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Draft

TOR for Consultancy to Develop Flood Forecast& Early Warning and

Inundation Modeling System including Topographic and Cross-section Survey of

Flood Plain and river water ways in Kosi Basin

INDEX

Sl.No. Content Page No.

1. Background 2

2. Objective of Consultancy 11

3. Scope of consultancy services 12

4. Schedule for completion of tasks 25

5. Data Services & Facilities to be

Provided by the client 29

6. Responsibilities of Consultant 30

7. Handling Restricted Data 30

8. List of Key Positions 31

9. Payment Schedule 34

10. Duration of Consultancy 34

11. Annexure 35

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TOR for Consultancy to Develop Flood Forecast & Early Warning and

Inundation Modeling System including Topographic and Cross-section survey of

Flood Plain and river water ways in Kosi Basin

1. Background

Bihar is India's most flood-prone State with 76 per cent of the population in the north living

under the recurring threat of flood devastation. Recurrent floods are devastating to Bihar’s economy

and undermine poverty alleviation efforts. Being flood prone not only affects existing investments,

but also is a disincentive for additional investments in Bihar. There is a need to develop a long-term

flood management strategy for Bihar based on analysis and stakeholder inputs that builds upon the

wisdom of the substantial documentation that currently exists on the problem.

The Kosi River avulsed into its paleo channels on 18th

August 2008 by breaching its Eastern

Afflux Embankment near Kusaha village in Nepal, about 12.92 Km. upstream of Kosi Barrage at

Bhimnagar. At the time of breach, the river discharge was below average flood and was about

162500 cusecs (4601 cumecs). This new channel of Kosi after the breach had drifted apart by about

112 Km from its pre-breach alignment by passing the barrage and the flood dykes built over the

years. In-depth analyses are pre-requisite to scientifically unravel the underlying causes so as to

evolve sound remedial measures. Prima facie, the basic cause narrows down to unabated streambed

aggradations due to heavy sedimentation triggering powerful flow vortices. These vortices cut

through the bank at vulnerable locations, thereby setting up the conducive conditions for the course

change.

Traditional efforts at flood management have focused on hardware systems, such as the

building of a system of embankments1,. Despite the largely structural solutions that have been the

focus of flood management in the past decades, the threat of floods remains as high as ever to the

detriment of economy and livelihoods in Bihar. There has been excellent Government of Bihar

documents (e.g. the 1994 Second Bihar Irrigation Commission Report, 2008 Sanyal Committee

Report etc) that point to the need for a mix of structural and non-structural measures. They also

emphasize that flood management needs to “form part of the overall comprehensive plan for

optimum development of water resources of a basin.” The Government of Bihar is intending to

strengthen the flood management and flood forecasting system after seeing the impact of Kosi

Flood 2008 under the ‘Bihar Kosi Flood Recovery Project’ (BKFRP) through a credit from the

International Development Association (IDA). The credit amount of US$220 million shall be used

1 Embankment hereafter also refers to all other structures like river training works, river bank protection works, etc.

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for the payments for goods, works, related services and consulting services to be procured under this

project.

The overall project objective is to support the flood recovery as well as future oriented risk

reduction efforts of GoB through (i ) reconstruction of damaged houses and road infrastructure (ii)

strengthening the flood management capacity in the Kosi basin (iii) enhancing livelihood

opportunities of the affected people and (iv) improving the emergency response capacity for future

disaster.

A variety of materials related to the status of floods in Bihar were produced using remote sensing

and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques. There is an opportunity with Bihar Kosi

Flood Recovery Project to build on this to improve GoB capacity to use state-of-the-art forecasts and

to enhance last-mile connectivity for flood preparedness and information management of Kosi River.

Fig. 1 Kosi Catchment in Himalaya

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1.2. Kosi Basin Characteristics

1.2.1 Origin

The River Kosi originates at an altitude of over 7000 m above MSL in the Himalayas. The

river is bound by the ridge separating it from the Tsangpo ( Brahamputra) River, while the River

Ganga forms its southern boundary. The eastern and western boundaries are the ridge lines,

separating it from the Mahananda and the Gandak/Burhi Gandak catchments respectively. The

highest peak in the world, the Mount Everest and the Kanchenjunga are also in the Kosi catchments.

The upper catchment of the river system lies in Nepal and Tibet. It enters the Indian Territory near

Hanuman Nagar in Nepal. It joins the Ganga River near Kursela in Katihar district.

1.2.2 Tributaries of River Kosi

In Nepal, this river is known as ‘Saptakoshi. It is formed by the confluence of seven smaller

streams namely the Sun Kosi, the Bhotia Kosi, the Tama Kosi, the Dudh Kosi, the Barun Kosi, the

Arun Kosi and the Tamar Kosi meeting above Tribeni, about 10 Km. upstream of Chatra. But for all

practical purposes, the confluence at Tribeni in Nepal is considered to be formed by the three major

tributaries out of the seven, the Arun Kosi from North, the Sun Kosi from West and the Tamur Kosi

from East. Arun, the longest of the three tributaries passes through Tibet, named there as Phung-chu,

drains the highest peak of the world i.e. the Mount Everest ( 8878 meter above MSL). The Tamur

Kosi drains the second highest peak, the Kanchanjunga and the Sun Kosi drains the eastern

Kathmandu valley in Nepal.

1.2.3 River Kosi in Plains

Below the confluence at Tribeni, the Kosi flows in a narrow gorge for a length of about 10 km., till it

debouches into plains, near Chatra in Nepal. Further down, the river runs in relatively flat plains of

Nepal terai consisting of sandy soil. The river flows through Nepal for 50 km. below chatra to

Hanuman nagar, before it enters the Indian Territory. From Chatra to Galpaharia the river flows in a

south-west direction in this reach, the westward swing of the river is restricted by the the

Mahabharat range. In the portion below Chatra, the river divides itself into several channels spread

over a width of 6 to 16 km. Below Hanuman Nagar, the river Kosi runs about 100 kms. In a sandy

tract and finds its way southward through a number of channels. After that, the river takes an

eastward direction and has a single defined channel. The main channel joins the river Ganga near

Kursela in katihar district. In plains of Bihar, the river has two important right bank tributaries, these

are the Bagmati and the Kamla balan. The other tributaries worth mentioning on the right bank are

the Trijuga and the Butahi Balan.

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Fig. 2 Regional map showing the course of the Kosi River and Embankment

1.2.4 Catchment

1.2.4.1 Catchment Area

The river Kosi drains a total catchments area of 74030 Sq.Km in India and other countries. Out of

the total catchments area of the Kosi, only 11410 Sq.Km lies in India and the rest 62620 Sq.Km lies

in Tibet and Nepal.

Table 1 Salient Features of the Kosi Basin

1. Total Drainage Area 74030 Sq. Km

2. Drainage Area in Bihar 11410 Sq. Km

3. Population in Bihar 66.55 Lakh

4. Water resources (Surface water) 52219 MCM

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5. Average annual rainfall 1456 mm

6. Total length of main river in Bihar 260 Km

7. Cropped area in Bihar 8694 Sq.Km

8.

Tributaries: Bagmati(R), Kamla Balan(R), Bhuthi Balan(R), Trijuga(R), Fariani dhar(L),

Dhemama dhar(L)

Table 2 Average Bed Slope of Kosi River In Different Reaches

Sl.No. Reach Average Bed Slope Remarks

1 0 Km. to 42 Km. 1 : 714, (1.4 m/Km.) Chatra to Barrage

2 42 km. to 68 Km. 1:1396,(0.716 m/Km) Barrage to Dagmara

3 68 Km. to 134 Km. 1:2222, (0.45 m/Km.)

Dagmara to near

Mahesi

4 134 Km. to 310 Km. 1:9090, (0.11 m/Km.)

Upto outfall in Ganga

near Kursela

The entire lower catchment is nearly a level country which is split into numerous “dhars” or the

old beds of Kosi river.

There are undulations and innumerable depressions called “Chaurs”, where waterremains

accumulated for most part of the year.

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1.2.4.2. Hydrology

The River kosi can be broadly divided into two parts from hydrology and hydrometeological point of

view. The upper catchment, which lies in Tibet and Nepal, comprises of about 80% of the total basin

area, has quite different characteristics with respect to the lower basin area ( i.e. 20% of the total

area) falling in Bihar. The upper catchment is mainly responsible for the hydrological behavior of

the river; where as lower catchment has little contribution to it.

