Upload
nestor-kirkby
View
220
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented topresented to
SE Florida FSUTMS Users GroupSE Florida FSUTMS Users Group
bybyFDOT D4 PL&EMFDOT D4 PL&EM
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 8, 2009May 8, 2009
Southeast Florida Roadway & Transit User Cost Calculators
2
Agenda
Introduction
Travel Time Values
Vehicle Operating Costs
Transit Operating Costs
Calculator
Application Examples
Discussion
3
Purpose
Better assessment of transportation improvement benefits
• Systemwide− LRTP
• Corridor alternative comparison− Benefit/Cost Analysis
• Operational improvements− Cost of lane closures
− Value of early completion
The Calculator
Provides unit costs for various segmentations
Provides price escalation trends for future costs
Output FL and SE FL values
Allows for overwriting default inputs
Up to users to decide how to use it
4
Components
Travel Time Value (TTV)
• Auto; Truck
Transit User TTV− Bus; Tri-Rail; Metrorail
Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC)
• Auto; Truck
Transit Operating Cost
• Bus; Commuter Rail; Light Rail; Demand Response
5
7
MethodologyTTV Market Segmentations
Segmentation TypeSegmentation Type Segmentation DetailsSegmentation Details
ModeMode Auto, Transit: Access and In/Out-VehicleAuto, Transit: Access and In/Out-Vehicle
OccupationalOccupational Commercial Vehicle DriversCommercial Vehicle Drivers
Purpose of TravelPurpose of Travel Personal/Visitor, Commute, Business (On-the-Clock)Personal/Visitor, Commute, Business (On-the-Clock)
Time of DayTime of Day Peak, Off-PeakPeak, Off-Peak
8
1: Travel Time Values
Based on hourly wage
• Personal trips 50%
• Commute trips 60%
• On-the-clock trips 100%
Base Figures in 2004$
9
Travel Time Value Validation Survey
Telephone survey, stated preference
5,000 random households
Miami-Dade to Indian River
Dec ’04 - Jan ’05
1,070 successful responses
Work trips: $10 - $13/hr
Non-work: 40% of wage
Transit User Travel Time Value
Trip purpose segmentation
• Personal travel/Visitor
• Commute
• On-the-clock
Time-of-Day segmentation
• Peak; off-peak
Based on transit on-board surveys
• 1999 SEFL Travel Characteristics Survey
• 2007 Tri-Rail On-Board Survey
• 2004 Metro-Rail On-Board Survey
• 2004 Metrobus On-Board Survey
10
11
Wage Projection
Annual Average Wage vs Year
y = 12.616x2 - 49273.473x + 48113252.192
R2 = 0.998
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Historical Average Wage
Fitted Wage Line
Wage Data is available from 1951 to 2006.
Regression Analysis indicates strong fit (R-square = 0.998).
According to Social Security Online (www.ssa.org), national median wage is about 70% of national average wage.
Future year TTVs are calculated based on projected median wages.
12
Travel Time Values (2004)
Commuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVsCommuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVs
Florida Florida MedianMedian
SoutheastSoutheastFloridaFlorida
% of % of Wage RateWage Rate
Hourly median wage (2000) $9.96/Hr $10.56/Hr
Personal (local) $5.52/Hr $5.86/Hr 50%
Personal (visitor) $6.00/Hr $6.00/Hr 50%
Commuter $6.63/Hr $7.03/Hr 60%
On-the-clock $11.39/Hr $12.08/Hr 100%
Annual median wages from 2000 census: SEFL = $21,975; FL = $20,721Median income is about 70% of average income.
13
Commercial Vehicle Travel Time Values (2004)
On-the-Clock TTVsOn-the-Clock TTVsFlorida Florida MedianMedian
SoutheastSoutheastFloridaFlorida
Hourly median wage (2000) $9.96/Hr $10.56/Hr
Hourly median wage (2004) $11.39/Hr $12.08/Hr Annual median wages from 2000 census: SEFL = $21,975; FL = $20,721Median income is about 70% of average income.
