Population Trends and Development

John Bongaarts

Population Council

Outline

• Background: population and fertility trends

• Consequences of demographic trends • Policy options

1900 1950 2000 2050 21000

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

Population estimates and projections to 2100

World (+3.9 billion)

Asia (+0.5 billion)Africa (+3.2 billion)

Europe, L. and N. America

Source: United Nations 2013

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

L.America

N.America

-1000000 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000

Projected increase in population 2010-2100

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 21100

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

World population projection variants

High variant

Medium

Low

Population growth rates 2005-2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Bir

ths p

er

wo

man

Fertility trends

Source: United Nations 2009

L.America Africa

Asia

N.America

Europe

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Population growth by fertility level

Births per woman

Gro

wth

ra

te (

%)

1.High fertility/growth

2. Intermediate fertility/growth

3. Low fertility/growth

Group 1

Demographic consequences of high fertility

• Rapid population growth

• Young age structure

Ethiop

ia

Ghana

Kenya M

ali

Nigeria

Tanza

nia

Ugand

a

SS Afri

ca

Pakist

an0

20

40

60

80

100

Population by age (<25,>25)%

of

po

pu

lati

on

Age

>25

<25

1950 1975 2000 2025 20500

2

4

6

8

10

12Youth (15-25) by country

Ra

tio

(1

95

0=

1)

Nigeria

Pakistan

India

China

Group1: Consequences of High fertility and rapid population growth

• Governmental: Lagging investment in education, health services and infrastructure

• Economic: Low wages, unemployment, poverty

• Environmental: Depletion of natural resources, pollution

• Political: Rising political unrest and crime

• Health: High maternal and child mortality

Group 2: Intermediate/ declining fertility

• Declining population growth rates

• Fewer young people, more workers

• Demographic dividend

Population by age: Mexico

Demographic Dividend:

Boosts growth in GDP/cap by raising

1) Relative size of workforce

2) Women’s participation in paid labor force

3) Investments in human and physical capital

1950 1975 2000 2025 205030

40

50

60

70

Working age population (%)%

of

po

pu

lati

on

Developed world

Demographic Dividend

Developing world

1950 1975 2000 2025 205040

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Working age population (%)

East Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

HighMediumLow

Group 2: Consequences of Intermediate/declining fertility

• Governmental: Large investments in education, health services and infrastructure

• Economic: Demographic dividend

• Environmental: Depletion of natural resources, air, water and soil pollution

• Political: Inequality and disaffected voters

• Health: Declining maternal and child mortality

Group 3: Low fertility

• Near zero or negative population growth rates

• Rapid population aging

Population by age: Italy

1975 2000 2025 20500

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Retirees/Worker

Italy

Spain

Germany

Japan

France

Canada

UK

China

USA

1975 2000 2025 2050-1.66533453693773...

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Pop 65+/Pop 20-64

Japan

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

UK

USA

Ratio

Group 3: Consequences of low fertility

• Economic

Unsustainable health and pension costs

Rising governmental budget deficits

• Political Rising voting power of the elderly

Slower economic growth Slower growth in GDP/capSlower growth in worker productivity (?)

• Governmental

• Environmental High GHG emissions and consumption of natural resources

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Impact of demographic dividend on economic growth rate (GDP/cap)

-

% G

row

th r

ate

GD

P/c

ap

+

Developing world

Developed world

A. High fertility countries

B. Very low fertility countries

Policy options :

• Family planning programs to reduce unplanned

pregnancies

• Investments in human capital (e.g. girls

education)

A. Policy options in high fertility countries:

0

50

100

150

200

All pregnancies

Nu

mb

er o

f p

reg

na

nci

es (

mill

)Many unplanned pregnancies in the

developing world

Source: Vlassof et al 2004

Unplanned Abortion

Unplanned birth

Planned

Planningstatus Outcome

Plannedbirth

P

Indonesia

Jordan

Bangladesh

Uganda

Rwanda

0 2 4 6

Fertility impact of family planning programs

Births per woman

Weak program High quality program

Trends in international assistance for population activities

?

Recent return of interest in Population and FP

1) Population of Sub-Saharan Africa expected to double by 2040 despite AIDS epidemic

2) Environmental concerns return: global warming, spikes in food and energy prices

3) Economists (re)discover the demographic dividend

4) Concern about political and socio-economic consequences of large number of unemployed youth

B. Policy options in aging societies

Demographic optionsEncourage childbearing; permit more immigration.

Pension system options Reduce benefits; raise contributions; raise age at

eligibility; encourage private savings.

Labor force optionsEncourage higher labor force participation

and later age at retirement.

0

1

2

3

Fertility and ideal family size for European countries

Ideal family size

Actual fertility

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 21100

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

5000000

Small fertility changes have large fu-ture population impact

+0.5 birth

-0.5 birth

Medium

0.86 billion in 2010

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Conclusions

• Very high and very low fertility have net adverse effects

• Declining high fertility brings multiple benefits for human welfare and the environment

• Policies are available to maximize positive effects and minimize negative effects

• World is moving from demographic dividend to demographic burden