The End of Commuting

Forming Transportation Policy and Planning in a Data-free World – THE CASE OF CIA3

Portland October 27, 2006

Alan E. Pisarski

Alan E. Pisarski

WE ARE BLESSED WITH LOFTY GOALS TO STIR MEN’S (& WOMEN’S) SOULS?

Present National Goal:

MAKING THINGS GET WORSE -

--- SLOWER!

“ Many areas are targeting a goal of slowing the

growth of congestion, rather than a reduction.” THE 2002 URBAN MOBILITY REPORT, TTI, pg. 10

The starting point

WHAT IS THE GOAL?

My goal for transportation is to reduce the effects of distance as an inhibiting force in our society’s ability to realize its economic and social aspirations

Alan E. Pisarski

Responding to “The Tyranny of Distance”

It is a very big country!

Few nations have been challenged as greatly as we have been by “The Tyranny of Distance.”

No other nation has succeeded as we have in reducing the influence of distance on its economic future!

Alan E. Pisarski

Transportation Was Always About Time And DistanceTime Pressures Will Dominate

THE AUTO IS NOW AND WILL BE THE TIME TOOL

HIGH INCOME POPULATION

HIGH VALUE OF GOODS

SKILLED WORKERS IN SHORT SUPPLY

A MULTI-TASKING SOCIETY

PRESSURES ON WOMEN

Alan E. Pisarski

- The New Millennium World –a challenged affluent society

A STABLE “OLD” POPULATION

SKILLED WORKERS AT A PREMIUM

WORKERS CAN LIVE, WORK ANYWHERE

WHO, WHERE ARE THE IMMIGRANTS?

MAINSTREAMING MINORITIES

THE SCOURGE OF AFFLUENCE

THE GLOBALIZATION OF EVERTHING

Alan E. Pisarski

The Demographic Story

1. Boomers moving off stage

2. Where will the workers come from?

3. Advent of the immigrant workforce

4. Exurbanization

Alan E. Pisarski

Forces of Stability and Change in Future Travel Demand

Stable

Licenses/Vehicles

Workers

Population & Households

Migration

Changing

Incomes

Locations

Immigrants

Aging

Alan E. Pisarski

Old & Revised Census Estimates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1950-

1960

1960-

1970

1970-

1980

1980-

1990

1990-

2000

2000-

2010

2010-

2020

2020-

2030

2030-

2040

2040-

2050

BLUE = actual pop; PINK = 2000 estimate; RED = 2005 estimate

Alan E. Pisarski

Complex projections – or a ruler?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

19501960

19701980

19902000

20102020

20302040

2050

ESTIMATE 2000

25 MEG

ESTIMATE 2005

A 25 million per decade estimate works pretty well!

New estimate: 420 meg in 2050

Alan E. Pisarski

POPULATION SHARES

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

% UNDER 18 % WORKING AGE % 65 AND OVER

Alan E. Pisarski

MALES OF WORKING AGE

&

AS SHARE OF POPULATION

82,67592,234 95,932 98,622

105,411112,366

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(000'S

)

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

WORK AGE % WORK AGE

Alan E. Pisarski

END OF THE BOOM

WORKERS ADDED PER DECADE

12.2

19.818.4

13.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00

Mil

lio

ns o

f W

orkers

1980-90

18.5 MILLION WORKERS

1990-2000

13.3 MILLION WORKERS

Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

Alan E. Pisarski

There’s more to transportation than just commuting!

