Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and
modelling dataVictor Shatalov and Oleg Travnikov,
MSC-E
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Approach to the trend analysis
Measurements of B[a]P air concentrations at CZ3
Decomposition of time series: (modelling and measurement results)
Main trend parameter: total reduction
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ng/m
3
Time series
Trend (deleting “random” component)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ng/m
3
Time series
Main component (deleting seasonal component)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ng/m
3
Time seriesTime series
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Monitoring: data for trend analysisLong-term data on POPs in air and precipitation at EMEP
sites (PCBs, HCB and PAHs)
Site (code)
Zeppelin (NO42)
Birkenes (NO02/99)
Pallas (FI36)
Storhofdi (IS91)
Aspvreten (SE12)
Råö/Rörvik (SE02/14)
Kosetice (CZ03)
Westerland (DE01)
Zingst (DE09)Region covered by long-term
measurement data
No data on PCDD/Fs under EMEP
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Air concentrations of PCBs: declining trends at almost all sites
Monitoring (CCC)
Air concentrations of B[a]P: no clear time-trend at any station
B[a]P in precipitation: small declining trends at few sites
HCB, air: decreasing trend at NO42 in 1990s and increasing trend during the last decade
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CZ3 FI96 IS91 NO42 SE12 SE2/14
Observed Modelled
Total reduction of PCB-153 calculated by trend analysis of
measurement and modelling data
Comparison of observed and modelled air concentrations at
particular locationsSE12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
pg/m
3
Observed Modelled
CZ3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
pg/m
3
Observed Modelled
Better agreement in second part of the period
Combined measurement/modelling trend analysis (PCBs)
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Modelling data
Long-term trends: EMEP domain (B[a]P)
Emissions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
ton
ne
s/ye
ar
Value Trend
Total reduction 36%Growth from 2005 to 2012 1%
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
ng/m
3
Value Trend
Total reduction 28%Growth 2005 - 2012 7%
Air concentrations
Statistically significant increase at 95% confidence level from 2005 to 2012 (7%)
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Example: Germany
Air concentrations (modelling) Emissions (official data)
Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P)
Trend analysis of measurements at German sites
DE1
0
2
4
6
8
19
96
19
97
19
981
999
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
042
005
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
092
010
20
11
20
12
ng
/l
Total reduction 56%Growth from 2005 to 2012 29% DE9
0
2
4
6
8
19
961
997
19
981
999
20
002
001
20
022
003
20
042
005
20
062
007
20
082
009
20
102
011
20
12
ng
/lTotal reduction 57%Growth from 2005 to 2012 22%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Air
con
cen
tra
tion
s, n
g/m
3
Value Trend
Total reduction 68%Growth from 2005 to 2012 22%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Em
issi
on
s, t
/y
Value Trend
Total reduction 77%Growth from 2005 to 2012 31%
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Countries with statistically significant increase of B[a]P air concentrations
from 2005 to 2012
Increase of emissions
(2005-2012)
Croatia 38%
Germany 37%
Spain 32%
Finland 29%
Portugal 28%
Hungary 25%
Estonia 19%
Bulgaria 18%
Poland 14%
Italy 11%
Lithuania 10%
Slovenia 6%
United Kingdom 5%
Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P)
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Total reduction of POP air concentrations in the EMEP domain from 1990 to 2012
Modelling data Monitoring data
Long-term trends: EMEP domain
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
B[a]P PCDD/Fs PCB-153 HCB
B[a]P - no clear trend
PCDD/Fs - EMEP: no data; National: decline
PCBs - declining trends
HCB - increasing trend during the last decade (NO42, AMAP, IADN)
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
59 sites45 sites
Long-term measurements of heavy metals (1990-2013)
Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP
8 sites16 sites
Pb in precipitationPb in air
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Selected sites
Pb, Cd
Hg
- in air - in precip. - co-located
0
10
20
30
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Air
con
cen
tra
tion
s, n
g/m3
Measured and modelled Pb air concentration
Zingst (DE9), Germany
Historical trends of heavy metal pollution
Joint analysis of measurements and modelling (1990-2012)
MeasurementsModelling
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Wet dep.
Mea
sure
men
ts
Mod
elling
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mea
sure
men
ts
Mod
elling
To
tal r
ed
uct
ion
, %
Air conc.
Lead
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mea
sure
men
ts
Mod
elling
Mea
sure
men
ts
Mod
elling
To
tal r
ed
uct
ion
, %
Air conc. Wet dep.
Mercury
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mea
sure
men
ts
Mod
elling
Mea
sure
men
ts
Mod
elling
To
tal r
ed
uct
ion
, %
Air conc. Wet dep.
Cadmium
Trends: Joint analysis at monitoring sites
Total reduction of heavy metal levels (1990-2012)
- Measurements
- Modelling0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Air
conc
entr
atio
ns,
ng/m
3 Schmücke (DE 8), GermanyCd air concentration
0
20
40
60
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Wet
dep
ositi
on,
g/km
2 /y
De Zilk (NL91), NetherlandsHg wet deposition
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Pb wet deposition (2012)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Me
an
dep
osi
tion
, g
/m2 /m
on
th
Mercury
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Me
an
dep
osi
tion
, g
/m2 /m
on
th
Cadmium
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Me
an
dep
osi
tion
, kg
/m2 /m
on
th
Lead
Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain
Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition (1990-2012)
Total reduction: 23%
Total reduction: 53%
Total reduction: 78%
Pb Cd Hg
Monitoring sites
80 55-65
10-30
Total reduction (%)
EMEP domain 78 53 23
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Trends: Changes in individual countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Mea
n de
posi
tion,
g/k
m2/m
onth
France
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Mea
n de
posi
tion,
g/k
m2 /
mon
th
Armenia
Country mean deposition of Cd (1990-2012)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pb Cd Hg
Tot
al r
edc
utio
n, %
EU28EECCA
Reduction of heavy metal deposition (1990-
2012)
Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Summary
• Pollution levels of Pb, Cd and Hg in the EMEP region reduced by 80%, 55% and 25% during 1990-2012
• Substantial decrease for the same period was estimated for PCBs and HCB (80-90%), PCDDF (50%), whereas for PAHs it was insignificant (below 30%)
• Maximum reduction of HMs and POPs pollution took place in early 1990-s, in the second half of the period the reduction slowed or even changed to growth (PAHs and HCB)
• Decline of HM and POP levels in EECCA countries is generally smaller than that in EU
• Main factors controlling long-term changes of HM and POP pollution are anthropogenic and secondary emissions and intercontinental transport of long-living species (Hg, HCB, PCBs, PCDDFs)
Information on long-term trends of HMs and POPs have been
prepared for the CLRTAP Assessment 2016 and discussed at TFMM
(Krakow, May 2015) and Expert Group meeting (Moscow, August
2015)
