37344THE WORLD BANK

- $'RESEARCHNEWS

Volume 5 Number 2

SUMMER 1984

CONTENTS

Measuring Levels of Living: The Contribution ofWorld Bank Research .............................................. 3

( .,1 (Grootaert and Dennis De Trav

Completed Research .............................................. 15Standards of Rural Electrification ...................................... 15A Framework for Agriculture Sector Analvsis ....................... 16The Economics of Public Sector Support for Agriculture:

A Case Study of the Rubber Sector in Thailand ................ 18

Conference ..................................... 19Debt and the Developing Countries ..................................... 19

New Research .............................................. 21Sociological Aspects of Dairv Cooperative Development

Projects (Sm all Study) ..................... ............................... 21The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade Liberalization

Policy ................................................ 21Land Title Security and Farm Productivitv:

A Case Studv in Thailand ............................................... 23Agricultural Investment, Infrastructure,

and Rural Financial Markets .................... . ............ 24Capital Accumulation and Formal and Informal

Credit Mlarkets in West Africa ......................................... 25European Trade Policies and the South ............................... 26Health Care Demand and Resource Mobilization:

The Case of Peru ................................................. 27

and Forthcoming Publications ...................................... 29054-01 1776

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St \1NIFR 1984 Ri:AR SR( i I NIW

World Bank Research News is issued three times a year. It supplements the descriptions of socioeconomicresearch projects in progress given in the annual Abstracts of Current Studies: The J4'orld Bank ResearchProgram and the annual The World Bank Catalog of Publications. Research News is available free of charge toinstitutions and individuals with a professional interest in development. To be placed on the mailing listor to recieve additional copies, please send a complete address, including your title, to the PublicationsDistribution Unit, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

Inquiries on particular research projects should be addressed to the individuals or departments cited.Other inquiries, comments, and suggestions for future issues will be welcomed and should be addressed to theEditor, Olfice of the Vice President, Economics and Research. The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NWV.,WN'ashington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

riiv v{oi \II.1) 1i\> N i.

RESEARCII NEWS SPRING 1984

Copyright t 1984The International Bank for Reconstructionand Development / The World Bank1818 H Street, N.W.Washinigton, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

ISSN 0253-3928

TIIE WVORLD BANK

St NINIER 1984 RESEARC(I NEWNNS 3

IMEASURING LEVELS data on individual and family living standardsstems from both macroeconomic and microecon-OF LIVING: THE omic considerations. Obviously the accuracy ofCONTRIBUTION OF conventional measures of economic progress at

national and subnational levels is important. Re-WORLD BANK RESEARCH gional disparities, relative growth among ethnicand tribal groups, and the plight of the urban

.rootaert and Dennis De Tra' poor are frequent distributional considerations- in many policy decisions. Also, the flows of goods

and services between the household and otherIn the late 1960s and earlv 1970s a shift occurred sectors of the economy are (or should be) neces-in the wav national governments and internation- sary considerations in macro-modeling efforts,al donor agencies evaluated economic develop- especiallv those aimed at identifying the distribu-ment strategies. In assessing the merits of alter- tional impact of national policies.native strategies, the distribution of economic Household data are also necessary componentsbenefits among a country's population began to i d aIn decisionmakmng at the project and sectoralrival the welght given to prospects for overall .T p a bgrowth .. A concern with wcham development poli- evl. The prvd a bai odntfiggopAp on- within a population who are in need of a partic-cles were aflecting complemented previous con- ular intervention, and they give polcymakers acerns over rates of economic growth per se.

sense of how families will react to changing con-This concern about distributional issues resurrect- ditions brought about by a proposed policy, espe-ed what is perhaps the oldest debate in political ciallv whether or not the target population willeconomy: equitv versus growth.2 Do high growth accept a particular intervention.strate-ies bcnefit the alreadv well-to-do, leaving' . 'In this paper, we review several efforts by Bankthe poor relatively, perhaps even absolutely

researchers to improve the measurement and un-,worse oil Are policies that have direct impact derstanding of living standards. Projects areon the poorest In a societv more or less effectiVe

n grouped in categories, roughlv defined bv wheth-than alternatives at promoting growth? Is there.* n r er they principalIlv concern a) the comparison ofin fact as opposed to rhetoric, a tradeoff betweengrowth and equity and, if so. what is the empiricalnature of that tradeofP? 1. Economist and Chief, respectively, of the World

Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study in the De-The answers to these questions remain much velopment Research Department. Earlier drafts of thisdisputed to this day. Thev have been so in part for article benefitted from comments by Ramesh Chander,philosophical reasons-issues having to do with John Duloy, Gregory Ingram, Timothy King, C. Mich-the ability Or inability to compare welfare levels alopoulos, and Graham Pyatt. This review is necessarily

- selective, and apologies are due to colleagues whose workamong individuals -and also because the data mav not have received adequate attention. Moreover, it isnecessary to answer them decisively are frequent- clcar that World Bank research on measuring levels of1v lackling. \ith but a few exceptions among living owes an intellectual debt to the academic anddeveloping countries, sufficiently accurate mea- research community at large.sures of levels ofliving, either for several nations at 2. See, for example, D. Ricardo, "On the Principlesa point in time or for a given nation over time, are of Political Economy and Taxation," first published 19nt available to monitor the consequence.s of April 1817. in Sraffa (1962) in "Reports" at the end of thispast or projected development strategies. paper.J 3. Successive WVorld Bank presidents have endorsedAs the pace of overall growth declined in the the Bank's concern for improving living standards, andcarlv 1980s, so, too, did the fevcr surroundinig measurement thereof. See, for example, text of Robert

isscs f aS. M'vcNamara's address to the meeting of the Bank'slquity. Nevertheless,a continued and Board of Governors in Nairobi, Kenya (September 24,strong interest remains within the Bank and its 1973; and A. \V. Clausen's address to the Latin Americanmember counitries over just who does and who Industrialists' Association meeting in Panama City, Pan-does not benefit from development. ' Interest in ama iAugust 18, 1982).

TIIE WORDI) BANK

4 RESEARCH NEWS SlUNIMER 1984

living standards aimlong nationis, It the measure- poverty in Latin American countries bv adjusting

ment of changes in living standards over time published data from household income and ex-

within a single country, or c, more general issues penditurc surveys. To determine the under-

of measuring and analyzing living standards. On- reporting of income in these surveys, different

going research to genierate better data on living types ol'income were compared with the national

standards, as a starting point for improved anal- accounts. Since no empirical basis existed to ad-

ysis, is then described, Followed by a short, but just the distributions where discrepancies were

challenging agenda for the future, observed, the adjustments relied on unverified

assumnptionis on the income-elasticity of under-

Cross-Country Coniparisons reporting. The estimated incidence of poverty

was affected considerably by these adjustments

In the study of levels of living, perhaps more typically resulting in a 1-3 percentage point re-

than in any other research area in economics, duction from the total income share accruing to

issues ofmeasurement data collection and qual- the poorest 40 percent of households, on a base

ity--comc to the fore. One or the Bank's early of onIs 6-11 percent. ,Altimir and Sourouille,

research eflorts compiledl existing data oin incomC 198NW AltiIir, 1982).

distribtition foI 81 countries Jain 1975). Thismonumeintal stocktaking exercise brought into The Bank/ESCAP project made no such adjust-

sharp focus the many problems inhlerenit in the ments. It began in the same way hb contrasting

wavs data are traditionally collectedl and pub- results from survey data with national accounts

lished b)v nationial statistical offices. Drawbacks and, indeed, found similar discrepancies (wage

include wide variations in the represenltativeness ancd salary income appears under-estimated least

of sample surveys, often less than national cover- in household surveys, property income most).

age, an inadequatelv defined concept of incomle However, it took the view that even though mea-

and inconsistenit measuring practices. Moreover, sores ofinequality calculated from the household

published data on thc distribution of incomiie survey data might be olT'the mark, on the whole,

could rcefr either to houselholds or to individuals; the relatize ranking of households would not

in the latter case, the data often did not cover be much aflected, especially if' households are

the entire population, but were limited to the groupecd in deciles. The data were seen as most

economicall1 active or to income recipients. suitable for the analysis ol' relatioinships betweenincome or expenditure deciles and other socioe-

These compilationis provided the first rough de- conomic variables, and thus for assessing the ro-

scription of' inconme inequality worldwide. They bustness of' these relationships across couintries.

were not, however, well suited for either compar- degree fequival-

ative or analNtical purposes. It is somile indication This project also looked at the d s

of'the demanad lor such inforrmation that in spite of ' ce among alternative bases for identifying pov-

their shortconmings, these compilations have been ertv groups, in particular between total and per

used extensively to studv the relationship between capita household income or expenditures. Results

development and distribution. 4 demonstiated that different bases could producevery differenit pictures of' who was and who xvas

Interest in distributional issues in the 1970s also not Ipoor. For cxample, a more thaini average

prompted several attempts to improve the com- number of' households hcaded by women ap-

parability of already-published data through t e- peared in the bottom two deciles of all countries'

post adjustments. The Bank collaborated wvith distributions which used total houselhold income

the IUnited Nations Economic Commission forLatin America 'ECLA; antd the Economic C'om-

mission for Asia and the Pacific iESCAP%I to

evaluate natioinal data sets that could f'orm the

basis for a description and analysis ol' poverty 4. Ihcv provided, for example. the emrpirical basis

and inconme distribution in these regions. foir several attempts to test the validity of Simon Kuzoets'inserted-U hlpothesis the distribution of iicome first

The BantklECJA project attemp)ted to de\elop vSorsnrs hreno economic growth begits. oCeore it im-

coip'arable cstimates of the i ncidtencC of absoltoe proves see. for example. Ahlovalia 1976.

THE _WORI.) BANK

St NINIFR 1984 RKSE MR(l1 NIF S

or expenditures as the ranking criterion. This Over-Time Comparisonsabove-average representation either (lisappearsor is greatly redtuced if' households are raniked A second major line of' past research by thebv per capita income or expenditures. Similarly, Bank focused on single countries in an attemptwhen householdis are ranked according to thieir to develop comparable data sources oxer time.total income or expenditure, no clear relationship The basic aim wsas to measure changes in relativebetween decile and dependency ratio hLousehold and absolute poverty over time and to identifysize divided hb the number of adultsi emerges; those groups that had received less than an aver-in contrast, a per capita ranking produces a age slare ofoverall income grow,,th. Major studiespronounced inverse relationship, that is, poor covered Brazil, India, Keny-a, and Nlalaysia andfamilies have a hi,ghier proportion of'persons not in Taiwan, China. Among the countries, Brazilthe working ages rmostly children.; N'isaria. and Nlalavsia ofl'ered especially rich data bases.1979, 1980.

The objective of the Brazil study was to deter-NMorc recently, the Bank initiated the Income mine, using household income data from theDistribution Data Evaluation and Compilation 1960 and 1970 censuses anld from annual nationalProject IDPj jointly \vith the International La- lhousehold surveys between 1972 and 1976, howbour Office. The IDP scrutinized publishedcl data the doubling of Brazil's per capita income be-for twenty, developing and five developed coun- twveen 19 60 and 1976 aflected income distribu-tries, mostly fIronm household income and expen- tion in the couiLtry. In hoth sources the under-diture surveys. Survey results were comparedl reportinig of income, the extenit of wvIhich differedw,ith other data sources censuses, other house- signilicantlv both among income classes andhold surveys, national accountsl to check and among cdata sources, was a major problem. Nanvcorrect for consistency of' implied dermographie of the same problems lrom the search for cross-distributions and income 1 t-.tes. The IL)P country comparability were also confronted inused cturrenit disposable income as the conceptlor the distributions, and where the surVey con-cept differed, adjustments were also made such 5. Other rcsearch has confirmed the importances e , of the ranking criterion for the identification of povertyas estimatm,ig andl addinlg nioii-cash mcomc. SU[)-

groups. In MlalaNsia, for example, one-quarter of thetrating direct taxes, and so on For several households in the lowest 40 percent of the householdcountries it was also necessary to assumc, esl)ecial- income distribution were found to be in the upper 60Iv for thc lower-income classes, that reported percent of the distribution of income per capita. House-expenditures represenited astual income. \Where holds headed by women have below average householdthe survey cocverage was not complete, lor exam- incomes, but their household income per capita equalsple, clue to thle omnission of one-person house- the mean. Using per capita income as the ranking criteri-distibuton fr thse huse- on. the benefits from public education are distributed inholds, the income distribUtion lor thosC hoUSe- fabor of the poor: the opposite is true if household incomeholdl groups Nwas estimatetd and added to the is used. Datta and Mleerman, 1980). 'Fhese studies showoriginal data. MIany ol'these adjustments, p that the portraval of poverty populations depends vcryularlN those involving the extr-emes of tlhe iniconme much on how familv composition is treated.distribution, lacked an empirical basis, ancI linal 6. Summaries of the individual countrv studiesrestilts were, by necessitv, based, in part, on have been assensbled in the "Handbook oni Income Dis-assumptions. tribution Data" (World Bank: Economic Analysis and

Projections Departmetit, Economic and Social Data Divi-While there can be little doubt that the IDP sion. Octoher 13, 1981 wvith supplement issued Decem-improved comparability amongi the selected data ber 9, 1982h, which also contains references to the di-sets, the necessary and liberal use of assumptioiis visional working papers describing the details of theadjustment procedure followed for each country. MIostof the revised distributions appear in the Bank's W'orldThe II)P's mtethodology did, however, have Oilt Developinent Indicators, an annex in the annuallv pub-

very importanit side benelit ---the adjustments and lished lfsorld Doe/rqnenlt Reporl.assumptions used by the I)P provide useful 7. Sec. respectively: Pfefferman and Webb 1979);guiCelices On wavs in which luturl- data collecting Ahlutwalia 1977:; Collier and Lal 1980); Anand (1983::efflorts can be improxvcd. and Fei, el a/..' 1980

IlIE I FORI.I) R1 D k N

6 RESEARCH NEWS St IINIER 19X4

the Brazil project. Among them were the need Several recent Banki studies on poxerty indicators

to impute v-alues of non-monetary and unreport- have been concerned with household expendi-

ed money income and to estimate its distribution, tures or components thereof, wvith the share of

the need to impute the av-erage income of those food costs in total expenditures receiving particu-

in the highest, open-ended income class, and lar attention. "' Since lood share in total expendi-

differences in methodIs and definitions across data tures tends to decline with rising lev,els of expen-

sources. The lack of' a firm empirical hase for diture, it can also be used as poverty indicator.

re(quired al justments and a sensitivity of results (Deaton, 1981; Rao, 19811. It appears, however,

to those adjustments meant that informed review- that this negative relationship may not hold ov er

ers of the same evidence could, and did, come to the entire range of expenditures. Specifically, at

vcir differenit conclusions about trends in Brazil's very low levels of total expenditure, the share

incoimie distribution.' spent on1 lood appears at first to rise as incomerises. Whether this is a statistical artifact resulting

The Mlalaysia study provides yet another exam- from errors in data collection or from specificple of the difficulty of making income compari- imputational procedures used for other expendi-

sons over time, even when household survey re- tures (notahly housing in the case of owner-sults are availahlc for different points in time. occupiers remains to be determined before the

Between 1957 and 1970. three Malaysian surveys universalit- of the food share as a welfare indica-

were undertaken from which, in principle, in- tor can he established.

come distributions can be derived. Based on the Bank research has also heen concerned wvith ex-

raw tlata from these surveys, the G(ini-coefficient panding the income concept used in studies of

ofinequalitW in Malaysia rose from 0.37 to 0.51 in liv\ing stanclards to reflect better hoth nonmarket

that period.9 Yet, the study's author argues con- and public-sector components. The process of'

v ininglv that ev en such a large difference is not dexvelopment frequently involvsc a shift of'produc-

necessarily indicative of\vhat actually happened tive activities from a generally unmeasured non-

with re,gard to inecluality in NIalaysia, since the market sector to a measured market sector. If

change in measurement could he wholl- dut to income is to reflect adecquately levels of living

differences in the concept of income tised and and chaniges therein over time and across regions.

the surveys coverage. then it must ,go beyond a cash-income concept

to captule the many other wax's that households,

Measures of Levels of Living especially traditional househlolds, generate con-sumption, savings, an(l investments. In fact, the

narrowness of' income measures customaril- de-Other Bank rcsearclh conccrned with the mea- r f h o s h

sorlelmenlt of liv ing standards dealt with the cor- tinues to he a major stumbling block in attempts

reel w(Stay of usinaog expe nditures ancI snu n k as arcctway f' uing xpeclitrcs n(i ncom as to determline chan.)ges in liviIng stand(ards among

measures of' levels of' living, with appropriate to or ove time.

way's ol' ., it andc reporting measures ofrIevels of' liming, anid with theoretical aspects ol One ofthe keys to a mort' robtist income measure

measuties of absolutle and rclative po(icrt\. that would correctly rank both traditional farm-

Ex/nwditwee) (and incme ai.' nei?a.sir.e a!'leve., ()/ liring.