COMMUTING (16-20% of local psgr travel)

OTHER LOCAL TRAVEL

TOURISM

SERVICES (Power/phone/cable/sewer/water)

PUBLIC VEHICLES (gov’t services)

URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT

THRU PASSENGER TRAVEL

THRU FREIGHT TRAVEL

Alan E. Pisarski

The Role of Commuting Today

WORK TRIP SHARE OF TRAVEL BY DAY OF WEEK

4.7

18.9 19.3 18.7 18.816.5

6.4

18.4

14.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wedn

esday

Thursday

Friday

Sat

urday

5 DA

Y

7 DA

Y

%

Alan E. Pisarski

The Role of Commuting Today

Still declining in share

But some new understanding

Activities of workersWork as a Percentage of all Travel Measures

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Person Trips Person Miles of TravelVehicle Trips Vehciles Miles of Travel

Alan E. Pisarski

Daily trips per Capita

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

WORK FAM/PERS BUS SCHOOL/CHCH SOC/REC OTH

Alan E. Pisarski

workers by age group 2000

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

<16 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Worker

non worker

Alan E. Pisarski

TREND IN PERSONAL VMT – by age-sex

02000400060008000

1000012000140001600018000

16-

19

20-

34

35-

54

55-

64

65+ 16-

19

20-

34

35-

54

55-

64

65+

Female Male

90-01 CHG

90 VMT

Alan E. Pisarski

Metro Stability re Driving Alone?

Alan E. Pisarski


Alan E. Pisarski


Alan E. Pisarski

Special Transit Study of Trips Downtown

%

metro

Wash DC 9%

New York 25%

Seattle 7%

Dallas Ft W 1.8%

Alan E. Pisarski


%

metro

%

cc

Wash DC 9% 21%

New York 25% 45%

Seattle 7% 12%

Dallas Ft W 1.8% 2.6%

Alan E. Pisarski


%

metro

%

cc

% “Downtown”

Wash DC 9% 21% 38%

New York 25% 45% 77%

Seattle 7% 12% 37%

Dallas Ft W 1.8% 2.6% 14%

Alan E. Pisarski

Four key Dichotomies

Over/under 20 minutes commute

In/out of metro area over 5 million (12 metros in 2005)

Before/after 8 am

Over/under age 55

Alan E. Pisarski

Adjusting for travel times

21.7

22.4

25.5

21.7

23.4

25.5

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

1980 1990 2000

National

Adj National

Alan E. Pisarski

Extreme Commutes

10 million over 60 minutes; 1/3 90+

60-90 minute commute grew 2x average

90+ minute commute grew 5x average

Percent of workers commuting over 60

minutes and under 20 minutes by metro size

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

5,000,000 or

more

2,500,000 to

4,999,999

1,000,000 to

2,499,999

500,000 to

999,999

250,000 to

499,999

100,000 to

249,999

50,000 to

99,999

% under 20

% over 60

Alan E. Pisarski

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1 2 3

In met area -- 5,000,000 + In met area -- 2,500,000 to 4,999,999

In met area -- 1,000,000 to 2,499,999 In met area -- 500,000 to 999,999

In met area -- 250,000 to 499,999 In met area -- 100,000 to 249,999

In met area -- 50,000 to 99,999 Not in metro area

CARPOOLING TRANSIT WORK AT HOME

Alan E. Pisarski

TRANSIT SHARE BY METRO AREA SIZE - 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

5,00

0,000

or m

ore

2,50

0,000

to 4

,999,

999

1,00

0,000

to 2

,499,

999

500,

000 to

999

,999

250,

000 to

499

,999

100,

000 to

249

,999

50,0

00 to

99,9

99

perc

en

t

CC

SUB

Alan E. Pisarski

male-female commuting distribution by hour of the day

2000

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

12:00 a.m. to

4:59

a.m

.:

5:00 a.m. to 5:29 a.m.:

5:30 a.m. to 5:59 a.m.:

6:00 a.m. to 6:29 a.m.:

6:30 a.m. to 6:59 a.m.:

7:00 a.m. to 7:29 a.m.:

7:30 a.m. to 7:59 a.m.:

8:00 a.m. to 8:29 a.m.:

8:30 a.m. to 8:59 a.m.:

9:00 a.m. to 9:59 a.m.:

10:00 a.m. to

10:59 a.m

.:

11:00 a.m. to

11:59 a.m

.:

12:00 p.m. to

3:59

p.m

.:

4:00 p.m. to 11:59

p.m

.:

00 Male

00 Female

Alan E. Pisarski

8 O’clock and all’s well

0%

2%4%

6%

8%

10%12%

14%

12:0

0 a.m

. to

4:59

a.m

.

