep

2011

Feb

2012

Jul 2

012

Dec

201

2M

ay 2

013

Oct

201

3M

ar 2

014

Aug

2014

Jan

2015

Jun

2015

Nov

201

5Ap

r 20

16Se

p 20

16Fe

b 20

17Ju

l 201

7D

ec 2

017

May

201

8O

ct 2

018

Mar

201

9

23


Outlook for consumer spending – essential vs discretionary spending

Consumer spending expected to increase in Q2 2019.The outlook for consumer spending on both discretionary and essential categories suggests that consumers intend to increase their spending over the next three months.

Net % of UK consumers spending more by category over the next three months

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

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2013

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2014

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2014

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2014

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2014

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2015

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2015

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2015

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2015

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2016

Q2

2016

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2016

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2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019

Essential Discretionary

24


Outlook for consumer spending – by category

Spending will accelerate across nearly all categories.We expect consumer spending to continue to grow but at a slower pace. Consumers are likely to limit spending as the benefits of stronger real wage growth are offset by concerns about the possible implications of Brexit, which could include slower jobs growth, gradual interest rates rises and subdued house price growth. However, such a scenario could change and will ultimately be dependent on he manner in which the UK exits the EU and its timing.

Net % UK consumers spending more by category over the next three months

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25Going out

Alcoholic beverages and tobaccoElectrical equipment

Clothing and footwearFurniture and homeware

Major household appliancesRestaurants and hotels

EducationHealth

Landline/mobile phone, internetand cable/TV subscriptions

Pensions and insuranceHolidays (long break)

TransportHousing

Grocery shopping for food andnon-alcoholic beverages

Utility bills


Q4 2018Q1 2019 Q1 2018

Mor

e sp

endi

ng

Less

spe

ndin

g

25


The last word

UK consumer confidence edged up by one percentage point in Q1 2019 to -8 per cent from -9 per cent in the previous quarter. However, Deloitte’s overall consumer confidence index remains close to one-and-a-half year low.

Takeaway 1Improved confidence in personal financesIn a sign that positive economic news helped to restore consumers’ confidence in their own personal finances, confidence in levels of disposable income and sentiment about levels of debt grew by five and four percentage points respectively this quarter.

Improved sentiment about levels of disposable income suggests that wages rising at their fastest pace for a decade in 2018 are starting to have a positive impact on consumers. Meanwhile, increasing confidence in debt levels coincided with household borrowing easing since the start of 2019, a sign that consumers have become more measured in their borrowing.

Takeaway 2Some improvement in sentiment about job securityThe strength of the labour market also drove up consumers’ confidence in job security, which saw a one-percentage-point increase this quarter.

By contrast, a two-percentage-point fall in sentiment about job opportunities and career progression highlights that concerns about a possible weakening of the job market post-Brexit remain.

Takeaway 3Caution remainsThe modest rise in consumer confidence about their personal finances has not yet translated into households splashing out.

This quarter, while consumers have maintained their levels of spending in the essential categories, they have started to reduce their expenditure in some of the more discretionary categories. Overall, net spending on essentials remained flat (at 12 per cent) but discretionary spending was down five percentage points (to -6 per cent from -1) compared to the previous quarter.

Takeaway 4Overall consumer spending will continue to grow in the first half of 2019, but at a slower pace. Looking ahead consumers are likely to limit spending as the benefits of stronger real wage growth are offset by concerns about the possible implications of Brexit.

However, such a scenario could change and will ultimately be dependent on the manner in which the UK exits the EU and its timing.

26


Ian Stewart Chief Economist, Deloitte

The bounce in consumer sentiment comes against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty around Brexit during the survey period in late March. Consumers also faced headwinds from a slowing global economy while at home housing activity has softened and consumer credit is less easy to come by.

Despite the deluge of bad news consumer confidence has held up, buoyed by rising real incomes, a buoyant jobs market and ultra-low mortgage costs. Earnings growth has now outstripped inflation for 13 consecutive months while unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975. Mortgage rates remain close to all-time lows. The key question for the UK consumer is whether growing corporate nervousness will trigger a squeeze on pay and jobs in the second half of the year.

Ben Perkins Head of Consumer & Industrial Products Research

It is encouraging to see an improvement in consumers’ confidence about their personal finances. The fact that this is not yet translating into higher levels of spending is more due to context rather than how much money there is in consumers’ pockets. Consumers’ caution is understandable given their concerns about the possible implications of Brexit and how they might directly impact them. These implications include slower jobs growth, gradual interest rate rises and subdued house price growth.

It is only when some of that uncertainty is lifted that we will be able to judge the underlying strength of the consumer market. Meanwhile, consumers continue to rebuild their finances by being more measured in their borrowing and by increasing their savings.

The last, last word

Ian Geddes Retail lead partner

Warmer weather this March compared to last year’s Beast from the East saw higher footfall and stronger sales bringing some relief to retailers. However, the retail industry remains under pressure as it continues to face structural challenges including rising costs for people and property. These cost pressures are squeezing margins at a time when retailers need to invest both in growing their digital sales and transforming their in-store experience.

In terms of demand, while the fundamentals of the consumer economy remain strong, confidence stays fragile impacting consumers’ willingness to spend on the more discretionary items. With the spell of prolonged good weather for the important Easter trading period, retailers will hope the warmth will have lifted the mood of consumers and put a spring in their steps.

27


Authors

Ben Perkins Contributor Head�of�Consumer� and�Industrial�Products�Research

[email protected]+44 20 7007 2207

Celine Fenech Author Manager,�Consumer�and�Industrial�Products�Research�

[email protected] +44 20 7303 2064

A note on the methodologySome of the figures in this research show the results in the form of a net balance. This means that in a survey of 100 respondents, assume that 30 reported they are spending more, 50 reported no change and 20 reported they are spending less. The net balance is calculated by subtracting the number that reported they spent less from the number that reported they spent more, i.e. 30 – 20 = 10. This means 10% of consumers reported that they spent more rather than less.

28

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Documents

Keep calm and carry on The Deloitte Consumer Tracker · 2020-03-19 · Essential vs discretionary spending 18 Inflation by category 19 Consumer spending by category 20 Retail sales