14
Transit User Travel Time Values (2004)
Commuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVsCommuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVs
Florida Florida MedianMedian
SoutheastSoutheastFloridaFlorida
% of % of Wage RateWage Rate
Median Transit User Wage (2000) $9,094 $9,644
Hourly (2000) $4.37/Hr $4.64/Hr
Commuter $3.57/Hr $3.78/Hr 75%
Personal (local) $2.38/Hr $2.52/Hr 50%
Personal (visitor) $2.58/Hr $2.58/Hr 50%
On-the-clock $7.14/Hr $7.57/Hr 100%
15
2: Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)
Adjustment FactorsAdjustment FactorsCost Cost ParametersParameters
16
Vehicle Operating Cost Assumptions
Vehicle class types – compact, mid-size, large, SUV, Minivan, and trucks
Driving range – 12,000-15,000 miles per year
Vehicle lifespan – 150,000 mi
Southeast Florida
• Urban setting
• Flat surface
17
Factors Affecting Vehicle Operating Costs
Cost Cost CategoryCategory
City vs. City vs. HighwayHighway
Pavement Pavement RoughnessRoughness GeographyGeography Vehicle Age Vehicle Age
Fuel Consumption Yes No Yes No
Maintenance and Repair Yes Yes Yes No
Tires No Yes No No
Depreciation Yes Yes No Yes
18
Default Assumptions
Urban settings assumed in South Florida
City conditions generate 35% more fuel consumption than highway conditions
About 3% annual price increase applied to maintenance and repairs based on historical (20-year period) CPI trends
Fuel Trends Regression
Crude Oil Price vs Year
y = 2E-46e0.0543x
R2 = 0.8161
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Pri
ce
Crude Oil
Fitted Crude Oil Price
Fuel Trends Regression
Gas Price vs Year
y = 1.33380E-23e2.87708E-02x
R2 = 8.50203E-01
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year
Ga
s P
ric
e (
ce
nts
)
Gas Price
Fitted Gas Price
Fuel Trends Regression
Crude Oil Price vs. Gas Price
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Year
Cru
de
Oil
Pri
ce
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Ga
s P
ric
e
Crude Oil Gas
Correlation between Gas Price and Crude Oil Price is 0.97
CPI Regression
CPI vs Year
y = 4.428x - 8682.553
R2 = 0.996
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
CP
I
Historical CPI
Fitted CPI
23
Vehicle Operating Costs – Depreciation Cost
RegionRegion CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV
Annual ($) South Florida $1,805 $1,991 $4,031 $2,418 $4,269
South Florida (cents/mile) 12-15 13-16 27-33 16-20 28-35
Annual ($) Florida $1,809 $1,995 $4,039 $2,423 $4,278
Florida (cents/mile) 12-15 13-16 27-33 16-20 28-35
2004 $
24
Vehicle Operating Costs – Insurance Cost
RegionRegion CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV
Annual Avg. South Florida $1,147 $1,000 $917 $897 $963
Cents/mile 8-10 7-8 6-8 6-7 6-8
Annual Avg. Florida $1,100 $955 $877 $853 $925
Cents/mile 7-9 6-8 6-7 6-7 6-8
U.S. 1.4-8.6
2004 $
25
Vehicle Operating Costs – Fuel Cost
Region Region (cents/mile)(cents/mile)
Compact Compact MPG (24-34)MPG (24-34)
Mid-size Mid-size MPG (24-30)MPG (24-30)
Large Large MPG (17-25)MPG (17-25)
Minivan Minivan MPG (19-27)MPG (19-27)
SUV SUV MPG (16-21)MPG (16-21)
Southeast Florida 4-7 5-7 6-10 6-9 7-10
Florida 4-7 5-7 6-10 6-9 7-10
U.S. 6.1-8.3
$/gallon = $1.53-$1.65 (2004)
26
Vehicle Operating Costs – Financial Charges