5.00

a.m

. to

5:29

a.m

.

5.30

a.m

. to

5:59

a.m

.

6.00

a.m

. to

6:29

a.m

.

6.30

a.m

. to

6:59

a.m

.

7.00

a.m

. to

7:29

a.m

.

7.30

a.m

. to

7:59

a.m

.

8.00

a.m

. to

8:29

a.m

.

8.30

a.m

. to

8:59

a.m

.

9.00

a.m

. to

9:59

a.m

.

10.0

0 a.m

. to

10.59

a.m

.

11.0

0 a.m

. to

11:59

a.m

.

12:0

0p.m

. to

3:59

p.m

.

4:00

p.m

. to

11:5

9 p.

m.

ALL

bus or trolley bus Streetcar or Trollley car Subway or Elevated

Railroad Ferryboat Taxicab

Motorcycle Bicycle walked

Other method

Alan E. Pisarski

START TIME CHANGES IN SHARE 1990-2000

2.4

14.7

6.9

3

11.2

24.9

12.4

5.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

pre 5 am 5-6:30am 9-11am WAH

%

was in '90

shr of chg

Alan E. Pisarski

Aging out of the Boomers -1

SHARES OF OVER 55 WORKERS BY AGE GROUP

49%

27%

12%

7%5%

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Alan E. Pisarski

Aging out of the Boomers - 2

Over 55 patterns in mode use of private vehicles

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

55-64 65-74 75+

Drove alone

2 people

3 people

4 people

5 or 6 people

7 or more people

Alan E. Pisarski


Over 55 patterns in mode use of other modes

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

55-64 65-74 75+

bus or trolley bus

Streetcar or Trollley car

Subway or Elevated

Railroad

Ferryboat

Taxicab

Motorcycle

Bicycle

walked

worked at home

Other method

Alan E. Pisarski


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

MALE UNDER 20 MINS

FEMALE UNDER 20 MINS

MALE OVER 60 MINS

FEMALE OVER 60 MINS

Alan E. Pisarski

THE SHIFT HAS BEGUN

OVER 65 1990 2000 %

POPULATION (millions)

31.2 35.0 12.2%

WORKERS (millions)

3.5 4.25 21.4%

SHARE AT WORK

11.2% 12.1%

Alan E. Pisarski

THE SHIFT HAS BEGUN

OVER 65 1990 2000 % 2005

POPULATION (millions)

31.2 35.0 12.2%

36.8*

WORKERS (millions)

