What Forces are Driving Californias Recovery Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist November 13, 2013

What Forces are Driving California’s Recovery

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior EconomistNovember 13, 2013

Economic Outlook 2

Key Macroeconomic Trends

A Cloud of Uncertainty Hangs Over

the Economy

Unprecedented changes in fiscal and monetary policy have cast a cloud of uncertainty over economic decision making. The persistence of large budget deficits and new regulations regarding healthcare and financial services have effectively raised the hurdle rate that new investment and hiring decisions must clear in order to be enacted

Economic growth continues to gradually gain

momentum

California’s economy is ahead of the nation in many

ways but other areas are more challenged

Below Trend GDP Growth Bolsters the Case for the New Normal

Real GDP growth has averaged a 2.2 percent pace since the recession ended, which is well below the 3.3 percent pace averaged during the 25 years prior to the Great Recession. The Obama Administration and Fed have worked to close the output gap and bring GDP growth back to its previous trend. The lack of success bolsters the case for the New Normal.

QE Has Boosted Asset Prices But Not Underlying Fundamentals

The Fed’s massive expansion of its balance sheet did a good job of driving interest rates lower and sending the stock market higher. While producing some beneficial effects, higher asset prices have done little to boost income growth. QE has also led to increased speculative activity, with home prices rising even when homeownership is declining.

California’s Recovery is Broadening and Gaining Momentum

Led by strong gains in technology and tourism, California’s recovery has steadily gained momentum. Job growth has decelerated recently and is just keeping pace with the nation. The unemployment rate is trending lower. The gap between the conditions along the coast and the state’s interior has widened, as the recovery in the Central Valley remains slow.

California Maintains a Huge Lead

in Technology

While competition from Texas and Silicon Alley has received a great deal of attention, California’s lead in information technology has widened in recent years. The Bay area remains the innovation hub for mobile devices social media, cloud computing and alternative energy. Manufacturing remains a huge challenge for the state, however, even with tech.

Economic Outlook 3

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 2.8%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.6%

Forecast

U.S. GDP

We see economic growth gradually regaining

momentum as the housing recovery takes hold and the

drag from fiscal belt tightening gradually wanes

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economic Outlook 44

U.S. GDP

The combination of sluggish economic growth and low inflation means that revenue growth is unusually sluggish, which impacts certain parts of the economy

differently


Nominal GDPReal GDP

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

U.S. Real GDPBars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change

Real GDP: Q3 @ 2.8%

Real GDP: Q3 @ 1.6%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

U.S. Nominal GDPBars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change

Nominal GDP: Q3 @ 4.8%

Nominal GDP: Q3 @ 3.1%

Economic Outlook 5

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Unemployment v. Employment-Population Ratio16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate: Oct @ 7.3% (Left Axis)

Employment-Population: Oct @ 58.3% (Right Axis - Inverted)

Labor Market Dynamics

The employment-population rate hasn’t improved over

the past four years, despite the fall in the

unemployment rate, suggesting that many job seekers have simply given

up.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economic Outlook 66

Housing Market Metrics

Despite some recent setbacks, we continue to look for a gradual recovery in homebuilding. Apartments are playing a larger role than in previous building

cycles.

Source: NAR, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Home PricesHousing Starts

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Th

ou

san

ds

Housing StartsMillions of Units

Multifamily Starts

Multifamily Forecast

Single-family Starts

Single-family ForecastForecast

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

-24%

-18%

-12%

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index vs. Homeownership Rate

National Home Price Index: Q2 @ 10.1% (Left Axis)

Homeownership Rate: Q3 @ 65.3% (Right Axis)

Economic Outlook 77

Labor Market Metrics

Layoffs have clearly declined but businesses are still reluctant to add staff


HiringInitial Claims

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Initial Claims for UnemploymentSeasonally Adjusted, In Thousands

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Nov-2 @ -7.4%

Initial Claims: Nov-2 @ 336.0 Thousand

4-Week Moving Average: Nov-2 @ 348.3 Thousand

52-Week Moving Average: Nov-2 @ 349.8 Thousand

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

U.S. Hiring RateSeasonally Adjusted

3-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 3.3%

12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 3.2%

Economic Outlook 8

23.0%

68.1%

46.4%

50.0%

38.0%

28.1%

19.7%

20.3%

19.7%

22.2%

32.8%

15.4%

18.4%

16.3%

14.5%

36.4%

31.5%

24.7%

22.5%

20.7%

20.0%

18.8%

18.8%

17.3%

15.4%

14.9%

14.2%

12.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

U.S.

