User Conference 11/14/13

Storm Impact

Scott MorrisEarth Science Associates

Long Beach, CA

2013 User ConferenceHosted by Maersk – Houston

November 14, 2013

Goals

• Predict if a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico

User Conference 11/14/13

• Predict lost production– Platform– Gulf Wide

• Update predictions using the newest data

Determining if a Hurricane Will Enter the Gulf

• Use existing data on storms since 1950– We have path segments for storms since

1922 but they are not named – We end up with 631 storm paths

• Given a storm’s current position, can we decide if it will enter the Gulf of Mexico?

User Conference 11/14/13

Path of All Named Storms

User Conference 11/14/13

Area of Interest

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Storms that Entered the Gulf

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Grid Extending to Barbados

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10 Storms Total5 entering the Gulf

Probability of Entering Gulf

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Wind Speeds

User Conference 11/14/13

Platforms Directly Affected

User Conference 11/14/13

User Conference 11/14/13

Predicting Gulf Wide Losses

• Regression analysis– Current production and wind speed should

be able to predict the loss of production caused by a hurricane

– Experimenting with different models– Production is taken from platforms in the

path of the hurricane

User Conference 11/14/13

Platforms 20 kilometers from path

User Conference 11/14/13

Preliminary Regression Results

User Conference 11/14/13

Problems and Refinement

• Multiple hurricanes occurring in the same month

– Currently treating these as a single hurricane

• Varying wind speeds not taken into account

• Platforms directly in the path are weighted the same as those 20 kilometers away

User Conference 11/14/13

Workflow

User Conference 11/14/13

Determine if current hurricane is likely to enter the Gulf

Determine platforms directly affected by Hurricane and create charts and tables

Make prediction for Gulf Wide production lost based on hurricane path

Upload findings and charts to website

Check for updated data from NOAA