3.5 4.25 21.4%

4.66

SHARE AT WORK

11.2% 12.1% 12.7%

* Census estimate 2005

Alan E. Pisarski

THE SHIFT HAS BEGUN

OVER 65 1990 2000 2010 2020

POPULATION 31.2 35.0 40.2 54.6

WORKERS 3.5 4.25 5.1 6.9

SHARE AT WORK

11.2% 12.1% 12.7% 12.7%

Alan E. Pisarski

Immigrants will be a key part of the work force

HISPANIC SHARE OF POPULATION BY WORKING AGE GROUPS

17%

11%12%

5%

13%

0%

2%

4%6%

8%

10%

12%

14%16%

18%

20%

% <16 %16+ %16-65 % 65+ ALL

Alan E. Pisarski

The Immigrant story - 1

immigrants are only 13.5% of workers but are

significant part of usage in some modes

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dro

ve a

lone

2 pe

ople

3 pe

ople

4 pe

ople

5 or

6 p

eople

7 or

mor

e peo

ple

Bus

or t

rolle

y bu

s

Stre

etca

r/ tro

lley ca

r

Sub

way

or e

leva

ted

Railr

oad

Ferryboa

t

Taxicab

Mot

orcy

cle

Bicyc

le

Walk

ed

Work

ed at h

ome

Oth

er m

etho

d

all w

ork

BORN US

ALL 2 US

Alan E. Pisarski


Mode Use by Years in US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

< 5 yrs 5- <10

yrs

10-<15

yrs

15-<20

yrs

>20 yrs BORN

US

other

Worked at home

Walked

Bicycle

transit

carpool

Drove alone

Alan E. Pisarski


Carpool Use by Yrs in US

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

< 5 yrs 5- <10

yrs

10-<15

yrs

15-<20

yrs

>20 yrs BORN

US

carpool 3

carpool 4

carpool 5 or 6

carpool 7&+

Alan E. Pisarski


8.9%

6.7%

5.8%

4.7%

3.5%

2.0%

4.2%

5.4%

4.4%4.0%

3.5%

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

< 5 yrs 5- <10 yrs 10-<15 yrs 15-<20 yrs >20 yrs BORN US

Bus or trolley bus

Subw ay or elevated

HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE

We can do it if we work together!

Alan E. Pisarski

Transportation spending rises in share as income rises.

Percent of all Consumer Spending onTransportation 2002

by income quintile

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

LOWEST LOWER MID MIDDLE UPPER MID HIGHEST

Alan E. Pisarski

Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income - 2001

0100020003000400050006000

< $10K

10K - < $

20K

20K - < $

30K

30K - < $

40K

40K - < $

50K

50K - < $

60K

60K - < $

70K

70K - < $

80K80K+

2005

Alan E. Pisarski

WORK TRIP LENGTH TRENDby income

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

<

$10K

10K -

<

$20K

20K -

<

$30K

30K -

<

$40K

40K -

<

$50K

50K -

<

$60K

60K -

<

$70K

70K -

<

$80K

80K+

mil

es

1990

1995

2001

Alan E. Pisarski

Mode Choice by Income –2001 – all purposes

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $20,000 $20- $40K $40- $75K $75- $100K $100K+

%

SOV HOV Transit Walk Other (+taxi+Bike+school)

Alan E. Pisarski

Modes have an income signature

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dro

ve a

lone

2-p

ers

on c

arp

ool

3-p

ers

on c

arp

ool

4-p

ers

on c

arp

ool

5-o

r-6-p

ers

on c

arp

ool

7-o

r-m

ore

-pers

on c

arp

ool

Bus o

r trolle

y bus

Streetc

ar or trolle

y car

Subw

ay

or ele

vate

dR

ailr

oad

Ferryboat

Bic

ycl

eW

alked

Taxi

cab

Moto

rcyc

leO

ther m

eans

Work

ed a

t hom

eall

transit

under $25,000 $25,000 to $75,000 $75,000-$100,000 OVER $100,000

Alan E. Pisarski

WE ARE AT VEHICLE

SATURATION?

0

50

100

150

200

250

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1995

PE

OP

LE

PE

R C

AR

POPULATION TO VEHICLE RATIO 1900-1995

2.6 1.3

Alan E. Pisarski

TRENDS IN SHARES OF HOUSEHOLDS BY VEHICLE

OWNERSHIP

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

O VEHICLES

1 VEHICLE

2 VEHICLES

3+ VEHICLES

Alan E. Pisarski

zero vehicle households by Race and Ethnicity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000

%

White Non-Hisp

Black

Hisp

Asian

Am Indian

All

THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY HAS MORE TO GO!

Alan E. Pisarski

A key to the future? When will minorities reach 5%?

