VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST

UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D.

WEST CONSULTANTS, INC.

Pretty sure

Sort of sure

It’s a stretch

CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY PLOT

CNRFC 10-DAY SPAGHETTI CHART

CNRFC YEAR AHEAD FORECAST

14

Map edge implies more confidence than warranted.

Flooding Highly Likely

Flooding Possible

QUESTIONS?