1.2.4.3. Geology

The geology of the Kosi catchment, by and large, is unstable in nature and susceptible to heavy wear

and tear which ultimately increase sediment load in the flow of the river.

The drainage basin of the Kosi on the basis of soil characteristics can be divided into three zones:

(i) Upper catchment Zone- The upper catchment of the Kosi Basin lies totally in mountainous

region. The soils of this region are usually of three types, namely, (a) Mountain Meadow soil

(b) Sub-mountain soil and (c) Brown Hill soil

(ii) Mid area Zone- The mid area zone comprises the area between the mountainous and plain

portion of the catchment at the foothills of the Himalaya, also known as terai region, which

basically lies in Nepal. These terai regions have excessive growth of vegetation and weeds on

account of excessive moisture content.

(iii) Lower reach zone- Lower reach zone of the kosi basin in the basin in the plains comprises

large inland delta formed by the huge sandy deposit of the kosi river. On account of heavy siltation

of the order of 25 million cubic metre of sand/silt per year and thereby in the process of building up

the delta.

1.2.5. Morphology of The Kosi River

The Kosi River carries huge amount of sediment. The reason for that is that the river cuts across the

Himalaya sand, the Shiwalik ranges and high rainfall (mean1456 mm/yr) leads to extensive soil

erosion and landslides in its upper catchment. The silt load of the river is one of the highest in the

Indian sub-continent, about 95 MCM/yr. On reaching the plains, high aggradations of river bed and

sediment bed load offer enough resistance to the water, forcing the river to find alternate paths,

resulting in lateral shift of the river course. The river in the plain flows in several channels in a width

varying from 6 to 16 Km. The River before training used to move several km. in a year causing

excessive damage to life and property. Records show that between year 1736 and 1953 the river

moved through a distance of about 112 Km. westward till its course was confined through jacketing

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by constructing embankments on both the banks. Though shifting of a river is part of its natural

evolution process, other factors inducing this phenomenon could be earthquakes, landslides and

neotectonic activity. The Kosi River is responsible for many floods in Bihar. Afflux embankment

was constructed U/S of the Kosi barrage in a length of 12 km in the west and along 32 km in the east

to control the shifting and streaming the river towards the barrage. As far as the afflux embankments

are concerned, they are tied up at the two ends of the barrage and diverge upstream primarily to hold

the pool of water impounded behind the barrage and to contain the extent of submergence on both

sides of the river upstream of the barrage, both due to impoundment as well as due to backwater

effect of impoundment on the incoming flows. The afflux embankments get away from river

currents or velocities. To channelize the river flow in the downstream side, 125 km long eastern

embankment and a 101 km long western embankment were constructed with numerous spurs to keep

the river flow centrally. The building up of embankments on either side of the river confined the

river channel to some extent. The Kosi River has an average discharge of 55,000 cusec (1557

cumecs), which increases 18 to 20 times during peak floods. The highest flood recorded in recent

history of the river is reported to be 9,13,000 cusec (25854 cumecs) on 5th October, 1968. The Kosi

barrage has been designed for a peak flood discharge of ≈ 9,50,000 cusec. (26901 cumecs)

Fig.3 Showing Kosi River Course

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1.3. Flood Hazard

The Lower catchment of river Kosi and its tributaries are affected badly almost every year by severe

floods. As the river with its tributaries like Kamla Balan, Bagmati and Adhwara group emerge from

the hills and enter into plains of Nepal Terai and Bihar, their velocity of flow is reduced. This results

into increase in the depth of flow and reduction of silt carrying capacity. Due to reduction in silt

carrying capacity, silts are deposited into beds, resulting into rise of river bed and bank erosion. The

mouth of Channels also get choked too often causing shifts in courses, bringing new areas under the

grip of flood. This phenomenon is further attributed to the rise in the water level, which ultimately

results into overtopping and breaches of banks and flooding in the basin area. Breaches have

occurred in seven of the years from 1963 to 2011 and result from: (i) high discharge exceeding the

carrying capacity of the embankment, and (ii) intentional cuts along the jacketed portions of the

rivers by villagers. Outside of the mainstream of rivers, floods occur even when there is no

breaching, due to floods coming from tributaries, heavy rainfall in the local area and drainage

congestion.

1.4 Current Status of Flood forecasting

The flood forecasting organization of CWC has been conducting the flood forecasting work in the

Kosi river system since June 1970. At present there are three forecasting sites on the river Kosi,

namely, Basua, Baltara and Kursela with two base stations at Barahkshetra and Birpur Barrage. All

these sites are equipped with wireless system for efficient communication purpose. The method of

forecasting is practically on the basis of gauge to gauge co-relations among these stations in the

network.

The method used for formulating the forecasts by the Central Water Commission is gauge to gauge

correlation between the upstream (base station) and downstream (forecasting station) gauge on the

river stretch. This statistical procedure also takes into account the variation in travel time, variation

during rising and falling flood stage, and flood wave characteristics.

The procedure establishes the relationship between observed gauges at the forecasting station and

the base station using the historical data on gauges. These relationships are presented as correlation

graphs for respective stretches. There have been improvements brought about in these relationships

by incorporating the change in gauges to account for the changes in the river profiles due to

aggradations or degradations. Different correlation graphs have also been developed and used for

rising and falling stages. The flood forecasts are made at the following forecasting stations in the

Kosi system.

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Basua is the first forecasting site on the river Kosi where co-relationship between change in

discharge with change in gauge at Barahkshetra base station and the corresponding gauge

observations at Basua is developed having time of travel ie. Warning time as 24 hours. However, the

warning time at Basua forecasting site is reduced to 16 hour when co-relationship of discharge

released and gauge observation at Birpur barrage and corresponding stages at Basua is established.

Baltara is the second forecasting station on the river Kosi having co-relations of Gauge observations

between Basua and Baltara. The river Bagmati along with the river Kamla-Balan meets the river

Kosi at a point which is slightly upstream of Baltara. So the gauge at Hayaghat site on the river

Bagmati is also co-related with the gauge at Baltara which gives another parameter for forecasting at

this site. The travel time for Basua to baltara is 18 hours and from Hayaghat to Baltara is 28 hours.

Kursela,which is the third and the last forecasting site on the the river Kosi, is affected by the back

water of the river Ganga. Therefore, the gauge at Kursela is co-related with the the gauge at

Hathidah on the river Ganga as well as with the gauge at Basua. The travel time from Basua to

Kursela is 26 hours.

The overall performance of forecasting made at all three stations have been found to be quite

satisfactory when compared with actual gauge levels. However, the forecasting can be further

improved by increasing the warning time if more gauge –discharge sites being established by CWC

in the upper reach of the river Kosi In Nepal portion start functioning.

1.5. Need to improve current forecasts

The gauge to gauge relationship has a limitation of waiting for the forecast to be made till the flood

is observed through the gauge of the base station upstream of the forecasting station. Therefore in

the process, the possible travel time available in the form of catchment lag up to the base station is

lost that can be added to the total forecast lead time. Such lead time can be easily added by

introducing a hydrological model that can transform the observed rainfall into a simulated

hydrograph at the base station catchment lag time before it is observed.

The gauge to gauge relationship procedure is not incorporating any addition of flow between the

stretches from base station to the forecasting station. In a conventional hydrological modeling

approach such additional flow through the intervening basin is considered and thus provides the

opportunity of improving the forecasts. Further, there is need for improvement of lead time based on

rainfall/climate forecasts available NOAA, IMD, and European Centre for Median Range weather

Forecast, which can give three days or more advanced warning of rainfall events. Such endeavor has

been successfully tried in many countries including neighboring country Bangladesh. The rain gauge

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stations with wireless facilities have been installed but are not being used in the present procedure of

flood forecasting. If these rain gauges are converted into self recording and telemeter stations then it

is possible to enhance the forecast lead time.

The present system of forecasting is capable of providing the gauge forecast at the forecasting site

with the assumption that there is no breach in the embankments between the stretches. The method

also does not provide any other information on the water surface profile in the stretch that is very

crucial from the embankment safety point of view.