Percent Households without vehicles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

White Black Hisp Asian All

1995

2001

Alan E. Pisarski

Another key

Foreign-born persons in households without Vehicles

by Year of Arrival

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

ARRIVED

BETWEEN

1996-2000

ARRIVED

BETWEEN

1991-1995

ARRIVED

BETWEEN

1980-1990

ARRIVED 1980

AND BEFORE

NOT FOREIGN

BORN

Alan E. Pisarski

20th CENTURY POPULATION TREND

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SUBS

CC

NON MET

Alan E. Pisarski

SHARE OF POPULATION CHANGES 2000-2030

15%

20%

15%15%

23%

5%7% CALIFORNIA

REST OF WEST

TEXAS

FLORIDA

REST OF SOUTH

NORTH EAST

MIDWEST

Alan E. Pisarski

The Focus will be on Big Metros

60% of population in big metros

(2000)

1960 34 areas over 1 million



2005 53 areas

Probably 60 by 2020

60/20/20 big metro/metro/rural

Alan E. Pisarski

The Focus will be on Big Metros

12 areas with

more than 5 meg.

1/3 of national

pop.; 100 meg.

Growth is in

exurbs expanding

areas

NY, LA, CHI, DC, SF, DFW, PHIL, BOS, DET, MIA, HOU, ATL,

PHX, SEA next

Alan E. Pisarski

Immense distortions from choices of geography

Census redefinitions distort trends

“central cities – not”

Exurbs vs rural

Urbanized area boundaries

Need a science of suburbanism

Flows from suburb to suburb

Think markets

Alan E. Pisarski

% LEAVING COUNTY TO WORK

U.S.

1990 23.9% of workers left home

2000 26.7%

OF ALL 13.2 Meg. WORKERS 51% Left home county (6.7 Meg. )

ONLY 3 STATES DOWN !