Early w(ork on the measurement of living stan-dards w%as olteii one-dimensional in the senlse 8. Sec the referen(ces in Pfeffermann and WVebb

tlia.t it Ii )uscd onl CliStri)Utin(11S of either total 1979, also, Alhinwalia, e'I al. , 19801.

inic ime ol total expnlitduUres. This Iiistorical con- 9. The Giini coefficient measures income inecqualitv

Clntr atio in oisumryl measure s of lix inr- stnl- (ion a scale of'( to I ws-ith 0 representing perfect eclualitv and't ' .I total ineqluality.

dlardls lclto sa-l I two areas: "'1 thtotat icq tahtClasedo researchis I the- retie 10. A discussion of the theoretical foundationis of

..critI of ionic versus expce.ditures as a me.aSur using expenditure as a welfare measure, as well as of the

of lamlyl- \vce]-bll-ing; and 2 the LuIcderlvl-i g mul- price indices antic equivalence scales needed to deflateti-dilmilensiolnalit- of' living staiidard-s. the mealsur-e, CaIn he t6und in Deaton 1 1980 .

O -1E WORI.I) BANK -- -.- -

SIA\I\ER 1984 RES[AR(II NFV S 7

ers aiid urban Lictory x\orkers is the appropriate (ompontd/ of' livitg wslandards. M\Iost earlv studiestreatment (Pf hlouseh'old ierm hbers' timle anld of of levels offliving usec1 a single summarv measure.their nonmarket exchanges. Howev er, mnasur- usuallv either income or expenditures Anmongi ng t ut Use and productivity of' nonimar-ket timt many authors, however, a sense of dissatisfactionis olten difficult ancd suble( t to co nsiderahbe erro r. existed with these measures as the sole indicator ofl'urther procedures lor placing all economic value lifving standards. Concern about additional com-on eithcer are 'still ImlucIh delhated. ponents ofliving standards was first made popular

in the so-called basic needs approach to povertyIncome also needs to contain a valuation for the a 2good an sevics povied o huseold byassessment. I2Proponents of this approach arguedgolds aundc sertict es p rovide-ld to hotseholdls Fl that an accurate portrait of welfare or well-beingthe public s( tor at zero or staisidSiUed ost. Fail- requirecl information beyrond total income or ex-

rc to (1( this properly Canll substantially alter penclitures: such family and personal characteris-meastrel w-elfare levels and observed rankinlgS tics as educational attainment, nutritional status.01 hotisehold grOUpS. Studlies on Colombia ancl infant mortality. availability of safe vwater, andon MI alavsia show that beneiits from public access to facilitiesacstohealthiIailte also had to he mea-sptending are neiether always spread evenly amiong sured.' 2

househlolds, nor are they necessarilv progressivein their impact on income distribution. 'or exam- Althoutgh interest in basic needs has declinedp1c, ex\peilitures on1 public utilities in Colombia since its peak in the earlx 1970s, good argtimentsd isplay an "tirban bIas"' which Ihas, howxvter, remain for considering liing, standards as a mul-gradluallv dimiinrished oxer timei Nwhile the social ti-dimensional concept. Grootaert 1983 Ho, el

ctruirtv\ netw\ork f'avors middle-inicotmie group)s. al. 1981 . First, and perhaps foremost, many of'In Mlalavsia receipts Irom go eernment expeclni- the characteristics idenitified in the literature ontuircs dilltr by ethnic group: The Chinese, who basic needs are the stbuject of'direct policy inter-tenld to be Uirban dwellers, are best servedl b vention hb many govranments. Information on1)bliI utilitieS, while the Nlalavs gaill nmoIre f'roIi these chalracteristics is esserntial in identilfing tar-putilic meclicatl care. primary edtication. and ag- get poptilations and iii assessing the costs andrictilttiral assistance. Selowvskv. 1979o: Mler-man, benefits of' programs ainierd at improving their1 979 levels of living. Seconcl, gix cni current methodol-

ogies. sutmmary wellare measuL-es, based on eitherincome or expenditures, are subject to consider-ble to rel)resen t adeq uately levels of f lvilg wit hb-

able errors in measurement. Component mea-mit takirwz in1to accounrt csly/nami ISSue(S. HoLlsc-hold1 resources. cspecially income, flteCtuate ox-ertime. often to a significant extent. While some olth(se IlUCtUatiOals are anticipated by households

11 'I'he role of'time use data for measuring w.vclffarc ishe('atLISC O( t'dwr phosition 111 the lIIIC cycIt or ss-ithm icse n idal18an annual agricultural cyc1c of' seasons, others ' '', f ' 2. 'I'he basic needs approach is discussed at lengthtanniot bte iolcsCelle in: Intcrnational Labour Office 1976) and StrectenExen t lie mist traditional COmmunities have es- 1981 . The It 'urld D)eeleopmeie Repoi/ 1980 -New York:Oxford Uinixersitv Press. 1980 extensivels reviews thetablise mecIllt'(hanisms to ( xi \th these fltietua- vidence on the relation between economic growth andtions. Net\\l Irks of social stipport exist. involving the dexelopmient of'human resources.tranlsfers or laoas of monex, hood, or labor. Ex-i- 13. Attempts were made to combine several of'these

e (nce fir El Salvador and( the Philippines shows chara( teristics into an index number 'I'he so-called Phvs-that SuLCIh transfers arc an important SotIrcc of ical Quality of Life I ndex PQLI, for example, combinedincome f'or manuv poor hotuseliolrls. For example. life expectancN at age onCe, infant mortalit- rate, and

litcracv rate, cach tIith (qual wNeight. 'I'he lWorld Batiknever pursued this line of' rescar-ch because it was tfcltSatale Anla, E,l Salvsadlor, recci\ e d tran."Icrel in omeltSant .\a. l Slvadr. ecevedtranfi inome thlat the necessary arbitrariness in the choice of wecightsin 19 76: h )r I Inc-li Lirth ( of t hem, it rel)presented fi the (onipoilen ts (Iofthe index would limit its usefulness.4f( per cuit or more e)f their inconme. Kaufmiann Research on the components themselves and on the rela-and IL.iuPia Lncr, 198)). tiOIIshif) among them ns as, of course. actixelv pursued.

__ __ __ __ __ __ _i : * I i.n H k L U

H RESE:ARCII NEWS St \NIER 19X4

sures often accurate and relatively easily- collect- Measures of Povertyed-can act as a warning to researchers that theincome or expenditure data they are utsiing are Bank research has also includecd theoretical wvork

somehow flaved. on the measurement oflabsolute and relative pov-

e o o. Eertv and on alternative measures of welfare.The . of data on !ec i o?f liing. Ejarly Definitions of -arious poverty and inequality

efforts to compile better income statistics oftenmade the size distribution ofincome ethat is, the smeastirs and their properties such as sensitivity

madethesiz ditriutiii o iicom (tiatis,theto dilflrerint typcs of' tr-ansf'ers) were studied.Ipercentage of income recilpients in dilferent i- Among alternative measures, the Gini-coefficient

come brackets their focal point. Analysis tended . received considerable attention, because it is per-

to emphasize the estimation and decomposition haps the best known and most frequently used

of associated summary statistical measures of in-

come inequality and their changes ov er timee.Bank researchers argued that effective planning With respect to measures of' absolute poverty,

f'or policies designed to redress pov7ertN requires Bank research dealt mostlyN with the identification

identification of' socioeconomic groups that are of' a poverty line. Usually this line is expressed

the main targets of government policy. (Clienery, as the incomne level that permits the ptirchase of

et a!., 19741. Definitioni of these groups should a [Ood basket satisiVing minimal nutritional re-

reflect the causes of po\verty rather than its svrup- c1tiirements. Sometimes the defliition is expanded

toms, as do income deciles. The definitioni and to include other basic needs. However, funda-

study of such groups became an important item mental debate exists about the appropriateness

on the Bank's research agenda.' .4 of this procedure, specifically about the feasibility

The spe c d o of sof'defining food intake recluirements. I The gen-

Thea spcific definition ofe soioeconomic groupscral conclusion Wvould seem that, given our pre-n a countr depends on the lc ssues under set state oknowledge the is as t no objectiV

consideration. The guiding principle is or shouldcoifs I basis for defiiiiig a.1)N(\'l't\' Inic. C1onsequenltly,

be that groups are homogeneous in terms of t da 1.the definiltlon of a po\-erty Iiiie necessarily con-

criteria relevant for economic and social plolicy, so

that policyrmakers can identify target or potentialtarget groups lor government action. For exam-ple, a government coincerned w\ith redressing ra-

cial and regional imbalances in lexels of' liing, 14. In 1978. the Research Advisorv Panel on Income

will use race and region as socioeconomic criteria Distribution and Employmcnt established by World Banlk

for defining a group. In the same v ein, if institu- President. Rohert NicNamara, also supported this change

tional arrangements tinder which houseliolds op- in focus. Members of the panel werc Albert Fishlow,

erate are know\n to be important determinants Simon KuzGets, Sir arthur Lewois, Justinias. Rwema-of income and employment, these arrangemeintsbecome group criteria.5 15. For example, rural development projects affect

sharecropping tenanits differently from other farm house-

Thus far, the notion of' a socioeconomic group holds. Farmers with indepenident access to credit benefit

has been employed most successfully in the con- differentl\ from those who need to r(ly on landlords for

struction of social accounting matrices (SAMsl. access to credit. See Braverman and Srinivasan : 1981

These matrices describe the finaincial flows that 16. An excellent introductioni to the concept ot atake p)lace Nsthin and amonig various instittitions SANI is provided by King 1981 . Applications of the

takepctorseof' the an ong each of' mtutwhich is technique can be found in Chander. et al., 1980) andand sectors of the economy, each of Pvatt and Round .1977 . Large-scale SANts have beendi. d .1 , according to local conditions and constructed by the Bank for Egypt, MIalaysia, and Ihai-

policv relevance. SANIs integrate data on income laicl.distribtition and production and are suitable ye- 17. For in-depth treatment of this measure, see Kak-

hicles to studv the impact of macroeconomic wani (I980 arid Pvatt 1976

policy action on the level of living of different 18. See Lipton 1983 for a review of the state of

household glrOups. knowledge.

__1IIB_ NVWORIL) BANK

\L ININWR 1984 R F'S.F % ( II N 1'As ''

taills an arlhttrarx- component and remains in a -uv n titoin were desigi.ned for specific . relativelvill the iliiliti of )politieal choice.' t ' narrlxow pulrp)oses, stitfh as the eonstructiotn of coll-

sumner price indexes anid the estim ationi of corn-Operational Lessons ponltnts of'the System ol National Accounts. Thisnarrow foctus sexerelv limite(d their usefulness as

It is xxorth taking a nimnen It to reiew solIme of' a basis l6r the analysis of levels of' 1' ll- andthe lesSons learned f10I1 Xist wNork. ResearCh attempyts to iUse th1e data for that p)Urpose Cuicklyr('lving on secondarv data sources had the loewest reaclhed a pOillt of diminishing returnIs.pilollnIII telrIms of immproving knowsledge and u n-derstanding olevels Of living Attempts to de- Fourth. lack of' consistCent data over time was ascribe and nompare distributions across countries major harrier in efl'orts to trace the ellects of'or over time were less tlhan convincing becatise clexelopment projects and programs on targetadcij'ust ments to the data Nwere baseid onit untested groups. The next generation ot' household surveysassum ptions. \la'jor difliCultiCs steImed Irom must have an intertempor-al persp)ective. Surveysdilf'rcnees inl both coverage and concept. In w-il have to be eitier longitudinal in nature fol-cases ofi imP1 iprtant onhissions, it w1-as inpl)ossil)Ie low the same houselholds over a noumher ofto fiindi an empirical basis elsewhere to assess the years- or repeated survey operations mItUst sani-distribo tioll of income f`r omittted houselholds or ple eross-sectionally every three or five years.thet distril-utioln ol ani excluided ('omrpOmllclt of \Wha tever the design, surveys mLust use similairinc ome. The problem is inherent in the met hoch l- methodologies and Concepts. anti must cover theog: Adj usting se oindidarv data soi reCs wci ll a In110St same O iuseliold groups so as to guarantee com-ilevitalv I-id comparisons stlbjeet to large Irma- parability.

()I d' LIM-CrUl t litV .

Conceptual LessonsSccond. I'eseai'lch using primary data raw datafromIl SLI\C\NS as opposedI to published tables was ft has becoime clear thltat incoime especially as it isMoire si((Cessit Iin m11eetilg its obijiCtiVCs, althIou ngh conventionally measured, m ay not be the hestit still hadc problems. Such iresear(clil )rodutcedl a yardstick by which to eastire living standards.niumber ol interesting analytical testilts oni the Somie researchers argtte that expencdittlres maycauses of dilfflelrleces in letetls oif Iivihg and the proxvidet a mioit accurate ast>SeSmr'ent of living stall-imicidetiCe( Oi'p P0V-et .- It also shed nFwX fight on dards. hecause thex are easier to rmeasure andrela tionshi ps betweeni income lcx els anild other serve better as a proxy fior the underlying thieoret-So('tiio(oroilil(- CIIar'aCtei'isti(cs oi' the houLSChOlds. iWal concept of )'r pi-llut icome. This iS. hw-HoNI exer, the success (i this appnrobh dep)end ed ever, an empirical lutiestion and, as indicated illcritically on an ability to edlit cxisting data xwith the following section, %xxork is now under wax atspel ific purposes in Iin d . a tsk which was larg(e- the Batik to test it ill several coti-ntrv SCttings.l\ determined by the qualitN of ax ailable docu- F p c oold

en (lt ltiolt1 Thet permaltient-in(omel hyp)othesis holds thathouseholds attempt to disassociate xear-to-xear

As a (it It'orllarv lo the s'coild poiit, the polr variationis ill int]come f'rotii xcar-to-year variationsdoctimenta.tion of' triaixv stirvcy reports and dat atalps friustrated several later a ttitupts to list'Them. ften it xxWas n('c(ssa r\ to i call tIl)oi) thie I9) Ibor various opcrational purposes, thc Bank esti-rii'inin Statist ni anls itig nmates thi' number o(f 'abssolutc poor in its memberl t ,xistlg dl COllltFiCS, based on a simplified and standardized metho-miten tat o0In. LIsoal, tle reS0IItCCS retC tii re l'or dofogp that is dictaited by practical considerations andcompletintg Stifi do(cunwitation xxc're stubstantial recognizcs limitations duii ti thc s carcitv of' data t'orand thle 'esults less thanll satisfactorx m.ran eountri es. 'I'he malin aidvarntag' (t' these figurcs is

that tlieh ale estimatcd in a conlsistenit wax across coun-Third, a major triflictiltv inl tIme csc oi bToth pXi'ia- ti(s No claimn is made that thn nicthodology has ade-r\' and sec onldarv dclata siourceS St cIIIIclld Fi'ol qruatuefx soI,ecd the theorcti(al issuc's associated xwith po'-tin'hema that the income aid ctp'x)'i(ittI'i' stUV('S (,I-( limi's.

11_i1 X.ORIt) It N K

(10 RElSLAR(WII S -.1i S

in consumption. Economists concerned with the ket economies allovw the straightforward identifi-

measurement of living standards recognize that cation of quantity of production and value at

anticipated variations in income, wages, and con- the margin, subsistence economies mask both.

sumption needs over an individual's lifetime will Since production is mostly internal to households,

influence his or her behavior in predictable ways. formal records are seldom kept and the standard-

These variations have several implications for ized measurement of output is rare. Mlarket-

comparisons of living standards. At a hasic level, a determined prices may be non-existent for some

distinction is required between short-term and commodities and valuation becomes prohlem-

lifetime measures of living standards. atical.