RegionRegion(cents/mile)(cents/mile) CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV
Southeast Florida 2-4 2-4 3-5 3-5 4-6
Florida 2-4 2-4 3-5 3-5 4-6
U.S. 4.4-7.4
Average interest rate = 4.45% (2004)Financial Charges = Interest on vehicle loan
27
Vehicle Operating Costs – Fuel Tax
Region Region (cents/mile)(cents/mile) CompactCompact Mid-sizeMid-size LargeLarge MinivanMinivan SUVSUV
Southeast Florida 1-2 1-2 2-3 2-3 2-4
Florida 1-2 1-2 2-3 2-3 2-3
U.S. 1.8- 4.1
Federal = 18.4 cents/gallonState = 14.3 cents/gallonLocal = 6-12 cents/gallon
28
Vehicle Operating Cost ComponentsMid-size Auto
Cost ItemsCost ItemsAnnual VOCAnnual VOC VOC in cents/mileVOC in cents/mile
SEFLSEFL FLFL SEFLSEFL FLFL
Fuel CostFuel Cost $1,160$1,160 $1,160$1,160 9.79.7 9.79.7
Fuel TaxFuel Tax $275$275 $259$259 2.32.3 2.22.2
Maintenance and RepairsMaintenance and Repairs $259$259 $259$259 2.22.2 2.22.2
TiresTires $119$119 $119$119 1.01.0 1.01.0
InsuranceInsurance $1,078$1,078 $1,020$1,020 9.09.0 8.58.5
Total DepreciationTotal Depreciation $1,632$1,632 $1,632$1,632 13.613.6 13.613.6
Finance ChargesFinance Charges $479$479 $481$481 4.04.0 4.04.0
License and RegistrationLicense and Registration $51$51 $51$51 0.40.4 0.40.4
Total Annual CostsTotal Annual Costs $5,054$5,054 $4,981$4,981 42.142.1 41.541.5
2004 $
29
Auto and Commercial VOC (2004)
FloridaFlorida Southeast FloridaSoutheast Florida
Per Mile Per Mile
CostCostAnnual Annual
CostCostPer Mile Per Mile
CostCostAnnual Annual
CostCost
Small $0.395 $4,741 $0.389 $4,666
Median $0.421 $5,054 $0.415 $4,981
Large $0.540 $6,481 $0.534 $6,412
Single-Unit Truck $0.488 $48,789 $0.484 $48,435
Combination-Unit Truck $0.710 $71,047 $0.707 $70,652
Fleet Average $0.552 $12,657 $0.518 $9,327
Transit Operating Costs
Service and cost data obtained from National Transit Database (NTD) - Federal Transit Administration
Modes:
• Bus; Demand Response; Commuter Rail; Light Rail
Data:
• Services: passenger trips; revenue hours; revenue miles
• Costs: operators’ wage; material and supplies; utilities; insurance; tax; purchased transportation; ADA related expense; other expenses.
Unit cost = (total costs)/(total services provided)
31
Transit Vehicle Operating Costs (2004)
Southeast Florida Transit Vehicle Operating CostsSoutheast Florida Transit Vehicle Operating Costs
BusBus
Demand Demand Response Response
(DO)(DO)
Demand Demand Response Response
(PT)(PT)Commuter Commuter
RailRailLight Rail Light Rail (Tampa)(Tampa)
Total Expense (thousand) $437,916 $4,560 $110,817 $31,414 $1,608
Total Passenger Trips (thousand) 129,010.2 270.5 3,029.4 2,674.6 520.2
Total Revenue Miles (thousand) 57,519.7 1,338.0 30,147.6 2,685.1 174.3
Total Revenue Hours (thousand) 4,411.0 98.1 2,077.9 77.6 36.0
Cost / Passenger Trip $3.2 $16.86 $36.58 $11.7 $3.1
Cost / Revenue Mile $7.1 $3.4 $3.7 $11.7 $9.2
Cost / Revenue Hour $93.0 $46.5 $53.3 $404.8 $44.6
32
3. Calculators
Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV Calculator
Transit User TTV Calculator
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
Transit VOC Calculator
Purpose of Calculators
Provide LOCAL data values
Analysis for different years / horizons
Ability to change defaults
• Fuel prices
• Fleet composition – increase in small vehicles?