Wash DC Area leads

Alan E. Pisarski

Ware

Burke

Clinch

Hall

Laurens

Early

Floyd

Lee

Bulloch

Worth Wayne

Charlton

Coffee

Fulton

Tift

Long

ScrevenHarris

Emanuel

Decatur

Carroll

Troup

Dodge

Irwin

Grady

Bryan

Polk

Colquitt

Liberty

Wilkes

Telfair

Brooks

Dooly

Bartow

Appling

Sumter

Thomas

Gilmer

Mitchell

Jones

Camden

Tattnall

Cobb

Elbert

Walker

Talbot

Berrien

Hart

Echols

Taylor

Stewart

Macon

Coweta

RabunFannin

Baker

Union

Washington

JeffersonBibb

Wilcox

Lowndes

Jasper Hancock

HenryGreene

Brantley

Marion

Pierce

Crisp

Monroe

Terrell

Miller

Glynn

Murray

Twiggs

Upson

Pike

Gwinnett

Heard

Gordon

Clay

Effingham

Morgan

Wilkinson

Cherokee

Houston

Toombs

Bacon

White

Jackson

Oglethorpe

Warren

Banks

Newton

Lincoln

McIntosh

Chatham

Lumpkin

Columbia

Richmond

Ben Hill

Dougherty

Haralson

Candler

EvansSchley

Spalding

Muscogee

Stephens

Clayton

Quitman

Georgia.shp

GA_25per_more_1990.shp

0 - 25

25 - 100

N

EW

S

GA: 25% or More Leaving County of Residence to Work in 1990

Alan E. Pisarski

Ware

Burke

Clinch

Hall

Laurens

Early

Floyd

Lee

Bulloch

Worth Wayne

Charlton

Coffee

Fulton

Tift

Long

ScrevenHarris

Emanuel

Decatur

Carroll

Troup

Dodge

Irwin

Grady

Bryan

Polk

Colquitt

Liberty

Wilkes

Telfair

Brooks

Dooly

Bartow

Appling

Sumter

Thomas

Gilmer

Mitchell

Jones

Camden

Tattnall

Cobb

Elbert

Walker

Talbot

Berrien

Hart

Echols

Taylor

Stewart

Macon

Coweta

RabunFannin

Baker

Union

WashingtonJeffersonBibb

Wilcox

Lowndes

Jasper Hancock

HenryGreene

Brantley

Marion

Pierce

Crisp

Monroe

Terrell

Miller

Glynn

Murray

Twiggs

Upson

Pike

Gwinnett

Heard

Gordon

Clay

Effingham

Morgan

Wilkinson

Cherokee

Houston

Toombs

Bacon

White

Jackson

Oglethorpe

Warren

Banks

Newton

Lincoln

McIntosh

Chatham

Lumpkin

Columbia

Richmond

Ben Hill

Dougherty

Haralson

Candler

EvansSchley

Spalding

Muscogee

Stephens

Clayton

Quitman

Georgia.shp

Ga_25per_more_2000.shp

0 - 2525 - 100

N

EW

S

GA :25% or More Leaving the County of RTesidence to Work

Alan E. Pisarski

Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp0 - 2525 - 100

N

EW

S

County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000

Alan E. PisarskiCnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp

0 - 2525 - 100

N

EW

S

County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000

Alan E. Pisarski

Share of Increase in Commuting Flows 1990-2000

3%

19%

14%64%

Cent City to Cent

City

Cent City to

Suburbs

Suburbs to Cent

City

Suburbs to

Suburbs

Alan E. Pisarski

The “Donut” Metro

Jobs and workers centered in suburbs

46% of commutes;

64% of growth 90-00

7.5 million coming in to the subs from exurbs and other metros each day

7.5 million going out to the subs from central cities

CC to subs > Subs to CC in share of growth

Alan E. Pisarski

Suburban Flows grow with metro size

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50,000 to 99,999

100,000 to 249,999

250,000 to 499,999

500,000 to 999,999

1,000,000 to

2,499,999

2,500,000 to 4,999,999

5,000,000 or more

subs-out

subs-subs

subs-cc

cc-out

cc-subs

cc-cc

Alan E. Pisarski

Own Metropolitan Area

Other Metropolitan area

suburbs

Central

city

Central

city

suburbs

24.5

7.5

16.6

40.8

.7

2.2

1.1

3.5

1.9

.5

24.4

1.6

2.9

Non-metropolitan Area

2000 METRO FLOW MAP

Alan E. Pisarski

Two things are key: Time and Costwe measure both badly

TIME

Weak Travel Time for work

Nothing else NPTS

No purchased modes data

No service summary data

COST

CEX only small

AAA limited

No trucking costs

No ton-mile costs

Limited fare costs in purchased modes

Alan E. Pisarski

My keys on travel time% under 20 mins / % over 60 mins

Percent of workers commuting over 60

minutes and under 20 minutes by metro size

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

5,000,000 or

more

2,500,000 to

4,999,999

1,000,000 to

2,499,999

500,000 to

999,999

250,000 to

499,999

100,000 to

249,999

50,000 to

99,999

% under 20

% over 60

Alan E. Pisarski

CIA II – Unresolved Questions

Force of Immig. Persist?

Immig. trend to mainstream?

Job/worker balance?

Minorities typical?

Will tech fixes work?

WAH & telecom impact?

ITS influence?

Aging commuters change the trend?

Growth in smaller metro areas?

Higher densities?

Alan E. Pisarski

New Patterns to Watch

Who, where will the workers be?

Will long distance commute expand further?

Will role of commuting decline/grow or just change?

Will value of time still be the guiding factor?

Value of mobility recognized?

Alan E. Pisarski

Is Our Transportation System In Place?

A nation that by the end of the decade can expect: Another 25-30 million people

And probably as many vehicles

And another $3 trillion in GDP

Cannot say that its transportation work is done!

Alan E. Pisarski

WE ADD THE POPULATION OF A CANADA EACH DECADE!!!!

DO WE ADD CANADA’S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM?

Alan E. Pisarski

For the first time in history–

A nation’s population is approaching a state where it can live and work wherever it wants!

Affluence and low cost transportation and communications have made that possible.

American society must have the mobility it needs to meet its social and economic goals. IT IS NOT OK TO FAIL!

Thank you

Alan E. Pisarski

Alan E. Pisarski

PATTERNS TO WATCH

Immigrant arrivals?

Where do immigrants go?

Minorities & mobility?

Where do aging baby-boomers go?

Multiple home ownership?