Nleasuring living standards over longer time- These dilferences in accuracy of measurement of

periods raises an as vet unresolved conceptual either quantities or values in traditional and mod-

issue -how to treat family structure. The litera- ern economies handicap both cross-sectional and

ture on equivalence scales takes family composi- time-series comparisons. In both cases, there is

tion as predetermined, consistent with the use of risk of confusing compositional changes stemming

short-term income or expenditure measures. Over from shilfts in modes of production with real

the life cvcle, however, both fertility levels and changes in levels of economic activity. This situa-

the degree of family extendedness respond to tion calls for a system of reporting changes

economic forces. For example, as development and diflerences in levels of living that considers

proceeds, most societies undergo an uncoupling "hard" data arising from market transactions

of household units from extended families with and "soft" data from nonimarket acti -ities, which

internal economic and social linkages to smaller, may involve imputations of values and qluantities

more independent nuclear families. If choice en- in some cases. This sy-stem needs to be coupled

ters into the determination of familv structure, wsTith the physical measurement of shifts between

then per capita measures, whether or not thev nonmarket and market activities lor example,

are based on some concept of equivalence, mav the movement of work hours from unpaid family

give a misleading picture ofdifferences in perma- worker to employee status and the provision of

nent life-cycle living standards at a point in time food from the marketplace rather thani home-

or over time. production. The establishmenit of a time-series of

such data w-ould allow the tratcking of shifts in

Also emerging from past research is the impor- m i tun greatly,. ... ,modes ol produiction and wouldl, in turlil, greadv

tance ol measuring nonmarket activities that gen- e t

erate family well-being, based on their changing ca chancsk in lsofliving.al cnanes m leels cl hx1l\lgrole over the course of economic development.

At earlv stages of development, villages, some- Past cllefots to analyze the causes and coinse-

times even single extended families, often produce luences of diflerences in living standards have

virtuallv everthing thev consume and consume also led to the recognition that household data

virtually everything they produce. As develop- alone are riot sufficient. Coommunity -lata descrih-

ment proceeds, markets become bettcr organized ing the environment in which hoiuseholds operate

and more widespread. trade among households are also needed. Suclh data pro ide a means of

increases, and labor specialization becomes the assessing the public sector's contribution to living

rule rather than the exception. standards and are essential ingredients for eflorts

to understand hotuselhold behavior andl thus to

This movement from many closed subsisting predict household reactions to proposed policy

economies to one integrated market economy interventions.

causes a number of problems for measuring and

comparing living standards. These problems stem Ongoing Bank Research on Measuring

mainlv from the fact that a shilt from village or L ohousehold-level production to a market economy

is ofteni also a shilt from an unmeasured to a Several ongoing Banlk research proj(ets are aimed

measured segment of the economy. W\'hereas mar- at improving the empirical base for measuring

~ 111 V\NouI I) XNKh

St \l\1I1R 19X4 RL:EI I( 1 'Ni:'

and comparing living stiandards. Among tlhese include, but are not restricted to, a shortage of'are two United Nations Statistical Office projects well-trained enumerators. ol'computer hardwareundertaken wvith Bank support. The lirst, the and associated programming and data-processingInttrnatioiial Comparisons Project I CP ., is at- skills, and of overall survey management capabil-tempting to improve comparabilitv of national itv-. lUnited Nations Statistical Office. 1980b.acc)uiits, ,. -- tes among countries; the second, I'NHSC'P's activities are complementary with thethe Natio mnal Household Survey C apability P'ro- followning Bank study.grain NI-ITSCP Is concernied with fostering im-pro( cd capability to concluct householdt surveys The Living Standards Measurementb\ national statistical offices. In addition, the Studyl.iving Standards 'Measurement Stud&now unider way bv the Bank, is working to im- The Bank's Living Standar-ds Ieasurementl)rove the measurement and analysis of living Study LSMS) is working to improve knowledgestandards cross-sectionallv and over time within a and understanding of living standards at thegiYvin c(llltlt. microeconomic or household level. Its principal'he I'CP began with the proposition that inter- aim is to produce individual and household mea-national comparisons of national income and sures of living standards that allow comparisonsplroduct can, in certain circumstances, be useful in over time and across regions lor a given countr-assessing and understanding economic perfor- rather than among countries. The LSNIS is espe-mnance. The project recognized, however, that cially concerned with establishing survey and(ompa Irsos based on exchangc ratc conversions analytical recommendatioins that lie within themayL be flawed because exchange rate ratios do institutional constrainits that characterize nationi-nOt alw\ay s rellect diflelrences in purchasing power al statistical offices in developing countries.ailming currencies. To rectifv this, the ICP setOlt to gather price and expenditure data neces- To meet these objectives, LS\lH is exploring a

tpurchasing parities wde ran,ge oL issues that bear on the qualitNsar\ to construct pucaigpwrprte for wcountries. In principle, these would and effectiveness of survey operations. Concerns

allowt comlparlisonl oinations.al .n le, ,s e oGNP range from overall survex anncl cLuestionnalre de-fOr examnple based on constant "international sign, through data processing, documentation,ciollars.'' providing a more accurate assessmenit and archiving strategies, to more effective andappropriate ways of presenting and analyzingOf UndervlIng ldiflerences in real national income living standards data and of disseminating re-a(i wealth levels. However, the extensive data search findings. To achieve its objectives. therequiired f'Or the ICP benchmark studies are niot JSShsbe iie nofu hssrc.adilv avalill)le 'oi- many developing countries. LSNIS lhas becn divided into four phases: 11 I aret fadilitalte Compfrisons involoing sucl ounin- conceptual phase that reviewts existing methodsTo fciltat comarionsinvlvin suh cun- and develops new methods f'or collectinig andtries, the Banlk is lutiding, rescarch to dexise mcth-ods of producing I CT-type results with reduced analyzing household survey data: 2 a data col-dat a. L2l lection phase in which recommendations and al-

ternative strategies will be tested in the field; 3 a'I'hlc NHISCIP is an attempt to raise the quality- research phase demonstrating the policy applica-oifsurvey operations in nationial statistical offices. tions of' USNIS data; and !41 a disseminationAs no\w conceivet, the NHSCP is promoting a phase during which final recommendations willmulti-year program of clata collection based on be made available to national statistical offices.a series oflarge-scale in dependenit cross-sectionalsiurveys, ach with a differenit topical fo(us, suchas thl labor forcc, sources of iincome. and patternsOf C XIDlC1iitUrct. HovvC\ever, tht NI\ElSC'P's nmain 20. 1 lc lC P mcthodolog- is described irl }iravis. elal. ;1982I. Also. see "Reduced Information Methods ofthirust is not survev con tent fer .i, hut rather the International Real Income Comparsons" in .Ib.stracts qoJalleviation olf capability constraints lounid in Current Sludie,s: The 11orld Bantk Re,search Program 1983.m.alny develobping countr- statistical offices. These Washington, D.C.: 'The World Bank, 1983. pp. 41-43.

I 11I. \1'\ IR IA i3XN x k

1 2 RESEARCHII NEkS .1 Si e

The study's first phase is n0ow near completion. In late 1983, LSNIS began its field-test phase.

Its main output has been a systematic review of One living standards study is now under wav

existing literature on the measurement and anal- and two others are under negotiation. The first

ysis of living standards and the development of a such study will take place in the Ivory Coast,

multidimensional concept of living standards ap- where LSNIS is helping to establish a permanent

propriate to a developing country setting. (Bird- household survey capability that will monitor

sall, 1982; Deaton, 1980; Grootaert, 1983; Ho, et living standards through a continuous series of

al., 1981; Ho, 1982; Nlartorell, 1982; Sullivan, et annual survevs. The Ivory Coast model is based

al., 1982). The field and research experiences of on a "rolling panel" concept of data collection,

existing surveys were also documented (Booker, which combines features of'longitudinal data with

et al., 1980; Musgrove, 1982; Scott, et al., 1980: a series of independent cross sections.

United Nations Statistical Office, 1980a; Wahab1980). A volume is under preparation that will A second LSMS project is under negotiation

illustrate some of the uses of living standards with Peruvian officials. Field operations for this

data for policy analvsts, project are scheduled to begin in late 1984, andthe basic survey design will consist of a series of

The literature and findings generated by *work independent cross sections every three to five

in the first phase has been used to establish the years. Careful monitoring of these three models

essential characteristics of a Living Standards should provide a good sense of the costs and

Study (LSS). As they now stand, these are: benefits of alternative survey strategies.

*A questionnaire that ensures the collection of A third test of LSMS recommendations is pro-

the minimum set of information required to posed for Egypt, beginning in late 1984. The

describe and analyze both summary (income Egyptian Living Standards Survey would begin

and expenditures) and component (health, ed- with a relatively large national survev and then

ucation, housing) living standards measures. follow a subsample of households for an addition-

It w ill include information on market and non- al four vears.market income; prices; expenditures and home-produced goods and services; labor force be- Conclusionshavior, including activities of the self-employed; migration and work histories; host Even this selective review of research projects

communities; and an extensive set of socio- demonstrates the WNorld Bank's long-standing

economic characteristics; commitment to measuring and understanding

* a survey design that emp hasizes quality of op - differences in levels of living among and withineration over sits member countries. Such information is an

z oessential part of the Bank's efforts to monitor

* an emphasis on comparabilitv over time-ei- and evaluate consequences of its current lending

ther through a longitudinal design or by doing operations and to develop better lending strate-

the same survey with the same level of precision gies for the future.at regular intervals;

Current Bank projects, which are aimed at im-* a commitment to understanding dilflerences in proving the qualitv and usefulness of data on

living standards and changes therein over time, living standards, build on an indisputable lesson

as well as to their accurate measuremient; from the past: Data collected for purposes other

* a data-management system that takes into ac- than measuring living standards are not able to

count the long-term nature and value of living convev what we need to know about levels of

standards data and ensures easy access to them living and changes therein, no matter hows the

by researchers not directly associated with the data are adjusted. Advancing knowledge of how

survey operation; the development process affects the distribution

* a programmatic approach to policy research of well-being in a nation depends on gathering

that entails a permanent commitment to the new data, specifically designed for that purpose.

collection and analysis of'living standards data. Household surveys must be designed to gather

" THE m N(RLD BANK

concep)ts that are meaningful to the social, eco- Reportsllomic, and cultural conditions founid in develop-ing coUnltries and, also, must be based on metho- AhluxNalia Nloiitek S. 1976. 'Iincome Distribution and

dologies ilat rcogriz the oeratioal COn- Development: So St lized Facts. In an o-nomic Review 66:2 (Ma% 1976 jsirailnts l'aced by sur eve personnel in thosesettings. Further, thcse new surveys should pro- AhluwNia, Mtonitek S. 1977. "Rural Povcrty aod Agricul-\id e cat a tha t hoth measure levels of living and tural Performance in India l'' Inl 7wd/DoII)ei elop lmnicontaita the necessarv ardcitional variables to per- S/olise 1977 . Also. World Bank Reprint Scriesmit causal analysis. Mleasurement is an important N o. 6).first step in the process of effective policy formu-lation hut only the first step. Without some Ahluwalia. M\S.: J H. Duo . Pvatt; IN. Srini aintlita 101980. ''X\ho Bencefits front Economnie D)evelopenira?'Indication of whlv dilferences in living standards C'omnt in Imriein Economic Review 70:1 Marchexist coss-sectionally or why they persist over 1980time, we can do little more thani guess at appro-prmiat policy interventions, A framework for ac- Altinir, scar. 1982. '"Ihc Extent of Povertv in Latincomplishing the above has been developed bhX Anmerica." World Bank Staff \\orking Paper No.the Bank and is currently being tested in thefield.

Al tinir, Oscar and J. an SouLroUillC. 1980 'MeasuringThe research cf['Orts now under way Levels of' Living in latin Amrcica: An Overvicwwil impcl 1 of' Mlain Problems.'' W\orld Bank L.iving Standardsthe empirical hase for living standards measure- Measurement Studcv Working Paper No. 3.

ment, but a numbcr of unresolved conceptualissutes retmain. Among the most important are Anarid. Sudlir. 1983. Ineqsualil)y and Poverit' in Mllaolaia.the impvutation of' value of nonmarket resources Nexw York: Oxford Utnivcrsitv Press.and (consumptioni and( the appropriate treatmentof' familnk composition. These issues haxv two Birdsall, Naticv. 198(. ''Mcasuring 'limc Lse and Non-features that make them prilie candidates f'or market Exchangc.'' In W.1 . MlcGreevc\ cd.

* I /I,~~Ti,(-W'l d P,,-11 )ro-lv. L.cxiiitorn, Mass.: L.exingtonfurther productive rescarcb; eaclh has an impor- Books.tarit hearing on the placemen t of' indiVIdualsand liouselholdf in statistical distributions orlixing Birdsall .NancN. 1982. ''Child Schlooling and the MIca-standards, anc each is now sub'jet to a somewhat snleniciet of i.iving Standards.'' \orld Bank Livingarbitrai'v solution. Standards NIcasurenicnt StudyC. \Working Paper

No. 15.By all accounts, economic growth in the decade of' Booker-. \'illiamr Parniect Siigh: and Landing Savanc.the 1980s may \well be slower thanl it was in the 1980. "Hotusehold Survey Experience in Afriica."lI( s. (il price shocks and the recent severe World Bank L.ivinig Standdards Measurement Stud\,worldwide recession have forced, and will c'ontin- W\orkinig Paper- No. 6.tie to force m.ajor structural adjustments in man'developing cotintries. Bank researchers are being Braverman. A. anid 'I.N. Srinivasaii. 1981. "'Credit andasked onrc again to assess the p)rojected distribu- Sharecropping in Agrarian Socictics.'' In joiural.0 -3 o/ D)ecelopnenel l'E) onsnis 9. SDcccnIibcrl 1981 . .Also,tion of (osts antI benefits associated with alterna- ol'nelopmenk Econoic 9 D m 91 lWorld Banik Reprint Series No. 216.tive poli(les and to be prepared to measuLre thedistribultion of actuial costs and benefits when Chander. R.; S. (nasegarah; G. P\att; arid J. Round.tlio'\ occur. '[he improved cdata being collected 1980. "Social Accounts and the- DistribUtioin of' 1 i-and methods nowm being dceeloped tinder Bank oomc: I'hc M\alavsian Econoon in 197('." In 'Theauspices will puti these assessIncilts on a much Retie' o-f Inwotiet and II 'rIl/i 26:1 1980'. Also, \'orldfiirmer louiidlation thatn has been possible in the Bank Reprint Scries No. 143.

Chencr'. H.. e al. 1974. Redi. Iribiuian z'ilh (;rino'ih. LIon-doni: Oxford ['niversito, Priss.

- ~ ~ ~ li ,W 11 J, X)t I

14 Rl:SIAR,MI1 NEWS _ * -

Collier, Paul and Deepak Lal. 1980. "Poverty and Kravis, I.B.; A. Heston; R. Summers. 1982. 1 'orld Product

Growth in Kenra." World Bank Staff' N'orking Pa- and Income- International Comparisons of Real (;ross Product.

per No. 389. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

Datta, C. and J. Nleerman. 1980. "Household Income Lipton. NI. 1983. 'Poverty, Undernutrition, and Hun-

or Household Income per Capita in WN'elfare Coom- ger." WVorld Bank Staff Working Paper No. 597.

parisons." World Bank Stafl' Working Paper No.

378. Martorell, Revnaldo. 1982. "Nutrition and Health Status

Indicators: Suggestions for Surveys of' the Standard

Deaton, Angus. 1980. "Measurement of'Welfare: 'T'heory of Living in Developing Countries." World Bank

and Practical Guidelines." World Bank Living Stan- Living Standards NMeasurement Study, Working Pa-

dards Mleasurement Study., Working Paper No. 7. per No. 13.

Deaton, Angus. 1981. "'I'hree Essays on a Sri Lanka Meermani J. 1979. Public E.penditure in Malarsa Io

Household Survey." World Bank Living Standards Benefits and lI'hv? London: Oxford Universlty Press.