Nevada

Florida

Arizona

Michigan

Georgia

I llinois

Rhode Island

Ohio

Maryland

California

New J ersey

New Hampshire

Minnesota

Negative Equity by StatePercent of Mortgages Outstanding

Q2 2010

Q2 2013

Negative Equity Mortgages

The rise in home prices has helped bring down the

share of owners who own more on their home than

their home is worth

Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economic Outlook

Percent change in real GDP by state 2011-2012

ID0.4

AR1.3

AL1.2

ME0.5

KS1.4

SD0.2

OH2.2

WI3.5

AZ2.6

NH0.5

MT2.1

MS2.4

OK2.1

NV1.5

IL1.9

GA2.1

FL2.4

CO2.1

CA3.5

NE1.5

MO2.0

UT3.4

NM0.2

WA3.6

IA2.4

MI2.2

LA1.5

VA1.1

TX4.8

PA1.7

IN3.3

NC2.7

MN3.5

KY1.4

VT1.2

TN3.3

OR3.9

NY1.3

WV3.3

ND13.4

SC2.7

WY3.3

AK1.1

CT-0.1

DE0.2

HI1.6

MA2.2

MD2.4

NJ1.3

RI1.4

DC0.7

U.S. = 2.5

3.3–13.4

-0.1–1.2

2.2–3.3

1.5–2.2

1.2–1.5

California

Economic Outlook 11

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11

California Employment: Percent of Previous Peak Percent

Percent of Previous Peak: Aug @ 96.4%

California Employment Picture

The most recent recession was more than twice as

severe as the one California experience following the

end of the Cold War

Nonfarm employment remains 3.6 percent below

its previous peak in California


Economic Outlook 1212

California – Labor Market

While nonfarm employment growth has decelerated recently, we suspect that job growth is being understated and look for the unemployment rate to trend lower.

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

California Nonfarm Employment3-Month Moving Averages

QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Mar @ 2.9%Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Aug @ 1.5%Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Aug @ 2.8%


Unemployment & Labor ForceEmployment

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

California vs. U.S. Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 8.9%United States: Aug @ 7.3%

Economic Outlook 13

California Nonfarm Employment Growth by Industry

Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Educ. & Health Svcs.

Leisure and Hospitality

Financial Activities

Trade, Trans. & Utilites

Manufacturing

GovernmentOther Services

Construction

Information

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

3-M

onth

An

nualiz

ed P

erc

ent

Change

Year-over-Year Percent Change

California Employment Growth by Industry3-Month Moving Averages, August 2013

Percent of Total Employees

10% to 20%

5 % to 10%

Less than 5%

Recovering Expanding

Contracting Decelerating

Economic Outlook 14

Unemployment Rate by County

California


California Unemployment RateAugust 2013

Less than 8.0%

Greater than 14.0%

10.0% to 12.0%

12.0% to 14.0%

8.0% to 10.0%

Economic Outlook 15

California Nonfarm Employment Growth


Orange County

Los Angeles

Inland Empire

San Diego

Oakland

Sacramento

San Jose

San Francisco

Fresno

Bakersfield

Oxnard

Stockton

Modesto

Santa Rosa

Visalia Santa Barbara

Salinas

Vallejo

Merced

San Luis Obispo

Santa Cruz

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

3-M

onth

Ann

ualiz

ed P

erc

en

t C

hange (

3M

MA

)

Year-over-Year Percent Change

California Employment Growth: August 20133-Month Moving Averages

Population3 Million+1 - 3 Mil.500 Thous. - 1 Mil.300 - 500 Thous.200 - 400 Thous.

