Upload
marylou-tate
View
214
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Understanding Population Trends and Processes
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND
PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden (Leeds)
UPTAP Workshop 2008University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008
Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600
ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032
Project Aims
– To project the ethnic populations of local areas in the UK over the next 50 years
– To develop estimates of the inputs to the projection for the current decade
Presentation Outline
– To explain the model design being developed (Phil Rees)– State space of model– Accounting framework– Model structure– Internal migration model
– Ethnic mortality estimation (Phil Rees)
– Ethnic fertility estimation (Paul Norman)
– New Migrant Databank (Pete Boden)
Source: Dunnell, K. (2007) The changing demographic picture of the UK: National Statistician’s annual article on the population. Population Trends 130, 9-21.
STATE SPACEZones (434) (O origins, D destinations)England 354 LAsWales 22 UAsScotland 32 CAsNorthern Ireland 26 DCsAges (102 period-cohorts) (A)Bto0, 0to1, 1to2, …, 99to100, 100+to101+ (102)Sexes (2) (S)Males, FemalesEthnic Groups (18) (E)15 from 2001 Census with
“White: Other White-CEE EU”“White: Other White-Other EU”“White: Other-Other”
Time intervals (flexible) (T)1981-1991-2001-2, … , 2005-6, 2006-7, …, 2050-51
COUNTRY POPULATION ACCOUNTS FOR EACH ETHNIC GROUPStandard period-cohort (w=x to x+1)
Age x+1 Destinations (state at end of time interval) Derived totals
Age x Country England Wales Scotland Northern
IrelandRest of World
Deaths/Non-survivors Totals
Internal out-migration totals Survivors
Number 1 2 3 4 ROrigins England 1 S11 M12 M13 M14 E1 D1 SP1 TOM1 S1
(state at start Wales 2 M21 S22 M23 M24 E2 D2 SP2 TOM2 S2
of interval) Scotland 3 M31 M32 S33 M34 E3 D3 SP3 TOM3 S3
Northern Ireland 4 M41 M42 M43 S44 E4 D4 SP4 TOM4 S4
Rest of World R I1 I2 I3 I4 0 0 I*
Totals FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 E* D* T**
Internal in-migration totals TIM1 TIM2 TIM3 TIM4
To EnglandFrom Northern Ireland
White British
White Irish …
Chinese or other: other
Protestant M41p,wb M41
p,wi … M41p,co
Catholic M41c,wb M41
c,wi … M41c,co
Other M41o,wb M41
o,wi … M41o,co
Time
Survival probabilities and survivorship probabilities
Age
x
x+1
x+2
t t+1
lx
lx+1
Lx
Lx+1
sx
px
Population accounting framework for countries and local authorities
DESTINATIONS England Wales ScotlandNorthern Ireland Rest of world Deaths Totals
City of London and
Westminster … Isle of Wight
Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn …
Cardiff/Caerdydd Aberdeen City : West Lothian Derry City : Belfast Start Populations
ORIGINS Zone names Zones 1(1) … N(1) 1(2) … N(2) 1(3) … N(3) 1(4) … N(4) R DEngland City of London and Westminster 1(1) SS 1(1)1(1) … MS 1(1)N(1) MS 1(1)1(2) … MS 1(1)N(2) MS 1(1)1(3) … MS 1(1)N(3) MS 1(1)1(4) … MS 1(1)N(4) ES 1(1) D 1(1) SP 1(1)*(*)
: : : … : : ; : ; : : : :Isle of Wight N(1) MS N(1)1(1) … SS N(1)N(1) MS N(1)1(2) … MS N(1)N(2) MS N(1)1(3) … MS N(1)N(3) MS N(1)1(4) … MS N(1)N(4) ES N(1) D N(1) SP N(1)*(*)
Wales Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn 1(2) MS 1(2)1(1) … MS 1(2)N(1) SS 1(2)1(2) … MS 1(2)N(2) MS 1(2)1(3) … MS 1(2)N(3) MS 1(2)1(4) … MS 1(2)N(4) ES 1(2) D 1(2) SP 1(2)*(*)
: : : … : : … : : … : : … : : : :Cardiff/Caerdydd N(2) MS N(2)1(1) … MS N(2)N(1) MS N(2)1(2) … SS N(2)N(2) MS N(2)1(3) … MS N(2)N(3) MS N(2)1(4) … MS N(2)N(4) ES N(2) D N(2) SP N(2)*(*)
Scotland Aberdeen City 1(3) MS 1(3)1(1) … MS 1(3)N(1) MS 1(3)1(2) … MS 1(3)N(2) SS 1(3)1(3) … MS 1(3)N(3) MS 1(3)1(4) … MS 1(3)N(4) ES 1(3) D 1(3) SP 1(3)*(*)
: : : … : : … : : … : : … : : : :West Lothian N(3) MS N(3)1(1) … MS N(3)N(1) MS N(3)1(2) … MS N(3)N(2) MS N(3)1(3) … SS N(3)N(3) MS N(3)1(4) … MS N(3)N(4) ES N(3) D N(3) SP N(3)*(*)
Northern Ireland Derry City 1(4) MS 1(4)1(1) … MS 1(4)N(1) MS 1(4)1(2) … MS 1(4)N(2) MS 1(4)1(3) … MS 1(4)N(3) SS 1(4)1(4) … MS 1(4)N(4) ES 1(4) D 1(4) SP 1(4)*(*)
: : : … : : … : : … : : … : : : :Belfast N(4) MS N(4)1(1) … MS N(4)N(1) MS N(4)1(2) … MS N(4)N(2) MS N(4)1(3) … MS N(4)N(3) MS N(4)1(4) … SS N(4)N(4) ES N(4) D N(4) SP N(4)*(*)
Rest of world Immigrants R IS 1(1) … IS N(1) IS 1(2) … IS N(2) IS 1(3) … IS N(3) IS 1(4) … IS N(4) 0 0 IS *(*)
Totals Populations * FP *(*)1(1) FP *(*)N (1) FP *(*)1(2) FP *(*)N(2) FP *(*)1(3) … FP *(*)N(3) FP *(*)1(4) … FP *(*)N(4) ES * D * T *(*)*(*)
populations fertility mortality Internal migration
International migration
survival
emigration
migration conditional on
survival within UK
immigration
Mortality assumptions
Emigration assumptions
Internal migration assumptions or
model
Immigration assumptions
Projected deaths, survivors
Projected surviving emigrants
Projected surviving internal migrants
final populations
Projected surviving immigrants