NIeasurement Sttidv, WNorking Paper No. t11Mrusgrove, Philip. 1982. '"I'he ECIEL Study of' House-

Fei, John S.H.; Gustav Ranis: and Shirlev W.Y. Kuo. hold Income and Consumption in l'rban LatinAmerica: An Analytical History." World Bank Liv-

1980. Grownith i Ph Equits: The Taiwan Case. London:Paper

No. 12 (also available in Spanislt

Grootaert. Christiaan. 1983. "'I'he Conceptual Basis of Pfeffermann, Guy Pierre and Richard Webb. 1979. "'Ile

NMeasures of Household Welfare and 'Iheir Implied Distribution of Income in Brazil." World Baiik Staff

Survey Data Requirements." In The Ren,iew ojfIncome Working Paper No. 356.

and 11'ealth, Series 29, No. I MNIarch 1983,. Also,

World Bank Reprinit Series No. 258. Patt. Grahanm. 1976. "'On thc Interpretation and Disag-

. . . , ~gregation ot- (lini-c-oeffic ients." 1In Tlic Eeonwnih 7011-Ho, 'Ieresa J. 1982. "''\easuring Health as a Component gain of uii c tI76

of'Living Standards.'' N'orld Bank Living Standards al. vol. 96 Jute 1976

Mleasurement Study, Working Paper No. 15.I'vatt, (;raham and jeffery I. Rouliid. 1977. "Social Ac-

. M 9. countinig Matrices for Development Planninig." InHo, T J.; W\.P. MICGrCCVCV; and C).E. Nleesook. 1981. 'rllf Rel'iezt of In-ome( anid ll 'eallh 23:41 19 7 7 . Also.

"Humanl Developmient as a Component of LivingStandards.' Paper prepared fOr the 43rd Session of' \orld Batik Reprinit Series No. 74.

the International Statistical Institute, Bucnos Aites, Rao, X.B. 1981. 'Nleastrement of Deprivation atid

Argentina, November 30-D)eccmber 11. 1981. Povcrot Based on the Proportion Spent ott Food:

Initerniational Labour Office. 1976. Emn5lotment, Grot AAn Explorator\ Exercise.'' 11 'old I)ere/oloasct 9:4

and Basic . VIee.ab: . Ofie-.I 1'orld Prgoblemit. Geneva. ( 1981 ). Also., \World Bank Reprint Series No. 193.

Scott, Christopher; Paulo lT.A. de Andre; and Ramesh

Jain, Shail. 1975 .Si.e DistIribulion af!Income: .1 (Compilatlion q/ Chander. 1980. "Conducting Surveys in Developing

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Brazil, NMalavsia, and the Philippines." World Bank

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od.s of Eslimation and Policr Analysis. London: Oxfoihd per No. 5.

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Needs, Interrosuschold 'Iranslers aiid the Extended vcrsity Press.

Familv.' Urbain and Regional Report No. 80-15. Sraffa P. ced.). 1962. The Works and Correspondence (J

'Ihe \orld Bank: Urban and Regional FEconiomics Dazsd Ricardo. Cambridge: Cambridge University

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Staf' Working Paper No. 463. versity Press.

li111ii. R I) BsNk

Sullivan, Jeremiah M.; Susan H. Cochrane; and William COMPLETED RESEARCHD. Kalsbeek. 1982. "Procedures for Collecting andAnalyzing Mortality Data in LSMS." World BankLiving Standards Mfeasurement Study, Working Pa- Standards of Rural Electrificationper No. 16. Sadrso ua lcrfcto

l'United Nations Statistical Office. 1980a. "'T'owards More Ref. No. 671-86Effective -Measurement of Levels of Living, and Re-v iew of Work of the United Nations Statistical Office Manv developing countries are planning or im-

LNSO) Related to Statistics of Levels of Living. plementing major extensions to their electricityWorld Bank Living Standards Measurement Study, distribution networks at significant levels of capi-

tal expenditure. Successful implementation of aUnited Nations Statistical Office. 1980b. 'The National rural electrification scheme depends on the dcy-

Household Survey Capability Programme-- Pros- namic interplay of the institutional framework,pectus. New York: United Nations 1980, load forecasting, design and planning, operation-D/UL/IINT-79-02/11. al and maintenance practices, methods of finianc-

ing, and assesstnent of its socioeconomic benefits\Visaria, P. 1979. "Demographic Factors of the Distribu- and costs. Following initial investment, continu-tlion of Income: Some Issues." In Economic and Demo- ous attention must be aid to financin andgraphic Changps in the 1980s. Proceedings of the Confer- m gence held in Helsinki by the International Unionfor the Scientific Study of Population (1979), pp. sumers over the long run.281-320. In this study, design criteria and standards of

Visaria, P. 1980. "Poverty and Living Standards in Asia: rural electriication in 12 developing countriesAn Overview of the' Main Results and Lessons of were critically evaluated. Concurrently, a com-Selected Household Surveys." World Bank Living bined economic/engineering methodology wasStandards Measurement Study, Working Paper developed to optimize the design of a rural elec-No. 2. trification network, based on variations in quality

and, hence, reliabilitN of supplv. Using this meth-Wahab, Nlohammed Abdul. 1980. "Income and Expen- oditure Surveys in Developing Countries: Sample De- osign and Execution.' World Bank Living Standards network, based on net economic benefits, wasNMeasurement Study, Working Paper No. 9. identified for regions in Costa Rica and India.

Given resource constraints in developing coun-tries, as well as widespread shortages of generat-ing capacity, a fully reliable supply of electricityto consumers cannot be assured in the process ofexpanding infrastructure. This shortcoming isparticularly severe in rural areas, where muchof the related construction is taking place, often athigh cost. WVhile 24-hour reliability of suppIlyremains a long-term goal, many users in newlyelectrified rural areas value general access toelectricity more highly than the reliability ofsupply.I

The approach used in this study considered sys-tem costs and costs incurred by consumers dueto poor quality of supply' and, therefore, sub-sumed the conventional criterion in power systemplanning of minimizing only the supplv costs.The model for optimizing long-range distribution

St Ni IlK IqX4

recognizes that diflerent standards of supplI im- determining wvhich of four plans designed to pro-

ply I ariations in quality and that both cost and vide electricity is the best from an economic

benefits will change when either quality or reli- point of view. The India study highlights the

ability is varied. C'onsumption benefits are afTec- significance of the costs incurred due to variations

ted principally by changes in: (a) the total load/- in voltage. If these costs had not been analyzed, a

demand and (b the shortage costs incurred by poorer qualitv system than the optimal "low/in-

consumers due to poor quality of' supply (low termediate qualitv" plan would have been chosen

voltage and outages). The total clemand met as the best from among five plans designed to

and, therefore, the benefits may depend critically provide electricity in the region studied.on the reliability of supply.

The studv was conducted by a team consistingFor a given price structure, an optimal long-run of' WVorld Bank staff member Mlohan Muna-

plan for expanding the distribution svstem and singlhe, WValter G. Scott (consultant), and re-

a corresponding range of reliability levels may searcher Romesh Dias-Bandaranaike.

be determined, which maximize the net socialbenefits of electricity consumptioni. A cost-benefit Reportapproach is used to assess the trade-oll's between ahigher-cost distribution system that ensures better Nlunasinghe, NI.; Scott, W. G.; and Dias-Bandaranaike.

qualitv and the benefits ofincreased consumption R. cdited bv K. G. JcchoutckL. "Optimizing Qual-

and reduced shortage costs. A detailed demand ity of Supply in Rural Electricity Distribution Sys-tems with Case Studies in Costa Rica and India

function with several novel features is derived 'lhe world Bank Energy Dcparrment forthcor-

from the theory of consumer preferenice, which ing

assumes utilitv-maximizing behavior, for estimat-

ing the impact of changes in quality on the A Framework for Agriculture Sectordemand forecast for residential, commercial, and Analysisindustrial consumers. The eflects of' other vari-

ables such as income, price of' electricity, and ReIf .V. 672-11

price of energy substitutes are also taken intoaccount. The residential model relates the cost The objective of this study was to develop a

of power outages during critical periods of' the framework for analysis of the agriculture sector.

day to household income via a labor-leisure using methodologies developed for economywide

trade-off. The commercial and industrial model planning and policy analysis and, in particular,

measures outage costs in terms ofspoiled product, permitting analysis at the subsectoral, sectoral,

value of idle factors of production, recovered and economy'wide levels. This framework facili-

output, and overtime production. These costs tates analysis ol'linkages among sectors and takes

depend on the frequency and duration ol' inter- into account macroeconomic spillover effects

ruptions as well as their time of'occurrence. Ad- from agricultural policy and, conversely, the im-

ditional costs in terms of' damaged appliances pact ofmacroeconomic policy on the agriculture

and motors due to poor voltage are also esti- sector. Its utility to policy analysts is that quanti-

mated. tative estimates of the effects of' a policv change,including income distributional impact, can be

The case studies in Costa Rica and India demon- derived.

strate that the theorv and methodology are em-

piricallv applicable; the lack of' data may be The foundation for the integration of analysis at

overcome bv appropriate survevs. The results three levels is the social accounting matrix, or

also show that both the detnand forecast and SAM as it is often called. I Essentiallv, a SANM is a

the total benefits of electricity consumptionthane totalenefuaits of euplecrici atcnuMpion 1. See, for example, R. Stone and G. Croft-Murray,change when qualit of supply is altered. orSoial Aounting and Eonomio s (London: Bowes and

specifically, the case study in Costa Rica shtws Bowves, 1959j; and F. G. Pyatt and J. 1. Round, "Social

that demand effects, via the calculated value of Accounting Matrices for Development Planning" in Re-

induced demand benefits, play a primary role in ziew of Income and 11'ealth 23:4 (1977), pp. 339-64.

COlSistenlt accounlting Iranmework for social and The first model for Portugal simulates a generaleconomic (lata. An extension of input-output ac- equilibrium of' relative factor and commoditvcountilng sy stems, it explicitly incorporates the prices. using mathematical programming tech-linkagge hetvcen consumer denmand and personal niques. The second model uses programmingincome to f'actor pavments via taxes and transfer methods to compute equilibrium prices andpavi-nents. It is also comprehensive in the sense quantitites for a large number of agricultur-of accounting for the circular flow oflincomes in a al commodities, while holding nonagricultur-market cconomr As in input-output analvsis, al prices constant. For this model, a variety ofthe level of disaggregration in a SAI can he fixed-price multipliers for macroeconomic spillov-tailored to the ob jecties of the analyst. Used as er effects were computed.a Iramanework for agriculture sector anal-sis, a

*i d gatedtor sic t d The results from experiments with these modelsSA-M\ is disa,ggregatedl to a signmficanlt degree fo otglidct:(~asgiiaticmwith respect to agricultural commodities and sub- lor Portugal dicate : a ea significant incomescctors, ancl thc rest othe econom is multiplier about 1 7 for exports, b an eenlarger export multiplier--about 2.6 for remitt-more i, - Il form. The framewvork can also

ances bx- expatriate wsorkers, since value-addedbc extended to include lood-accounting entr-iesad pin exports is only a fractioni of the value of suchoni the intalke of calories and protein for example,

exports, c) that incomes of the poor are moreas, dler 1vcel 1'rom thc cld ; 1l ol the demand?asIoerive fronaoitic the (1; ncomc .1i gofuth demand sensitive to export earnings than those of otherofood comodties by theinincome groups: d that membership in the EC,pora ted inl the SAM. likely for Portugal in 1986, and adoption of the

While the SAMl definies a structure to he analvzed Cornmoni Agricultural Policy would cause sub-anci provides benchmark data for estimation of stantial changes in the Portuguese pattern ofmo(lel para:mneters, its consistent and coomprehen- production and the related structure of' earningssive accounting frarew\ork is oflimited analy-tical and expenditures. e that in the short run, therevaluti unless it is combined with a theoretical would be a spurt in the production of MIediter-modCl]. In this research project. several relativelx ranean products. while in the longer run, growthsim11ple SXAIM-based models were construttctl in Woould also occur in cereals, and (fl over theOlrder to demiolnstra te their utilitv for a,griCUltUre longer term, FC' membership would permit in-sector analysis. Two classes of' tIo(lels --fixed- creases in production, investment, and incomespliice and flex-price were used. Flex-price mod- for f'arms of all sizes, with these effects mostels specifV encdogenous prices in a computable. likelv concentrated in poorer households.multiple-sector gencral equilibrium, ancd fixed-price modcls stutdv the eflects of shocks at fixed For Fiji, the agriculture sector of the ''Macro-li('(' iii the anler of input-output analysis. s-NI used was disaggregated while some non-

agricultural sectors were . i, -1. The result-The models developed, estimated, and tested in ing "Agri-SAI'' has 93 accounts, in contrast tothe prlo;'cct include two variants offlex-price mod- the 180 accounlts of the *Macro-S.AM."'' For ana-cls lor Portugal anid one fixed-price model (Ior ly\tical purposes, the "*Agri-SANI" was aggregatedI"iji. The set of mondels lor Portugal was used to to 31 accounts, vielding a ' Mini-SAM.'" Assum-studyv mcdium-terni needs for pli lic investment ing that average and marginal propensities toand the efletcts of progressive application of the consume are equal, accounting multipliers were(0111111011 om gliCuLtural Policy of' the European calculated and used to examine issues of export(ConlilmunlitV IC . 'I'he SANM used in these models promotion. import substitution, and agriculturalswas dclrived fo'oim a lirgtr SAM compiled by the development. The results from this analysis areGulbenkiani Foundation ol Agricultural Econorln- that: al F'or commercial agriculture and asso-ics Portugal bv meians, of aggregatioln into a ciaterl labor, exogenous increases in demand lor

Žlini-SA\I. ' ' up-dated first to 1974 and thentCto 1978. The 1iji model is based on a XA.I 2. See R. WV. Hav. 'I'he Food Accounting Matrix:dee\ loped b\ th)e Ov erseas D)evelopmreiit Admint- An Analytical Device for Food Planners," in Orford But-iSt ration Uii ted Kingdlomn; in 1. lein tf Econotnics and Slaflics 42 !1980), pp. 57-124.

18 t ..... ).W.t RI 1*SE \R ...............*I NX 1 1I \IM Rn

nonfood agricultural commodities (whcther from Thailand. It set out to analyze the costs and

export promotion or import substitution) provide benefits of the Thai government's fairly long-

the best prospects for increased incomes; (b) lor standing policv of providing replanting materials

farmers and laborers in subsistence agriculture, and cash grants to farmers participating in a

increased demand for staple loods has the stron- rubber replanting program. As conceived, the

gest impact on incomes; and (c) strong linkages program's objectives were to provide higher-

between the agriculture sector and nonagricultur- vielding replanting materials to farmers in order

al sectors produce significant increases in noniagri- to increase the acreage replanted with rubber

cutural incomes from increased agricultural ac- and to improve farm income. The costs of the

tivi ty. subsidv were intended to be recovered by a cess

The research was conducted by the NVorld Bank's on rubber exports.

Agriculture and Rural Development Department At first glance, the program appears to be effec-

under the supervision of Graham Donaldson and tive in that target rates of replanting 'have been

involving Pasquale Scandizzo and 'inh Le-SI, met; about I million acres have been replanted

Roger Norton, Jefl'erv Round, and David Thros- since 1962. The case study attempts to con-

bv (consultants). ic 92 h aesuyatmt ocnstruct more comprehensive measures of costs

Reports and efficiency and to consider the long-term im-

Le-Si, V. anid Scanidizzo. P. "Portugal atid the EEC: plications of intervention, and on that basis ques-Dect' and andirct EffePt PonrtheuRual an etor." EEtions the primajacie results. Some issues addressedDirect and Inidirec-t Ell((-ts oni the Rutral Sec-tor."i h nlsswr:Wsterpatn usdEconomies and Policy D)ivision Working Paper No. the analysis were: Was the replantig subsidy57. 'I'he World Bank: Agriculture and Rural )evel- program well-designed with respect to ameliorat-opment Department, September 1982. ing a well-defined market failure? Are there

signficant net gains or losses, once the full eco-

Norton, R.; Scandizzo. P.; and Zimmermanl. L. 'Foreign nomic and social costs of the subsidy are account-'I'rade and Factor In(comes in Portugal: Anl Applica- ed for? Do public sector programs retard thetion of a General Equilibrium Nlodel." Economicsand Policv Division Working Paper No. 54. 'I'hc development of potentially more efficient privateWorld Batik: Agriculture and Rural Development sector alternatives? What are the welfare, alloca-Department, March 1982. tive, and budgetary implications of an alternative

policy of eliminating both the replanting subsidy

Round, J. 1. "A Revicw of Expcrience in the Design and the tax on rubber exports? Is the institutionaland Use of'Social Accouniiting Nlatrices." Economies framework flexible enough to adjust to changes

and Polic's Division Working Paper No. 55. The n tWorld Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development tn the need for the intervention?Department. Julx 1982. The methodology is based on modeling decisions

ITrosbv, C. D., andd Mcoll. . I). "'A Social Accountitng at the farm-level on planting, replanting, andMlatrix for the Agricultural Sector ofFi 'ji: Estimation choice of production techniques for tree cropsand Policy Applications." Economieiis alid Poliex Di- with a lengthy gestation period. This frameworkvision Working Paper No. 53. 1h1 World Batik: analvzes such decisions in the presence of theAgriculture and Rural Development Department, Thai policv package using an export tax that

Dcccmhcr 1981. depresses farm-gate prices to finance subsidized

inputs; it allows the distortions -relating to

The Economics of Public Sector choice-of-crop decisions in new planting and re-

Support for Agriculture: A Case Study planting, the choice of techniques over the life of

of the Rubber Sector in Thailand the stand, and optimal time for replanting-tobe defined and quantified.

Ref. No. 672-62The researchers suggest that these losses in

Fundamental issues about the economic efficiency efficiencv could be considerable in terms of limit-

and distributional and fiscal effects of subsidized ing the new planting of rubber, discouraging

public services were explored in this case studv diversification of traditional rubber areas into

of public intervention in the rubber sector of more profitable crops, and encouraging farmers

A -I IF. U()RI I) I xNk

(in direct contradiction to the intended impact) CONFERENCEto adopt high tapping-intensities and to neglecta package of inputs and practices that can main-tain vields and prolong the productive life of therubber tree. Because the benefits of the subsidized Conference on Debt and theinputs accrue largely to land-owning households Developing Countrieswith higher incomes. and the burdens of theexport tax fall partly on lower-income households Red AX(). 673-32dependent on wages, the distributional effects ofthe intervention are also questioned. The consequences of' the current patterns in theOnce these distortionarv costs and distributional international flox of capital to developing coun-effects are accounted for, the case studv questions tries and the precipitous levels of' external debtwhether any sizable gains have been obtained. borne bx sexeral of' them are among the majorSince the rationale for intervention has changed issues of debt and development highlighted at asignificantly with widespread dissemination of recent 'NAorld Bank conference, held in Washing-information about and acceptance of higher- toIn I).C., between April 18 and 20, 1984.yielding clonal materials, it suggests that contin- Selected economists, based in Brazil, the Republicuation of' these policies will lead to significant of Korea, MNexico, Switzerland, and the Unitedlosses in the future. Furthermore, as the propor- States, were commissioned to present 11 paperstion of grant-receiving replanters relative to total fo- discussion before more than 450 participants.planlters has increased, the costs of the program including staff of the World Bank and the Inter-have begun to catch up with, and possiblv exceed, national \Monetarv Fund, international organiza-the revenue generated within the sector from ercial banks, and ov-tionS, Universities, c ommeca bakIndgxthe tax on exports. Although enjoving large sur-

ernmenit ministrieS.pluses in its early years, the program may nowface the prospect of large deficits. This convocation of leading academic and policyThe case study also considers the mechanics and experts on international debt issues was intended.as a reviev of the functioning of' the internationialCeasibility of' policy reform aimed at eliminatingasarve IIIfeaibiity polcx~refrm ime ateliinaingflinancial and banking systems and a forum todistortionary costs and bringing a market test to evaluate p als t modil\s or augment th1 l.1 t. . .............. 1 .ev aluate p)roposals to modify or augment thebear on ptIblic sector replanting activities. Thisinvolves a switch to direct cost-recovery on re- mechanisms through which international capitalplanting assistaince. The case studv provides esti- moves to developing countries. The exchange of'planingassstace. he asestuy prvids eti-research flindinigs also served as a brief to Bankmates of the efficiencv losses predicted on the and IlIFdstafl o terplcyasearchiel' ther,basis of this analvsis and foresees problems withI stal on the polic research of otheroreses roblms ithmainly academic, institutions, as a means to de-the financial mechanisms associated with present velng furter theuBank's o r earc o de-policies: it therefore concludes that prospects for veloping isurther the Banks own research on debt-reform appear to be reasonably good. Notwith- related Issuesstanding this conclusion, the assumptions and The conference sessions were organized aroundmethodology of the case study are the subject of four subject areas: management of national econ-continuing debate. omies in situations xvhere the level of foreignThe study was sponsored by the Bank's Countrv borrowing is significant: the critical f'actor-s andPolicy Department, and involved collaborative major lessons to be learned from the experiencessupport of the Ford Foundation and Thammasat of' the Republic of' Korea and of Mlexico, andUniversitv Thailand). their prospects for further borrowing and eco-

nomic growth; a description of' the internationalReport lending system and the implications of the debtBertrald, 'I'ret. iIhe Economics or' Public Scctor Sup- crisis for the flow ol capital to developing coun-port ior Agriculture: A C.ase Study of the Rubber tries: and how,, the international system mightSector in 'I'hiailand." Final draft. 'I'he World Bank: better facilitate such capital flows to developingC(ountrv Policv Department. forthcoming. countries.

In the first sessionf, centering on specific country session, entitled "Issues, Institutions, and Re-

contexts, Rudiger Dornbusch of' the \lassachu- forms," the international financial svstem was

sctts Institute of Technology discussed external viewed in a broader context: how it might incor-

debt, budget deficits, and exchange rate disequi- porate an array of' financial instruments with

librium in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. Richard greater resiliency to economic shocks, and thus

(Cooper and jeffrev Sachs of' Harvard University, better serve the interests of'borrowers and lenders

in a paper on "Borrowing Abroad: the I)ebtors' alike. The papers are: "International Debt Strat-

Perspective," sketch a Formal Framework For opti- egies in an Uncertain WVorld" by Paul Krugman

mal borrowing bv a developing country, using of' the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyv

the framework to discuss important limits to ex- "Debt and the Efficiencv and Stabilitv of the

ternal borrowing the issues of'solvenxcy, liquidi- International Financial Svstem" by Alexander

ty, and repudiation. They relate the magnitude Swoboda of the Graduate Institute of Interna-

and character or mix of external debt to macroe- tional Studies (Switzerland); and the "The De-

conomic management. The experiences of' the veloping-Country Debt Problem," by MIario

Republic of' Korea and NMexico are the Focal Simonsen, director of the Graduate School of'

points, respectively, of'papers by econiomists 1'rom Economics, Fundaao Getulio Vargas (Brazil,.

each countrv Leopoldo Solis and Ernesto Zedil-lo of the Banco de MIexico. and Yungchul Park. The conference papers are expected to be pub-

professor of economics ofthe Institute of Econom- lished in early 1985 by the XVorld Bank as part

ic Development, Korea Universitv. of its seminar series in a volume edited bvJohn T.Cuddington, formerly or Stanford Universitv and

In an overview of the experiences and prospects of currently with the WNtorld Bank, and Gordon WV.

major debtor countries, Arnold Harberger of the Smith, chairman of the Economics Department

University of Chicago identifies the sources of at NWilliam MIarsh Rice (Rice) University.

their current economic problems in a paper on

"Lessons for Debtor Country Mlanagers and Pol- The seminar was sponsored bv the World Bank's

icyrnakers," which draws lessons for debt man- Development Research Department and super-

agement, in particular, and economic manage- vised by J. NMichael Finger of that department

ment and strategy. in general. Daniel MIcFadden with the assistance of Gordon WV. Smith and

and Richard Eckaus and others of'the Massachu- Paula Holmes (consultants).

setts Institute of Technology and Gershon Feder

of' the World Bank-using a simulation model

including a two-stage probit analysis of balance of

payments and debt difficulties analyze the de-

terminants of growth and creditworthiniess lor

middle-income countries, based on recent experi-

ence, and assess their future prospects.

Two seminar sessions explored the "supply side"

of debt issues. Commercial bank behavior and

possible responses to current levels ol'indebtedniess

in borowing countries, and the implications of

that response for developing-country borrowing

is the shared focus of'papers by Mark Gersovitz ol'

Princeton University on "Banks' International

Lending Decisions: WNhat Do NVe Know?" and

by Jack Guttentag and Richard Herring of the

LTniversitv of Pennsvlvania on "Commercial

Bank Lending to Less Developed Countries,"

which discusses regulatory reforms for the inter-

nationial banking system. In a complementary

, "

NEW RESEARCH from relevant national and state authorities. Itbuilds on the data and observations gathered inthe earlier research project, mentioned above,Sociological Aspects of Dairy and it is expected to benefit from the collabora-

Cooperative Development Projects tion of Indian and visiting sociologists and an-(Small Study) thropologists. The project is being conducted bythe WVorld Bank under the supervision of RogerReJ. A-o. 673-27 Slade of the South Asia Projects Department

* ~and Alan Gelb of the Development Researc h.As a complemenit to an earl'ier NVorld Bank study anAlnGbofteDvop ntRsrcs a c n Department. A final report on the small study isof the effects of selected dairy development expected in December 1984.projects in India on the income, consumption,and nutrition of villagers, this small study willexamine the sociopolitical interaction between The Timing and Sequencing of a Tradethe dairy cooperative and the village.1 It aims Liberalization Policyat assessing, in a preliminary way, the effects ofvillage structure on the organization, operation, Ref No. 673-31and performance of the cooperative, and con-verselv. the impact of the cooperative on village The nature of a desirable path-the phasing andsociety. sequencing-of trade policy reforms, specificallyRelevant variables to be included in the study's those economic measures that lead to a contrac-Relevant varialles torbedincluded in their sy sf tion of effective rates of protection, is a significanttvpology of villages, according to their level of oiso nrsac ntaeplc.Peiudevelopment and social structure, are landhold- omprehensIv sesrh ave b onceredithing arrangements, predominant castes, power comprehensive studies have been concerned withgroupings communal activitiesi and an index of the causes and effects of liberalization policies,goell-being, based on the availabilitv of common rather than on the essential attributes of a success-wellbeig, bsedon he aailbilty ocomon f'ul policy path. This research project intends tosocial goods, such as schooling and medical care. lupoiyat.Tsreachrojetintnstsocial goods uchperas schooling and medcals clare fill that gap, as part of the World Bank's continu-The dairv cooperative societies will also be clas-

ing efforts to improve the quality of'policv advicesified according, to success criteria, embodying on trade reform to member countries. It'will notobjective assessments of their longevity, growth, o theresirm ito aembercofntrade iber-and breadth of participation and subjective at- explore the desirability of a policy of trade liber-trbts suha h.elnso rd r"omn alization; rather, the study focuses on alternative. . . .phasing and sequencing paths of trade policval possesslon" that villagers have in their cooper- Ithat would work best under alternative economicstructures. The question being addressed is not

The major objective of the study is to shed light on why countries should liberalize, but once theirthe widely debated issue of the extent to which policy objective is to liberalize, houx they shouldthe social and political structure of the village do so.affects the cooperative society and interactively F t p o tis affected by the dairy cooperative. Questions For the purposes of the study, liberalzation im-to be addressed are: How does the social structure plies a lowering of the rates of trade protectionof the village influence the operation of the coop- and a reduction in their variance; for example,erative? Can the cooperative remain aloof from In economies with import-substitution biases Inthe powver politics of the village and what, if effect, the introduction of trade policies providingany, impact does the cooperative have on thevillage's power structure? Does the existence of I. See "Production and Distributional Implicationsthe dairy cooperative make it easier to mobilize of Dairy Development Projects: Effects on Incomes, Con-the v illagers for other commonly shared goals? sumption. and Nutrition of the Poor" (Ref. No. 672-30) in

pAbstracts of Current Studies 1983: The 11orld Bank ResearchThe project will ivolve field work In the Indian Program, (Washington, D.C.:, 'I'he World Bank, 1983),state of' Madhya Pradesh, subject to clearance pp. 107-109.

incentives to exportables would reduce the vari- any level of long-term benefits from liberalization,

ance of protection across sectors and thus, consti- which will maximize benefits and minimize costs

tute liberalization. Complete liberalization would during the transition process. Identifying factors

mean the elimination of all protection (with but a affecting the magnitude of costs and benefits im-

very few exceptions) and a near-zero variance plicitly addresses the issue of survivability of such

in the distribution of incentives among the sectors reform, which depends, in part, on economic

of an economy. The primary emphasis of the efficiency, the political process, and the impact

study is on commercial policy, that is, those mea- of policies on income distribution.

sures that involve an economy's internationaltrade. The study covers episodes of trade liberalization

in 18 countries. Each study will incorporate sub-

Specifically, starting from protection, many paths stantial quantitative and descriptive evidence

of policy change might be conceived as leading within a common methodology, from which firm

towards a liberalized trade regime. Policy prefer- statistical inferences will be drawn. The countries

ences, presumably favoring fewer adjustment were selected on the basis of their experience

costs to the economy of a given country, would with trade reforms and the potential value of

depend on a multitude of political and economic their findings to similar economies. Liberalization

circumstances and attributes, all of which change within the context of centrally planned economies

over time. Yet, elements characterizing a pre- will not be included, however. Individual re-

ferred path can be expected to be common to a searchers may also expand upon specific country

sufficiently large number of countries, over long aspects of their research.

stages of development, so that general principles The research will be conducted in two parts: I)

may be identified.Threerhwlbecnutditopas:I separate country studies, which should be useful

The fundamental question, then, is: What are in their own right, and 2) a cross-countrv svnthe-

the determinants of the timing, phasing, and sis of inferences, based on evidence from the

sequencing of a successful and sustainable liberal- individual studies. Each country studv will be

ization policy? Some of the issues to be addressed organized under the headings-economic back-

are: What are the appropriate circumstances for ground, liberalization policies, and inferences

the introduction of such a trade policy? Should drawn for the timing and sequencing of policy

the process involve only one or many stages? If changes. By pooling data, estimates, and findings

many stages, what are the attributes of those from all countries, relationships between the suc-

stages? At what speed, with what intensity, and cess or failure of liberalization efforts and the

over what length of time should the process take attributes of economies, trade and other policies,

place? What is the role of tariffs, and of export and the sequencing of reforms are likelv to be

promotion, in the process? Should different sec- established.

tors of an economy be treated uniformly, and if The countries selected, with the period of liberal-

not, how should alternative treatments be ap-plied? What is the relationship of trade policy ization episodes indicated in parentheses, and

and other policy measures? What package of the principal authors of the individual studies

policy measures will ensure the sustainability of are: Argentina (1967-1976-Domingo Cavallo);

trade reform? Brazil (1964 to early 1970s-Donald Coes); Chile(1970 to present--Dominique Hachette and Ser-

By definition, the optimal policy of trade reform gio de la Cuadra); Colombia (1966 to pre-

would maximize the present value of net output sent Mario Blejer); Greece (1953, 1962, and 1970

by an economy; yet circumstances abound in to present--George Kottis); Indonesia (1968-1971,

policy reform episodes wherein large net benefits late 1970s-Mark Pitt); Israel (1955-1975-Na-

in one stage of implementation may lower long- dav Halevi); Republic of Korea (1964-early 1970s,

term benefits. In this complex process, political, as 1979 to present Kim Kwang-Suk); Pakistan

well as economic, conditions play a significant (1959/60-1964/65, 1971/72, 1979,480 to pre-

role. In exploring this process, World Bank re- sent--Stephen Guisinger and Douglas Nelson);

searchers will attempt to identify factors, given Peru (1979-1982--Julio Nogues); the Philippines

(late 1950s to present- Geoffrey Shepherdl; Por- adequate to handle rapidly the large caseload oftugal '1955 to present Jorge de MIacedo:; Singa- farmers, mostly smaller ones, who require legalpore 1967 to present -Bee-Yan Roberts); Spain title to their newly acquired land. Also, complex(1958-1975 -Guillermo de la Dehesa); Sri Latrk(a legal procedures often exacerbate problems and1977 to present-Sandy Cuthlbertson): Turkey cause delavs. Similar difficulties prevail in coun-(1958-63, 1964-74. 1974-79, and 1980 to pre- tries wvhere land has become available throughsent -Tercan Bavsan and C'harlie Blitzer:: U';lrog- the subdivision of former colonial estates or whereia r 1959. 1974 to present -Edgardo Favaro and land scarcity is a relatively new phenomenon.Pablo Spiller): and lfllgoslazia (1965-1971 -OlHavrvlvshvn l Standard economic theory suggests that insecuri-tv of owvnership wvill negatively affect farmers'The collaborating institutions are: lrgeinina: F'uII- incentives to invest and their abilitv to obtaindacion Mediterranea; Brazil: Funda,ao Centro credit, especiallv from formal credit institutions,de Estudos do Comercio Exterior (FUNDEX:F and that these effects, in turn, tend to reduceChile: Instituto de Economia, Pontifica Universi- farm productivity. Yet very little quantitativedad Catolica de C'hile; Colombia: Fedesarrolo*; research has dealt so far with the link between(Greece: Institute of' Economic and Industrial Re- title security and farm productivity.search IEIR : Indonesia: Bureau of' Statistics*;Israel: Maurice Falk Institute; horea: Korea De- The World Bankis frequentIN involved in projvelopment Institute*; Pakizslan: Pakistan Econom- proxiding secure ownership of land to farmers,ic Development Institute :PEDIL*; Peru: Banco and in discussions with member countries onC'entral dc Reserva del Peru; the Philippine: Phil- governmental policy regarding issues of landippine Institute for D)evelopmeit Studies PIDS ownership. This research project aims at quanti-and Asian Development Bank; XDB'*, s ffvying the effect of increased securitv of'land own-National University; Spailn: Ministrv of Com- ership on farm productivitv in Thailand, as acase studv. Cross-sectional data will be collectedmerce; Sri Lanika: Presidential Tariff Commiussion:and )'tguoslarlia: Institut koIonomskih Nauka, Bel- from 600 farmers in three agroclimatic environ-grade and Institut Ekonomskilh Razis Kovanja. ments in the countrx and with different owner-Llubljana*. ship status, implying varying levels of securitv.