Another major limitation to correlation method is the availability of prediction only at selected sites

and not all along the river.

2. OBJECTIVES OF CONSULTANCY

The objective of this Consultancy services comprises two parts. The first part of this consultancy is

to conduct ground topographic survey of floodplain and cross-sectional survey of river ways

including its tributaries to develop appropriate Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The second part is to

equip the FMIS Cell with a comprehensive model/ suite of models for improved flood forecasting

and warning system based on the flood forecast utilizing currently available and anticipated through

real time aquistion hydrological, meteorological, and other data, upgradable Flood Forecast model

of the Kosi river from Barah-kshetra in Kosi basin to support effective flood management. This will

also include Inundation mapping tool to predict extent, time of arrival, duration and depth at the

community level in the case of breach of Embankment at any location, U/S as well as D/S of Birpur

Barrage based on DEM and topographic and x-section survey data of Kosi Basin including its

tributaries in North Bihar as well as in Nepal portion.

NB: The consultant staff would need to work in FMISC,WRD premises in Patna for the access to

and use of available data (topographic maps, DEM data, CWC stage/discharge data, etc).

The major tasks of the consultancy are given below:

a) Provide comprehensive review of current approaches to ground topographic survey, flood

forecasting & warning system and Inundation Modeling of river basins for better flood

management and disaster risk reduction purposes;

b) Detail topographic & cross-section survey of approximately 17000 sq.km for Kosi river

basin and its tributaries from Barah-kshetra (Nepal) to Kursela (Bihar) confluence with river

Ganga to develop appropriate Digital Elevation Model (DEM) aiming to 05 cm absolute

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and relative vertical accuracy for Development of a well caliberated and validated Flood

Forecast and Inundation modeling system.

c) Select and develop appropriate models and integrated hydrologic forecast and warning

systems to provide flood forecasts for any location with longer lead-time (at least 72 hours

before) and improved accuracy (compared to current status) with warning and inundation

maps in any location of Kosi river from Barah-kshetra to Kursela, confluence with river

Ganga in Kosi Basin including its all tributaries..

d) To design and develop necessary Plan for additionally needed measuring

equipment/structures (gauges, discharge and sediment), Supervisory Control and Data

Acquisition (SCADA) and telemetry options compatible with flood forecasting, early

warning and inundation modelling and also to develop their technical specifications, cost

estimates and bid documents of agreed option for procurement.

e) The consultant should also incorporate detail modalities for effective coordination amongst

government agencies responsible for collecting, interpreting, and disseminating warning

information to the public/users, direct community participation in deploying early warning

systems and the system that will be able to adjust to varying degrees of intensity of future

events.

f) Provide mapping features/software to display model results spatially (i.e. inundation zones,

flood levels, etc).

g) Provide hands-on training to build a team of flood forecasting professionals within the FMIS

Cell and the Department of Water Resources

3. SCOPE OF CONSULTANCY SERVICES

The Flood Forecast & Early Warning and Inundation modeling approach needs to take note of data

availability in Kosi River Basin including its tributaries like Kamla Balan and Bhutahi river and of

most of the catchments which lies in Nepal. The primary data for development of a well caliberated

and validated Model would depend upon precise level data at close interval across the river ways

and flood plain for creating a precise cross section i.e appropriate Digital elevation Model with a

precise vertical accuracy. Therefore the consultants responsibility within the scope of this

consultancy would be to conduct detailed ground survey in Kosi, Kamla & Bhutahi river basins in

Bihar along with the survey in Nepal region also. All these rivers are embanked almost completely

on both sides. In general the topography is almost flat with occasional subtle rise along the river

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banks. The plain is built by normal fluvial process hence typical landforms like abandoned River

channel, Natural levee and back swamps are present throughout. The ever changing course of rivers

draining through this region has left many remnants of old rivers; mighty and feeble; and associated

topographies, creating a complex network of low natural levees. It is these subtle topographic ‘highs

and lows’ which ultimately determine the pattern and extent of flooding caused by excess flow in

these rivers during monsoon.

Any modeling exercise would require shape of the land as a primary input. The present consultancy

package aims at addressing this challenging problem of creating a precise elevation model of river

and enclosing structures using modern survey techniques.

The Consultant’s services under this component will be to: (i) Prepare a survey plan along with

selection and fixation of additional Bench Marks, (ii) Carry out Topographic and Cross- section

survey using modern survey tools like DGPS linked ETS Survey Methods/Total Station/Auto Level

instruments in view of the speed of survey, computerization of information and possibilities for easy

updating of information, use for further spatial analysis or consultants can select another Survey

method to get the desired objective of the Client. (iii) Prepare outputs like Contour and DEM and

submit for verification.The model should be developed keeping in mind of theses constraints.

In addition to above the proposed forecasting model and Warning system in this consultancy will

consist of linkages to hydrological and spatial databases. The inundation mapping developed will be

dynamically linked to the Embankment Asset Management System (EAMS) and Hydrological

Information System (HIS) being developed by FMISC,WRD separately for Kosi river basin. The

application software shall be customized with user-friendly interfaces, and linked to the Spatial Data

System in Arc GIS environment, for generating model inputs, and to visualize model outputs up to

community level. The model results would also be web-enabled in the FMISC website. The system

should be able to convert the outputs to SMS alerts to designated recipients. Suggestions for

additional functionalities to improve ease-of-use and encourage utilization by the operators and the

FMISC,WRD are encouraged from the consultant. The consultant is expected to accomplish the

following major tasks:

Task 1. Review of Current Methodology of Ground Topographic survey, Flood Forecasting &

Early Warning and Inundation Modeling

The various activities in Task I include a review of current methology and approach of ground

topographic survey with all pros and cons. The consultant has to do the Reconnaissance survey of

the area of interest by visual observation supported with the high resolution satellite imegeries to

collect information and prepare a survey plan to finalize the complete sequence of working,

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establishment of control points and submit with the Inception Report on appropriately scaled index

maps. The consultant is required to select appropriate Survey of India (SoI)GTS (Great

Trigonometrical Survey) bench mark from the existing ones and prepare a table of all the GTS

benchmark and additional established bench mark for the whole survey area. This survey plan would

also reflect to ensure survey for timely job completion with desirable accuracy as per design norms

using the the most suitable latest modern technology.The consultant would also prepare a report that

will consist of the project appreciation, detailed scheduling of micro level activities, work output and

critical man power deployment schedule, proforma for data collection, identification of social and

environmental sensitive areas, key plan of the area, identification of various Government agencies

and project clearances, quality assurance plan (QAP) documents and clearances, if needed.

The task also include experiences in flood forecasting & early warning for weather and river flows in

the Kosi river basin, and identify possible approaches. The modeling approach should cover both

flash flood in the upstream portions, as well as longer duration riverine flood in the gauged main

stem as well as in the ungauged tributaries and persisting water-logging in the lower portions. The

detailed tasks will include:

a) Provide a general overview of conducting Topographic and X-section survey with their

technology, methodoly and accuracy and international experience with flood forecasting &

early warning systems. Evaluate existing flood forecast & early warning approaches and

inundation mapping in the Kosi river basin, and identify possible improvements.

b) Collect inventory data available from national and global sources for the Kosi river basin and

evaluate adequacy, frequency and data quality for possible use in the proposed flood forecast

& early warning and inundation model. The accuracy and reliability of rainfall estimates and

forecasts from global sources such as National Weather Service in the USA, and the rainfall

forecast from India Meteorological Department would be evaluated and appropriate modes of

integration in the flood models would be identified.

c) Recommend optimal upgrading of existing IMD and CWC network including telemetry to

better support flood modeling, particularly for the flash flood modeling (in Bihar portion due

to steep slope of river from Chatra to Birpur Barrage)where the resolution of rainfall data

may be inadequate to predict rainfall generated flash floods.

d) Evaluate a range of potential flood forecast models including statistical correlation, ANN,

stochastic models, and conceptual hydrological/hydraulic models using currently available

hydrologic and hydraulic data in the pilot basin of Kosi River system. Identify possible

package of appropriate models for improvement in forecast with regard to lead-time and

accuracy. Advantages /disadvantages and strengths / weaknesses of each option should be

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elaborated. The candidate model/s would be finalized after discussion with the FMISC,WRD

staff.

