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Transport systems of tomorrowAugust 2017 | Andrew Jackson, Deputy Chief Executive
What I will cover
Where are we now
Where we might end up – how the transport system might change over the next
20 years
What that means for health outcomes
Transport has an important impact on health
outcomes
Clarity of connection
Deaths
InjuryAir quality
Inactivity
Mental health
Even a small change would bring benefits
5%
cycling on
short
urban trips
=116
activity
5.6
pollution
5
cyclist
DEATHS
Auckland example
5%
walking or cycling
on 2kms trips
and cycling 5kms
=5%
vkt
$225m pa
health benefits
Active travel is declining in NZ
Active transport has been decreasing
12 Source: Ministry of Transport , 25 Years of New Zealand Travel, 2015
Mode of Travel to School in New Zealand – Ages 13-17
Two transport futures are debated
Sustainable versus Smart
Sustainable OR
•Avoid
•Shift
•Improve
Smart
•Data based
•Customer centric
•Intelligent
Accessibility preference virtualphysical
Accessibility preference
Re
lati
ve
co
st
high
low
virtualphysical
Accessibility preference
Rel
ativ
e
co
st
high
low
virtualphysical
Global Locals
Travellers’ Paradise Digital Decadence
Co-operative and Close
3%53%
25%35%
Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042
Disruptions to transport
• AV
• Platform technology
• System management
Technology
• Virtual
• Use not own
• Plan not hopeSocial
Disruptions to transport
• AV
• Platform technology
• System management
Technology
• Virtual
• Use not own
• Plan not hopeSocial
Seamless
Siloed
Disruptions to transport
• AV
• Platform technology
• System management
Technology
• Virtual
• Use not own
• Plan not hopeSocial
Hesitant Novelty
chasing
Regulation 2025
16
Novelty
chasing
Hesitant
Seamless
Siloed
Slowly and surely
Can’t get enoughKeeping our boundaries
Embracing connectivity
Regulation 2025
17
Novelty
chasing
Hesitant
Seamless
Siloed
Slowly and surely
Can’t get enoughKeeping our boundaries
Embracing connectivity
$0.31
$0.97
$0.63
$0.46
Accessibility preference
Rel
ativ
e
cost
high
low
virtualphysical
Travellers’ Paradise Digital Decadence
25%35%
Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042
Factors affecting travel choice
Comfort
Cost
Convenience
Changing cost of travel – Wellington City
2016
Commuting by private car
5kms x 2 @ 0.97c/km = $10 car
$14 parking
$24 total cost per day by car
Commuting by PT
$20 cost per day of PT
$10 price per day of PT
Changing cost of travel
2016
Commuting by private car
5kms x 2 @ 0.97c/km = $10 car
$14 parking
$24 total cost per day by car
Commuting by PT
$20 cost per day of PT
$10 price per day of PT
Comfort
Cost
Convenience
$14
Cars 70% vs PT 18%
Changing cost of travel
2016
Commuting by private car
13.5kms x 2 @ 0.97c/km = $26 car
$15 parking
$41 total cost per day by car
Travel by PT
$20 cost per day of PT
$10 price per day of PT
2035
Commuting by AV fleet
5kms x 2 @ 0.31c/km = $1.50 car
$0 parking
$3 total cost per day by AV fleet
Commuting by PT
$14 cost per day of PT
$7 price per day of PT
Changing cost of travel
2035
Commuting by AV fleet
5kms x 2 @ 0.31c/km = $1.50 car
$0 parking
$3 total cost per day by AV fleet
Commuting by PT
$14 cost per day of PT
$7 price per day of PTComfort
Cost
Convenience
$3
Mobility patterns today: era of private cars
Vehicle
ownership
Journeys
Personal Communal
Public
transport
Private
fleets
Personal
Future Mobility patterns: fleet era
Vehicle
ownership
Journeys
Personal Communal
Public
transport
Private
fleets
Personal
Accessibility preference
Rel
ativ
e
cost
high
low
virtualphysical
Travellers’ Paradise
35%
Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042
Future mobility – the opportunities and challenges
What does this mean for Government?
Government may no longer
Fund PT to ensure access and choice
Regulate for carbon from transport
Government will still need to
Broader role on health
Regulate for safety and security
Regulate for economic issues
Provide infrastructure, physical and virtual
Manage for access
What estimated social costs
could transport policy potentially impact?
0123456789
Bill
ion
$/Y
ear
All Causes
Transport Only
Transport comes at a significant cost of lives
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
All Causes
Transport Only
Will we need to change the balance of our
investments?
050
100150200250300350400450
Mill
ion
$Road SafetyPromotion
Police Road SafetyProgramme
Road SafetyImprovements
EmergencyAmbulance Services
ACC Client TravelReimbursements
How much transport spending is at least partly directed at
addressing each of these health impacts?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mill
ion
$
Police Road SafetyProgrammeRoad Safety Promotion
Roading Improvements
Kiwirail Freight
Electric Vehicle Programme
Walking and CyclingProgrammesPublic Transport Services
Total Mobility Programme
SuperGold CardProgrammeEmergency AmbulanceServicesACC Client TravelReimbursements
Air quality – do we have a solution
Percentage of how many vehicles come from Japan and
from other sources (per year)
Japan = 223,000
Other = 62,000
Number of new and used imports (per year)
132,000 new
153,000 used
Stock of vehicles – 3.5 million
vehicles in New Zealand
Used New
Light vehicles imports into New Zealand
Note: Japanese stock of EVs= 138,000
New EV entrants to the Japanese market approximately 30,000 per
year.
In August 2016, 0.48 percent of all light vehicle registrations in New
Zealand are EVs.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
BEV 59.3%48.3%37.9%28.4%20.0%12.0% 4.0% 1.6% -0.8%-5.6% -11.1 -15.8 -20.8 -21.2 -21.3 -21.3
PHEV-P 49.8%39.7%30.2%21.3%13.3% 5.6% 3.9% 2.1% -2.2%-6.2% -10.7 -14.9 -14.9 -15.0 -15.1 -15.1
PHEV-D 56.9%47.1%37.7%29.0%21.1%13.6%11.9%10.1% 5.9% 1.8% -2.8%-7.0%-7.1%-7.2%-7.2%-7.3%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
New electric vehicle four year ownership compared with internal combustion engine – petrol
KEY
BEV – pure EVs
PHEV – Petrol (P)
PHEV – Diesel (D)
Source: Ministry of Transport
Will MaaS improve access?
Five levels of MaaS
For the user
► Information of transport choices available to the customer
► Common payment platform for the customer
Of the transport system
► Coordinated services
► Management of services (pricing)
► Integration of the services (one algorithm to rule them all)
What we did What we foundWhy
Impacts on Accessibility• Demand-responsive public transport generates much more equitable levels of
accessibility across the city.
• Maps of classes of weighted average straight-line equivalent speed from each
grid cell to all others with distance greater than 1 km (using PT)
Urban Mobility: System Upgrade
Gini coeffs. for avg. linear speed
Current: 0.37Taxibus+Metro: 0.23
For each cell as origin, avg of values to each destination weighted by the O->D flow
But what about inactivity?
The future is Sustainable and Smart
Avoid
Shift
Improve
Mobility
PT
Fleet
Access
Active and ride share
System