This cross-sectional study bv World Bank r e-The study will be conducted by the WN'orld Bank searchers is viewed as a complement to a longitu-under thie supervision of' Armeane Choksi and dinal studv of the socioeconomic impact of landDemetrios Papageorgiou of the Country Policy titling to be conducted over the next six years,Department and Mlichael MJichaely (consultant), by the (7ov)ernmcnt of Thailand.who wvill jointly be responsible for a Voluine sVn-thesizing its results. Assessment of' the impact of secure ownership onproductixitv requires empirical clarification of'

several related aspects. Among them are: a ) iden-Land Title Security and Farm tification of factors which make some farmersProductivity: A Case Study in more likely to undertake the monetary and non-Thailand monetary cost of title acquisition in circumstanceswhere the title-granting administrationi is inade-

Ref: .o. 673-33 quate: b) the relationship between f'arm invest-ment and ownership security; and ce the role of

Insecure ownership of landl is a conditioni faced secure land titles in 1 Z fostering better agriculturalby countless farmers in developing counitries. The practices, such as the adloption of soil and watersources of insecuritv of title in diflerent countries conservatioi measures and the use of new typesand regions depend on historical patterns of'land of seed and fertilzer. 2 the demand for anclacquisition and settlement. In many countries supplV of' short- and long-term credit, and 3where substantial land refoi-m and redistribution land market transactiols.schemnes have been implemented or are ongo-ing administrative inirastructure has not been *hIatj\t.

24 jusi. SRt li t St \l\NINIER 19X4

Econometric analysis. using standard regression The relationship of'private investment to different

analysis as wvell as qualitativc choice models and agroclimatic conditions, public infrastructure and

limited dependent variable models where appro- irrigation, prices, rural credit institutions, and

priate, vill he applied. F'ield work is expected to individual characteristics of l'armers (such as tarm

be completed by April 1985, and final results experience, education, and ownership of assets)

are expected in early 1986. Close coordination are poorly understood. World Bank researchers

xvith the Thai government study is expected to plan to assess these relationships quantitativelv.

yield mutual benefits and advance the methodol- The studv will also focus on hoxv agroclimate

ogy for monitoring and evaluating land titling and infrastructure influence the expanision and

projects. Study results are expected to be of relev- success of financial institutions and will econo-

ance to Bank operational staff at both the project metricallv analyze the impact of'those institutions

and sectoral level. on private farm investment in different agrocli-

matic zones with varying physical and humanThe study is a collaborative eflort involving the capital endowments.

Agriculture and Rural Development Department

of the World Bank and the Clenter for .Applied The project builds on recent advances in the

Economics Research at Kasetsart University and theorv of rural financial intermediation that stress

the Human Resource Institute at Thammasat the importance of risk and information, personal

Universitv, both in Bangkok (Thailand ). The characteristics, collateral and collateral substi-

study is being supervised by Cershon Feder of tutes, and the fundamental material conditions

the Bank's Agriculture and Rural Development of agricultural production.' It is hypothesized

Department, and involves staff member Enrique that it is much more difficult to create a sound

Rueda-Sabater of'the East Asia and Pacific Coun- svstem of finiancial intermediation wherc the

try Programs Department, and Professors Ton- agroclimate is risky, xxhere seasonality is pro-

groj Onchan, Chira Hongladarom, Yongvuth nounced, and in regionis remote from urban cen-

Chalamrwong, James Roumasset. and Daniel Nfc- ters and poorly connccted via roads and commu-

Fadden (consultants . nications. Another hypothesis to be investigated

is that special efborts by governments to expand

rural credit, such as compulsory expanision of

Agricultural Investment, branches of' credit institutions and agrictiltural

frirultural alending quotas, may be effective in well-endowvedInfrastructure, and Rural Financialrein.btmyflrinporoes

Maretsregions, hut may f'altc- in pooreir ones.Markets

The project will also estimate hoxw returiis to

ReJ .Vo. 673-35 different physical investments are affected by

preexisting capital stocks and by individual char-

This project explores the determinants and con- acteristics and endowments. The process by

sequences of private and public investments in which farms groxv, stagnate, or decline involves

agriculture and the impact of rural financial in- difTerential success not onlN in production and

stitutions on private farm investment in India. marketing within a year, but more importantly.

Investment processes are of fundamental impor- reflects the relative success with which f'armers

tance for agricultural development. Apart from handle the accumulation of capital, which results

research and extension activities, investments in from inheritance, marriage, and investment.

animals, machines, land improvements, irriga- Landless workers can only become tenants or

tion, roads, communication networks, and mar-

keting facilities are the major sources of agricul-

tural growth in developing countries where high t. Sce Hans P. Binsxxanger and a ark Rm Rnsen-densities imply the absence ofa landDterminanis o Pro-

population tduction Relations in Agriculture," Agricultural Research

frontier. Also, physical investments in land and Unit Discussion Paper No. 5 {'I'he World Bank: Agricul-

infrastructure are often preconditions to the ture and Rural Development Department, October 5.

adoption of techniques for intensive agriculture. 1983).

1; ilit \\DiRIA ti \CNK

owner-operators by investing in draft animals, Capital Accumulation and Formaltools and implements. and eventuallv land and and Informal Credit Markets in Westland improvements. Existing research on income Africadistribution throws only partial light on the agro-climatic, personal, institutional, and policy fac-tors wvhich influence -positively or negatiVe- Ref. .\o. 673-361\--success with the investment processes.C'ross-sectional research on education, adoption This project, to he conducted in western Africa. isof technology, and credit shows clearly that many a companion In terms OF focus and methodology

are related to to the above project on "Agricultural Investment,oinership of assets aid to parental inruence, ax s Infrastructure and Rural Financial Nlarkets"well as to credit policy and other public interven- aRef. No. 673-35) in India. It is aimed at under-tions, vet their colmbined effect on capital accu- standing the processes, functions, and forms ofmulation over a life cvcle has never been capital accumulation, savings, and informal cap-measured. Thus, the causal relationships and ital markets in the Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelianinterrelationships are not well under-stood. In zone of Upper V'olta and Niger. Improved under-addition, the researchers will measure the extent standing should lead to insights, policies, andofsocieconomic mobilitv in diflerent agroclimatic guidelines on how to improve rural financialre,gions of rural India and then relate the relative intermediation and savings mobilization in thesesuccess and failure of' individuals over the long agroclimaticallv risky areas.run to the investment process and the public The recent literature on credit has focused oninterventions that influence investment. the enormous problems of official agriculturalThe research will draw upon two longitudinal credit institutions in developing countries; thedata sets from India: a) the All-India Debt and major problcms are lack of savings inobilization,Investment Survev of the N\ational Council of- undesirable distributional impact, poor financialApplied Economic Research XCAERi a na- analvsis of both the institutions and borrowers,tional probabilit\ sample of more than 3,000 and deficient management and consequently highhouseholds interviewed over three years from operating and capital losses. This studv will em-1969 to 1972 and again in 1981 and b) a compr-e- phasize, by contrast, the largelv neglected issuehensive data set- compiled by the Internationial of informal credit. Mloreover, credit wvill be ana-C'rops Researclh Institute for the Semi-Arid Trop- lvzed jointly with capital accumulation andics s ICRISAT - on 240 households in the semi- nonfinancial savings of' the rural groups in ques-arid tropics of India over a nine-year period. tion.The pa'el natUre of both data sets, the wide The researchers wvill probe the issue of how thegeographical coverage of the NCAER data set. hl r fi . . .and the availabilitv of annlual observations, al- o f i i rareas in West Africa differ from those of urbanmost coVerig a cdecade, in the ICRISAT data a. . . ........................ areas, andl how thev differ across agroclimatiset oftecr a Luni(;Ue opportunlltv fo(r dlescriptiveci re zones, according to the levels of' technology usedstudies of investment processes, as well as tor and of integration wvith interregional and interna-advanced economiietric analysis of complex ISSUtoS* ~tional t'actor markets.'of causalitv and interdepenidenice.

The researc h is being undertaken by the World The approach to be used emphasizes the impor-Bank's A,griculture and Rural D)evelopment Dc- tance ofthe accumulation of phNsical capital bv apartment, under the supervision of' Hans Bin-swanger and Briani Argyle, in collaboration wvithM\Iark Rosenzxveig and Guillermina Jasso. both I. Ser Hans P. Binswanger and John Nlclntire,(Behavioral and Nfatcrial Determiniants of Productionof the UTniversity of Minnesota, Premi X'ashishtha Relations in l.and Abundant T'ropical Agriculture." Ag-of the NCAER. and the staff of the Economics ricultural Research Unit Discussion Paper No. 17. T'hclprogram o(i ICRIS.AT. The research is expected World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development De-to be completed in late 1986. partment, January 1984

26 RE.SE MRU II !1 S _st _I_NIER 1984

f'armer as his self-insuring mechanism in situations oping countries, is co-sponsored by the NVorld

where intertemporal capital and insurance mar- Bank and the Government of the Netherlands.

kets are poorlx developed. It also emphasizes It is part of a rnore extensive Bank research and

that livestock is the major physical asset where work program on the trade policies of' the de-

land cannot be bought and sold. The investiga- veloped and developing countries. Within the

tion of' savings and investment in the form of project, several studies hv trade policy experts

livestock, and the measurement of rates of return will explore the determinants of trade policies,

to such investment will constitute a major part the impact of protective barriers, the use to which

of the project. administered protection by members of'the Euro-pean CommI-nity is put. and the future of' the

The project's data base will be about 200 house- iOi international trading sy stem. The studies wil

holds in the village-level studies of the Interna- quantitatively anaIN-ze the efllects of particulartional Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid aspects of European trade policy oi1 developinlgTropics (ICRISAT) which have been continu- countries.

ouslv followed since 1981. Additional data oncredit, savings, livestock holdings, and retrospec- The trade policies of the European Community

tive data on capital accumulation will he gath- (EC) are central to the discussion. j. WNaelbroeck

ered in 1984 and 1985. The descriptive and econ- of' the Brussels Free University Belgium) will

ometric analvsis will be similar to that of the assess the dynamics and factors influencing the

project on rural financial intermediation in India development of the EC's trade policy. A. Sarris,

(see Ref. No. 673-35 above. deputy-director of the Cetiter lor Planning andEconomic Research (KEPEj in Greece, wvill look

Hans P. Binswangervofpthe norld Bankis ngricul- at changes in the trade policy of' Greece upon

ture and Rural Developmenlt Department will entry into the EC; while another paper will tocus

supervise the study, in collaboration wvith Garry on how the enlargement of the EC with theN.~o howsene th enlargementl of' tete ECIwthlth

N. Christensen consultant and Peter Matlon accession of Greece in 1981 and possibly Portugal

and Helga \'ierich of the ICRI SAT stafrin Qua- and Spain in 1986-will afect its trade with

gadougou ( Upper Volta ). The project is expected developing cotintries.

to be completed in late 1985.A\s is generally acknowledged, tariffs are a minor

European Trade Policies and the element in current systems of' trade protection.

South In Europe, many of the nontariff barriers to

Re]. N 67337 trade are adrninistered by individual countries,not the EC as a bloc. P. -Messerlin of the lTniver-

The importance of an open trade regime and site de Lille (France) will undertake an assess-

the comparative success of outward-oriented ment of the benefits and costs of import

strategies of'economic development among devel- protection, using a case study of' France and

oping countries have been documented in several investigating the "wedges" that protect F'rench

Bank research studies.' The viability of' such a industries from foreign competition; he will derive

strategy depends, of course, on the openness of estimates of the tariff equivaleints of these restric-

the international trading system that has pre- tions. In another paper, L. Mennes of' thc Neth-

vailed since the mid-1940s. The World Bank, as a erlands Economic Institute will calculate the

source of' policy advice to developing countries, effects of trade in manufactured goods on employ-

which have become increasingly significant part- ment in developing countries. He will make rough

tiers in wvorld trade, requires continuous informa- estimates of the costs to developing couLntries of'

tion on the nature and eflects ol' trade policies being forced by import restrictions on the prod-

being implemented by major trading countries ucts of their labor-intensive industries requiring

and regions. large amounts ol' unskilled labor (wherein devel-

This project, focusing specifically on the tracde l Scc, tor cxamplc, The l'Id /)f'ni RepOrt

policies ofthe EurOpean ecornomies ti.-f-zi., devel- 1981 Ncw York: Oxford Univcrsii\ Press 198131

LIi I tl \\(ORI I) H \Nh

oping economies generally have comparative ad- have declined to use the NIFA to prevent thevantage, to shift to other types of exports. entry of applicable imports from developingA detailed assessment of the impact of EC's Com- countries. 2mon Agricultural Policy on Europe wvill he con- In an overview. G. Lafay, deputy director of theducted by TNI. Gerken of the Kiel Institute of' Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'InformationWorld Economics (Federal Republic of Germa- Internationale (CEPII) in France will survevnvi, while the policy's impact on the developing the shape of the wvorld trading system, discussingworld will be evaluated hb W. Tims, director of among other topics the structural changes thatthe Institute for Food Policv Rcsearch of Amster- are likel1 to occur in the glohal economy overdam Free University the Netherlands,. This lat- time. A distillation of issues in trade relationster studx wvill clraw upon projects on global ag- hetween Europe and the developing world wA-illricultural modeling, one sponsored hy the he undertaken by NJ. Wolf research director ofabove-mentioned food policy research institute the Trade Policy Research Centre (United King-and the other by the International Institute of dom who will attempt to identify the economicApplied Syistems Analysis ( Austria. themes around which the wvorld trading sNstem

will evolve. Consolidated assessment of the nu-AI group of papers will examie several major merous papers prepared for the project are cx-forms of Eturopeani administered protectioni and pected from NI. Pekkacern ol the Planning Officewill focus on the hypothesis that such protection is Of the Government of Thailand and by L. Jaya-particularly restrictive of developing-country ex- wardena. administrator of the Ministry of Tradeports. More so than other formiis of protection, of the Goxernment of'Sri Lankaadministered protection provides opportunitiesfor negotiation and interpretation which, if' ex- Drafts of the above-mentioned papers are expect-ploited, can reduce its restrictive impact. Howev- ed to he available in mid-1985, followved bv theirer, personnel wA-ell versed in the legal and pulblication as working papers by the co-sponsors.administrative technicalities recquired of such The project is being co-directed by J. Michaelnegotiation are in relatively short supplv, in devel- Fin,ger of the WVorld Bank's Development Re-oping countries, duc to their only recenit role as search Department: Loet Mennes, director ofmajor exporters of manul'actured goods I. the Netherlands Econornic Institute and professorTharakan, director of the Institute for l)evelop- at Erasmus Universitv, Rotterdam 'the Nether-ment at the University of Antwerp Belgium, lands and Jean Waelbroeck, professor at Brus-and P. Didier, lawyver andcl mt ember of the Brussels sels F'ree Universitv i BelgiumBar iBelgium will analyze the adminnistration ofEC: antidumping and countervailing duty reguhl-tions and identifV the lactors influencing the otf - Health Care Demand and Resourcecome of related litigation. In a separate study, Mobilization: The Case of PeruE. Grilli, secretary genieral of the Mlinistry ofPlanning of the Government of Italy, will review Ref vo. f73-38decisions to grant industrial subsidies andl theextent to which such measures ha\e indluced tie This project will examine the impact of user feesItalian government to introduce protective mia- on the demand for health services, using Peru as asures in order to reduce the budgetarv burden case study. In health, as in other social sectors,of support to wveak industrial sectors. The MIul- issues concerning user fees, cost-recoverv, andtifibre Arrangement (XIFA . wA hich restricts trade resource allocation are eliciting increased interestin textiles, will be the fOcus of WV. Hamiltoi Of' in developing countries, as finance ministries con-the Stockholm In1stittLC for International Eco- front macroeconomic realities that constrain so-normics Sweden , who will attempt to explaindiffringapproachles to MIFA al)l)hications by par- I- For the text of' the arrangeme'nt. see "Ar-ticipant coontrites. For examiple, the Federal Re- rarngernent Regarding Interniational I'rade in 'I'extiles''publi(c of Germany andc Ftrance, on occasion, GATT 1974-2.

