The Coming Age of Water

Dr. Anthony Turton

Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd

bronwyn@speakersinc.co.za

www.anthonyturton.com

© AR Turton, 2009

Layout of Presentation• What is the current status of water in South Africa?

– The Thunder Graph• How will this affect business?• What we need to do about it to ensure stable

economic growth in future.– Water as a Stock vs Flux debate.

• Call for the establishment of a Collaborative Business Partnership in Water.

• Conclusion

South Africa’s Resource Constraints to Development are ...

• Energy ...

• Water ...

• Our energy constraint is defined by water.

• The sulphur cycle is of particular importance.

• In a future scenario where we burn more coal, but possibly with less precipitation, what will happen to acid rain?

• Water quality is a national problem ...

What is the Current Status of Water in South Africa?

• 1966 Commission of Enquiry into Water Matters made some startling predictions.

• This Commission elevated the management of water to a national strategic level.

• This was mostly ignored when the National Water Act was promulgated.

• Today we face significant water constraints to our national economic growth.

• DWAF is being restructured out of functional existence to our combined peril.

• This could have unintended consequences.

Years

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

20

40

80

60

Wat

er D

eman

d (1

09 m3 y

r1 )(b

illio

n m

³/yr

¹) Highest water use estimate

Lowest water use estimate

Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology)

Total surface resources (existing technology)

Q x F = Y Q = volume of water

available at national level

at a high assurance of

supply

Y = volume of water needed

at national level at a high

assurance of supply to

sustain the economy

F = Flux value of water

Flux value of water = 1.7

38 x 1.7 = 64.6

Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19)

38 x .8 = 30.4

This is our problemNote: SA’s available National Stock is ± 33

Km³, which is 66% of the MAR (50 Km³).

So we need to understand the water resource management problematique in the context of salt loads.

It is not water scarcity that destroyed ancient irrigation civilizations, but rather a salts build-up.

Managing salts-loads is a technical challenge, but it also poses business risk for a variety of reasons

Transboundary River Basins in AfricaAs a result of our colonial legacy…

Continental Africa has 47 sovereign states…

Sharing 63 transboundary river basins…

Covering 61% of the surface area…

In which 77% of the human population live…

Containing 93% of the total water…

Precipitation

Evaporation

Streamflow

Africa’s fundamental development constraint is the conversion of precipitation (MAP) to runoff (MAR).

Which means that we need a combination of infrastructure and ingenuity to create Assurance of Supply.

What is Southern Africa’s Fundamental Water Resource Management Problem?

© O’Keeffe et al

Because we have insufficient base-flow for reliable development so we need to build

storage and transfer infrastructure

And this is the basic problem

Southern Africa in general has the lowest conversion ratio of MAP to

MAR in the world

High Variability Reduces Hydrological Security

Exacerbating our fundamental development constraint further…

Natural variability in streamflow reduces hydrological security

Hydrological insecurity.

100200300400500600700800900

10001250150020002500

Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)

0 250 500 km

NAMIBIA

BOTSWANA

SOUTHAFRICA

ZAMBIA

ZIMBABWE

ANGOLA

D. R. C. TANZANIA

MOZABIQUE

SWAZILAND

LESOTHO

MALAWI

= 860 mm isohyet

= World average rainfall

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL

SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm

© Pete Ashton

The three most economically developed countries in SADC are on the “wrong” side of the global average.

Water allocation in those three countries has reached a point where future economic development is potentially constrained.

In South Africa, 97.3% of the streamflow was allocated at a high assurance of supply by 2004.

So we are on a transition from IWRM to Integrated Salts Management instead. With water service

delivery now becoming a major (and sensitive) issue.

We have simply reached the limit of the resource so what we do next will determine our future.

Cuvelai

Kunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Pungué

Buzi

Save-Runde

Orange Maputo

Incomati

Umbeluzi

Okavango/Makgadikgadi

Congo

Nile

Lake Chad

Namibia

Botswana

SouthAfrica

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambique

Angola

250

500

0

Kilometres

N

Rovuma

South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top

twenty countries in the world in terms of the

numbers of dams built (WCD 2000)

Dams and hydraulic

inf’structure in Southern

Africa

© P Ashton

We have simply built as many dams as we can, trapping ± 66% of the current streamflow, and we cannot build too many more for a variety of technical reasons.

So previous solutions are not future solutions – we now need to become creative and do something else – which is where our current non-investment in ingenuity will become a business risk.

Cuvelai

Kunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Pungué

Buzi

Save-Runde

Orange Maputo

Incomati

Umbeluzi

Okavango/Makgadikgadi

Congo

Nile

Lake Chad

Namibia

Botswana

SouthAfrica

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambique

Angola

250

500

0

Kilometres

N

Rovuma

WATER TRANSFER

S IN SOUTHERN

AFRICA

Existing water transfer scheme

Proposed new water transfer scheme

© Pete Ashton

This represents a substantial investment in both infrastructure and ingenuity, converging to

provide a high Assurance of Supply

on which future economic growth and

political stability is predicated, but poses

new risks not yet being addressed.

Heavily Utilized Water

Resources in Southern

AfricaWater resources approaching “closure” – very little left to allocate for off-channel uses

Water resources under increased pressure – need to ensure closer co-operation with neighbouring states

Cuvelai

Cunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Pungué

Buzi

Save-Runde

Orange Maputo

Incomati

Umbeluzi

Okavango/Makgadikgadi

Congo

Nile

Lake Chad

Namibia

Botswana

SouthAfrica

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambique

Angola

250

500

0

Kilometres

N

Rovuma

© Pete Ashton

How will this impact Business??• If we regard water as a stock, then we are in

serious trouble because by 2004 we had already allocated 98% of the national resource at a high assurance of supply level (National Water Resource Strategy).

• BUT, if we regard water as a flux then we can continue to grow or national economy in a sustainable way.

• This will need a fundamental paradigm shift by all significant stakeholders.

Water as a Stock

Business

ProcessEnergy

Raw Materials

Water Effluent

Product

Wealth

In this model water is subjected to a linear process degrading in utility as it passes through the “black box”.

So water as a stock is the product of linear thinking in which the finite resource is used and then discarded.

SA’s National Stock is ± 33 Km³, which is 66% of the MAR (50 Km³).

Water as a Flux

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of network thinking in which it is cascaded around the economy with the number of new process cycles limited only by our ingenuity and technological capacity as a nation.

In this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource.

Our National Flux is 66 Km³, if we recycle only once.

Key Water Issues• The South African economy is

fundamentally water constrained.• We have reached that threshold and are now

moving into an unknown era where Assurance of Supply will increasingly become a business risk.

• We need new partnerships between Government, Organized Business and the National Science Councils to develop and resource a fresh Strategic Vision.

• Business cannot sit idle any longer.

What do you need to do?• Organized business should start to understand

water as a business risk.• A Collaborative Business Partnership in Water is

a way to go – based on Business Against Crime. (Avoid the blame game).

• Companies must understand business risks in terms of input, process and output and then develop mitigation strategies for each of these sets of issues.

• Risk mitigation is scale dependent.

Conclusion• Water resource management will need a

new strategic paradigm if we are to grow our economy.

• National Water Quality Science, Technology and Policy Support Program– National Council of Provinces has already

accepted this.

• Q x F = Y (38 x 2 = 76) • Become part of the Solution.• Yes we can!

Thank You

Q x F = Y

F = 1.7 by 2035