Outputs:

1. Inception Report reflecting Task 1 assignment and findings, Map and table of

Benchmarks, methodology to be used in conducting the survey and modeling approach,

including process report of consultations and actions taken

Task 2. Detail Topographic and X-sectional Survey and Generation of DEM

The activities under Task-2 is to collect precise level data at close intervals to generate cross-section,

contour and DEM, assisted with high resolution satellite images for precise targeting of crucial data

collection point. The tolerance for vertical accuracy should be well within 05 cm.

The consultant shall assess the quantum of work in advance and if need be; shall engage partner

firms to finish the survey work within stipulated time frame.

The combined approach would yield a better interpolation depicting ground shape as close as reality

across the selected river reaches and the associated embankments for creating a precise cross section,

from countryside NSL on one bank to countryside NSL on the other bank, including channel bed

profile. This will be done for an area of approximately 17000 sqkm of the Kosi basin in Bihar and

Nepal annexed map (Annexure-1),. This will provide all data on channel design, Embankment

layout and land-cover, channel long section (Thalweg), disposition of associated structures etc in a

strip pattern which would become an integral part of the flood and Inundation modeling systems as

well as Embankment Database Module which is being developed under separate consultancy in

parallel, which would support flood management functions in the State including maintenance of

existing embankment, anti-erosion works and flood fighting works etc. and planning of new flood

control structures. The details activities under this Task would include:

a) Preparation of survey plan and selection and fixation of additional Bench Marks. There are

many benchmarks, established by SoI in this area. The consultants are required to select

appropriate benchmarks from the existing one, extend to survey area, validate for accuracy

and reliability, establish additional benchmarks, erect permanent benchmarks and label them

properly for future use. They are required to prepare a table of Geographic co-ordinates and

elevation of these benchmarks for storage as well as future reference. A workplan in map

form shall be prepared before conducting actual benchmark survey so that FMISC or Field

officers under WRD could check that the objective of such a detailed survey is fully met. The

consultant would establish bench mark throughout the survey area in a manner that the detail

survey for cross section could be initiated from any point to any point, drawing reference level

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from a nearby benchmark. This uniform distribution of pre-checked and established

benchmark will also help in keeping “closing errors” under control.Permanent structure will

have to be erected for primary BM as per standards laid out in survey manuals and secondary

benchmarks may be marked on permanent structures like bridge piers, HT transmission line

poles, culverts etc. French (Seno Markers) pegs may be used wherever a permanent structure

is not available. In general a concrete pillar of 2 meter length, buried 1.5 mtr, would sufficient

but a different and more suitable design may be proposed by the consultant if found to be

more appropriate for this project area. Markings on concrete structures may be slightly

engraved and those on iron/steel structures may be painted with high quality paint. Any other

better options are always welcome however. This exercise is basically to ensure easy access

by future missions visiting the area for re-survey purposes. The drawing of layout plan would

be prepared in ArcGIS showing River Plan, Cross-section, Gauge location, all structures,

refrence points and other salient features along with the river and Flood plain.

b) Carry out Topographic and Cross-section Survey preferably using modern technology like DGPS

linked ETS Survey Methods supported with the Total Station and Auto Level instruments for the

approximately 17000 sq.km area of entire Kosi, Kamla, Bhutahi basins in Bihar including Nepal

portion from Barah-shetra upto border line for development of an accurate and realistic cross-

section and DEM. The consultants are free to select another method of survey but the primary

objective of the client would be fulfilled. The details of topographic and X-section survry would

include :

The cross-section in the corridor of the Main river for Kosi and its tributaries within

Embankment/ high banks would be recorded from bank to bank at an interval of 1

km longitudinal and shall extend at least up-to 500 m beyond the country side toe of

embankments or river banks on either side. The levels on each cross-section would

be recorded at suitable lateral intervals between 30M -50M depending upon the

width of the river and locations of breaks of slope. All breaks of slopes such as

embankment toes, top edges, berm, river bank, river terraces (if any) etc. must be

recorded. The section should be nearly perpendicular to the flow of the channel.

Start and end points of each section has to be marked clearly and precisely on a detail

base map of the area under study. This cross-section survey would also include the

cross-section at every spur supported with the hydrographic survey at nose of the

spurs located on both side of Eastern and Western Embankment and also at Eastern

and western Afflux bundh. The longitudinal distance may be increased in straight

approaches up to 3 km and a closer spacing less than 1km would be advisable at

17

meandering courses with the permission of the Engineer-in-charge. Bed level of spill

channel, tributary junction and canal outfall (if any) must be recorded as these are

crucial to flood water routing exercises.The terrain under question is practically flat

with little highs and lows but this subtle difference in elevation is of utmost

importance hence care must be taken to record such changes. This requires an

accuracy of +/- 5cm. Majority of rivers to be surveyed are small ones hence bed

depths should be recorded with direct methods rather than echo-sounders. Thalweg

of rivers must necessarily be recorded.

During surveys it is required to collect information on structures such as cross-

drainage works, spurs, river training works, gabion protection works, road crossings,

bridges, anti-flood sluice gates etc., with associated digital photographs with GPS

information for each. Pertinent information such as location, design drawings of

these structures as available from the different agencies, measurements of visible

dimensions, current status (working, damaged, choked, repairable or not) should be

recorded. All information, spatial in nature, should be located on map with

appropriate symbols/ notations in ArcGIS format. Any other relevant features,

natural or man-made, found in the survey area shall be surveyed and documented.

Water Level of the river during survey period with time and date must be recorded

The cross-section of river at Gauge locations and structure shall be recorded at 1km

U/S and 1 km D/S of the Gauge site and structure in addition to the x-section at

Gauge site/ structure site.This will make 3 Nos X-section for each cross-section foe

each gauge site/structure site.The confluence point of all the river must be recorded.

The cross-section at U/S of tributaries and main river and D/S of confluence point

must be recorded.

Ground survey of floodplains within embankment and out side of the embankment on

both side @ 100m or closer grid (spot levels) in consultation with Engineer incharge

would be conducted to develop appropriate DEM to develop inundation modeling

aiming 05 cm accuracy.

Outputs: Three hard copies and two soft copies (in Ms-word/ Excel/ ArcGIS format) of detailed

report containing following contents shall be submitted:

1. Detailed Methodology with detailed technical description and accuracy of instrument

used, site selection of all controls point with justification,Photograpgs and brief notes on

control points in UTM, WGS 84 projection system. The desired output of the survey

18

would cover all technical guidelines issued by the Ministry of Environmental and forests

, Govt. of India

2.Drawings prepared in ArcGIS showing River Plan, Cross-section, Gauge location, all

structures, reference point, Road/rail bridges, H.T. line etc with related parameter

available at site and other salient features as directed by the Engineer in Charge along the

River.This drawings would also cover list of the Stream etc with the chainage and bank.

3. Detail Plan of each river cross-section showing starting and end point co-ordinate of

cross-section in projection system being used at FMISC with graph of all cross-section

and its value in Excel/DXF,DXG or DGN format.

4. Digital Topographic Data Requirements should be as:

Surface Description- Bare-earth surface

Vertical Accuracy;

Absolute Vertical Accuracyz - <5 cm

Relative Vertical Accuracyz - <5 cm

Vertical accuracy at the 95% confidence level(Accuracyz) =RMSEz *1.9600 with normal

distribution,

Horizontal Accuracy;

Absolute Horizontal Accuracyr - <10 cm

Relative Horizontal Accuracyr - <10 cm

Horizontal accuracy at the 95% confidence level(Accuracyr) =RMSEr *1.7308

Data Model;

1. Contour

2. DEM (post spacing = 1 meter)

Horizontal Datum - WGS 84

Coordinate System - UTM

Units Note: Vertical (V) units may differ from Horizontal (H) units

Meters to 2 decimal places

Data Format;

Digital contour lines and break lines- Mass points and TINS - DEMs

.DGN ASCII x/y/z GeoTiff

.E00 TIN Arc/Info Export File

.SHP

19

File size or Tile size

File size - MB

Tile size - *

Task 3. Flood Forecasting Model

Accurate and reliable flow/flood forecasting forms an important basis for efficient real-time

river management and disaster response. The consultancy would select/develop an appropriate suite

of models to generate improved flood forecasts with increased lead-time in the Kosi river basin

using currently available hydrologic data. The flood forecast model selected should have direct

linkages to the hydrological and spatial databases, allowing the automated import and pre-processing

of current data. Additional thematic basin maps, not available with FMISC,WRD as required by the

selected model would need to be generated by the consultant. The consultant would establish the

validity of data prior to using in model development. Scenario analysis should also be possible.

