Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP Oleg Travnikov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015

Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP

Oleg Travnikov on behalf of MSC-E and

CCC


• Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP (1.1.1-1.1.3)

• Operational modelling of HM transboundary pollution within EMEP region (1.3.2b)

• Assessment of long-term changes of HM transboundary pollution (1990-2012) (1.1.4, 1.3.2b)

• Country-scale pollution assessment – Case studies (1.3.5)

• Research & development:

Transition of the modelling system to the new EMEP grid (1.3.4)

Study of Hg interaction with atmospheric aerosol (1.3.8c)

Update of wind re-suspension scheme for heavy metals (1.3.8c)

• Scientific co-operation with subsidiary bodies, international organizations and programmes (1.6.2, 1.6.3, 1.1.7)

EMEP activities on heavy metals in 2015


• Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP (1.1.1-1.1.3)

• Operational modelling of HM transboundary pollution within EMEP region (1.3.2b)

• Assessment of long-term changes of HM transboundary pollution (1990-2012) (1.1.4, 1.3.2b)

• Country-scale pollution assessment – Case studies (1.3.5)

• Research & development:

Transition of the modelling system to the new EMEP grid (1.3.4)

Study of Hg interaction with atmospheric aerosol (1.3.8c)

Update of wind re-suspension scheme for heavy metals (1.3.8c)

• Scientific co-operation with subsidiary bodies, international organizations and programmes (1.6.2, 1.6.3, 1.1.7)

EMEP activities on heavy metals in 2015


Country-scale pollution assessmentCase studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries

Approach:

Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data

Benefits:

• Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS)

• Additional measurements from national monitoring networks

• Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results

Countries involved:

Country Czech Rep

Croatia Netherlands

Belarus Poland

Status complete complete

complete in progress

planed

Croatia

Netherlands

Czech Republic

Co-operation with TFMMItems 1.3.5, 1.1.9

Belarus


Pb emissions in Belarus in 2010

Heavy metal pollution in BelarusCo-operation with TFMMItems 1.3.5, 1.1.9

Emissions data (lead):• Gridded emissions - 10×10 km2

• Source categories• Large-point sources

Monitoring data:• National background (1 site) • National urban (19 sites)• EMEP sites (1 site)• Urban background (AirBase, 5

sites )

Compilation of country-scale input information

Geophysical information:• Meteorological data • Land cover• Heavy metal concentration in

soil

- National background site

- National urban sites

- EMEP site

- Urban background sites (AirBase)

Location of measurement sites

Berezinskyreserve

PL5 (EMEP)


Heavy metal pollution in BelarusSimulations of Pb levels on regional and country scales


Pb air concentration within EMEP (2012)

(50×50 km2)

Pb concentration in BelarusPL5

Berezinskyreserve

(10×10 km2)

0.1 1 10 50

0.1

1

10

50

Mo

de

l, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

Evaluation vs. EMEP observations

Bias = -4.1%Rcorr = 0.8F2 = 71%



Pb concentration in BelarusPL5

Berezinskyreserve

(10×10 km2)

1 10

1

10

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

PL5

Berezinskyreserve

Model evaluation vs. domestic observations

Simulations of Pb levels on regional and country scales


MeasurementsModelling


Analysis of model and observations data at Berezinsky reserve

Daily air concentration of Pb at Berezinsky reserve (2012)

0

2

4

6

8

1-Ja

n

31-J

an

1-M

ar

31-M

ar

30-A

pr

30-M

ay

29-J

un

29-J

ul

28-A

ug

27-S

ep

27-O

ct

26-N

ov

26-D

ec

Air

con

cen

tra

tion

, n

g/m

3 Berezinsky reserve

27-29 Apr 201204-08 Mar 2012

Elevated observed levels at Berezinsky reserve could be

affected by unaccounted emissions in neighboring countries



Heavy metal pollution in BelarusAnalysis of model and observations data at urban sites

Pb concentration in Belarus (2012)

0.5 1 2 10 1000.5

1

2

10

100

Mo

de

l, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

Model vs. observations at urban

sites (Belarus)



Heavy metal pollution in BelarusAnalysis of model and observations data at urban sites

Urban observations of Pb in European countries

(AirBase)

-20

0

20

40

60

Belar

us

Poland

Czech

Rep

.

Germ

any

Spain

Pb

air

conc

entr

atio

ns,

ng/m

3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Belar

us

Poland

Czech

Rep

.

Germ

any

Spain

Mea

n em

issi

on f

lux,

kg/

km2/y

Mean emission flux of Pb in European countries Location of urban sites

Base map: Pb emissions flux (2012)

National emission data for Belarus can still contain significant uncertainties. Co-operation with TFEIP is

encouraged


Case studies: Next stepsCo-operation with TFMMItems 1.3.5, 1.1.9

• Continue analysis of Pb pollution levels in Belarus involving the inverse modelling and construction of emission scenarios

• Extend the scope of the analysis including information and experts from neighboring countries (e.g. Poland, the Russian Federation, Ukraine)

• Finalize the study preparing country-specific information for Belarus with fine spatial resolution

