Developing a Soft Linkage between a detailed dynamic Input-Output macroeconomic model
and a MarkAl energy system model
Franรงois Briens [email protected]
and Nadia Maรฏzi nadia.maรฏ[email protected]
Center for Applied Mathematics, Ecole des Mines Paristech (France)
19/11/2014
CONTENT
1. Current challenges to hybrid Energy-Economic modelling approaches
2. Our Input-Output Macroeconomic Model
3. Linking our Input-Output model to a MarkAl Model
4. Conclusion
2
1. Current challenges to hybrid Energy-Economic modelling approaches
3
High level of aggregation of the economic sphere:
โข Specificities of societies and their economies? โข Structural changes? (impact on energy consumption & dependency)
โข Economy is about: What do we want to produce and consume? How? For who?
=> GDP is NOT a satisfying indicator
Strong & restrictive assumptions on the economy and economic agents behavior
E.g.: โข Constant Elasticities โข Utilitarianist approaches and optimality (inaccurate and sometimes irrelevant)
=>Many models are fundamentally ยซ growth oriented ยป (normative stance)
Endogeneity is NOT a Graal.
โข Complexity VS. Intelligibility โข Prospective modeling: a tool for political and societal choices
1. Current challenges to hybrid Energy-Economic modelling approaches
4
Interest of dynamic features wrt. Static/Equilibrium models
โข Transitional dynamics Ex: Investment ยซ Wall effect ยป ; What if ยซ critical ยป evolutions of the system? โข Accounting for demographic evolution impacts (ex: active population ; health & education expenditures ; evolution of lifestyles)
Other important issues to reflect: Public debt, waste production, poverty, etc.
Source: INSEE, 2005
Avg size of households vs. age
Impact on Building sector?
CONTENT
1. Current challenges to hybrid Energy-Economic modelling approaches
2. Our Input-Output Macroeconomic Model
3. Linking our Input-Output model to a MarkAl Model
4. Conclusion
5
2. Our Dynamic Input-Output Model
6
-> Home-made Dynamic Simulation Model with STELLA ยฎ -> Based on French National Accounts -> Focus on Structural (rather than conjonctural) issues (Long term concerns)
Sectorial Production targets, Added Value (GDP)
Input-Output Analysis
Output
Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions, Employment,
Poverty, Government budget balance, public debtโฆ
Scenarios for Sectorial Demand Scenarios for Sectorial Demand
2. Our Macro-economic Model
7
The Model - Sectorial Final Demand
โข Total Final Demand in goods and services
For each branch i of the economy:
Total Final Demand i =
Final Consumption i (households)
+
Investment in products i
+
Export i
-
Import i
2. Our Macro-economic Model
8
The Model - Sectorial Macro Final Demand
๐ญ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐= ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐ โ๐๐ข๐ ๐โ๐๐๐๐ ร ๐น๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ โ๐๐ข๐ ๐โ๐๐๐
Population
- Cohorts Model - 9 scenarios from INSEE up to 2060:
Final Consumption per person or Households: Exogeneous, using surveys (political-behavioral parameters)
0-2
3-10
11-14
15-17
18-24
25-29
39-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-74
75-84
85 &+
Demography Immigration
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
Source: http://www.insee.fr/fr/ppp/bases-de-donnees/irweb/projpop0760/dd/pyramide/pyramide.htm
2. Our Macro-economic Model
9
The Model - Sectorial Final Demand
โข Total Final Demand in goods and services
For each branch i of the economy:
Total Final Demand i =
Final Consumption i (households)
+
Investment in products i
+
Export i
-
Import i
2. Our Macro-economic Model
10
The Model - Sectorial Macro Final Demand
Capital Stocks and Investment (1/2) Capital Stocks Survival laws:
Asset Life expectancy following a normal distribution (avg lifetime;std) for each branch i and each asset type j
๐ผ๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ก๐,๐ ๐ก โ๐ก=๐ก๐๐๐๐ก=โโ 1 โ ๐๐,๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ โ ๐ก
with Sij the survival coefficient, and (1-Sij) following a cumulated normal distribution
Different asset types
Housings Other buildings
Transport equipement IT equipment
Cultivated assets Softwares
Etc.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Asset type 1
Asset type 2
Asset type 3
2. Our Macro-economic Model
11
The Model - Sectorial Macro Final Demand
Capital Stocks and Investment (2/2) Investment:
So as to match a capital stock target corresponding to the production level, using the capital productivity (=๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐
๐พ) of branch i
๐ผ๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐โ ๐,๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ก ๐ก๐ฆ๐๐ ๐(๐ก) =๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐ก + ๐๐ก
๐พ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐,๐ ๐กโ ๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ ๐พ๐,๐(๐ก)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
K Target= ForcstdProduction/Kproductivity
Scrappage Initial stock of K
ฮ=Investment needed to match K target
2. Our Macro-economic Model
12
The Model - Sectorial Final Demand
โข Total Final Demand in goods and services
For each branch i of the economy:
Total Final Demand i =
Final Consumption i (households)
+
Investment in products i
+
Export i
-
Import i
2. Our Macro-economic Model
13
The Model - Sectorial Macro Final Demand (7/7)
Foreign Trade Import: Using import coefficients for final consumption, investment and intermediate consumption
๐ป๐๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐๐๐๐๐๐
= ๐น๐๐๐๐ ๐บ๐๐๐๐ & ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐
โ ๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐โ๐๐๐๐ + ๐ผ๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐บ๐๐๐๐ & ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐
โ ๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐โ๐๐๐๐
+ ๐ถ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐
โ ๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐โ๐๐๐๐
Export: Proportional to import, or exogeneous
2. Our Macro-economic Model
14
Sectorial Production targets, Added Value (GDP)
Input-Output Analysis
Output
Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions, Employment,
Poverty, Government budget balance, public debtโฆ
Scenarios for Sectorial Demand
Input-Output Analysis
2. Our Macro-economic Model
15
The Model - Input-Output Analysis
โข Input-Output Analysis - 38 Branches
Hypothesis : Macro Supply = Macro Demand ๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ท๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐ = ๐ผ๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐ถ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ + ๐น๐๐๐๐ ๐ถ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐๐
๐ฅ1 = ๐11. ๐ฅ1 + ๐12. ๐ฅ2 +โฏ+ ๐1๐. ๐ฅ๐ +๐ฆ1 ๐ฅ2 = ๐21. ๐ฅ1 + ๐22. ๐ฅ2 +โฏ+ ๐2๐. ๐ฅ๐ +๐ฆ2 ๐ฅโฆ = ๐โฆ1. ๐ฅ1 + ๐โฆ2. ๐ฅ2 +โฏ+ ๐โฆ๐. ๐ฅ๐ +๐ฆโฆ ๐ฅ๐ = ๐๐1. ๐ฅ1 + ๐๐2. ๐ฅ2 +โฏ+ ๐๐๐. ๐ฅ๐ +๐ฆ๐
with: ๐๐ = Total output of branch i ๐๐= Final demand for products i domestically produced ๐๐๐= Intermediate consumption of domestic product j used to produce
one unit in the branch I
=> [X] = [A] [X] + [Y] Solving for [X], we have: [X]= [I-A]-1 . [Y] where [I-A]-1 is called the Leontief Inverse
2. Our Macro-economic Model
16
Sectorial Production targets, Added Value (GDP)
Input-Output Analysis
Output
Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions, Employment,
Poverty, Government budget balance, public debtโฆ
Scenarios for Sectorial Demand
Output
Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions, Employment,
Poverty, Government budget balance, public debtโฆ
2. Our Macro-economic Model
17
The Model โ Main Outputs (1/3)
โข Energy, GHG and Waste from production:
Using ยซ Intensity coefficients ยป (estimated from Eurostat Data, INSEE, World Input-Output Database, Evolution rates to be fixed by the modeler)
๐น๐๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐(๐ก)
= ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐ก ร ๐ธ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐ (๐ก)
๐๐๐๐๐โ๐ ๐
๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ฎ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐(๐ก) = ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐ก ร ๐บ๐ป๐บ ๐ผ๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐ (๐ก)
๐๐๐๐๐โ๐ ๐
NB: Output detailed for: SOx, NOx, NH3, CO, NMVOC, CH4, N20, CO2, PM10, PM2.5, and CO2equivalences
๐พ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐(๐ก) = ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐ก ร ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐ ๐ผ๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐ (๐ก)
๐๐๐๐๐โ๐ ๐
NB: So far, output detailed for 14 types of waste (Glass, wood, lether, metal, plastic, rubber, mineral, hazardous and non-hazardous waste, etc.)
2. Our Macro-economic Model
18
The Model - Main Outputs (2/3)
โข Public Budget and Public Debt
APU Revenue APU Expenditure (by function: classification COFOG)
Fiscal Revenue
Taxes on Products (D21) V.A.T., Taxes on Imports, Other (TICPE, tabacco, beverages, etc.)
General Services APU (inc. Debt repaymentโฆ)
Taxes on Production (D29) Tax on Wages and Labour, Other taxes on production
ยซ Defense ยป (or ยซ attack ยป)
Impรดts courants sur Revenu et Patrimoine (D5) IRPP, CSG, CRDS, Impรดt sur les sociรฉtรฉs, taxe dโhabitation, impรดt foncier mรฉnages, ISF, etc.
Public order and ยซ safety ยป
Economic Affairs
Taxes in Capital (D91) Environmental protection
Social Contributions (employeurs et mรฉnages) Housing and community amenities
Non-Fiscal Revenue
Property Income Investment Revenue (D41 & D42), Land and Deposits rents (D45)
Recreation, culture and religion
Education
Health
Production Income Social Protection
2. Our Macro-economic Model
19
The Model - Main Outputs (2/3)
โข Public Budget and Public Debt
special focus on:
โข Education (11% Public exp. in 2012)
=>Cohort model:
๐ธ๐ฅ๐. = (๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ร ๐ ๐โ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐, ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ร ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ก๐ข๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐)
๐๐๐ ๐;๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐
โข Health (15% Public exp. in 2012)
=>Cohort model (similar to [Geay and Lagasnerie, 2013]), accounting for age effect, end-of-life effect, health quality:
๐ธ๐ฅ๐. =
(๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ โ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ ร ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐๐๐ โ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐+๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐กโ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ ร ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ค๐๐กโ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐
+๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ก ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ โ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ ร ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ โ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐+๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ก ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐กโ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ ร ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ค๐๐กโ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐)
๐๐๐ ๐
โข Social Protection (43% Public exp. in 2012) =>High level of disagregation : Retirement Pensions, Unemployment, Family and child, housing, Illness and disability, Social Exclusion (rsaโฆ) , Basic Income
2. Our Macro-economic Model
20
The Model - Main Outputs (2/3)
โข Public Budget and Public Debt
APU Revenue APU Expenditure (by function: classification COFOG)
Fiscal Revenue
Taxes on Products (D21) V.A.T., Taxes on Imports, Other (TICPE, tabacco, beverages, etc.)
General Services APU (inc. Debt repaymentโฆ)
Taxes on Production (D29) Tax on Wages and Labour, Other taxes on production
ยซ Defense ยป (or ยซ attack ยป)
Impรดts courants sur Revenu et Patrimoine (D5) IRPP, CSG, CRDS, Impรดt sur les sociรฉtรฉs, taxe dโhabitation, impรดt foncier mรฉnages, ISF, etc.