The open front-end data interface would allow the system to be coupled to virtually any

hydrological or hydraulic model in order to obtain predictions of water levels and flows in the model

domain. The model/suite of models should be capable of simulating a wide range of discharge

hydrographs and long stream reaches. The model should take into consideration the catchments

characteristics, flooding and drainage scenario, embankment conditions and topography of the area.

The consultant has to develop model to forecast water level and discharge at any location of the Kosi

River from Brah-shetra to confluence with Ganga River and in tributaries from start to outfall with

Kosi River river but Specific forecast locations may be determined in conjunction with the

FMISC,WRD team if required. Preference may be given to free and public access software/ models

that do not require special licenses and/ or have user restrictions (e.g. dongles).This shall have to be

decided based on justification amongst equally suitable models. Cost-free model will be preferred. If

the Consultant prefers licensed version of software it will ensure to deliver at least 5 License with

free dongles.

The model has to be developed, calibrated and validated using the historical and current data and

will be run on forecasted short and long-term weather inputs calibrated with real-time data obtained

from existing and upcoming data from the Monitoring Network. The flood modeling study shall

evaluate and appropriately use currently available forecasts of India Meteorological Department

(IMD) for the basin of up to 3 days (or longer if feasible). Use of rainfall forecasts from various

global sources (e.g. NOAA, European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) would need to

be also considered. The detailed tasks will include:

20

a) Evaluate and incorporate rainfall estimates/forecasts and climate forecasts from national

and/or from global sources in the flood forecasting methodology, and assess improved

performance.

b) Develop the most appropriate calibrated and validated model/package of flood forecasting

models based on observed and forecasted short and long-term meteorological and hydrologic

variables.

c) Review and identify possible approaches to test different flood inundation scenarios. For

instance, the model suite could examine the impacts of embankment (levee) breach generated

inundation at vulnerable locations along the embankment or generate inundation scenarios

for different flood magnitudes. Advantages /disadvantages and strengths/weaknesses for each

scenario development options should be elaborated.

d) Develop necessary plan (including designs & drawings) for additionally needed measuring

equipment/structures (gauges, discharge and sediment) on telemetry based system etc,

SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) compatible with the proposed flood

forecasting, early warning and inundation modeling system and also develop technical

specification with its estimates and bid documents of agreed option for procurement.

The selected approach would be finalized after discussion with the Standing Review committee

constituted by WRD.

Improved flood forecast procedures may have to incorporate outputs from a range of other models

including reliable medium range rainfall forecasting in the catchments; rainfall-runoff modeling in

the upstream Nepal catchments to convert rainfall forecast into runoff forecast; hydraulic routing to

downstream catchments areas. Routing models would require the hydraulic data of river cross-

section and of the flood plain. These will be clarified during the initial inception phases of this

consultancy.

The models should cover both flash floods due to steep slope of river from Chatra to Barrage in the

upstream portions as well as longer duration floods and persisting water-logging in the lower

portions. The approach needs to take note of possible modeling constraints such as aggrading rivers,

rapidly shifting river course and changing cross-section, and breaches/controlled sluice openings

during flood situations. Other constraints may be data availability in Nepal portion of river basin,

particularly real-time high-frequency rainfall measurements. The consultant will have to explore and

acquire real time data to develop better flood forecast model which are not available at FMISC,WRD

from different networks especially for upper catchment which lies in Nepal and as well as in Bihar

portion, if required. The quality of historic data (changing datum, observational errors, and poorly-

21

maintained measuring equipment) would need to be evaluated before use in model development. Use

of climate forecasts will be required. These may come from public domain sources such as the

USGS daily rainfall, National weather service of NOAA and the 3 day forecast from IMD. This

will be completed during the initial inception phase. Model limitations for predicting extreme flood

events would need to be considered.

Outputs:

1. Calibrated and validated model for flood forecasting in the Kosi river from Barah-shetra

to Kursela, confluence with Ganga river in Kosi Basin with longer lead time.

2. Consultant will have to give a plan for additionally needed equipment/structures (Gauges,

discharge and sediment on telemetry based system etc.), SCADA compatible with the

proposed flood forecasting, early warning and inundation modelling system and also

develop the technical specifications with detail costing and bid documents of agreed

option .

3. Customized front-end data module to extract and interface user-selectable model

parameters such as rainfall measurements, estimates and forecasts from global and

national sources, and thematic data from the spatial data system, and other parameters

4. Appropriate flow/ flood warning reporting formats

Task 4. Flood Early Warning System

The Early Warning System (EWS) for floods in Kosi river Basin developed from the integrated

flood forecasting system, during the flood season will help mitigate the flood related hazards by

disseminating warning to the users/target communities, a range of government and non-government

organizations, media groups and other interested parties. It would thus form a very important and

relatively inexpensive nonstructural flood control measure. The consultancy would develop an Flood

warning system with the Flood forecast model for the Kosi river basin as an integrated real time

warning system. Currently the state of Bihar does not have a comprehensive flood early warning

system. The aim is to utilize this consultancy to develop a warning system based on the flood

forecast with increased lead time. Thus the consultant would develop a warning system along with

the forecasting. This system will at a later stage would continue to improve with the improvement of

the flood forecast model. These would subsequently be processed into web-enabled formats as well.

These will also be dynamically linked for real time data exchange with the flood forecast model

(Task-3), Embankment Asset Management System (EAMS) and Hydrological Information System

22

(HIS) being developed by FMISC,WRD, Patna under other consultancies. Specific sub-tasks

include:

a) Develop a flood warning system based on the Flood forecast model for the Kosi basin as an

integrated system with a real time warning system. This system will at a later stage be improved with

the improvement of the flood forecast model

b) Suggest modalities for effective coordination amongst government agencies responsible for

collecting, interpreting, and disseminating warning information to the public;

c) Direct community participation in deploying early warning systems; and

d) Systems that will be able to adjust to varying degrees of intensity of future events.

Outputs;

1. Develop a Flood warning system based on the Flood forecast model for the Kosi basin as

an integrated system with a real time warning system.

2. Develop modalities for effective coordination amongst Government agencies such as

WRD, IMD, CWC, DMD etc. responsible for collecting, interpreting, and disseminating

warning information to the public;

3. Develop mechanism for direct community participation in disseminating and deploying

Early warning system; and

4. Develop a system which will be able to adjust to varying degrees of intensity of future

Events.

5. Prepare manuals and guidelines for flood warning systems.

Task 5. Flood Inundation Modeling

The results of the flood forecasting model should be then processed automatically in a GIS-based

environment into maps of flood inundation extent, depth, arrival time, and duration, with other

relevant themes in the background. These inundation maps would subsequently be processed into

web-enabled formats. The inundation mapping tool will be dynamically linked for real-time data

exchange with the flood forecast model (Task 3), Embankment Asset Management System (EAMS)

and Hydrological Information System (HIS) being developed by FMIS separately for Kosi river

basin.

The inundation mapping tool would update the input data file continuously so that current values are

used in the model. In times of embankment breach or for breach analysis, for example, the mapping

23

tool should be able to predict the inundation based on the topography. Various baseline data sets

will be required for this task (e.g. DEM, embankment location). Specific sub-tasks include:

a) Develop appropriate inundation models to predict inundation extent, depth, arrival time and

duration in any location in the North Bihar in Kosi basin;

b) Develop customized application software with Graphical User Interface (GUI) for the flood

model package, with interface to FMISC information systems (HIS, EAMS, Spatial data

system, etc) for dynamic updating;

c) Calibrate and validate the flood forecast model and inundation mapping using historic data,

and possibly during a flood season prior to project closure.

d) Develop a module to generate community targeted inundation forecasts and/or alert messages

(via SMS) and web-posting to display predicted maps based on user-selected geographical

area and time period.

