War College - Chaos, Complexity, And the Military

8/6/2019 War College - Chaos, Complexity, And the Military

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NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITYNATIONAL WAR COLLEGE

CHAOS, COMPLEXITY, AND THE MILITARY

JOHN GORE / CLASS OF 95MILITARY STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS

SEMINAR DFACULTY SEMINAR LEADER DR THOMAS KE ANEY

FACULTY ADVISOR DR WYVFRED JOSHL-X


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Thrs paper exammeschaosand complextty theory, two aspectsof the new scrence hathas sought to push beyond the Newtoman SCienhfiC paradigm that contmues o define thecore of Western scientific mqury 1 Whereas he Newtoman paradigm 1sconcernedwtthdeterrrrrmstrcmechamcs, inear causahty,and reductiomsm, advancementsm computersand computatronal mathematics.par~cularly over the past 20 or 30 years. have providednew tools for the study of non-hnear dynarmcprocesses. The new sciencepostulates thatstructure and determrmstlc rules he burred w&n nonlinear processes hat have beenlargely unaccounted for by Newtonian concepts Although sttll open to some srgnrficantchallenges. he new science epresents he potentral for a more profound paradigm shrfYm the Western world view than Alvm and Held1TofIlers popularzed formulatron of adetermnnstrc, echnology-drwen. and hrstoncally simphshc Thrrd Wave shift from aninduhd t0 an ILIfOmhOn age. *

The paper briefly explams he key concepts behmd chaosand complexity theory. looks atsome of the efforts to apply them to mthtary analysrs.exammes rittcrsms of thesetheones. and draws some nnphcatlons from them for the m&ary m the future.

Chaos Theory

Chaos heory IS he developmg sclentrfic study of no&near systems Linear systemsaredepicted by equations which share he charactenstrcs f proportronahty (where changesmmput are proportional to changesm output) and ad&tlvlty (m which the whole 1sequal tothe some of Its parts) Knowmg the mputs meansknowmg the output m lmear systemseven though the equationsdescnbmg them can be very complex This allows one to?redlct or forecast the systems development In contrast. nonlinear. or chaotic. systemsare characterized by complex feedback loops and large changes m results based on small


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The mathematical equations hat descrrbea chaotic systemcan be depicted as a phasespace. a plot of the parameters hat descrtbe he systemsbehavior. Each pomt on theplot representsa partrcular state of the system at a par~ular time. A smple example of aphase space S one whch plots the velocity and posmon of a pendulum as rt swmgs Thelonger a chaotic system 1sobserved. he messier he phasespaceplot appears. However.the paths taken by a chaotic system end to trace out a complicated, woven surface hatstrll remams wnhm some bounded regron of its phase space Chaos heorists term thecohechon of pomts on thrs woven surface an attractor--the regronsof phase space hatattract the systemsdynamrcs

The sensihvecharacterof chaotic dynamics makes predictmg the long-term behavior of asystem mpossrble, egardlessof how accurately one can measure ts current state.Nevertheless. racmg the systemsattractors reveals he relative amount of tune the systemspendsm certam reyons of its phase spaceand dustrates trends that can at least help mpredrctmg the future. Attractors indicate whether a chaotic system s m a regron of Itsphase spacewhere mmal condtttons are crmcal, m whtch casea large number of outcomesISpossible, or whether the system IS m a region of Its phasespacewhere mmal condtttlonsare not crmcal. m which casepredrctron of its short-term future IS more hkely 3

No one has clalmed that chaos heory can be used by Itself to dertve a theory of warfareHowe\ er. a number of authors ha\ e argued that war 1sessentrally haotic. or nor&near.and they have made efforts to apply chaos heory to vartous aspectsof \\ arfare Mrhtarystudents of chaos heory have suggested. or example. that campaignplanners can findcenters of gravay where nonlmear processesexist m an enemyspoiitcal. economrc. ormlhra~ system By rdentlfylng the attractors m this nor&near process.planners~~111know Lshheren attack IS ikely to achieve dlsproportlonately large effects An attractor


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can also provide key probabtity information to a m&tary declsronmakeron the hkelyshort-term future of an enemy system II many scenanos5 If the enemy system s m aregon of great uncertamty. chaos heory tmght also help a campaign planner determrnewhich condmons would need to be changed o move the system o a posltion where theoutcome was more predictable and desnable.