• Others…
35
Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV Calculator
Input
• Current year/target year
• Wages (optional)
• Inflation factors (optional)
• TTV segmentations (optional)
Output - Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV by
• Geographic level
• Trip type
• Trip purpose
• Vehicle type
• Time of day
38
Transit User TTV Calculator
Input
• Current Year/Target Year
• Wages (optional)
• Inflation factors (optional)
• TTV markets
Output - transit user TTV by
• Geographic level
• Transit mode
• Trip type
• Trip purpose
• Waiting and transferring
41
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
Key Input
• Current fuel price
• Current year / target year
• Average travel speed
Output - annual cost and per mile cost by
• Cost component
• Total costs
43
SEFL FL SEFL FL SEFL FL SEFL FL SEFL FLPurchase (P) or Lease (L) P P P P P P P P P PVehicle Age (Years) 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5Speed (mph) 38 38 38 38 38 38 45 45 45 45Proportion of Highway Mileage over Total Milage 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 70% 70% 80% 80%Mileage per year 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000Fuel Cost $801 $801 $1,048 $1,048 $1,206 $1,206 $20,504 $20,504 $27,491 $27,491Fuel Tax $211 $198 $275 $259 $317 $298 $5,388 $5,071 $7,224 $6,798Maintenance and Repairs $259 $259 $259 $259 $324 $324 $6,364 $6,364 $8,537 $8,537Tires $117 $117 $119 $119 $151 $151 $3,061 $3,061 $3,998 $3,998Insurance $1,236 $1,172 $1,078 $1,020 $1,038 $986 $1,286 $1,246 $6,466 $6,486Total Depreciation $1,534 $1,534 $1,632 $1,632 $2,515 $2,515 $8,601 $8,601 $10,685 $10,685Finance Charges $450 $452 $479 $481 $739 $741 $1,313 $1,317 $3,609 $3,620License and Registration $46 $46 $51 $51 $61 $61 $62 $62 $72 $72
$4,655 $4,580 $4,941 $4,868 $6,351 $6,282 $46,579 $46,225 $68,084 $67,689
$7,983 $7,864 $8,410 $8,294 $9,337 $9,226 $92,774 $92,207 $127,458 $126,824
$0.388 $0.382 $0.412 $0.406 $0.529 $0.524 $0.466 $0.462 $0.681 $0.677
$0.665 $0.655 $0.701 $0.691 $0.778 $0.769 $0.928 $0.922 $1.275 $1.268
Annual Vehicle Operating Cost by Vehicle Size (2004 Value)
Annual Vehicle Operating Cost by Vehicle Size (2030 Value)
Co
st
Co
mp
on
en
ts
(20
04
$)
Small
Att
rib
ute
s
Geographic Level
$12,249Weighted SEFL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2004 Value)
Auto and Commercial Vehicle Annual Operating Cost
Vehicle Class Large Single-Unit Truck Combination-Unit Medium
Weighted FL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2030 Value) $15,615
$21,813
$9,066Weighted FL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2004 Value)
Weighted SEFL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2030 Value)
Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile by Vehicle Size (2004 Value)
Weighted SEFL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2004 Value) $0.533
Weighted FL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2004 Value) $0.502
Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile by Vehicle Size (2030 Value)
Weighted SEFL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2030 Value) $0.958
Weighted FL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2030 Value) $0.876
Back to Calculator Main SheetBack to Calculator Main Sheet
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
Output Page
44
Transit VOC Calculator
Input Service Data
• Mode
• Route Length
• Weekday Service Schedule
• Weekend Service Schedule
• Update Cost Item (Optional)
Output – Transit Vehicle Operating Cost by:
• Mode
• Total Annual Service (Revenue Miles)
• Total Annual Operating Cost
• Annual Operation Cost per Revenue Mile
45
Transit VOC Calculator
Southeast Florida - Equivalent 2004 Values
BusDemand
Response (DO)Demand
Response (PT)Commuter Rail
(CR)Light Rail (LR)
107,204,627 1,237,032 - - n.a. 95,062,476 1,029,951 2,594,443 4,717,459 n.a. 77,733,582 704,007 1,194,788 1,572,487 n.a. 35,931,192 549,691 543,748 6,160,060 n.a.
Fuel and Lube 40,766,150 459,673 - 3,628,571 n.a. Tires and Other 6,830,588 2,145 - - n.a. Others 31,040,346 36,505 50,858 376,870 n.a.
3,069,389 85,722 101,717 1,289,680 n.a. 6,514,890 387,580 - 1,497,406 n.a. 1,124,541 1,883 - - n.a.
In Report 1,698,729 - 69,573,796 12,171,648 n.a. Separate Report - - 36,730,063 - n.a.
3,350,662 65,474 27,903 - n.a. - - - - n.a. - - - - n.a. $ 437,916 $ 4,560 $ 110,817 $ 31,414 $ - 129,010.2 270.5 3,029.4 2,674.6 n.a. 57,519.7 1,338.0 30,147.6 2,685.1 n.a. 4,411.0 98.1 2,077.9 77.6 n.a. $ 3.2 $ 16.86 $ 36.58 $ 11.7 n.a. $ 7.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 11.7 n.a. $ 93.0 $ 46.5 $ 53.3 $ 404.8 n.a.