The methodology development would be based on the local inundation mechanism, and existing data

availability that are likely to be available during the project period. The mapping tool would need to

take note of the multiple causes of flooding in any location. Inundation could be from embankment

breaches and cuts along the jacketed portions of the rivers, over-bank flow in the un-

jacketed/jacketed portions, tributary flooding backing up behind the embankments, local heavy

rainfall and impeded drainage in other areas. The user should have the ability to test these various

scenarios. Moreover, the output from the improved flood forecast model along with topographic

information will lead to inundation mapping along the main-stream of the Kosi River. Inundation in

other areas, where gauged river data is not available, may be based on other approaches relating

upstream rainfall to observed inundation.

Outputs:

1. Calibrated and validated flood inundation model predicting inundation extent, depth,

arrival time and duration at any locations in Kosi basin ;

2. Customized application software for extracting and inputting data, and to interface the

inundation forecasting model with other FMISC systems. Both the flood inundation

model and the inundation forecast model should have the facility to dynamically update

the input data file.

3. Web-ready model results with links to the FMISC,WRD website and interfaced for real-

time data exchange with other FMIS information systems such as the Spatial database,

Hydrological Information System (HIS), and Embankment Asset Management System;

24

4. System enabled to convert the outputs to SMS alerts to designated recipients;

Task 6. Capacity-building and Training

A key objective of this consultancy is to ensure that the systems developed in Task 2, 3, 4 and 5 are

used in practice and address the critical needs and requirements of the various operators and

stakeholders in the WRD. This will require substantive training from the Consultants. This may

include:

a) Calibration, fine tuning and the overall performance of the systems developed will be

implemented through active interactions and discussions with FMISC,WRD and concerned

GoB Departments dealing with flood management. The consultant would be required to

submit interim reports justifying the calibration parameters used in both the models. In

addition, various scenarios will be tested and presented in an interim report to optimize flood

management and improve the performance of the system. Finally a workshop will be

arranged to share the final products with all the stakeholders.

b) Development of technical, operational, user manuals, online help, workbooks/tutorials,

training presentations and other training material. Provide 5 copies of user manuals

(software design, operation and troubleshooting tips) in hard copy and electronic form.

c) On the job training: A minimum of 6 engineers with appropriate hydrology and water

resources background will be nominated early on in the project to work with the consultancy

team throughout the development of the modeling system and to receive on-the job training.

d) The consultant will develop a training plan for improving the modeling skills in

FMISC,WRD on various aspects of hydrologic forecasting including precipitation analysis,

hydrologic model theory and operation, use of GIS & geospatial data sets and tools,

sediment transport, hydraulics, meteorology [especially Qualitative Parcipitation Forecast

(QPF)], probabilistic forecasting, remote sensing, pc computer operations & some IT,

statistics, communications, communicating information to users, end to end hydrologic

forecasting, and implementing the concept of operations.

e) At least three workshops shall have to be organized to disseminate the information with various

technical teams and stakeholder that shall be arranged by client and will be facilitated by resource

experts from consultant.

Outputs:

1. Manuals, training plan and materials;

25

2. Training of Engineers in model understanding, operation including selection and

packaging input data, continuing model validation, and maintaining model and linkages

with other information systems and databases. Training will be for a team of minimum of

6 Engineers at a time.

3. The consultant will be responsible to provide help/ support on any query from the FMIS

for Topographic and Cross-section survey and flood forecasting & warning and

inundation model after implementation during the project period and ten months beyond

Final report and models and tools after acceptance by FMISC, WRD.

4. SCHEDULE FOR COMPLETION OF TASKS

The activities described earlier and the outputs described below shall be completed within a

period of Twenty four months. An interim prototype of flood forecast model & early

warning and Inundation modeling system would have to be delivered within Ten months

after the start of study for possible operational use in the flood season prior to agreement

closure conducive for improvement in the subsequent period. The Consultant Team would

work closely with the FMIS Centre of Water Resources Department for designing and

developing the model. Validation and demonstrative runs will be conducted prior to its

transfer to FMISC,WRD. The consultancy report would describe the data, software, and

methodology used to generate and web-enable the maps in real time. The model calibration

and validation will be documented and sustainability would be ensured through training of

engineers, to be notified by the Department including the operation manual, trouble-shooting

manual etc.

Intermediate Status Report:

Intermediate Montly Progress Reports indicating the status of the assignment shall be

submitted by the consultant. The activities and findings mentioned in these reports shall be

incorporated in the next key reporting requirements.

Key reporting requirements follow:

Reports Covering Time /Month

Inception Report for Flood

Forecasting & Early Warning

and Inundation Modeling

System including

Topographic and Cross-

Topographic and Cross-section

Survey

1. Detailed methodology to be

used in conducting the survey

including technical

specification of instruments to

Before end of month 3

26

section Survey be used, Detailed work output

and critical manpower

deployment schedule, Key

plan of the area

Proforma for data collection

Flood Forecasting & Early

Warning and Inundation

Modeling

Analysis of data availability

and data quality,

Identification of various Govt.

agencies and project

clearances

Review of International

experience,

Identification of possible

models suitable to Kosi river

basin, Conceptual design of

flood monitoring system,

Methodology for the

development of model,

Identification of data inputs

for the model, Outputs

expected, Methodology for the

calibration and validation of

model, and Fortnightly

schedule of implementation

work plan.

The inception Report will

cover objectives confirming to

Task-1.

27

Mid Term Report-1 for

Topographic and Cross-

section Survey and

Design report for Flood

Forecasting & Early Warning

and Inundation Modeling

system

Topographic and Cross-section

Survey Describing the progress made

with the services and the

results achieved up to that

point with the specific

activities to be carried out

under the services and

objectives confirming to Task-

2 Flood Forecasting & Early

Warning and Inundation

Modeling 1.Detailed design of flood

modeling & early warning

and Inundation Modeling

system including inputs and

outputs, Internal and external

interfaces, Data flow

schedules for dynamic

updating of model, and Input-

output data formats objective

confirming to Task-3,4 &5.

2.Design and Plan for

additionally needed measuring

equipment/structures (gauges,

discharge and sediment),

Supervisory Control and Data

Acquisition (SCADA) and

telemetry options with their

technical specifications with

detail cost estimate and bid

documents of agreed option

for procurement objectives

confirming to Task-3.

By month 8

28

Mid Term Report-2 for

Topographic and Cross-

section Survey and

Initial Forecast model &

early warning system and

inundation mapping tool

Topographic and Cross-section

Survey Describing the progress made

with the services and the

results achieved up to that

point with the specific

activities to be carried out

under the services and

objectives confirming to Task-

2

Flood Forecasting & Early

Warning and Inundation

Modeling

Initial Forecast model & early

warning system and

inundation mapping tool

objective confirming to Task-

3,4 &5. .

By month 10

Training Plan

Forecast model & early

warning system and

inundation mapping tool

Objective confirming to Task-

6. By month11

Draft final report, including

all Topographic and Cross-

section Survey output ,

models and tools and user and

operation manuals, reporting

protocols and formats and

Acceptance Testing

Objective confirming to all

Task described in the ToR.

By month 12

Final report including all

Topographic and Cross-

section Survey output and

models and tools after

acceptance by FMISC, WRD.

Objective confirming to all

Task described in the ToR.

By month 14

Help/ Support on any query By month 24

29

The reports will be reviewed by a Standing Review Committee set up by WRD. The committee

would review and respond on the deliverable/ report within one month after submission of report by

the Consultant.

5. DATA, SERVICES AND FACILITIES TO BE PROVIDED BY THE CLIENT

The following amenities will be provided by the Client:

Office space for two staff of the consultant to work at the FMISC will be provided by the

client. The client will provide to the consultant- access to confidential data (topo sheets,

LiDAR data if available, CWC stage/discharge data, etc) in secure data handling

environment, available historic and current data on hydrometeorology, hydrology and

hydraulics; available thematic data; rainfall and flood forecast from IMD/CWC;

topographic data; embankment breach details.

Liaison officer, Water Resources Department at Kathmandu, Nepal will facilitate in

acquiring needed data from Government of Nepal.

The client already has a server (Intel Xeon 6 Core Processor -2 no, 16 GB RAM 1 TB on

server storage Windows 2008 Server). The software specification and the adequacy of

the hardware resources will have to be provided by the Consultant.