Recovering Expanding

Contracting Decelerating

Economic Outlook 16

3.0%

18.4%

17.0%

5.9%

5.7%

4.9%

3.6%

3.0%

2.0%

1.8%

-2.3%

-3.8%

-8.1%

-11.7%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

California

Data Processing

Internet Publishing, Broadcasting & Search Portals

Computer Systems Design

Software Publishers

Computer & Peripheral Equip. Manuf.

Aerospace & Parts Manufacturing

Scientific Research & Development

Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing

Architectural & Engineering Services

Telecommunications

Semiconductor & Electronic Component Manuf.

Other Device Manuf.

Communications Equip. Manuf.

California High-Tech Employment GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA, QCEW

March 2013

California High-Tech Employment

High-tech employment, particularly in data

processing, internet, software and computer

design, has seen stronger growth than the state

overall

Recent research by Enrico Moretti suggests that each technology job creates five

additional jobs

Source: U.S. Department of Laborand Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economic Outlook

$74.0

$61.0

$52.7

$50.4

$46.8

$45.0

$42.7

$42.6

$40.7

$31.5

$30.0

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90

San Francisco

San J ose

Oakland

Orange County

San Diego

California

United States

Los Angeles

Sacramento

Fresno

Inland Empire

Per Capita IncomeThousands of Dollars, 2011

California Per Capita Income

High incomes will help boost local consumer

spending



California – Home Prices & Construction

With home prices improving, residential construction is gradually regaining strength

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Core Logic HPI : CA vs. U.S.Year-over-Year Percent Change

United States: Sep @ 12.0%

California: Sep @ 22.5%

Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Housing PermitsHome Prices

0

40

80

120

160

200

0

40

80

120

160

200

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Thou

sand

s

Thou

sand

s

California Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Single-Family: Aug @ 43,392Single-Family, 12-MMA: Aug @ 34,298Multifamily, 12-MMA: Aug @ 37,907

Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 109,729


California – Home Prices & Construction

With the rapid rise in home prices and slight rise in mortgage rates earlier this year, housing affordability has declined.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13

30-Year Conventional Mortage Rates

Historical Mortgage Rate

Current Rate: Nov @ 4.2%

Source: FHFA, CAR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Housing AffordabilityMortgage Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C.A.R. Housing Affordability IndexSingle-Family Homes

Housing Affordability: Q2 2013 @ 36

Economic Outlook 20

15.4%

28.6%28.6%28.4%

27.4%27.1%

24.8%22.9%

18.1%16.2%

15.7%14.0%13.7%

12.0%11.4%

10.5%7.5%

6.7%6.6%

3.3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

California

VallejoBakersfield

FresnoModestoStockton

Inland EmpireSalinas

SacramentoSanta Barbara

OaklandSanta RosaSan Diego

OxnardLos AngelesSanta Cruz

San Luis ObispoOrange County

San J oseSan Francisco

California Negative Equity by MSAPercent of Mortgages Outstanding

As of Q2 2013

Negative Equity by MSA

Many coastal areas now have a relatively low share

of negative equity mortgages outstanding, while inland areas have taken longer to recover


Economic Outlook

8.4%

9.3%

10.1%

10.3%

10.7%

13.0%

13.9%

14.3%

19.6%

20.3%

22.2%

22.3%

23.1%

23.7%

26.3%

30.4%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Oakland

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Warren

San Diego

Chicago

Sacramento

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

Tampa

Detroit

Las Vegas

Orlando

Charlotte

Atlanta

Phoenix

Miami

Share of Investor Purchases - CoreLogicPercent

As of December 2012

Investor Purchases

Investor purchases have helped drive up prices



California – Apartments

Apartment development has picked up, particularly in the Bay Area, which has helped stem the slide in vacancy rates

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

San Francisco Apartment Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units

Apartment Completions: Q3 @ 612 Units (Right Axis)Apartment Net Absorption: Q3 @ 641 Units (Right Axis)Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q3 @ 3.1% (Left Axis)

Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Los AngelesSan Francisco

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Los Angeles Apartment Supply & DemandPercent; Thousands of Units