What happens to Job/Worker suburban ratios?

Even more women in workplace?

Work by >65 pop?

Workplace patterns?

Alan E. Pisarski

30 YEAR POP TREND BY AGE GROUP

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

.Under 5 years .5 to 13 years .14 to 17 years

.18 to 24 years .25 to 44 years .45 to 64 years

.65 years and over

Alan E. Pisarski

WORKING AGE POP VS DEPENDENT POP

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

OVER 65

WORKAGE

UNDER 20

Alan E. Pisarski

Transit use sensitive to income – at both ends of spectrum

Central City and suburban Transit Use by income

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Le

ss th

an

$1

0,0

00

-

$1

5,0

00

-

$2

0,0

00

-

$2

5,0

00

-

$3

0,0

00

-

$3

5,0

00

-

$4

0,0

00

-

$4

5,0

00

-

$5

0,0

00

-

$6

0,0

00

-

$1

00

,00

0-

$1

50

,00

0

CC TRANSIT SUB TRANSIT

Alan E. Pisarski

Cars per Household – 40 year trend

NUMBER OF HH BY VEHICLES OWNED

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

OO

O'S

O VEHICLES 1 VEHICLE 2 VEHICLES 3+ VEHICLES

Alan E. Pisarski

POP TREND BY AGE GROUP 2000-2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

..85+

..65-84

..45-64

..20-44

..5-19

..0-4

Alan E. Pisarski

CHANGE IN WORK AGE POP

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

..0-4 ..5-19 ..20-44 ..45-64 ..65-84 ..85+

Alan E. Pisarski

SHARES OF DEPENDENT POPULATION

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% DEP

% < 20

% >65

Alan E. Pisarski


Car, truck, or van

70.00%

72.00%

74.00%

76.00%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Alan E. Pisarski

Transportation Spending by Workers/hh

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

single

consumer no

earner (1)

multiple

consumer no

earner (2.3)

single

consumer one

earner (1)

multiple

consumer 1

earner (2.9)

multiple

consumer 2

earners (3.1)

multiple

consumer 3+

earners (4.4)

Alan E. Pisarski

VEHICLES OWNED BY NUMBER OF WORKERS

1.20

2.50

3.20

2.00

1.80

0.80

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

single

consumer no

earner (1)

multiple

consumer no

earner (2.3)

single

consumer one

earner (1)

multiple

consumer 1

earner (2.9)

multiple

consumer 2

earners (3.1)

multiple

consumer 3+

earners (4.4)

Alan E. Pisarski

2000-2050 GROWTH RATES BY AGE GROUP

050

100150200250300350400450

..TOTAL

0-4

5-19

20-4

4

45-6

4

..65-

84 85+

GR

OW

TH

RA

TE

2000-2050

Alan E. Pisarski

Male Female Growth Rates 2000-2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

MALE

TOTAL

0-4

19-M

ay

20-4

4

45-6

4

65-8

485

+

FEMALE

TOTAL

0-4

19-M

ay

20-4

4

45-6

4

65-8

485

+

Alan E. Pisarski

GROWTH BY AGE GROUP, (OOO'S)

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

0-4 5-19 20-44 45-64 65-84 85+ TOTAL

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050

Alan E. Pisarski

WORKING AGE GROUP GROWTH (000'S)

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

20-44 45-64

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040

2040-2050

Alan E. Pisarski

AGE GROUP GROWTH RATES 2000-2030

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%110%

Under 5

years

5 to 13

years

14 to 17

years

18 to 24

years

25 to 44

years

45 to 64

years

65

years

and

over

ALL

Alan E. Pisarski

Commuting in America III hots

From a Social point of view

Af am vehicles

Immig transitions

From an Economic Point of view

% leave home county

From a transportation point of view

leave home by 6 am

Work at home

WHAT IS CONGESTION ?

Congestion is:

People with the economic means to act on their social and economic interests -getting in the way of other people with the means to act on theirs!

Education

The End of Commuting