Chaos heory has also msp~ed a remterpretatlon. or reappreclatlon. of Carl vonClausewrtz as a no&near thmker whose ideas emam highly pertment. despite crittcs whoargue that OnWar 1sessentially outdated and no longer relevant o present or &turewarfare. Alan Beyerchen. for example, has demonstratedconvincmgly that Clausewitzpercaved war as a profoundly nonlinear phenomenon,as revealed II & tiusslons of themterplay of chance and probabhty, the effects of tic&on and the fog of war. and thedynamtcs of acttmgupon an enemy who IS subject to these same orces and who thmks andreacts 6 Other military analystshave potnted out that Clausewttz choosesa qumtessenfiafnonhnear metaphor to illustrate the mteractton of ti famous tnmty--pnmordiaI violence.hatred and enrmty. the play of chance and probaInhty, and wars subordmatlon as aninstrument of pohcy Our task, saysClausew~tz,9s to develop a theory that maintains abalance between these three tendencies. ie an object suspended etween three magnetsA pendulum suspendedbetween three magnets1sone of the elementaryphysicaldemonstrations of a chaotic system. smce he pendulumspath 1snonhnear andunpredictable i

Steven Mann. who calls the lnternatlonai envn-onment an evqulslte example of a chaoticsystem. argues hat U S rmhtary and national securrty strategy continue to rest heavily ona rqechamstlc ramework too arbitrary andsunple for the nonlinear processes hat are aninescapable eature of the complex. mnteractn mternatlonal system Mann pornts out thatour views of realq often rest on screntlfic paradigms. and the paradigm that contmues to


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permeate contemporary Western thought 1s he Newtonian worldvlew iSMe herecogmzes he hnxtatlons of any ii-amework. Mann believes hat chaos heory 1sumquelysuited to provoke us toward reahsttc pohcles 111n mcessantly hangeableage. andmaugurate he overdue hberatlon of strategic thought S

While one may agreewnh Manns eloquent call for a more encompassmgand flexibledefimtlon of strategy, hi argument raisesa central epistemological ssue It remams o bedemonstrated convmcmgly that the kinds of dynanz patterns (such as the Lorenz curve orbutterfly effect) ldentxfiedm mathematicsby apphcahonsof chaos heory necessaxAytranslate automahcdy mto the kinds of dynarmcs hat we note m human systems,such assocletles or arnnes It may be more probable that human systemsmap to matenal systemsonly m metaphorical ways. as Mann himself seems o suggest,and that the basictypologes common to human or cultural systemsneed o be thoroughly understood beforeattemptmg to apply (or n~sapply) chaos mathematics o war. intemat~onaI ekihons, orother human undertakmgs.

From Chaos to Compiexity

Chaos theory also has lost a good deal of the unpetus t seemed o enjoy a fav years ago.when enthusiastschnned that rt would eventually allow us to comprehend many, Snotmost, physxal. blologxal. and human phenomena Chaos heory has turned out to applyto a restncted set of phenomena hat changem unpredictableways 9 -Moreover. sclentlstsworkmg on nor&near dynarmcshave moved beyond chaos heory to what has becomepopularly knobn as complevlty theory IMnle chaos heory tells a lot about how certamsimple rules of behavior can gl\e nse to extremely comphcateddynarmcs andunpredictable outcomes. It has nothing to say about the seemmglymemorablegrowth oforder and structure m the urnverse--tncludmg he growth of order m human behavior. as


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mamfested m soclehes.economes. pohtrcal systemsand mrlimes--wtuch seems ust asmexorable as the mcreasem entropy and disorder (the second aw of thermodynamics) lo

Coinplexxty theory deals wrth systems hat are large collections of mteractmg agents Lrkechaohc systems. hese systemsshow complex structures n trme or space,often h&ngsmiple detemtrc rules In recent years. complexity theory has been apphed o a wrdevarrety of physical sciencedisciplines, m&ding mechamcal,elecmcal, chemtcal. marmeand aeronautlcal engmeermg,physics, astrophysics,and physical chemrstry Moreover,complexny models and paradrgmshave been used n developmentalbiology, ecology,neurology. and physrology, as well as econonncsand the social scrences.Complex systemsare held to exrst withm cultural, socnal, ohtrcal. and economrc spheresof human society

Despite therr diversity, complex systemssharecertam fundamental behavrors.

lZmxgm&behavlor Interactrons among agents n complex systemsmay lead toemergmg global (or system-wrde)propertres hat are very drfferent from the behaviorsofmdivtdual agents These properties. whrch cannot be predicted Tom poor knowledge ofthe agents. m turn affect the envrronment hat each agent perceives.miluencmg itsbehavior m a synergrstrc eedback oop Thus the whole of a complex system Ssomethmg greater than the sum of Its parts, and analysisof complex systems equrresaholistic approach

