WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly NiftyNiftyNiftyNifty &&&& BankBankBankBank NiftyNiftyNiftyNifty TechnicalTechnicalTechnicalTechnical AnalysisAnalysisAnalysisAnalysis 15th15th15th15th JulyJulyJulyJuly

NiftyNiftyNiftyNifty (weekly(weekly(weekly(weekly closeclosecloseclose approx.approx.approx.approx. 9886.35):9886.35):9886.35):9886.35):Last week’s technical: This week market opened gap-up above the previous resistance at approx. 9710and bounced from hourly 20-period moving average at approx. 9668. This was a good entry point forlong trade as, the 9710 resistance was broken in the morning and market was kind enough to give entrylower at hourly mid-Bollinger line. This was a very low risk entry. Then the market started going up andby afternoon it broke above 9720. Someone could have taken a long entry even then, as the market wasbreaking above resistance zone of approx. 9700-9710. The market moved higher to approx 9829. Afterthat, till Wednesday afternoon there was a flattish consolidation prices came close to 20 hour movingaverage at approx 9788 and then it moved up till 9908. Friday saw a gap-up and open, the opening priceeventually became high for the entire day. Moreover there was bearish engulfing pattern. Someone,who had sold at the close of first hour candle, could have made quick 35 points in Nifty to approx. 9845.Again market moved 35-45 points up from hourly mid-Bollinger during the day itself. So market gavegood entries at logical levels multiple times during the week.

Nifty hourly chart

NextNextNextNext weekweekweekweek’’’’ssss technicaltechnicaltechnicaltechnical possibilitiespossibilitiespossibilitiespossibilities::::

The Nifty closed the week on a bullish note. It has been closing above the 5 day moving average for lasttwo weeks. In this rally, which started from December 2016, we can see that Nifty has consolidated afterevery 200-400 points of rallies. Hence there is possibility of consolidation next week. But, that willhappen if market suddenly goes sideways or price closes below 5 day moving average which presentlystand at approx. 9878 or below 34 hourly moving average, which presently stands at approx 9838.Simultaneously we have to look-out for hourly CCI going below 50, or daily CCI moving below 0 or faststochastic and RSI moving back to normal zone from overbought level. We should keep on looking forbearish candlestick reversal pattern formation in daily chart.

On the other hand there is a good possibility that the market may continue the uptrend and movehigher towards psychologically important 10000 level in Nifty.

Nifty daily chart

LongerLongerLongerLonger termtermtermterm possibilitiespossibilitiespossibilitiespossibilities basedbasedbasedbased onononon probableprobableprobableprobable ElliottElliottElliottElliott wavewavewavewave counts:counts:counts:counts:

If we look at longer term charts, we can see that 100% projection of last up move (approx 6825 toapprox. 8968) from the recent low of approx 7894 comes at approx 10036. Hence it is possible that themarket moves towards it and eventually beyond this point.

Nifty weekly chart

We have drawn a possible set of Elliott Wave count in the monthly chart below. As we can see, we arein the midst of a probable 3rd wave, (iii), within (5)(5)(5)(5)within Major wave 3333 in progression. The Major 3rd

Wave 3333 is approaching 1.618% of the major wave 1 (920 to 6357), towards approx. 11049. Again wave(3)(3)(3)(3), within major wave 3333was normal, i.e. just approx. 1.12% (i.e. normal, not extended) of wave (1)(1)(1)(1)within 3,3,3,3, there is possibility that the ongoing (5)(5)(5)(5)may be extended. The 61.8% extension of (0)(0)(0)(0) to (3)(3)(3)(3) is11068. But, an extended (5)(5)(5)(5) can take Nifty beyond that, but we have to look at the internal waves of (5)(5)(5)(5)for this cancelation, if Nifty breaches 11000 with force. Elliott wave counts are subject to change withmarket movement.