Public order and ยซ safety ยป
Economic Affairs
Taxes in Capital (D91) Environmental protection
Social Contributions (employeurs et mรฉnages) Housing and community amenities
Non-Fiscal Revenue
Property Income Investment Revenue (D41 & D42), Land and Deposits rents (D45)
Recreation, culture and religion
Education
Health
Production Income Social Protection
Budget Balance = Public Deficit/Surplus
๐ท๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ = ๐ท๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐๐๐
๐
2. Our Macro-economic Model
21
The Model - Main Outputs (3/3)
โข Employment & Unemployment
Total amount of working hours required to match a given level of production
using Labour productivity (๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐
๐ป๐๐ข๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐๐๐)
๐ป๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โ ๐ ๐ก = ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐ก
๐ฟ๐๐๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐ ๐ก
Nb: evolution of labour productivity can be extrapolated or chosen by the modeler with considerations on possible combinations of (K,L)
๐ธ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โ ๐ ๐ก =๐ป๐๐ข๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ก
๐ด๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก
NB: Additional informative output-> composition of ยซ active ยป population in Socio-Professional categories using initial shares of each ยซ CSP ยป in each branch.
Unemployed people= Total Active population โ โEmployed people
With: (cohort model)
๐ด๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ = ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐ ร ๐ด๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฆ ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
2. Our Dynamic Input-Output Model
22
Global Macro-Economic Modelling Approach
Survey results
Sectorial Production targets, Added Value (GDP)
Input-Output Analysis
Output
Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions, Employment,
Poverty, Government budget balance, public debtโฆ
Scenarios for Sectorial Demand
Political proposals
(e.g.: frugality, โcommoningโ
and sharing (cars,
equipment, etc.), repairing,
reusing, recycling โdurability
of goods-, fiscal policy and
redistribution, Working time
policy, re-localization, small
scale organic farming, not-
for-profit organizations, etc.)
CONTENT
1. Current challenges to hybrid Energy-Economic modelling approaches
2. Our Input-Output Macroeconomic Model
3. Linking our Input-Output model to a MarkAl Model
4. Conclusion
23
3. Soft Linkage between dynamic Input-Output simulation model & MarkAl model
24
Macro socio-
economic Model
Input-Output
Simulation Model
Main Outputs:
Production & Added Value,
Employment per sector and
Unemployment, Poverty,
Public Budget, Energy
Consumption, GHG
Emissions, Waste, etc.
Hypotheses on the
evolution of Final
Consumption of
Goods & Service
Bottom-Up Energy
System Model
Markal
Main Outputs:
โOptimalโ Allocation of energy technologies /processes and resources/ commodities, GHG intensity of energy, โglobalโ energy price
First Estimate of Global Final Energy
Demand for the production,
transport and residential sectors
-Dispatching of the energy demand between branches Oil/Gas & Electricity, -Share of electric vehicles,โฆ -GHG intensity of the Energy sectors -Change in Relative Price of Energy
Political
Proposals
CONTENT
1. Current challenges to hybrid Energy-Economic modelling approaches
2. Our Input-Output Macroeconomic Model
3. Linking our Input-Output model to a MarkAl Model
4. Conclusion
25
8. Conclusion (1/2)
26
Importance of dynamic features, disaggregation, flexibility of the economic sphere for the study of a diversity of contrasted scenarios of demand
About our macroeconomic model: a quite simple, accessible, powerful tool for common understanding and collective debate
Next steps: Surveys Scenario Building, Modeling, soft-linking and Analysis
รlรฉments de bibliographie Assoumou, E. (2006). Modรฉlisation MARKAL pour la planification รฉnergรฉtique long terme dans le ccontext franรงais. PhD thesis, Ecole des Mines de Paris. Crassous, R. (2008). Modรฉliser le long terme dans un monde de 2nd rang: Application aux politiques climatiques. PhD thesis, Institut des Sciences et Industries du Vivant et de lโEnvironnement (Agro ParisTech). Duesenberry, J. S. (1949). Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambrige (Mass.) Harvard University Press
Janssen, M. A. and Jager, W. (2001). Fashions, habits and changing preferences: Simulation of psychological factors affecting market dynamics. Journal of Economic Psychology, 22(6):745 โ 772.