Miami-Dade - Equivalent 2004 Values
BusDemand
Response (DO)Demand
Response (PT)Commuter Rail Light Rail
75,360,684 - - - $ - 68,630,812 - 506,864 - $ - 51,838,267 - 133,054 - $ - 27,734,119 - - - $ -
Fuel and Lube 27,058,202 - - - $ - Tires and Other 5,811,317 - - - $ - Others 24,017,805 - - - $ -
2,280,186 - - - $ - 3,362,901 - - - $ - 1,123,630 - - - $ -
In Report - - 36,730,063 - $ - Separate Report - - 36,730,063 - $ -
2,670,813 - - - $ - - - - - $ - - - - - $ - $ 309,379,653 $ - $ 74,100,043 $ - $ - 82,203,498.0 - 1,555,446.0 - $ - 37,087,056.0 - 13,577,421.0 - $ - 2,970,540.0 - 912,920.0 - $ - $ 3.5 $ - $ 47.64 $ - $ - $ 7.8 $ - $ 5.5 $ - $ - $ 97.6 $ - $ 81.2 $ - $ -
Cost / Passenger TripCost / Revenue MileCost / Revenue Hour
Casualty and LiabilityTaxPurchased TransportationMisc Expense
Materials and Supplies
Utilities
Total Expense (Thousand)Total Passenger Trips (Thousand)Total Revenue Miles (Thousand)Total Revenue Hours (Thousand)
Cost Item
Op
era
tin
g E
xpe
ns
es
Operators' WageOther Salaries & WagesFringe BenefitsServices
Purchased TransportationMisc ExpenseExpense transferADA Related
Cost Item
Op
era
tin
g E
xpe
ns
es
Operators' WageOther Salaries & Wages
Expense transferADA Related
Fringe BenefitsServices
Materials and Supplies
UtilitiesCasualty and LiabilityTax
Cost / Passenger TripCost / Revenue MileCost / Revenue Hour
Total ExpenseTotal Passenger TripsTotal Revenue MilesTotal Revenue Hours
Back to Calculator Main SheetBack to Calculator Main Sheet
…
• By Region
• By County
• By State
• By Nation
Transit VOC Calculator
Output Page
Bus Vehicle Operating Cost
Total Annual Service (Revenue Miles)
Total Annual Operating Cost (1,000$)
Unit Operating Cost ($/Revenue Mile)
2008 Value 278,720 $1,677 $6.02
2030 Value 278,720 $2,459 $8.83
Back to Calculator Main SheetBack to Calculator Main Sheet
48
Reference Data
• Median/Average Wage
• CPI
• Crude Oil Price
• Gasoline Price
• Auto Price
• Vehicle Fleet Composition
• Transit User Income
• Bus Rider Income
• Tri-Rail Rider Income
• MetroRail Rider Income
• Vehicle Depreciation
• Vehicle Speed vs. Fuel Consumption
49
4. Sample Applications
1. Lane closure cost calculation
• Hypothesis scenario
• Additional cost for roadway users (TTV + VOC) resulted from lane closure
2. Trip cost comparison for Auto and Transit
• Cost for roadway user (TTV + VOC) and transit user (TTV + fare)
• Downtown Coral Springs to Fort Lauderdale
50
Sample Application 1
Left Lane Closure on I-595 from University Dr. to FTPK
• Conditions− 2009, 2 days, 2.2 miles
− AADT 227,000
− Average occupancy: 1.2 people per vehicle
− Average travel speed reduced from 55mph to 35mph
− TTV in 2009: $8.16 per hour
− VOC at 35mph: $0.471/mile; VOC at 55mph: $0.461/mile
• Costs− TTV increased : (2.2/35 – 2.2/55)*8.16*227,000*1.2*2 = $101,613
− VOC increased: ($0.471 – $0.461)*2.2*227,000*2 = $9,988
− Total cost = TTV + VOC = $111,601
51
Sample Application 2
Downtown Coral Springs to Fort Lauderdale
Discussion:
• what TTV should be used for the transit alternative?
• Value of Wait time?
Time Vehicle Dist.
Avg. Spd.
(mph)
Travel Time (mins
)TTV/ hour
Trip TTV
VOC/ mi
Trip VOC
Total Trip Cost
Peak Hour
Mid-size Car
20 miles
25 mph
48 $7.82 $6.26 $0.52$10.4
0$16.6
6
Bus10
mph120 $5.26
$10.52
-$2.50 fare
$13.02
Off-Peak Hour
Mid-size Car
40 mph
30 $7.76 $3.88 $0.45 $9.00$12.8
8
Bus16
mph75 $4.02 $5.03 -
$2.50 fare
$7.53