Nifty monthly chart

BankBankBankBank NiftyNiftyNiftyNifty (weekly(weekly(weekly(weekly closeclosecloseclose approx.approx.approx.approx. 23937.7):23937.7):23937.7):23937.7):Last week’s technical: Bank Nifty opened on Monday with a gap up, breaking out from the smallconsolidation range. Then Bank Nifty retraced to 23512 which was close to hourly mid Bollinger line andfrom there rallied around approx. 200 points. Then again price retraced towards 34 hourly movingaverage and bounced again (approx 23520 to 23940). Then again on Friday, Bank Nifty came near tohourly mid-Bollinger line approx 23736 and bounced 180-200 points by day end. So, even Bank Nifty wasvery much trending this week and gave multiple opportunities based on hourly support zones.

Bank Nifty hourly chart

But still Bank-Nifty is lagging behind Nifty in this leg of the market. While Bank Nifty has closed near theprevious top, Nifty has moved much beyond.

NextNextNextNext weekweekweekweek’’’’ssss technicaltechnicaltechnicaltechnical possibilities:possibilities:possibilities:possibilities:

There is a possibility that Bank Nifty breaks out next week above previous resistance zone. Daily CCI hasmoved above 100 and daily fast stochastic is in overbought zone. If that happens Bank Nifty may movetowards approx. 24425 which is 100% projection of last up move from approx. to approx. 23898,projected from recent low approx. 22996. On the downside 20 dma and 34 dma may act as a support in23480-23520 zone. Below that, 50 dma, presently at approx. 23266, may act as a strong support.

Bank Nifty daily chart

LongerLongerLongerLonger termtermtermterm possibilitiespossibilitiespossibilitiespossibilities basedbasedbasedbased onononon probableprobableprobableprobable ElliottElliottElliottElliott wavewavewavewave counts:counts:counts:counts:

As we can see in the chart below, according to the probable we count we are within (3) within majorwave 5555. The 61.8% projection of move from 0 to 3333, from bottom of 4444 comes at approximately 24280. Butas wave 3333was just approx 1.3 times of wave 1111 (normal not extended) and also looking at the internalwaves of ongoing major wave 5555, we can assume that 5555 is likely to be an extended 5th wave. Also 100%projection of move from (0)(0)(0)(0) to (1)(1)(1)(1), from bottom of (2)(2)(2)(2) comes at approx. 24776. Elliott wave counts aresubject to change with market movement.

Bank Nifty Monthly chart

Below we give you a snapshot of relative strength and weakness of the entire market during last week.The classification is broadly based on sectoral strength and weakness.

DisclaimerDisclaimerDisclaimerDisclaimerElearnmarkets wants to inform you that this post/video is solely for educational purpose. We are notadvising any trading or investment ideas. We want to add that the data/indicator/signals contained in thiswebsite/post/video are not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs/traded instruments (stocks,indexes, futures, commodities) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by web basedcharting platforms, and so prices/indicators may not be accurate and may differ from the actual marketprices, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading or investing purposes. Therefore,Elearnmarkets doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of usingthis data/ indicators/charting platform. This analysis is purely based on the technical observations and notmeant for investing with real money. Elearnmarkets does not have any position in the market. One cancreate position in market at his/her own risk.

Elearnmarkets or anyone involved with Elearnmarkets will not accept any liability for loss or damage as aresult of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals/discussionscontained within this website/post. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated withtrading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

DisclaimerDisclaimerDisclaimerDisclaimer

Elearnmarkets wants to inform you that this post/video is solely for educational purpose. We are not advisingany trading or investment ideas. We want to add that the data/indicator/signals contained in thiswebsite/post/video are not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs/traded instruments (stocks, indexes,futures, commodities) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by web based chartingplatforms, and so prices/indicators may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market prices,meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading or investing purposes. Therefore,Elearnmarkets doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using thisdata/ indicators/charting platform. This analysis is purely based on the technical observations and not meantfor investing with real money. Elearnmarkets does not have any position in the market. One can createposition in market at his/her own risk.

Elearnmarkets or anyone involved with Elearnmarkets will not accept any liability for loss or damage as aresult of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals/discussions containedwithin this website/post. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading thefinancial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.