Latouche, S. (2009). Farewell to growth. Robert E. Lucas, J. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1(1):19โ46. OโNeill, D. W. (2012). Measuring progress in the degrowth transition to a steady state economy. Ecological Economics, 84(0):221 โ 231. Victor, P. and Rosenbluth, G. (2007). Managing without growth. Ecological Economics, 61(2-3):492โ504.
2. Our approach
29
-> Home-made Dynamic Simulation Model with STELLA ยฎ -> Based on French National Accounts -> Focus on Structural (rather than conjonctural) issues (Long term concerns)
Survey results
Sectorial Production targets, Added Value (GDP)
Input-Output Analysis
Output
Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions, Employment,
Poverty, Government budget balance, public debtโฆ
Scenarios for Sectorial Demand
Political proposals
(e.g.: frugality, โcommoningโ
and sharing (cars,
equipment, etc.), repairing,
reusing, recycling โdurability
of goods-, fiscal policy and
redistribution, Working time
policy, re-localization, small
scale farming and
agroecology, not-for-profit
organizations, etc.)
6. Our approach
30
Survey- Focus Groups
โข Purpose: participative building of scenarios for the evolution of final demand in goods and services
โข Using the classification in Products or functions of consumption (COICOP)
โข For each function:
-> Discussing its possible, desirable/acceptable evolution per person or per household with respect to current level -> And possible ways to operate this evolution (e.g. gross reduction of service consumption, equipment sharing, repairing, extended lifetime, etc.)
FON01 Produits alimentaires et boissons non alcoolisรฉes FON02 Boissons alcoolisรฉes et Tabac
FON03 Articles d'habillement et chaussures FON04 Logement, eau gaz, รฉlectricitรฉ et autres combustibles
FON05 Meubles, articles de mรฉnage et entretien courant de l'habitation
FON051 Meubles, articles d'ameublement, tapis et autres revรชtements de sol FON052 Articles de mรฉnage en textile
FON053 Appareils mรฉnagers FON054 Verrerie, vaisselle et ustensiles de mรฉnage
FON055 Outillage et autre matรฉriel pour la maison et le jardin
FON056 Biens et services liรฉs ร l'entretien courant de l'habitation
FON07 Transports FON071 Achats de vรฉhicules
Etc.
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
?
ยซ How much? ยป &
ยซ How ?ยป
7. First Results
31
A) The example of Co-Housing (1/2)
Detailed classification of G&S
ยซ Households-Proportional ยป e.g.: washing machine, cooking ustensils, etc.
ยซ Population-Proportional ยป e.g.: food, clothes, etc.
Discerning the components of final consumption which are (generally) put in common within a household
Hypotheses on the change in average household size:
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Constant
back to Fr 1990 level
back to Fr 1975 level
INSEE trend High
INSEE trend LOW
7. First Results
32
A) The example of Co-Housing (1/2)
Results:
Nota: Evolution of the age-structure of population may counter-balance co-housing behaviors!
Source: INSEE, 2005
-11%
-5%
-3%
-4%
-4%
-12%
-9%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-22%
7%
4%
2%
3%
3%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Total Waste
Hazardous Waste
GHG Emissions (C02eq)
Global Energy consumption
Agregate Final Consumption
Nb Households
Values in 2040 with respect to the constant household size hypothesis
Central Projection INSEE
HH size 1975
HH size 1990
7. First Results
33
B) ยซ Re-Localization ยป
Implementation in our model:
Change in Technical coefficients /Intermediate consumptions of
Transport in Input-Output Tables
Change in import Ratios: ๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐
๐ท๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐๐+๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐
Exports in proportion of Imports
Simulations: back to the values of 1980 - 1970 - 1960
Results:
-6%
-5%
5%
5%
7%
9%
-9%
-8%
4%
6%
8%
9%
-6%
-4%
10%
16%
15%
20%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Global GHG Emissions
Global Energy consumption
GHG Emissions Domestic
Energy consumption for Domestic Prod
Full Time Employment
Total Production
Values in 2040 with respect to scenario with 2010 values
1960
1970
1980