The client also has hardware infrastructure as-

The infrastructure in brief are-Two IBM * 3500 severs with 2 (6 Core Xeon processor)

16GB RAM ITB onboard storage, 1nos storage of 2TB upgradable up to 24TB (RAID

5) compliant24TB (RA105) compliant

No of concurrent user <= 100

Access to other national and central agencies for data collection

Access to other consultants working on hydrologic network, EAMS, surveys, and spatial

datasets

Access to information systems and databases available or to be developed.

Facilitate implementing improved flood forecast & early warning system and inundation

model in FMIS, WRD.

from the WRD/FMISC for

Topographic Survey & Cross-

section data and flood

forecasting & early warning

and inundation model after

implementation and

acceptance of Final report.

30

6. RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE CONSULTANT

Conduct and complete the consultancy as per the agreed TOR and scope of the

consultancy. The application shall be developed at the Client’s premises as long as the

database and other requirements are properly taken care of. The test cases must be

properly developed after study of nature of data and all exception that may occur must be

taken care of.Collect data as needed for modeling from concerned agencies. The

consultants will have to acquire real time data which is not available with FMISC,WRD

from different networks both in Nepal and Bihar if required for the Modeling work.

Conduct field visits as required for data collection or to verify model results

Undertake data conversion of source data as needed for modeling

The Project team leader would essentially be a Flood forecast/Inundation and early

warning system modeler.

One of the Key staff like Flood Forecast modeler and early warning/ Inundation Modeler

/Survey Expert will be at FMISC, WRD, Patna for at least 75 percent of the period up to

the approval of final report and models and tools by FMISC, WRD and work closely with

the working Modeling group formed by the department. At least one of the modelers

would assure his presence during the above mentioned period at Patna.

7. HANDLING RESTRICTED DATA

The Consultants, their sub-consultants, and the personnel of either of them shall not, either during

the term or even after the expiration of this contract, disclose any proprietary or confidential

information related to the Project, the services, this contact, or the Client’s business or operations

without the prior written consent of the Client. Certain data (such as topographic maps in 1:50,000

scale with heights and contour information, river discharge data for Ganga river system and DEM

with 50 cm contour interval) which may be used in development and operation of flood models may

be considered ‘restricted’ as per Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Water Resources guidelines.

Keeping in view security guidelines for data secrecy and to provide optimum functionality and to

enable sharing data with the consultants, a secure data handling environment has been proposed.

FMISC,WRD will maintain all classified/ secret data in this Secure Data Centre (SDC). The unit will

be equipped with necessary hardware and software and peripheral units, but will not be connected

with outside LAN network. CD/DVD Writer & Floppy/ Pen Drive facilities will only be available on

the main server in SDC. Entry to the confidential unit shall be appropriately screened for

authorization. Proper record of date and time of entry and exit in the confidential unit along with the

details of work done shall be recorded in logbooks. Inventory of all data in SDC shall be maintained

31

and updated. Entry to SDC will be strictly prohibited before and after office hours. For emergent

circumstances approval of competant authority will be required. Permanent passes for the consultant

staff deputed for working in SDC shall be issued by the Joint Director, FMISC,WRD.

Confidentiality and non-disclosure Agreements are to be signed by the Consultant firm, as well as

the individual Consultants deputed for working in SDC. Technical data brought by the Consultant

may be allowed to be loaded on the server after approval of the Joint Director, FMISC,WRD. A

detailed record of all the data transferred from confidential unit will be maintained in a register and

data will be transferred only after approval. No original data kept on server will be modified or

changed. Change/ modification required if any will be done only after copying the data.

8. LIST OF KEY POSITIONS

The key staffs to be provided by the consultant are shown below. However, the consultants are free

to propose their own team composition suitable for the project duration of the consultancy for

development and Model and Conducting Topographic and Cross-section Survey. The team leader

has essentially to be a Flood forecast &early warning system/ Inundation modeler.

Discipline of the Consultant Qualifications and Experience Suggested Man-Months

(A) Topographic and Cross-

section Survey

1. Co-Team Leader/ Survey

Expert

2. Surveyors

(B) Flood Forecasting & Early

Warning and Inundation

Bachelor’s Degree in Civil

Engineering, Computer proficiency

having knowledge of Auto CAD.

He/She should have at least 5 years

experience in terrain survey data

collection using modern surveying

techniques and tools with

experience in the use of GIS

technology

-Certificate course in field

surveying from reconised ITI.

- At least 3 years experience in

precision survey in flat terrain using

Modern Electronic survey

equipments like DGPS and Total

station/Auto Level

1. Relevant advanced academic

degree in Hydrology, Hydraulic and

14

Sufficient numbers to carry

out work within the

stipulated time.

32

Modeling

1.Project Team Leader / Flood

forecast and early warning

system/Inundation modeler

/ or Water Resources engineering.

2. At least 10 years working

experience in flood modeling and

early warning system / GIS use for

modeling.

3. Extensive knowledge of

hydrological and hydrodynamic

modeling tools used in flood

forecasting; should have a very

good experience with rainfall- run-

off modeling.

4. Proven experience in setting up

models for flood forecasting in large

river basin.

5. Modeling experience in Indian

river basins.

6. Experience in integrating flood

forecast with early warning system/

inundation models with others

information system/ databases.

18

Hydrologist 1. Relevant advanced academic

degree in Hydrology, Hydraulic and

/ or Water Resources engineering.

2. At least 5 years working

experience in flood modeling and

early warning system / GIS use for

modeling.

3. Extensive knowledge of

hydrological and hydrodynamic

modeling tools used in flood

forecasting; should have a very

good experience with rainfall- run-

off modeling.

4. Modeling experience in Indian

river basins.

5. Desirable: experience in

application Software Development /

design in Water resources sector.

11

33

GIS/RS Specialist 1. Preferably be M.Sc.

Geography/GeoScience with

specialization in GIS/RS for GIS/RS

Specialist.

2. 5 years experience in RS/GIS

applications for resource mapping,

preparation and integration of GIS

datasets, experience in integrating

global satellite derived data;

experience in hydrologic

application, 3D analysis and

customization and experience in

flood inundation mapping for

GIS/RS specialist

8

Database Specialist 1. Graduate in Engineering in

Computer Science/IT Database for

Data base Specialist

2. 2 years experience in data base

applications for Database specialist ;

7

SCADA Specialist 1. Prefebly be Master degree in

Electronic & Communication

Engineering/ Computer Science

with Communication

Engineering.

2. At least 5 years Working

Experience in designing, developing

and Installation of Supervisory

Acquisition System for Flood

forecast, early warning and

Inundation Modelling.

10

Support Staff -

34

9. PAYMENT SCHEDULE

10 percent on signing of contract as advance against a bank guarantee.

5 percent after submitting and acceptance of Inception report,

15 percent after submission and approval of Mid Term Report-1 and Design report,

25 percent after approval of Mid Term Report-2 and Initial Models and mapping tool,

20 percent after submission and approval of Draft Final Report and training plan,

15 percent after submission and approval of Final Report.

10 percent after 10 months of the acceptance of Final report, model and tools after

fulfillment on all queries from the FMISC/ WRD for Topographic and Cross-section survey

and flood forecasting & warning and inundation model during this period.

10. Duration of Consultancy 24 months

35

Annexure-I

36

Annexure – II

Status of Data available for modeling

Meteorological Data: India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Directorate of Statistical

Organization (DSO) of GoB maintain and operate rainfall stations. IMD reports daily rainfall every day,

while the GoB stations report daily rainfall with a delay. Due to FMIS intervention some GoB stations

have started reporting daily rainfall every day, since 2007. The GoB data quality is suspect and would

need to be validated prior to use. Hourly rainfall data is available only at IMD sites at Basua, Baltara and

Kursela but is not accessible in real-time.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in Nepal provides daily rainfall data at four stations in

the upstream basin in Nepal, posted on its website. Daily rainfall data for Okhaldhunga, Taplejung,

Dhankutta, and Dharan stations in Nepal for Kosi basins are available from year 2007 at FMISC,WRD.