Apartment Completions: Q3 @ 191 Units (Right Axis)

Apartment Net Absorption: Q3 @ 619 Units (Right Axis)

Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q3 @ 3.2% (Left Axis)

Economic Outlook 23

China Slowdown

InvestorHome Buying

Credit Availability & Financial Reform

ManufacturingCompetitiveness

Deleveraging

Monetary/FiscalPolicy Uncertainty

Immigration ReformEnergy/Commodity

Price Swings

Issues to Watch

Economic Outlook 24

Housing Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real GDP, percent change - 0.3 - 2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.6 2.2 2.6Nonfarm Employment, percent change - 0.6 - 4.4 - 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7Unemployment Rate 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.7

Home ConstructionTotal Housing Starts, in thousands 905.5 553.9 586.9 608.8 780.6 930.0 1,100.0 1,250.0Single- Family Starts, in thousands 622.0 445.0 471.1 430.5 535.3 645.0 780.0 910.0Multifamily Starts, in thousands 283.5 108.9 115.8 178.3 245.3 285.0 320.0 340.0

Home SalesNew Home Sales, Single- Family, in thousands 485.0 374.0 321.0 305.0 369.0 440.0 535.0 625.0Total Existing Home Sales, in thousands 4,110.0 4,340.0 4,190.0 4,260.0 4,650.0 5,100.0 5,300.0 5,480.0Existing Single- Family Home Sales, in thousands 3,660.0 3,870.0 3,708.0 3,787.0 4,127.0 4,500.0 4,680.0 4,840.0Existing Condominium & Townhouse Sales, in thousands 450.0 464.0 474.0 477.0 528.0 600.0 620.0 640.0

Home PricesMedian New Home, $ Thousands 232.1 216.7 221.8 227.2 245.2 262.0 270.0 278.0

Percent Change - 6.4 - 6.6 2.4 2.4 7.9 6.9 3.1 3.0Median Existing Home, $ Thousands 198.1 172.5 172.9 166.1 176.6 196.0 202.0 207.5

Percent Change - 9.5 - 12.9 0.2 - 3.9 6.3 11.0 3.1 2.7FHFA (OFHEO) Home Price Index (Purch Only), Pct Chg - 7.7 - 5.6 - 3.0 - 4.2 3.4 8.0 4.0 2.7Case- Shiller C- 10 Home Price Index, Percent Change - 16.7 - 12.9 2.1 - 3.5 0.3 11.8 8.1 3.2

Interest Rates - Annual AveragesPrime Rate 4.88 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25Ten- Year Treasury Note 3.66 3.26 3.22 2.78 1.80 2.41 2.85 3.25Conventional 30- Year Fixed Rate, Commitment Rate 6.04 5.04 4.69 4.46 3.66 4.11 4.55 4.95One- Year ARM, Effective Rate, Commitment Rate 5.18 4.71 3.79 3.03 2.77 2.80 3.20 3.40

Forecast as of: November 1, 2013

Source: Federal Reserve Board, FHFA, MBA, NAR, S&P, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

National Housing Outlook

Forecast

Economic Outlook 25

Our Forecast

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Real Gross Domestic Product 1 1.1 2.5 2.8 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 1.8 2.8 1.7 2.3 2.8

Personal Consumption 2.3 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.4

Inflation Indicators 2

PCE Deflator 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.2

Consumer Price Index 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.2

Industrial Production 1 4.1 1.1 2.3 5.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 3.4 3.6 2.5 4.0 4.7

Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 2.1 4.5 6.3 5.0 4.1 5.4 6.2 5.3 7.9 7.0 4.5 5.3 5.9

Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 76.2 77.5 75.2 75.3 76.0 76.3 76.8 77.3 70.9 73.5 76.1 76.6 77.9

Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 8.9 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.7

Housing Starts 4 0.96 0.87 0.89 0.94 1.03 1.13 1.18 1.20 0.61 0.78 0.93 1.10 1.25

Quarter- End Interest Rates 5

Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.44Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.57 4.07 4.49 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.46 3.66 4.11 4.55 4.9510 Year Note 1.87 2.52 2.64 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 2.78 1.80 2.41 2.85 3.25

