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TUES, OCT 10 TOURISM VISIONING & SCENARIO PLANNING

EVENT

WED, OCT 11 TOURISM PLANNING

WORKSHOP

TUES, NOV 14 CULTURAL HERITAGE & AGRITOURISM

WORKSHOP

TUES, NOV 14 CULTURAL HERITAGE & RECREATION

NETWORKING EVENT

WED, NOV 15 ADVENTURE TRAVEL & OUTDOOR RECREATION

WORKSHOP

TUES, DEC 5 TOURISM MARKETING & COMMUNICATIONS

WORKSHOP

WED, DEC 6 TEAMING FOR ACTION

WORKSHOP

WED, DEC 6 COMMUNITY TOURISM CELEBRATION

EVENT

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Committed Groups

Playing the Futures Game

Future Game for the Pacific Northwest, USA

Futures Game – Simulation tool

10

11

ROLES• CEO of Eco Development Corporation

• Executive Director – Destination Marketing

Organization

• 1 x elected official from St Joseph

• 1 x elected official from Quail Valley

• BLM representative

Steps in playing the game

• Forward from 2010 to 2030

• Four game steps (2010, 2012, 2015, 2020, then 2030)

• At each step you will…..– Get map, decision sheet and big event card

– Discuss and debate decision (about 8-10 minutes)

– Choose 1 of the 2 options

– Record on decision sheet

– Hand in decision sheet – receive next one

Into the

future…

Background to Game

16

17

Key forces/drivers shaping the future of the region

• Population Growth and Pressure (Demographic Trends/Flight from Coastal Areas)

• Energy Cost/Availability

• Resource Management – water, timber, preservation/utilization

• Land Use Planning

• Economic Gaps/Disparity

• Educational Inequality

• Lack of skilled workers

• Telecommunication/Technology Education – e-commerce

• Public Lands Policy

• Infrastructure

• Embracing our youth

• Food Production Systems

• Global Economic Trends

• Emergence of Regional Community

• Reinvesting in Local Communities

• Connectivity

• Civic Engagement

• Child Poverty

• Climate Change

• Sustaining Sense of Place

Summary deliberations – Northern Idaho

Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers

19

Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers

Stewarding the Place• Food production systems

• Land use planning

• Preservation and utilization of resources (timber /water)

• Infrastructure (housing / sewer / roads)

• Public Lands Policy

Investing in people • Civic engagement and leadership transition

• Educational inequalities

• Reinvestment in communities

• Child poverty

• Embracing our youth

• Emergence of regional community

• Economic gap /disparity

Regional Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers – Northern Idaho

21

23

24

25

26

27

28

Debrief discussion

• Lesson from the game for

Klamath Basin

Evaluations

Drivers to action – making it

simple!

Transition from complexity to participation

• Lack of product

• Lack of facilities like hotels, lack of

restaurants, tour companies

• Lack of transportation services

• Provide more product – recreation,

food, arts, heritage

• Encourage longer stays

• Develop unified brand and tourism

messaging

What is

Scenario

Planning?

A tool best used to

embrace an uncertain

future

Explores a range of

plausible futures

Allows for the

consideration of

complex and

interrelated forces

Explore Trends and Implications for tourism

industry

‘Drivers’ Shaping Klamath Basin’

Develop four

plausible scenarios

Implications for the

Klamath Basin

Preferred Future and

action planning

Importance / Uncertainty matrix

Rate each driver on a 1 – 5 scale

(1=low; 5=high)

Driver Importance Uncertainty

Local economic development efforts

Energy and fuel costs

Cost of living

Suitably trained local workforce

Regional population changes

Aging population

Regional collaboration and engagement

Local access to services such as healthcare

Quality of life in region

Regional transport infrastructure

Government regulation and

funding

Impacts of climate change and natural disasters

Management of natural resources and biodiversity

Land use planning

Lodging developments

Access to information and communication

technology

Regional recreation infrastructure

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

Un

ce

rta

inty

Importance

RTS Klamath Basin - Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers

Ability to leverage our human capacity• Regional collaboration and engagement

• Local economic development efforts

• Quality of life in the region

• Suitably trained local workforce

Regional tourism and economic infrastructure• Lodging Developments

• Regional recreation infrastructure

• Access to information and communication technology

• Regional transport infrastructure

Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters

Scenario BScenario A

Scenario D Scenario C

Regional tourism and economic infrastructure

Ab

ilit

y t

o leve

rag

e

h

um

an

cap

acit

y

Lack of critical

infrastructures

to support

viable tourism

industry

Fragmented and disjointed

efforts with conflicting priorities.

Well resourced

local tourism

and economic

infrastructures

Effective planning. collaboration

and actions that are anchored in

local values, aspirations and skills.

Scenario name and brief description_______________

Social Characteristics

Economic Characteristics

Environmental Characteristics

Scenario Group _______

Headline news for the following years…

2020

2025

2030

Regional

dimensions to

consider

(What will

tourism in

Klamath Basin

look like in

2030?)

Suggested Scenario Group timeline

• Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)

• Develop characteristics (30m)

• Headline News and (10m)

• Short scenario name (5m)

• Return to main room ready to present

Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters

Scenario BScenario A

Scenario D Scenario C

Regional tourism and economic infrastructure

Ab

ilit

y t

o leve

rag

e

h

um

an

cap

acit

y

Lack of critical

infrastructures

to support

viable tourism

industry

Fragmented and disjointed

efforts with conflicting priorities.

Well resourced

local tourism

and economic

infrastructures

Effective planning. collaboration

and actions that are anchored in

local values, aspirations and skills.

Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters

XXXX

XX XX

Regional tourism and economic infrastructure

Ab

ilit

y t

o leve

rag

e

h

um

an

cap

acit

y

Lack of critical

infrastructures

to support

viable tourism

industry

Fragmented and

disjointed efforts with

conflicting priorities.

Well resourced

local tourism

and economic

infrastructures

Effective planning. collaboration

and actions that are anchored in

local values, aspirations and skills.

Scenario A

Scenario D

Scenario B

Scenario C

KLAMATH BASIN RURAL TOURISM STUDIO

InstructionsOn the grid at the left, please use the following point assignments to rate the preferred and expected futures.

EXPECTED FUTURE Please assign to the grid a E1 in the cell you view as the mostly likely expected future, if nothing changes.

PREFERRED FUTURE Please assign to the grid a P1 in the cell that represents your most preferred future in 2030.

Regional tourism and economic infrastructureA

bil

ity t

o levera

ge

h

um

an

cap

acit

y

Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters

XXXX

XX XX

Regional tourism and economic infrastructure

Ab

ilit

y t

o leve

rag

e

h

um

an

cap

acit

y

Lack of

critical

infrastructur

es to support

viable

tourism

industry

Fragmented and

disjointed efforts with

conflicting priorities.

Well resourced

local tourism

and economic

infrastructures

Effective planning. collaboration

and actions that are anchored in

local values, aspirations and skills.

XX

XX

XX

XX

XXXX

XXXX

Scenario A – XXXX

Community / social

• xx

Environmental

• Xx

Economy

• XX

Scenario B – XXXX

Community / social

• xx

Environmental

• Xx

Economy

• XX

Scenario C – XXXX

Community / social

• xx

Environmental

• Xx

Economy

• XX

Scenario D – XXXX

Community / social

• xx

Environmental

• Xx

Economy

• XX