Workshop on Labor Migration Workshop on Labor Migration and Labor Market Information and Labor Market Information

SystemSystem

Quebec City, CanadaQuebec City, Canada

February 24-25, 2009February 24-25, 2009

Migration in the Americas: Migration in the Americas: social insurance and social insurance and

management challengesmanagement challenges

Our topics for today:Our topics for today:

What is going to happen with What is going to happen with migratory flows?migratory flows?

How will social insurance How will social insurance respond?respond? PolicyPolicy AdministrationAdministration

The Mercosur developmentThe Mercosur development

• The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many years to comeyears to come• This is due to the large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties This is due to the large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties entering the market, and to many more working women.entering the market, and to many more working women.

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

Per

cent

age

Andean Central America

Southern Cone North America and British Caribbean

Mexico and the Latin Caribbean

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

Per

cent

age

Andean Central America

Southern Cone North America and British Caribbean

Mexico and the Latin Caribbean

Labor Force Participation Rate

Men Women

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004)

Migration is an important social and Migration is an important social and economic phenomenon for many small and economic phenomenon for many small and large countries of the region:large countries of the region:

• Temporary and return migration has become much more common, causing a larger increase in gross flows that in net flows.

• The Americas will continue to be an important place for migration, particularly for within-continent, where Canada, United States and Argentina will remain as net receivers of migration for the next half century.

In the United States the main sources In the United States the main sources of temporary workers are in the of temporary workers are in the

AmericasAmericasTemporary Workers in the United States, 2002

The Americas

Source: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (2002)

168,849

157,437

15,356

12,949

94,837

34,42116,639

13,369

12,727

12,108

65,522

260,318

10,695

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Africa

Mexico

Canada

Jamaica

Colombia

Brazil

Venezuela

Argentina

Others

The increasing migration is accompanied by an The increasing migration is accompanied by an increase in the migration rate of high skilled increase in the migration rate of high skilled

individuals individuals

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

42

59

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

Mill

ion

s o

f p

eo

ple

Migration (living OECD)

1990

Share of migrants by skill level

29.8

25.3

Tertiary

Secondary

2000 2000

29.0

34.6

Per

cent

age

1.8

-2.5-3-2.5

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

22.5

Changes in the participation in the world labor force, 1990-2000

High skilled workers

Low skilled workers

Pe

rce

nta

ge

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Migration stock World labor force

Stock of skilled workers Tertiary

Other

34.6

11.3

Keyfitz (1981) evaluated more than 1,100 forecasts of population Keyfitz (1981) evaluated more than 1,100 forecasts of population growth made between 1939 and 1960.growth made between 1939 and 1960.

There were systematic errors across countries.There were systematic errors across countries.

A review or more recent projections shows basically the same A review or more recent projections shows basically the same results.results.

For example, the latest UN projections:For example, the latest UN projections:

Have adjusted growth for 2050 in more than a billion, and Have adjusted growth for 2050 in more than a billion, and for 2100 in more than two billions.for 2100 in more than two billions.

For shorter intervals, in 1992 the UN projected a population For shorter intervals, in 1992 the UN projected a population for North America of 330 million in 2050, but the most for North America of 330 million in 2050, but the most recent forecast is 448 million.recent forecast is 448 million.

In a complementary fashion, Latin America and the In a complementary fashion, Latin America and the Caribbean “lose” 17 and 32% of their populations for 2050 Caribbean “lose” 17 and 32% of their populations for 2050 and 2100.and 2100.

It is not easy to forecast the future even for It is not easy to forecast the future even for very basic variables:very basic variables:

2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300Asia 3,680 5,222 5,019 4,651 4,682 4,824 4,943Latin America and the Caribbean 520 768 733 675 681 703 723Africa 796 1,803 2,254 2,083 2,008 2,060 2,113Europe 728 632 538 550 574 594 611Northern America 316 448 474 490 509 523 534Oceania 31 46 46 45 45 47 48World 6,071 8,919 9,064 8,494 8,499 8,751 8,972

Change in projections between 1992 and 2003 versionsAsia -1% -7% -16%Latin America and the Caribbean -4% -17% -32%Africa -9% -20% -23%Europe -11% -27% -37%Northern America 9% 36% 53%Oceania 3% 15% 15%World -3% -11% -19%

Source: McNicoll, Geoffrey. "The United Nations Long-Range Population Projections." Population and Development Review, Vol. 18, No. S (Jun., 1992): 333-340.

The United Nations on World Population in 2300. Population and Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 1. (Mar., 2004): 181-187.

Projected population sizes of major world regions, 2000-2100United Nations medium scenario

(millions)

Conclusions (1/2)Conclusions (1/2)

Uncertainty about the more likely evolution of society has not made Uncertainty about the more likely evolution of society has not made

any easier to improve social protection for migrants.any easier to improve social protection for migrants.

Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forumsUnfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forums

See the difficulties governments face in achieving See the difficulties governments face in achieving

agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and

Geneva (2006)Geneva (2006)

The risk is that the space for global governance can end The risk is that the space for global governance can end

up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest

nations at the marginnations at the margin

Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights

has proven to be one of the most difficulthas proven to be one of the most difficult

Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with

commercial negotiationscommercial negotiations

Social security works on a territorial base, with rights Social security works on a territorial base, with rights

and obligations defined by national governmentsand obligations defined by national governments

Despite totalization agreements the great majority of Despite totalization agreements the great majority of

international migrants on the American continent are international migrants on the American continent are

not covered by them not covered by them

Data Transfers and Validation System in Mercosur

The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. It covers countries with a population of nearly It covers countries with a population of nearly

one quarter of the Continental population one quarter of the Continental population (200 million out of 800). (200 million out of 800).

Migration is high in the area. Migration is high in the area. A satisfactory administrative arrangement has A satisfactory administrative arrangement has

also been worked out.also been worked out. In the NAFTA region, Central America and the In the NAFTA region, Central America and the

Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by international social security agreements.international social security agreements.

We have not dealt here with the issues We have not dealt here with the issues surrounding migratory laws and agreements, surrounding migratory laws and agreements, and social security “totalization” and “double-and social security “totalization” and “double-taxation” agreements. taxation” agreements.

However. It is clear that new technologies However. It is clear that new technologies allow countries a radically improved allow countries a radically improved administrative management of migrants’ cases.administrative management of migrants’ cases.

The administration of social security The administration of social security agreements can also benefit substantially from agreements can also benefit substantially from the application of new technologies.the application of new technologies.

Uncertain expectationsUncertain expectations

The bilateral way cannot go much farther The bilateral way cannot go much farther without the leadership of some of the large without the leadership of some of the large countries.countries.

The multilateral way has advanced through The multilateral way has advanced through the Ibero-American Agreement.the Ibero-American Agreement.

Countries have begun linking the social Countries have begun linking the social protection issue with the migration issue:protection issue with the migration issue:

Questions related to human rights.Questions related to human rights.

Issues on fairness of global economic system.Issues on fairness of global economic system.