&q&ye-se&r Complex systems end to adapt to then environmentsand to self-orgamze Rather than tendmg toward disorder. or entropy, complex adaptivesystems spontaneouslycrystalhze mto more hlghiy ordered states. n contrast to weaklymteractmg systems solated from an envrronmentout of whrch they can draw energy (andthus counterporse he second aw of thermodynarmcs)


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recently compiled a list of 3 1 dBerent ways that complexity has been defined In addmon.complexrty theory often 1sunclear about what constitutes a system a longstandmg ssuem the socral sciences.where the term system 1sapplied ndiscriminately to a commumty,a society. an economy, a busmess orporatron. an army, etc Some leading proponents ofcomplexrty theory also have been taken to task for assertrnggrandly that thrs scientificparadigm will lead to a unified way of lookrng at nature, brologrcal phenomena,humansocial behavior. and the evolution of life and the universenself One should remarnappropnately skeptIcal of whether complexrty theonsts are any more hkely to succeedthan chaos heorists or other screntists-for example,quantum physicists--m creatmg agrand theory Moreover, as a recent cnhque suggested, omplexity theory is open to thecharge of bemg basedon a seductrvesyllogism: There are snnple sets of mathematrcalrules that. when followed by a computer, give me to extremely comphcated patterns. Theworld also contams many extremely complicated patterns It does not necessarrly ollow.however, that simple rules therefore underlie many extremely complicated phenomena nthe world. I2

These crrtrcrsmsand the overblown clarms of some complexity enthusiastsnotwithstandmg, insights drawn from complexny theory are berng applredprofitably to awade and growing variety of diicrplines Not surprrsingly,complexrty theory is bemgemployed m nxhtary and natlonal secunty analysts One major area s targetmgmethodologies A recent study by an Air Force analyst. for example. argues hat vlewrngan enemy economy as a complex adaptive system evealsmterconnectivmes hat go farbeyond the bottlenecks and choke pomts sought by previous an- argetmg planners-Accordmg to this study, while engrneermgand nodal analysesare begrnmng o appear 111mllttary wrrtmgs. they addressonly a smgle element of the economy, such as the electricpower or telecommunicationsnetworks What IS still needed IS a method that allowsanalysis ot multiple economic elements and preserves the complex mterconnectlons among


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the& Computer models such as genetic algomhms may be pamcularly suultedor tins krndof targetmg process, where the overall effects of attackrng an enemyseconomrcmf?astructure cannot be guesseda pnon I3

Complexrty theory may hold its potentially most profound nnplications for the mrhtary inthe area of command and control. In a recent revrew of prrze-wmmng essayson theRevolution rn -mtary Affarrs. Andrew Marshall observes hat the cmical aspectsof futurewarfare may center ess on tangble platforms than on concepts--espec&iy those relatedto command and control, wtuch are acult to envrsion,modeL and simuiate.i4Compiemty theory-m part~ular, the nOhOn that ditanes can be thou&t of as compIex,adaptive systems seekrng o thnve m the competnrve,chaotic envrronmentof warfare-liesbehmd a growmg debate over what kind of command and control systems are hkely toprove most effective rn &ture wars.

Implications for Command and Control

Complexny theory suggests hat one should look beyond he advantagesof dominantbattlefield awarenessexpected o accrue from the mrlitarys rncorporatron of newrnformatron technologresand consider the ruies iikeiy to govern the rnteractronof systemelements (defined m terms of rndrvrduais.combat umts. or weapon platforms). Thus. theArmys Force XXI drgrtrzedbattlefield concept can be vrewed as an effort to take f3iadvantageof mformatton processrngcapabthtes to provide more dynarmc and proactivetop-down command and control by drrectlon. The System of Systems effort advocatedby \tce Chanman of the Jornt Chiefs of Staff Admrral Owens also has the potential to beused as a vehrcie for enhancmgcentrahzed command and control through mcreasmglysyncbronlzed and snnultaneousoperations at the strategic and operational leveis I5