28 Rl sul %R( ii NI,N _s St \1FER 1984

cial program spending, while service ministries stica . which is administering the household sur-

struggle to meet ambitious seectoral goals requir- vey. Funding for data collection has heen provid-

ing substantial investment. Attention has focused. ed mainly ht- ITSAIJ). with support irom (GTZ

in particular. on the possiblities fiOr and likely and the Government ol 1'erti through a World

consequences of charging users fies over a wvider Bank health project loan.

range of publicly provided services or increasing

the level of already existing charges. The lack of The oseho lds stiree will cov er more than 12 ,000

empirical evidence on the response ofi users to households, selectet on a clustr r- il,l ble -

changes in healt,h care prices and their related stratified, random hasis. The sampl) will he na-

perceptions of' quality is a major impediment to tionally representative, and will also lo\i(le de-

countries seeking to improve policies on cost- tails on 17 regions in Peru covering urban and

recovery and resource allocation in their healtlh rural areas in coastal, mounltaini, and jungle

sectors. zoIIes. The questionnaire, although designed toserve multiple purposes, will include several sec-

This study wvill address such questions as: How tions expressly tor this sttdy Q,iestiins xill he

w-ould the utilization ofhealth services he af'(cted asked regarding episocles of illness for household

by higher or first-time user it'es' Would users memhers, the sources ancl nattre of health ser-

shift from some tvpes of healthl care l)roiders to vices received, including maternal and infant

others? WVoUld some user-groups itIlefined, for care, maternty- history amounts and forms of

example. by income-level or by distribhition of l'e piivments, aiting time and travel time,

illness' fare better or worse than others? Would sources and levels of income and assets, char-acter-

preventive and curative health services he aflect- istics of'the home and C(mmtinitv, and standard

ed differently by the proposed rates? Hown much sociocconomic indicators.

in additional resources would be mobilized? The survey of health care providers will be con-

centrate on six areas subsan]1pled l'romn the house-The analysiss wi ll also explore thc rolc of' other

Th analysis hold survey districts. Inkn-mriation will befactors influencing the demanld for health care.including the quality. perceived or actial, of' obtained from thcse providers on the types olservices ofrred quaesx cr-carc or asIa o

.,,, ,'.16 ', srxles oUerd. r'CSchaged. ut'fizat'onl tgures,

ser\vices available, taking into account traditional I. . , , ,.supply flactors size aicd compostionl of'statE', num-

health practitioners, as well as modern public

and private providers: costs othe- than f'cs e time h)er 0Iheds . accessillitv factors location relative

and travel costs, health status, b ased main*v on to user populations. hotirs of operatiotn, restric-healith status, st mtam (ln tioIIs on1 who can be served for instance, social

reported svmptoms: socioeconomic level: environ-

mental conditions in thc home and community; setunix participants only tiahitv incators

and education, status oif drug stocks, condition of equipmelntand facilities, degree of overcrowdingy, average

length ot' consultation, and whatever cost dataTwo closely linked survey-s, (nc of households (usually very limitcd' are available.

and the other of health care providers, will pro-

vide the principal data for the study.' Bothl stir- The analysis will containl a descriptiv com-

ve's are being conducted in 1984, and are the ponent, tracing current patterns in health care

product of a collaborative eflort involving the utilization and related topics in tllc co(ntext of

World Bank, the United States .Agency for In- Peru. amId a modeling component. drawing upon

ternational Development USAID), the Pan- recenit findings in the literature on the economics

American Health Organization, D)eutsche Ge- ofleialth care. Data oii uscrs' reponrtcd -willing-

sellschaft flier Technischie ZLtsammenarbeit

iGTZ - the agency for techiiiieal c ooperatioin ol

the f'ederal Republic of' Germany, the United

States Center for D)isease Control, the United It Researcht p Rjt'm. ' '3L2(i(tiOO awi ilornlal Sec-bor Em .pi ovmei o'' R(- ci(. N 033 -%e xiii tli ra .,, (,mi 01 ,f-

Nations Statistical Office, the Government Orf the samc staff' in Perutt for a rclated ltut s('paratc stirvex

Peru's N1inistry of Health and 1'eru's nationial cffort ait a later date. Se Rcnscavh \V.1c. v,I. '5, no. I

statistical burteiu nIiistittito (Nacional dc' Estaidi- Spring 1984-, pI 19-2I.

2IIIK UW)IRI) 1B.xNk

ness-to-pay ' lor health care ser\vices will be tested NEW ANDagainst their actual behavior. FORTHCOMINGOnly a handful of previous studies have attempt- PUBI CATIONSed to investigate the determinants of' health care UB L A TIONdemand, and the results, due to data limitations,have left many questions unanswsered. 2 Research The WVorld Bank Catalog of'Publications--issuedcontinues on whether nonprice factors, particu- annually and aviailablejfree of charge-contains thefulllarlI perceived quality of' health care, are more range of'publications distributed bv the Il'orld Bank.dominant than price in determininig health carc ,)•ezeral formal series. notably the WTorld Bank Staffchoices by households, and whether, therefore. 11' ,'. Papers, Technical Papers, Commodity IIork-existing fees for public health services could be ing Papers. and Country Studies. are sold at the pricesraised substantially without appreciably affecting indicated belo. To ensure prompt *;.,...'.' of requestsutilization. If so, it wvould be useful to know including orders for books published commerciallv forunder w-hich conditions and for Nvhich groups in a the lI'orld Bank, include payment where applicable.population a range of relative price inclasticity Other publications, such as the 11 orld Bank Reprintwould apply, and the likely implications of oli- Series, are available at no charge. All1 publicationsc]es that do alter the quality of service being mentioned hereunder mav be obtained from:prov,ided.

The study* will be coniducted by W\ orld Bank World Bank Publicationsstaff members Da\id dc Ferranti of the Popula- P.O. Box 37525tion, Health, ancd Ntutritioni Department and Washington, D.C. 20013, U.S..Jacques xan der Gaag of' the Dvc\elopment Re-search Department, and Ns .\Avi Dor consultantin collaboration xvith Phillpl) M\usgroe Pan-A\merican Health Organization) and stafl' of NEW BOOKSUSAID. Collaborating Peruvian institutionis lin-clude the Ministryi of Health and the InstitLt)WNaCional (le Estadistica. World Development Report 1984

Sev\enth Annual Edition, The World Bank

Oxford Unixersity- Press, 1984. 298 pages.

ISBN 0- 1 9-520459-X $20.00 hardcov erISBN 0-19-520460-3 $8.00 paperback

Development is quintessentiallN long term, yield-ing its best results when beneficial policies andprograms can be sustained for xears. How popu-lation growth, goxernment policies, and livingstandards are linked is the special focus of thissear's World Bank guide to global economic per-fornmance. In an in-depth rexiewv of populationissues, the relationship betxveen declines in fertil-2. See. hox%c vr, the usetil findiiws from ai earlier itv and mortality, on one hand, and improv e-Banlk-tfunded research proqect. TDemand for and \Villing-

ncss to Pav fo- Scrx'iccs in R ral Mlia Rcf No. 672-72! mcnts m economic well-being, on the other, isini .1bI!ra,ii s/ CurLent .Studies 198.): Tlb, 11 a,td Bantk Resarcach clearly delineated. The report emphasizes that:Pri(a,oaain W\ashington. D.:.: 'Ihe \\orld Batik. 1983 . rapid population growssth is a development prob-pp.2 5 7-58. lemn there are appropriate public policies to re-

-III * ORI.1) HANK

30 RUSEA\R(CII NFEWS Sl NINIEIER 1984

duce fertility; and goxvernment policies, especiallN The Development Data Book:in support of female education and family plani- Economic and Social Statistics on 125

niing services, do make a difference in redticiing Countriesfertility levels. The Development Data Book:

In its survey of' thie global economy, the report Teaching Guideconcludes that the 1980-83 recession was not anisolated ev-ent, rooted onlv in oil shocks, but also a Harriet Baldwin, Bruce Ross-Larson, and Gerald

manifestation of' economic rigidities being built Martin Quinn The World Bank, 1984.

into economies from the mid-1960s onward. Pol-icy-induced conditions in industrial countries, ISBN 0-8213-0312-0 data hook) 16 pages $5.00

particularly regarding public spending, taxation, paperback only

and fiscal deficits and strong upward pressure ISBN 0-8213-0313-9 teaching guide) 40 pages

on real wages, contributed to inflation, unem- $5.00 paperback only

ployment. slow growth, and broadlN defined pro- Classroom sets of both volumes, including 11

tectionism worldwide. Disinflation of the early data books and I teaching guide. are available

1980s met its objective of reducing inflation, but at $10.00 a set.

with serious adverse effects to the world tradingsystem and the international Financial system. Thle Dezelopment Data Book uses a colorful arrav

of maps, charts, and tables to introduce, clarify,

Presenting two scenarios a low case and a high and bring life to some hasic social and economic

case-to illustrate the prospects for the world concepts and illustrative data for 125 countries.

economy between 1985 and 1995, the report The fOcus is on fi\e indicators of' develop-

estimates that GDP growth in industrialized ment: life expectancy, adult literacy, popula-

countries wsill range from 2.5 to 4.3 percent a tion growth, GNP per capita, and merchandise

year, with the corresponding growth in develop- exports. Each indicator is defined and then de-

ing countries ranging from 4.7 to 5.5 per-cent. In scribed in terms of the differences betveen devel-

the context of' the lowv case, industrial countries oped and dev eloping countries -and of compar-

wvould do nothing effective to improve thieir per- ative progress since 1960. Two tables at the back

formance and developing countries Would he of the book provide data for individual countries.

"crowvded out" from international c redit markets each with a population over one million, on

and would suffer a related decline in real trade these and other social and economic indicators.

and prospects for growvth. In the high case, mutu- The Dezeopment Data Book and the learning actiV-

al cooperation between industrialized and dexel- ities in its Teaching (Giide ha\De two goals. The

oping economies would be assured----through f

trade liberalization initiatives, flows of' conces- first IS to inrease understanding Of the processa e a e of economic dev elopment and current social and

sional assistance, and expansion of coi-mercialand official lending. For their part, developing economic conditions in developing countries, as

economies need to avoid overvalued exchlante portrayed by the most commonly used indicatorsof economic activity and social well-being. The

rates, importand promotn second is to strengthen a wide range of analytical

skills: performing statistical calculations; making

s e n . and interpreting maps, charts, and tables, andThis edition includes 28 W\orld Development In- solving problemTs and making decisions through

dicators for 125 selected countries, based on the rolpingp

most recent data from the World Bank. Interna-tional Monetary Fund, and United Nations agen- Primarily designed for secondary school students,

cies. For the first time, it also1 features a Popula- the teaching program is appropriate for classes

tion Data Supplement, covering age compositiorn, in economics, current affairs, world history, and

populatioin density. fertility level, status of wom- world geography. The data book is also suitable

en, and population policy indicators for the same for adult education classes and general audiences

125 countries. interested in social and economic development.

HI' \l()RII) BA\NK

S. XINWER 1984 RESEARCH NEWS 31

Pioneers in Development tion. surplus labor in the country-side was mobi-lized at unprecedented levels for construction

Edited by Gerald I. Meier and Dudlev Seers projects, and migration to cities was almost total-lv prohibited. At the same time, remarkable

Oxford University Press,Julv 1984. 384 pages. achievements were made in improving nutrition,health, and longevity among rural Chinese.

ISBN 0-19-520452-2 $29.95 hardcover only For reasons made apparent in this book, an un-derstanding of what China has accomplished andSome of the pioneers In development econom- ho thsdn oi ooe nishsoiaics Lord Bauer. Colin Clark, Albert 0. Hirsch- hoe it has done so IS rooterit Its hbstoerbialman, Sir Arthur Lewis, Gunnar Myvrdal, Raulh Pl N upon and modified by the Chinese CommunistPrebisch, Paul N. Rosenstel'n-Rodan, W. W. Ros- Partv. Based on historical and quanltitative evi-tow, H. \V Singer, and Jan Tmnbergen-offer a*tow H. -t. Siner, and Jatibdergenafter dence, the authors attempt to measure what hasVoretrospectiv viewo the frmatve dhecd atern l happened to agricultural production and the re-bord oWa to when subjecthe me isultant gains in income, health, and educationcontriIj in the country-side since 1949. It contains purely

In individual papers, they recapture the intellec- economic and technical considerations, temperedtual excitement, expectations, and activism of bV the Underlying rationale for economic policies.that period and provide rare autobiographical starting with politics and values.detail and insight into why they said what theydid and what thev now,\ thi ink aIbout the state OIf ln outlining the role of agriculture mn the COUlli-de elopment thought and policnke try's overall strategy lor development, the authors

highlhght the fact that China's agricultural andCommentary is provided by economists of the industrial development strategies were carriedsucceeding generation, who reappraise their ideas out in an unusual degree of isolation from eachiwith the benefit of hindsight. General overviews other. As a result, China has nianv characteristicsof the subject have been written by Gerald MIeier of a dual economy. Agriculture has benefitedand Paul Streeten. from the manutfcture of chiemical fertilizer bythe indtistrial sector, but compared with otherrapidly growing econotnies, rural developmentRural Development in China in China has been a self-containied cflort.

Dwight H. Perkins and Shahid Y usuf Did the results of this motinmental exertionmatch the elfIrt expended? Was Chinese society

TheJohns Hopkins LTniversitv Press, 1984. About transformed beyond recogilition? TFle answer is232 pages. Some profoun(l changes occurred, but manycharacteristics of pre-1949 China persisted.

LC 83-049366 Health, lending itself to collective efort in sanita-ISBN 0-8018-3261-6 $25.00 hardcover only tion ancl inoculation campaigns. improved dra-maticallv, but incotnes rose significantl1 on1vRural development policies in China shape the among the poorest quarter of the population.lives of 800 million people, roughly one-third of mainlv as the result of land reform, iiot gains inthe world's farm population. Since 1949. a strat- production. Farm output increased, btut no fasteregy of self-reliance based on collectivization of than in manv other developing countries thatagriculture has been pursued, with the govern- in ested much less effort The effects of commun-ment s capacity to implement village-level pro- al organization onI agricultural production aregrams on a nationwide scale through bureaucrat- mixed

ic and party channels being a crucial element. Where does (China's agricultural policy go fromThe benefits of extensive land reform were distrib- here) IThe authors argue that industrializationuted to the poorest segment of the rural popula- and urbanization are the inevitable next-steps

1 III *, (KRI I) B N K

32 RESEARCH NEWS SUMMER 1984

for eliminating rural poverty further in China country; and second, in order to work effectivelv,

but these solutions imply abandonment of one the basic principles of' the system should be well

element of the self-reliant strategy-that the understood and that its significant features should

efforts of farmers themselves be the origin of not be modified. Among these features are: fixed,

their oxwn economic dlevelopment. Nill the gap regular visits to farmers' fields by all extension

between rural and urban incomes and the prob- staff; the primacy of able subject-matter special-

lem of poverty in large parts of rural Chiia be ists and of r Ii . two-way linkages between

solved only by moving these people into urban farmers, extension, and research; the develop-

employment with higher productivity? ment of specific, relevant production recommen-

dations to be taught to farmers; frequent regularANs the book illuminates, China has not found antringoalexnsnsaf;ndxcuvtyfalternative path to higher agricultural production training of all extension staff; and exclusivity of

and advanced-countrv levels of national income, function, that is, all extension staff should concen-

but it has found a way to ameliorate some of the

costs of the transition when so many rural people This book has its origins in a series of operational

are and must remain poor. Preventive health notes, prepared to guide extension field staff and

measures are inexpensive and thev do work, and management in India, on aspects of the T & V

the income of absentee landlords, when distribut- system. Intended mainly for the use of extension

ed to the poorest 20 percent of a population, staff at all levels, agricultural rcsearch personnel,

can greatly reduce abject poverty. trainers, and staff of agricultural organizations,

it is both a methodological guide to the trainingBy surveying a development experience that en- and visit svstem and a resource for training. It

compasses successes and f'ailures during the past will also be of interest to all universities and

three decades, the study helps to clarify both the training institutions involved in agricultural and

strengths and weaknesses of a self-reliant strategy rural development and public administration.

of rural development.A briefer, more general description of the training

dVisit Extension and visit system is available in the volume listedTraining and Vbelow.

