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Page 1: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST

UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D.

WEST CONSULTANTS, INC.

Page 2: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 3: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 4: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 5: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

Pretty sure

Sort of sure

It’s a stretch

CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY PLOT

Page 6: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

CNRFC 10-DAY SPAGHETTI CHART

Page 7: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

CNRFC YEAR AHEAD FORECAST

Page 8: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 9: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 10: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 11: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 12: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 13: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 14: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

14

Map edge implies more confidence than warranted.

Page 15: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

Flooding Highly Likely

Flooding Possible

Page 16: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY
Page 17: VISUAL EXPRESSIONS OF FLOOD FORECAST …...FLOOD FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DAVID C. CURTIS, PH.D. WEST CONSULTANTS, INC. Pretty sure Sort of sure It’s a stretch CNRFC 10-DAY PROBABILITY

QUESTIONS?


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