SCIENCE FOR IMAGINEERS

KAOS PILOTS FEB 2012

NICK JANKEL, WECREATE

@NICKWECREATE@NICKJANKEL

DAY 3CHAOS, COMPLEXITY & CYNEFIN

DRAW BREAKTHROUGH SYSTEM OF YOUR ‘PROBLEM’SPOT ASSUMPTIONSIDENTIFY SWEETSPOTS

COMPLEXITY

WORK WITH CYNEFIN MODEL, UNDERSTAND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FIELDS OF SIMPLE, COMPLICATED, COMPLEX AND CHAOS AND HOW THERE IS DIFFERENT METHODS TO APPLY WHEN YOU WORK IN THE DIFFERENT FIELDS.

BEING ABLE TO ANALYZE AND UNDERSTAND IF A PROBLEM IS IN THE VARIOUS FIELDS

TODAY

HEARTCLARITY, POSSIBILITY

ANTSNEITHER INDIVIDUAL NOR GROUP BEHAVIOURSIGNALINGADAPTATION TO WEATHER / ATTACKHOW THROUGH EVOLUTION?

COMPLEX / ADAPTIVEBRAINSHEART MUSCLEIMMUNE SYSTEMINSECT COLONIESGLOBAL ECONOMY

BRAIN

WEBFRACTAL

COMPLEXNON-LINEAR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOURFEEDBACK, SIGNALING & INFO PROCESSINGADAPTATION VIA LEARNING OR EVOLUTIONHAVE A HISTORYNESTED HIERARCHIESSELF-ORGANISED EMERGENCE

WEBOF CAUSATION

SELFORGANISATION

ORDER FOR FREE!

ORDERCOMES FROM DISORDER

DEFIESENTROPY!

LIFEC, H, O, N, S, P, FE CREATE ALL

ROBUSTNESS, FLEXIBILITY, SPONTANEOUS INNOVATION.

SEMI-AUTONOMOUS FUNCTIONING NEEDING MINIMAL SUPERVISION

SELF-ORGANISATION

CONTROLNATURAL RESPONSE TO FIX COMPLEX PROBLEMS

BUT LOSE RESILIENCE & CREATIVE OF SYSTEM (AND FAILS)

“If biologists have ignored self-organization, it is not because self-ordering is not pervasive and profound. It is because we biologists have yet to understand how to think about systems governed simultaneously by two sources of order, Yet who seeing the snowflake, who seeing simple lipid molecules cast adrift in water forming themselves into cell-like hollow lipid vesicles, who seeing the potential for the crystallization of life in swarms of reacting molecules, who seeing the stunning order for free in networks linking tens upon tens of thousands of variables, can fail to entertain a central thought: if ever we are to attain a final theory in biology, we will surely, surely have to understand the commingling of self-organization and selection. We will have to see that we are the natural expressions of a deeper order. Ultimately, we will discover in our creation myth that we are expected after all.”

STUART KAUFFMAN

BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES

BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES

BIRDSSTAY CLOSE (COHESION)MATCH DIRECTION & VELOCITY (ALIGNMENT)AVOID COLLISION (SEPERATION)

WHAT ARE THE ‘RULES’ FOR KP BEHAVIOUR?

WEATHERNON-LINEARNON-EQUILIBRIUM

BUTTERFLYEFFECT

CHAOSPOSITION, MASS, VELOCITY NOT ENOUGH TO PREDICT

HUMANSDO NOT OPERATE IN EQUILIBRIUMS EITHER

NETWORKSC. ELEGANSBRAINWEBHOLLYWOODNATIONAL GRIDMETABOLISMGENE EXPRESSION

NETWORKSSMALL WORLD

SCALE FREEHUBSHETEROGENOUS NODESSELF-SIMILARITY

RICHGET RICHER

EPIDEMIOLOGYSEXUAL HUBS IN HIV

1/n

FAILURECASCADING

RESILIENCEEXCEPT FOR HUBS!

PHASE TRANSITIONS

STASIS EDGE OF CHAOS INSTABILITY

DIVERSITY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH

FLOW OF INFO LOW OPTIMAL HIGH

RICHNESS OF CONNECTIONS LOW OPTIMAL HIGH

ANXIETY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH

POWER HIGH OPTIMAL LOW

EDGEOF CHAOS

MAXIMUM RATES OF GENERATION / EVOLUTION

COMPLEXITYCOSTS

BACKGAMMON

HOW DO YOU RATE ON THESE & WHICH IS STRONGEST & WEAKEST?AGILEATTENTIONEXPERIMENTROBUSTOPEN TO MULTIPLE POSSIBILITIES

MAKINGCHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS

“Thinking more deeply about institutions and complexity raises major dilemmas for development interventions. On the one hand, tackling poverty, achieving social justice and protecting the environment clearly require institutional transformation. On the other, institutions cannot be effectively changed in a neatly planned, top-down manner.”

JIM WOODHILL

“Don’t disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don’t understand their logic…  Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific ‘evidence’.”

N. NICHOLAS TALEB

REMEMBERDYNAMIC, RICH INTERACTIONSDIFFERENT PEOPLE, DIFFERENT LEVELSFEEDBACK LOOPSNON-LINEAR, UNPREDICTABLEEMERGENT CHARACTERISTICSSMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE LARGE IMPACTSHISTORY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

HUMANITYCHANGE CAN ONLY HAPPEN WITH PEOPLE

RECEIVEDWISDOM DOESN’T ALWAYS APPLY

CYNEFINIBM ET. AL.

“Often the only way to improve a complex system is to probe its limits by forcing it to fail in various ways.”

KEVIN KELLY

Disorder

Simple

Predictable causes and effectsUse best-practice

Focus on co-ordination

Complicated

Known causes and effectsUse good practice

Focus on co-operation

Complex

Understandable root causes Use emergent practice

(harness principles)Focus on collaboration

Chaotic

Unknowable causes / effectsUse new practice

Focus on co-creation

Sense. Analyze. Respond

Sense. Categorize. Respond

Sense. Explore. Respond

Explore. Sense. Respond

The Cynefin Model

BRAINSTORM PROBLEMS FOR EACH PART OF THE CYNEFIN MODELWHAT KIND OF INTERVENTIONS / APPROACHES?

“Part of reinventing the sacred is to heal...injuries that we hardly know we suffer. If we are members of a universe in which emergence and ceaseless creativity abound, if we take that creativity as a sense of God we can share, the resulting sense of the sacredness of all of life and the planet can help orient our lives beyond the consumerism and commodification the industrialized world now lives, heal the split between reason and faith, heal the split between science and the humanities, heal the want of spirituality, heal the wound derived from the false reductionist belief that we live in a world of fact without values, and help us jointly build a global ethic. These are what is at stake in finding a new scientific worldview that enables us to reinvent the sacred.”

STUART KAUFFMAN

HEARTCLARITY, POSSIBILITY

WHAT KIND OF CONTEXT ARE YOU WORKING IN?HOW DOES THIS IMPACT YOUR POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS?WHAT WOULD BE YOUR YEAR 1 IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY?

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSFRANK BARRETT & DAVID COOPERRIDER (AI)PETER SENGE (SYSTEMS)STANFORD ENCYLOPEDIA OF PHILOSOPHYWIKIPEDIAMICHELLE HOLLIDAY (COMPLEXITY)BELTOWSKA & RAE (SYSTEMS IMAGES)AIDAN WARD & RICHARD VERYARD (SYSTEMS)RICHARD SEEL (COMPLEXITY)

CONNECTNICK@WECREATE.CC

WECREATE.CC (THIS WILL BE UP IN FEW DAYS)NICKJANKEL.COM