Daniel Benor and M11chael Baxter. Agricultural Extension: The Training

The World Bank, 1984. 214 pages. and Visit System

LC 82-20267 Daniel Benor, James Q Harrison, and Michael

ISBN 0-8213-0121-7 $15.00 paperback Baxter

The training and visit (T & V) system of agricul- The World Bank, 1984. 95 pages.

tural extension has been strongly supported by

the WVorld Bank and the governments of many IC 82-23865

developing countries for about 10 years. This ISBN 0-8213-0140-3 $5.00 paperback

volume contains a comprehensive explanation of

the organization and operation of the training Taking account of a decade of experience in

and visit system, based mainly on experience more than 40 countries with the training and

with its implementation by extension services in visit (T & V) system as a means of reforming

India, Indonesia, Kenya, Thailand, and else- agricultural extension services, this volume pre-

where. sents the lessons learned from experience and

the accumulating evidence that the T & V svstemThe two main lessons from experience highlighted is an excellent investment.

herein are: first, that the training and visit systemhas a continuing need to adapt to the existing The central theme of the T & V system-efficien-

agricultural and administrative structure of' a cy in the use ofresources available to government

[ 11E WORI.I) BAXNK

SLTMMNIER 1984 RESEARCH NEWS 33and farmers--has proved particularly useful in a appendixes, covering 280 individual transfersperiod during which manv governments have over a 40-year period.had to scale down the level of new investmentsand recurrent expenditures. This major objective Cost-Benefit Analysis: Issues andis achiev ed through encouraging and facilitat- Methodologiesing feedback from farmers to research w orkersthrough extension personnel who visit and adxise Anandarup Ravfarmers on a regular, fixed schedule, thus helpingresearch to solve actual production constraints The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1984. 208faced by the farmer. pages.

This edition revises and updates an earlier vol- LC 83-049367ume, The T.. '. and lisit System bv Daniel LC 8-049368ISBN 0-8018-3068-0 522.50 hardcoverBenor and James Q Harrison 'The World Bank,1977', which became the standard of both poll-cvmakers and a,gricultural practitioners. Numerous important contributions to the theory

and practice of cost-benefit analvsis are examinedNorth-South Technology Transfer: A in this volume, which consolidates muclh of theCase Study of Petrochemicals in Latin recent work in this area and focuses on aspectsAmerica that continue to be controversial. It discusses

alternative types of valuation functions, differen-Mariluz Cortes and Peter Bocock tial weighting for income inequality and for dis-

parities in the consumption of basic needs, shad-The Johns Hopkinis University Press, 1984. 184 owt exchange rates and the valuation ofnontradedpages. and traded goods and services, valuation of sav-

ings and budget constraints, and concepts of dis-LC 83-049365 count rates and of shadow wage rates.ISBN 0-8018-3259-4 $25.00 hardcover The techniques and implications of using the

more recent approaches are explained in practi-This book deals with the transfer of technology cal terms. The author attempts to provide afrom industrial to industrializing countries. It more complete account of the issues and polemicsdraws on existing literature in English and Span- in cost-benefit analysis than is currently availableish (much of which is not readily- available to in the literature. A lengthy overview is also pro-the nonspecialist) and original research to present vided for nonspecialist readers.a comprehensive picture of terms under wvhichpetrochemical technology has been transferredto Latin America. Virtually all installations that Compounding and Discounting Tableswere in operation, being constructed, or being for Project Analysis, with a Guide toplanned up to the mid-1970s are included. Their Applications (Second edition,

revised and expanded)The authors outline the nature of the market forpetrochemical technology, identify the main sup- Edited by J. Price Gittingerplier groups (chemical or oil companies and en-gineering contractors), and describe the structure The Johns Hopkins Universitv Press, 1984. 208of the petrochemical industry in Latin America. pages.Following a primer on the broad issues, the vol-ume concludes with a critical, data-based discus- LC 84-49364sion of the main factors that appear to determine ISBN 0-8018-2409-5 $10.95 paperbackthe different types of'arrangements used.The text is supported by detailed tables and The preparation and analysis of development

__ HE WORLD BANK

34 RESEARCII NEWS SUMMER 1984

projects require much computation-of internial those lacking a core of appropriately trained

rates of return, benefit-cost ratios, net present accountants.

worth, and rates of growth. For these and manv

other calculations, project planners and analysts * . rnl X

will find this book a convenient and time-saving counting for those with little or no bookkeeping

reference. experience and proceeds through successive levelsof difficultv to some of the most advanced con-

Six-decimal tables for I percent through 50 per- cepts currentlv in use, including the pooling of

cent show the compounding factor for I and for I loans. An important feature is the multitude of

per annum, the sinking fund factor, the discount practical applications and examples of forms and

factor, the present worth of an annuity factor, records.

and the capital recovery factor. Summary pre-

sent-worth tables give project analvsts the dis-

count factors most used to calculate measures of WORLD BANK STAFF WORKINGproject worth. Narrow-interval compounding PAPERStables give the compounding factor for 1 at frac-

tional interest rates from 0.0 through 20.9 per- No. 611. Trends in International Trade

cent. All tables give values for project vears 1* l in Manufactured Goods and Structural

through 50. Uses of the tables in project analysisare documented by clear examples adapted fr om Change in the Industrial Countries. Bela Ba-

projects in developing countries assisted bv the lassa. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0251-5. 44 pages. $3.00.

World Bank and other agencies. No. 618. The Economics of Cotton Culti-

The first edition, Compounding and Discounting vation in India: Supply and Demand for

Tables for Project Emaluation, underwent seven 1980-1990. Jon A. Hitchings. 1984. ISBN0-8213-0322-8. 104 pages. $5.00.

printings in 10 years and was translated into

Arabic, Chinese, French, and Spanish. This new No. 621. Alternative Agricultural Pricing

edition-with its narrow-interval compounding Policies in the Republic of Korea: Their

tables added for higher interest rates, updated Implications for Government Deficits, In-

project examples, guide to using simple electronic come Distribution, and Balance of Pay-

calculators for computing the discussed material, ments. Avishav Braverman, Choong Yong

and an annotated bibliography-is an indispens- Ahn, and Jeffrev S. Hammer. 1983. ISBN

able tool in the classroom and at the project 0-8213-0275-2. 174 pages. $5.00.

site.No. 622. Policy Analysis of Shadow Pricing,

a An fr Foreign Borrowing, and Resource Extrac-Municipal Accounting for Developing tion in Egypt. Kemal Dervis, Ricardo Mar-

Countries tin, and Sweder van WNijnbergen. 1984. ISBN

0-8213-0277-9. 186 pages. $5.00.

No. 626. Some Temporal Aspects of Devel-

A joint publication of the Chartered Institute of opment: A Survey. R.S. Eckaus. 1984. ISBN

Public Finance and Accountancy and The WVorld 0-8213-0300-7. 76 pages. $3.00.

Bank, 1984. About 900 pages. No. 627. Macroeconomic and Distributional

LC 84-3623 Implications of Sectoral Policy Interven-

ISBN 0-8213-0350-3 $30.00 hardcover tions. An Application to Thailand. Pujasvas-ti Amrananid and WX7afik Grais. 1984. ISBN

This manual is based on British practices and 0-8213-0302-3. 200 pages. $5.00.

terminology of municipal accounting, modified No. 628. Savings Behavior and Its Implica-

to suit the needs of other countries, especially tions for Domestic Resource Mobilization:

T1IHE *)ORLD BANK

SUMMER 1984 RESEARCH NEWS 35

The Case of the Republic of Korea. Shah- No. 639. Public Finance in Egypt: Its Struc-id Yusul and R. Kyle Peters. 1984. ISBN ture and Trends. Sadiq Ahmed. 1984. ISBN0-8213-0304-X. 64 pages. $3.00. 0-8213-0359-7. 112 pages. $5.00.No. 629. Exports of Capital Goods and Re- No. 640. Currency Swaps. A Borrowinglated Services from the Republic of Korea. Technique in a Public Policy Context. Dax idLarrv E. XNestphal YSung XV. Rhee. Linsu Kim, Bock and Christine I. WVallich. 1984. ISBNand Alice AAmsden. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0310-4. 0-8213-0360-0. 70 pages. $5.00.80 pages. $3.00.

No. 630. The Common Agricultural Policy WORLD BANK COMMODITYof the European Community: A Blessing or PAPERSa Curse for Developing Countries? UIlrichKoester and Malcolm D. Bale. 1984. ISBN No. 10. World Rubber Market Structure and0-8213-0327-9. 64 pages. $3.00. Stabilization: An Econometric Study. C.

Suan Tan. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0264-7. 424 pages.No. 631. Economic Evaluation of Investment 290.00.Projects: Possibilities and Problems of Ap- 2plying Western Methods in China. AdrianWood. 1i::i. ISBN 0-821:3-0316-3. 76 pages. WORLDBANKTECHNICALPAPERS$3.00.

No. 16. Managing Elephant Depredation inNo. 632. Domestic Resource Mobilization Agricultural and Forestry Projects.John Sei-in Pakistan: Selected Issues. N\izar Jetha, densticker. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0297-3. 50 pages.Shamshad Akhtar, and GoNinda Rao. 1984. $3.00.ISBN 0-8213-0335-X. 144 pages. $5.00.

No. 17. Energy Efficiency and Fuel Substitu-No. 633. A Model of World Energy Markets tion in the Cement Industry with Emphasisand OPEC Pricing. Buom-Jong Choe. 1984. on Developing Countries. Mlogens H. Fog andISBN 0-8213-0328-7. 186 pages. $5.00. Kishore L. Nadkarni. 1983. ISBN 0-8213-0270-1.No. 634. Railways and Energy. Pi6iu L. Al- 94 pages. $3.00.ston. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0345-7. 94 pages. $3.00. No. 20. Water Quality in HydroelectricNo. 635. The Poor of Bogota: Who They Projects: Considerations for Planning inAre, What They Do, and Where They Live. Tropical Forest Regions. Cam1ilo E. Garzon.Rakesh Nlohan and Nancx Hartline. 1984. ISBN 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0363-5. 48 pages. $5.00.0-8213-0346-5. 106 pages. $5.00.

No. 636. The Real Effects of Stabilization WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDIESand Structural Adjustment Policies: An Ex-tension of the Australian Adjustment Mod- Iel. Deepak Lal. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0353-8. 80 Bank ountre tudisare preparedaly frthepages.$3.00.Bank's own iuse w,ith di'stribuition restricted to member

goternments and international organiz:ations that dealNo. 637. A Three-Sector, Time Series Model with detvelopment problenms. Iithere the issues studiedof the Labor Market in India. Raj' Krishna. have attracted a wt ide interest, w,here it appears that the1984. ISBN 0-8213-0351-1. 52 pages. S3.00. Bank's stud; could contribute substantiall) to knotwledge

and understanding of these issues, and wkhere the author-No. 638. The Growth of Aggregate Unem- ities of the country concerned are agreeable, such reporl,zployment in India: Trends, Sources, and are made available to a weider audience. Potential readersMacroeconomic Policy Options. Raj Krish- are advised that theAe are zworking documents, not pre-na. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-1 1: I. 68 pages. $3.00. pared wt ith a v4iew to br(oad di.stribution.

T'HE WORI.D BANK

36 RFESEARCH NEWS SUMMER 1984

Belize: Economic Report. 1984. ISBN naud. From _Journal of Development Economics, vol.

0-8213-0308-2. 154 pages, plus map. S5.00. 11 (1982), pp. 249-72.

Brazil: Economic Memorandum. 1984. ISBN No. 270. Policy Responses to External

0-8213-0330-9. 400 pages. $15.00. Shocks in Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Colombia: Economic Development and Pol- Bela Balassa. From Journal of Policy Modeling,

icy under Changing Conditions. 1984. ISBN 'ol. 5, no. 1 (1983), pp. 75-105.

0-8213-0329-5. 378 pages. $15.00. No. 271. Trade Adjustment Policies and In-

come Distribution in Three Archetype De-Ghana: Policies and Program for Adjust-vepngCutisJam de eoad

ment. 1984. ISBN 0-8213-0358-9. 236 pages. veloping Countries. Jaime de Melo ande 10 8. Sherman Robinson. From Journal of Development

0 Economics, vol. 10 (1982), pp. 67-92.

No. 272. The Role of the Firm in Wage De-

WORLD BANK REPRINT SERIES termination: An African Case Study. J. B.Knight and R. H. Sabot. From Oxford Economic

Thefollowing recent articles, arisingfrom research un- Papers, vol. 35 (1983), pp. 45-66.

dertaken at orfor the 11 orld Bank, have been reprinted No. 273. The Anti-Export Bias in Commer-

with permission and are available at no charge. cial Policies and Export Performance: Some

Evidence from the Recent Brazilian Experi-

No. 264. The Role of Self-Help Housing in ence. William G. Tyler. From [lWeltwirtschaftliches

Low-Cost Shelter Programs for the Third Archiv, Journal of the Kiel Institute of World

World. Michael Bamberger. From Built Environ- Economics, vol. 119, no. 1 (1983), pp. 97-108.

ment, vol. 8, no.2 (1982), pp. 95-107. No. 274. Penetration of Industrial Country

No. 266. Outward Orientation and Exchange Markets by Agricultural Products from De-

Rate Policy in Developing Countries: The veloping Countries. Ron Duncan and Ernst

Turkish Experience. Bela Balassa. From The Lutz. From [Forld Development, vol. 11, no. 9

Middle East Journal (Summer 1983), pp. 429-47. (1983,, pp. 771-86.

No. 267. Segmented Labor Markets in LDCs. No. 275. Food Prospects in the Developing

Dipak NIazumdar. From American Economic Re- Countries: A Qualified Optimistic View.

vliew, vol. 73, no. 2 (Mav 1983 ! pp. 254-59. Malcolm D. Bale with Ronald C. Duncan. WorldAgricultural Trade and Food Security: Emerging

No. 268. The Effect of Primary-School Patterns and Policv Directions. Mlalcolm D. Bale

Quality on Academic Achievement across and V. Roy Southworth. From The American Eco-

Twenty-nine High- and Low-Income Coun- nomic Review, vol. 73, no. 2 (May 1983), pp.

tries. Stephen P. Heyneman and William A. 244-48, and W14isconsin International Law, journal,

Loxley. From The American Journal of Sociology, Proceedings of the 1982 Symposium, "United

vol. 88, no. 6 (May 1983), pp. 1162-94. States Agricultural Export Policy," vol. 1 (1982),

No. 269. Housing Crowding in Developing pp. 24-41.

Countries and Willingness to Pay for Addi- No. 276. Interest Rate Management in

tional Space: The Case of Korea. James R. LDCs. Sweder v an WNijnbergen. Journal of Mone-

Follain, Jr., Gill-Chin Lim. and Bertrand Re- tary Economics, vol. 12 (1983), pp. 433-52.

1II1 NN0RILI) I\NK_

I

The World Bank

Headquarters:1818 H Street. N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

Telephone: (202) 477-1234Telex: WUI 64145 WORLDBANK

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