Forecast as of: November 8, 20131 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency I ndex, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages

ForecastActual

2013

Actual Forecast

2014

Appendix

Economic Outlook 27

Recent Special Commentary

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

To view any of our past research please visit:

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economicsemail

Date Title Authors

October- 16 Short- Run Disruption, Long- Run Imbalance Silvia & BrownOctober- 16 Is There Pent- Up Demand for Consumer Durables? Bryson, Aleman & BrownOctober- 16 Household Debt Service Ratio: New Lows, Less Stress Silvia & Miller October- 14 Singapore GDP Stronger Than Expected in Q3 BrysonOctober- 09 The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part II Silvia, Brown & ZacharyOctober- 07 The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part I Silvia & BrownOctober- 03 Asheville's Recovery Remains Solidly on Track Vitner & WolfOctober- 03 How Does North Carolina Stack Up Today? Silvia, Brown & GriffithsOctober- 02 Abenomics Getting Warm Reception from J apanese Business QuinlanOctober- 02 Naples Four Years After the Recession Vitner & WolfOctober- 02 Housing Chartbook: September 2013 Vitner, Khan & SilvermanOctober- 02 Will British Consumers Continue to Spend? Bryson & MillerOctober- 01 Bank Lending: A Perspective on Credit Silvia & WattOctober- 01 Corporate Credit: Bond Finance and Power in Reserve Silvia & ZacharyOctober- 01 Shutdown Showdown: Deficit Remains the Issue Silvia & Brown

September- 27 Mexico: Tidbits of Better Times Ahead? AlemanSeptember- 27 Strong Growth in Argentina in Q2 2013 AlemanSeptember- 27 Sequestering Economic Growth? Silvia & BrownSeptember- 26 Why Has U.S. Labor Productivity Growth Slowed? Bryson & WattSeptember- 25 South Carolina 2013 Economic Outlook Vitner & Silverman September- 25 Interest Rate Update: Post the Big Non- Taper Silvia & Zachary September- 25 Consumer Credit: Critical Differences in Consumer Behavior Silvia & MillerSeptember- 24 Florida Consumer Sentiment Falls Back in September Vitner & Silverman September- 23 Does China Have a Debt Problem? BrysonSeptember- 20 California Adds 29,100 J obs, but Unemployment Rises Again Vitner & Silverman September- 20 Florida's J obless Rate Falls, but so Does the Labor Force Vitner & Silverman September- 20 British Economy Appears to Be Turning the Corner BrysonSeptember- 20 Texas Employment Takes a Step Back Vitner & WolfSeptember- 17 Russian Economy Struggles to Grow AlemanSeptember- 18 FOMC: Surprise- No Taper, Weaker Outlook for Growth SilviaSeptember- 17 Chicago's Recovery Is Well Under Way Vitner & Silverman September- 12 FDIC Loan Performance: Cyclical Improvement Silvia, Watt & Zachary September- 11 Las Vegas' Housing Recovery Built on Nontraditional Buyers Vitner & Silverman September- 11 Turkish GDP Growth Strengthened in Q2 BrysonSeptember- 11 Brazilian Economy Surprises in Q2 2013 AlemanSeptember- 10 Texas Economic Outlook: September 2013 Vitner & WolfSeptember- 04 Is the Eurozone Economy Starting to Thaw? BrysonSeptember- 03 Implications of Slower Inflation in South Korea QuinlanSeptember- 03 Midyear Consumer Sepnding Outlook Aleman & BrownSeptember- 03 Swiss Economy Continues to Chug Along Bryson

A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary

Economic Outlook

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

28

John E. Silvia … ....................... … [email protected]

Global Head of Research and Economics

Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected] Head of Research & Economics

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Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . .

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Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....………[email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]

Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist……[email protected]

Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist………………[email protected]

Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . [email protected]

Senior EconomistsZachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst [email protected]

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Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst [email protected]

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Michael T. Wolf, Economist …………………… [email protected]

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Documents

What Forces are Driving Californias Recovery Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist November 13, 2013