Daily rainfall data for 95 stations including those of Kosi basin are available with Department of

Hydrology and Meteorology, Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology, Government of Nepal

from year 1996 to 2006 (11 years). These will be procured by FMISC,WRD.

Hydrometry data: Both the Central Water Commission (CWC) and WRD operate stream gauge sites,

with WRD operating sites only during the flood season. There are 3 gauge Baltara, Basua and Kursela

and 2 discharge sites Barah-k-shatra and D/S of Barrage in the Kosi Basin system at which historical

stage and daily discharge data would be available from CWC & GoB.

The CWC is in the process of modernization of its flood forecasting network in the country. The

modernization envisages satellite based transmission system from automatic rain gauge and bubbler type

water level sensors. In the first phase, two forecasting base stations Birpur and Basua in India portion

are proposed to be updated in the Kosi basin. The commission also plans to integrate the data collection

and transmission system with that of the state governments/Project authorities and newly established

National Disaster Management Authority.

FMISC,WRD is planning to set up a real-time telemetry network of rain gauges, stream gauges and

sediment gauge sunder the Bihar Kosi Recovery Project separately. This will be supported by

appropriate mobile equipment to update the rating curves. A Hydrological Information System (HIS) is

37

also planned to acquire, validate, archive and share all historic data and current real-time and delayed-

receipt data in the basin.

Rainfall Forecast and Estimates

IMD is currently providing 3 day forecasts at daily and six hourly intervals and at 9 km resolution,

updated daily, covering north Bihar and Nepal. Qualitative precipitation forecasts for next two days from

DHM are available over Nepal. Global forecasts and rainfall estimates from NOAA’s National Weather

Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Tropical Rainfall

Measurement Mission (TRMM) based hourly estimates could also be used. Longer-term climate

forecasts would also need to be evaluated for possible use in the model.

River Cross-sectional Survey

The cross-section data available presently at FMISC,WRD is 32 km U/S of Barrage and 125 km D/S of

Barrage.

Thematic data on basin characteristics

LISS 3 images of past seven years are also available with FMISC,WRD, for monitoring trends.

FMISC,WRD also has Cartosat satellite data (2.5 m resolution) covering the Bihar region of basin.

Global GIS data from Hydro GIS at 1 km resolution would also be useful for modeling runoff from the

Nepal portion of the basin.

Table 1 Discharge Sites currently maintained by WRD, GoB

S.No. Site River

1 Barah-kshetra Kosi

2 D/S,Birpur Barrage Kosi

Table 2 Rain Gauge Station and Gauge Sites currently maintained by CWC

S.No. Station name District River

1 Basua Supaul Kosi

2 Baltara Khagaria Kosi

3 Kursela Katihar Kosi

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Table 3 Rain Gauge Station in Nepal Portion maintained

(By Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, GON)

S.No. River Rainfall gauge Site

1

Kosi

Okhaldunga

2 Taplejung

3 Dhankutta

4 Dharan

Table-4 DSO Rain Gauge In India

S.No.

Station Name Latitude Longitude

Country/

source

1 Andhratharhi 26.35 86.33 India/DSO

2 Basopatti 26.54 86.02 India/DSO

3 Beldaur 25.59 86.79 India/DSO

4 Benipatti 26.41 85.94 India/DSO

5 Benipur 26.11 86.00 India/DSO

6 Biraul 25.95 86.25 India/DSO

7 Bisfi 26.30 85.90 India/DSO

8 Chautham 25.53 86.65 India/DSO

9 Ghanshyampur 25.98 86.26 India/DSO

10 Ghoghardiha 26.28 86.47 India/DSO

11 Gogri 25.42 86.63 India/DSO

12 Keotiranway 26.25 85.91 India/DSO

13 Khajauli 26.48 86.16 India/DSO

14 Khutauna 26.39 86.40 India/DSO

15 Kusheshwar Asthan 25.82 86.31 India/DSO

16 Ladania 26.58 86.35 India/DSO

17 Madhopur 26.19 86.35 India/DSO

18 Mahishi 25.85 86.47 India/DSO

19 Manigachhi 26.21 86.17 India/DSO

20 Nauhatta 26.00 86.49 India/DSO

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21 Nirmali 26.31 86.57 India/DSO

22 Pandaul 26.21 86.10 India/DSO

23 Phulparas 26.37 86.49 India/DSO

24 Pipra 26.16 86.80 India/DSO

25 Rajnagar 26.39 86.16 India/DSO

26 Salkhua 25.66 86.60 India/DSO

27 Saur Bazar 25.81 86.67 India/DSO

28 Simri Bakhtiarpur 25.72 86.59 India/DSO

29 Tribeniganj 26.13 86.89 India/DSO

Table-5 Network of Rain Gauge station In Nepal portion

S.No. Station Name Latitude Longitude Country/

source

1 Aisealukh 27.35 86.75 Nepal

2 Bahimlilp 27.18 86.17 Nepal

3 Bahrbise 27.78 85.9 Nepal

4 Barmajhiy 26.6 86.9 Nepal

5 Baunepati 27.78 85.57 Nepal

6 Bhimnagar 26.42 86.92 India/

Nepal Rep

7 Bhojpur 27.18 87.05 Nepal

8 Chainpur 27.28 87.33 Nepal

9 Chantara 27.78 85.72 Nepal

10 Charikt 27.67 86.05 Nepal

11 Chatara 26.82 87.17 Nepal

12 Chawrikha 27.7 86.72 Nepal

13 Chepurwa 27.77 87.42 Nepal

14 Chialsa 27.48 86.62 Nepal

15 Dalaghat 27.63 85.72 Nepal

16 Devan 27.35 87.6 Nepal

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17 Dhap 27.92 85.63 Nepal

18 Dharanbaj 26.82 87.28 Nepal

19 Diktol 27.22 86.8 Nepal

20 Dubaehaur 27.85 85.57 Nepal

21 Duigla 27.37 87.15 Nepal

22 Dulikhel 27.62 85.55 Nepal

23 Gumthang 27.87 85.87 Nepal

24 Jiri 27.63 86.23 Nepal

25 Khopari 27.58 85.52 Nepal

26 Khotang 27.03 86.83 Nepal

27 Kurule Gh 27.13 86.42 Nepal

28 Laguwagha 27.13 87.28 Nepal

29 Lahan 26.73 86.43 Nepal

30 Lakhnaur 26.22 86.33 Nepal

31 Lungthung 27.55 87.78 Nepal

32 Machuwagh 26.97 87.17 Nepal

33 Majhitar 27.16 87.71 Nepal

34 Mandan 27.7 85.65 Nepal

35 Manebhanj 27.48 86.42 Nepal

36 Manthali 27.47 86.08 Nepal

37 Melurg 27.52 86.05 Nepal

38 Memengjeg 27.2 87.93 Nepal

39 Mulghat 26.93 87.33 Nepal

40 Munga 27.03 87.23 Nepal

41 Nagarkot 27.7 85.52 Nepal

42 Nagdaha 27.68 86.1 Nepal

43 Napalthok 27.45 85.82 Nepal

44 Nawalpur 27.8 85.62 Nepal

45 Num 27.55 87.28 Nepal

46 Pachuwarghat 27.58 85.75 Nepal

47 Paharmas 27.43 86.57 Nepal

48 Pakhribas 27.05 87.28 Nepal

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49 Panchkhal 27.68 85.63 Nepal

50 Pariaha-Bandipur 26.88 86.14 Nepal

51 Phidim 27.15 87.75 Nepal

52 Rajbiraj 26.55 86.75 Nepal

53 Ralmwa Bagar 27.27 86.66 Nepal

54 Salleri 27.5 86.58 Nepal

55 Sangaehok 27.7 85.72 Nepal

56 Sarmathan 27.95 85.6 Nepal

57 Siraha 26.65 86.22 Nepal

58 Sirwa 27.55 86.38 Nepal

59 Suidhuli 27.23 85.9 Nepal

60 Taplethok 27.48 87.78 Nepal

61 Tarkeghya 28.00 85.55 Nepal

62 Thokarpa 27.70 85.78 Nepal

63 Tribeni 26.93 87.15 Nepal

64 Tumlingta 27.78 87.22 Nepal

65 Turheghat 27.33 87.19 Nepal

66 Udayapurg 26.93 86.52 Nepal