• Initiate a pilot study on heavy metal pollution for PolandCase study for Belarus can serve as a test approach of

pollution assessment in other EECCA countries


EMEP/MSC-E performs general coordination of the study and leads Hg model assessment on a global scale

Objectives:

• Multi-model study of Hg emissions and atmospheric processes

• Evaluation of model performance against global measurement data

• Assessment of Hg intercontinental transport and future scenarios

Participating models:

Model Institution

GLEMOS EMEP

ECHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy)

CMAQ-Hg HZG (Germany)

WRF-Chem CNR-IIA (Italy)

GEOS-Chem MIT (USA)

GEM-MACH-Hg

Environment Canada

p-TOMCAT Cambridge (UK)

Multi-model assessment of HgItems 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.6.2, 1.6.3 Scientific co-operation

Hg processes in the atmosphere

Co-operation with EU GMOS and TF HTAP project


Multi-model assessment of Hg

Monitoring networks for Hg:

• EMEP (Europe)

• NADP/MDN (USA/Canada)

• AMNet (USA)

• NAtChem (Canada)

• GMOS (global)

GMOS partners:

Measurement data used for the analysis (2013)

Scientific co-operationItems 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.6.2, 1.6.3

More close co-operation between EMEP and other monitoring programs is required to get access to measurement data

Location of monitoring sitesEMEP

GEM/TGM in air (31 sites)

Wet deposition (135 sites)

GEM, GOM, PBM in air (25 sites)



GLEMOS GEOS-Chem

GEM-MACH-Hg ECHMERIT

Simulations of Hg air concentration (2013)

Scientific co-operationItems 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.6.2, 1.6.3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

Model ensemble Ensemble vs. observations

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Mod

el, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3


Industrial sources

Hg deposition from different emission sectors (2013)

Stationary combustion


Intentional use and product waste

Speciation of global Hg emissions

0 300 600 900

Intentional use & product waste

Industrial sources

Stationary combustion

Hg emission, t/y

Hg0

HgIIgas

HgIIpart

Scientific co-operationItems 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.3.8c, 1.6.2


Future changes of mercury pollutionModel evaluation of future emission scenarios (2035)

Hg emission scenarios for 2035:

• ‘Current Policy’ scenario (CP 2035)Governmental policies and measures existing in 2010 have been adopted, including those that have not been fully implemented

• ‘New Policy’ scenario (NP 2035) Policy commitments announced by countries worldwide to reduce GHG emissions and phase out fossil-energy subsidies have been fully implemented

• ‘Maximum Feasible Reduction’ scenario (MFR 2035)Maximum possible Hg emission reductions that could be achieved if no other constraints have been taken into account

Anthropogenic Hg emissions in 2010 and

2035

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

To

tal e

mis

sio

n,

kt



Model evaluation of future emission scenarios (2035)

Future changes of mercury pollution

0

1

2

3

4

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

epo

sitio

n,

g/k

m2/y

North America

0

2

4

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

epo

sitio

n,

g/k

m2/y

South America

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

epo

sitio

n,

g/k

m2/y

Europe

0

2

4

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

epo

sitio

n,

g/k

m2/y

Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

epo

sitio

n,

g/k

m2/y

South Asia

0

5

10

15

2010 CP2035

NP2035

MFR2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

epo

sitio

n,

g/k

m2/y

East Asia



International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP 2015)Presentation of multi-model study of mercury

atmospheric processes and intercontinental transport

UNEP and Minamata ConventionUpdate of the UNEP Global Mercury

Assessment 2013 with new model results based on updated emissions inventory

Co-operation with international bodiesItems 1.1.7, 1.3.6

Final GMOS Plenary Meeting (Brussels, 17-18 Sep, 2015)

Overview of GMOS activities on mercury model assessment on a global scale


Workplan elements on HMs for 2016-2017

Assessment of heavy metal pollution:

Operational monitoring and modelling as well as trend analysis of HM pollution levels within EMEP (1.1.1.2, 1.1.1.10, 1.1.4, 1.3.1)

Country-scale assessment within the Case studies (Belarus, Poland) in co-operation with TFMM and national experts (1.2.4, 1.2.6)

Evaluation of HM background levels in selected cities of the EMEP domain (1.1.1.4)

Assessment of intercontinental transport and contribution of secondary sources to HMs pollution in the EMEP domain (1.3.4, 1.1.4.1)

Research and development:

Transition of heavy metal operational modelling to the new EMEP grid (1.1.1.7, 1.3.3)

Development of multi-media modelling of Hg to assess contribution of secondary and legacy sources (1.1.1.7, 1.1.1.26c)

Scientific co-operation with subsidiary and international bodies on HM pollution (TFMM, TF HTAP, UNEP, AMAP, HELCOM etc.) (1.1.4.1, 1.3.5-1.3.7, 1.1.6, 1.1.8)


Topics for discussion

Pollution assessment in EECCA countries

How to fill the gaps in emissions and monitoring? How to facilitate collection and evaluation of national data?

Dynamic modelling of heavy metal cycling and accumulation in environmental media

How to organize co-operation between EMEP and WGE?

Heavy metals of the second priority (As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Se, Zn)

Should we intensify activities on heavy metals of the second priority within EMEP?

Documents

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP Oleg Travnikov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC