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Towards a New Social Contract Environment and Conservation Association Gala Dinner
27 March 2009
Dr. Anthony TurtonDirector: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
© AR Turton, 2009Images © National Geographic
Layout of Presentation
• Does SA need to grow its economy?
• What are the current natural resource constraints?
• Our management problem is ...
• Towards a New Social Contract ...
• Conclusion
Does SA need to grow the economy?
• Yes.....
• The hope of a generation of disenfranchised citizens culminated in the promise of democracy.
• That promise has largely failed....
• Revolution of rising expectations.
• If the demands of society exceed the capacity of the state to deliver, then anger is possible.
What are the current natural resource constraints?
• Energy ...• Water ...• Our energy constraint is defined by water.• The sulphur cycle is of particular importance –
but is not debated / studied.• In a future scenario where we burn more coal,
but possibly with less precipitation, what will happen to rainfall?
• Acidification is our energy limitation ...
SA’s Water Situation
Source: Peter Ashton
100200300400500600700800900
10001250150020002500
Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)
NAMIBIA(254) BOTSWANA
(400)
SOUTH AFRICA(497)
ZAMBIA(1,011)
ZIMBABWE(652)
ANGOLA(1,050)
D. R. C.(1,534) TANZANIA
(937)
MOZAMBIQUE(969)
SWAZILAND(788)
LESOTHO(760)
MALAWI(1,014)
N
500 km
© P.J. Ashton
100200300400500600700800900
10001250150020002500
Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)
100200300400500600700800900
10001250150020002500
Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)
NAMIBIA(254) BOTSWANA
(400)
SOUTH AFRICA(497)
ZAMBIA(1,011)
ZIMBABWE(652)
ANGOLA(1,050)
D. R. C.(1,534) TANZANIA
(937)
MOZAMBIQUE(969)
SWAZILAND(788)
LESOTHO(760)
MALAWI(1,014)
N
500 km
NN
500 km500 km
© P.J. Ashton
SA has a water constrained economy
In 2004 we had allocated 98% of the
national water resource at a high
assurance of supply
The significance is that SA has generally
lost its dilution capacity Propelling water
quality management to a national strategic
priority
With linkages to energy, food
security and human health
Years
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
20
40
80
60
Wat
er D
eman
d (1
09 m3 y
r1 )(b
illio
n m
³/yr
¹) Highest water use estimate
Lowest water use estimate
Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology)
Total surface resources (existing technology)
Q x F = Y Q = volume of water
available at national level
at a high assurance of
supply
Y = volume of water needed
at national level at a high
assurance of supply to
sustain the economy
F = Flux value of water
If Flux value of water = 1.7
38 x 1.7 = 64.6
Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (200:19)
Our Management Problem is...
• Water is a flux, but we manage it as if it were a stock.
• If we can recycle our national resource once, then we double the national stock.
• The management objective should be to get the F value > 1 and ideally = 2.
• Return flow management is so bad that the Flux value is currently about .8
• 38 x .8 = 30.4 (This is our problem).
However ...
• Beware of unintended consequences ...
• EDC’s
• Partially metabolized medication
• Microcystin
• We can never forget about our historic legacy ...
• The Externalization of Costs as a legacy issue
Microcystin Contamination
Death caused by Cyanobacteria bloom partially arising as a result of attempts to neutralize acidic
water (AMD) from the coal mining industry.
This means that environmental remediation for AMD is not as simple as we thought it would be.
Microcystin Benchmark
Finland’s worst case is +- 10 ug/l
USA’s worst case is +- 60 ug/l
RSA is currently at 10,000 ug/l
The biochemistry of Microcystin was described in 1985 – it is chemically similar to Rinkhals venom – but no
significant public domain research is being done on the linkage between
chronic exposure and human health
This is a looming national crisis of
note!
Externalization of Costs Model
Value
Time
Dev Cost
Revenue
V1
V2
Profit
Mine Closure
T1
Remediation Cost
Magnitude at Closure
T2
Externalized Costs
© Adler et al., 2007
Balance Sheet Items
Off-Balance Sheet Items
Our National Dilemma is ...
• We either increase the value of Q ... • Or we lower our economic growth
aspirations ... (decrease the value of Y)• Or we increase the value of F ...• This is technology and capital intensive, so
we need to reinvent relationships between public and private sectors & environment
• In short we need a new social contract between water, energy and people.
A New Social Contract?
• Management of return flow is now VITAL• Increase the F value to the target of 1.7 by
2035 if we accept a low growth scenario.• Vigorous public debate about the Energy –
Water – Food Security – Climate Change – Human Health nexus....
• Historic legacy issues HAVE to be dealt with ...
• Corporations as Social Entrepreneurs
Cuvelai
Kunene
Zambezi
Limpopo
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Orange Maputo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Okavango/Makgadikgadi
Congo
Nile
Lake Chad
Namibia
Botswana
SouthAfrica
Congo (DRC)
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambique
Angola
250
500
0
Kilometres
N
Rovuma
South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top
twenty countries in the world in terms of the
numbers of dams built (WCD 2000)
Dams and hydraulic
inf’structure in Southern
Africa
© P Ashton
Clearly what we did in the past to manage our water scarcity constraints to development cannot be extrapolated into
the future – we can no longer use today’s science based on yesterday’s
experiences to solve tomorrow’s problems.
A Key Element of the New Social Contract ...
• Acid mine drainage ...• Estimated decant from Wits goldfields is in
order of 345 Mpd (exact value unknown)• Current decant from Harmony = ±35 Mpd• Rest will happen in the next decade• It is radioactive, toxic and highly acidic• It is an emotive issue ... • When we solve AMD we can use mine voids
for strategic storage ... So it is vital
Conclusion• Water quality management will need a new
strategic paradigm if we are to grow our economy.
• National Water Quality Science, Technology and Policy Support Program– National Council of Provinces has already
accepted this
• Q x F = Y (38 x 2 = 76) • Clever companies will re-invent themselves
and base their future viability on a New Social Contract
Thank You
Q x F = Y
F = 1.7 by 2035