Projected final populations and births
Fertility assumptions
births
Projection outputs
Initial database
scenarios
Internal migration model
Something between a rock (saturated)O432 D432 E18 S2 A102
and a hard place (independence) O432 + D432 + E18 + S2 +A102
such as
A102S2 + O432D432E7 + E18
age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity
Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method
1. LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population
2. 2001 Census SIRS for whole population
3. Compute SMR = ac + bc SIR for c=England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs
4. 2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for Las
5. 2001 ethnic SMRe = ac + bc SIRe
6. dea (1) = d*
a SMRe /100
7. dea (2) = de
a (1) × [D*a /Σe de
a (1)Pea ]
Fertility rates for the projection model: needs …
Information on past trends
• By all persons, estimate by ethnic group
A range of plausible assumptions
• Different fertility scenarios by ethnic group
Trends for all LAs in UKAll persons in Bradford & Leeds: 1982-2006
Bradford Leeds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+
AS
FR
s
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+
AS
FR
s
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
<20 20-24 25-29 30-34
35-39 40+ TFR
AS
FR
s TF
Rs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39
40+ TFR
AS
FR
s TF
Rs
Trends for all LAs in UKEstimate by ethnic group?
Child : woman ratios & apportion TFRs
• 1991 & 2001 Censuses (but different ethnic groups)
‘Own child’ method: Coleman & Salt (2003)• Labour Force Survey
TF
Rs
Past trends for all LAs in UKEstimate by ethnic group?
Age of mother at first birth
• General Household Survey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
15-19 20-24 25-29 39-34 35-39 40+
UK Eire Europe South Asia Africa-Carribean RoW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
15-19 20-24 25-29 39-34 35-39 40+
UK Eire Europe South Asia Africa-Carribean RoW
% b
irths
by
age-
grou
p
% b
irths
by
age-
grou
p
1981 2001
Further evidence?
• Longitudinal Study for England & Wales / Scotland
International Migration
Context: Complexity
97.2m I nternational
arrivals
12m non-EEA
Visitors/in-transit
8.5m
Visitor switchers
Students294K
British68.2m
Dependents13k
Asylum cases
Rejected
Accepted
Work Permits>12mth: 42K<12mth: 40K
Migrant switchers
I llegalmigrants
Dependents42K
Refused
Other EEA
17.0m
Returning2.8m
Spouse orFiancé(e)
35k
Others given leave to
enter300k
Au Pairs6k
97.2m I nternational
arrivals
12m non-EEA
Visitors/in-transit
8.5m
Visitor switchers
Students294K
British68.2m
Dependents13k
Asylum cases
Rejected
Accepted
Work Permits>12mth: 42K<12mth: 40K
Migrant switchers
I llegalmigrants
Dependents42K
Refused
Other EEA
17.0m
Returning2.8m
Spouse orFiancé(e)
35k
Others given leave to
enter300k
Au Pairs6k
Context: Uncertainty
Visitors
Long-term migrants
3 months 12 months
Fre
qu
en
cy
Intended or Reported Length of Stay
Short-term
migrants
Context: Conceptual differences
Context: Alternative sources
Context: ONS developments
• Improving Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) project
• NSQR of international migration
– improving both the estimation of total migration flows to and from the UK,
– improving the allocation of international migration to local areas.
• Short-term migration estimates
• Evaluation of alternative administrative sources
This Research Project: Objectives
• International Migration estimates for the new Ethnic Population projection model
• New Migrant Databank (NMD)
– alternative sources– local authority level– available, accessible data– integrated view– improved estimation (level & distribution)
This Research Project: Data Sources
• Census
• Total International Migration (TIM)• International Passenger Survey (IPS)
• National Insurance Number (NINo) statistics• Workers Registration Scheme (WRS)• GP Registrations (Flag 4)• Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)• National Pupil Database (NPD)
• Labour Force Survey (LFS)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
NIN
o R
eg
istr
atio
ns
(00
0)
Accession Other Europe Old Commonwealth
New Commonwealth Other
This Research Project: Progress
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Re
gis
tra
tion
s (0
00
)
NINo Regs of non-UK Nationals
GP registrations -Flag 4
SNPP 2004 -Immigration
SNPP 2004 -Emigration
MYE Immigration
MYE Emigration
CensusImmigration
HESA
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Re
gis
tra
tion
s (0
00
)
SNPP 2004 -Immigration
SNPP 2004 -Emigration
MYE Immigration
MYE Emigration
CensusImmigration
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Re
gis
tra
tion
s (0
00
)
CensusImmigration
Leeds
We have been working on/will work on:
• Model design/program writing
• Initial database/completion and harmonisation
• Ethnic mortality/full implementation
• New migrant database/integration and synthesis
• Ethnic fertility/use of GHS and LS
Work programme
End