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in contrast to theseconcepts. he Marme Corps Sea Dragon rmttatrveenvrstonsa radicallynew. decentrahzedsystemof command and control Hahmarks of thts concept arecommand by mIluence through mtssion orders. reliance on the rmtiattve of subordtnatesbased on local smrattonalawareness. nd more self-contamedumts capableof semr-autonomous action on a drstriiuted battlefield. l6 If the mrhtary orgamzatlons are stewedas complex systems.complexity theory suggests hey are most hkely to succeedatlearmng and adaptmg o a turbulent envrronmentwhen there 1sa free flow of mformatlonamong system components hat rnteract accordmg o relahvey srmple,bottom-up rules.They are less ikely to be effectrve at learnmg and adaptmg to a chaotic envtronment whentherr behavtor 1sgovernedby top-down rules. Thus the nnphcahonsof complextty theoryare that many advantages f Infbrmatron Age warfare wrll be lost if dormationtechnologtes are employed rn efforts to enhance entrahzedcommand and control ratherthan to enable a more decentralized systemof command and control

Implications for Strategic Planning

Complexity theory also holds rmportant nnphcatrons or mthtary and national securrtystrategrcplanmng Andrew Marshalls comments on the current state of the debate overthe Revoiutron tn Mrhtary A&n-s notes that. whtle there appears o be a growmgconsensus hat major changes n warfare are underway. a coherent vtston of how warfaretmght look by the year 2015 and beyond seems acking-t Tins lack of a coherent vrston Sunsurprtsmg given prevathnguncertarnttesover the future kinds of threats andopportumtres the Umted States 1s ikely to face over the next severaldecades The lack ofconsensus 1sperhapsbolstered by chaos and complextty theortes. wnh then-stresson anonhnear. unpredictable future Complevlty theory also suggests hat predrctmg the long-term future IS ess mportant for a complex system to survwe than IS mamtalmng the ablhty -*learn and adapt to a rapidly changm; and largely unpredictable envu-onment Management


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analystswho have applied comple,xny heory methodologies have dentified set era1charactemtlcs that appear o produce the most successful elf-learmngorgamzatlonsmmkal process specticatlon Tom the top down, coupled with latitude to experunent.flexible orgamzational arcktectures. and permeableorgamzahonalbound;ures.18 Theimphcatzon S he most nnportant aspect of the Revolution m Ml&y AEars may lie in them&qs aMt$create and enhance he conditrons for contmumg adaptation to anamhguous. unprtictable long-term future


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1 Margaret Wheatiey, se New Sctcnc- e (San Francrsco Berrett-Koehler. 1992)2 Alvm and Her& Toffler, m Is a Tturd Wave B 3(CopyIlght pamphlet, 1995), War U-War. Surv~ DawmGzw (Boston Lrttle, Brown, and Company, 1993)3 JamesG&k, w a yew ti (New York Pengum Books, 1987)4 M~J Dawd Nichols, USAF, and MaJ Todor D Tagarev, Bulganan An Force. WhatDoes Chaos Theory Mean for W&e? mower Jc~d Fall 1994 555 . . . -Maj Glenn E James,chaos. The{(Newport, R-1. Naval War College student thesq 1995): 116-l 176. Alan Beyerchen, Ciausevvltz.Nonlmearq~ and the Unpr&ctabihty of War.Internatlonala 17/3 (Winter 1992-93) 59-907 Edward J. Vrllacres and Christopher Bassford, Reclanmng he Clausevvltzran rm~ty,a 2513 Almmii 1995)8 Stephen R Mann, Chaos Theory and Strategc Thought, parameters 2U3 (Autumn1992) 559 John Horgan, From Complexity to Perplexity, S_clentlficAmen= (June 1995)104-10910 I4 Mitchell Waidrop, de at theEdge of Order &Chats (New York Touchstone, 1992) 25811 -MaJSteven M Rinakb, USAF, -aI Web. Eccm2m,tc vmMetim (Maxwell AFB, AL School of Advanced An-power Studiesstudent thesis, ApnI 1995) 7-19, Russell Ruthen, Adaptmg to Compiexrty, &e.r&&Ai.nam~ (January 1993) 131-14012 Horgan 10713 Rmaidr 3 and 4914 Andrew W Marshall. The 1995 RMA EssayContest A PostscrtptT Joint Force8 1uarterly (Winter 1995-96)


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GORE 1315 Thomas J Czexwmsh. Command and Control at the Crossroads. &~U&QQE&.zeztg (October 1995) 13-1516 Gay W Anderson and Terry C Pierce, Leavmg the Technocranc Tunnel. ,IQUIX&;e w (Wmter 1995-96)69-75. czelsv?.nslu 14-1517 Marshall 81

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War College - Chaos, Complexity, And the Military