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8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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GreenATPGreen Applications & Tipping Points
Presentation at theUCLA Anderson School of Business
by
Michael P. Totten
Chief Advisor, Green Economies
Conservation InternationalJune 09-10, 2011
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MassPovertyCollapsing
EcosystemsClimatedisasters
MassExtinction
WHY?
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UnprecedentedChallenges of
Historical & GlobalMagnitude
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More absolute poor than any timein human history 1 out of 4
[alongside mo re extreme weal th than ever]
M
asspo
ver
ty
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UnendingResource
Wars &Conflicts
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Species
extinction
Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate
Extinctions
Human population
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C
lima
te
C
ata
stro
phe
s
900ppm
Parts
perMillionCO2
Past planetary mass extinctionstriggered by high CO2 >550ppm
TODAY: 387PPM
Where we will be by 2100
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O
cea
ns
Acidify
ing
55 million years since oceans as acidicbusiness-as-usual emissions growththreaten collapse of marine life food web
Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
Global Circulation Models (GCM)
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Negative Tipping Points
Source: Timothy M. Lentony , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang
Lucht , Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in
the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,www.pnas.org/.
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Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere,
and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousandsof years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of
humanity and most life on earth.
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human
extinction?
????2100
12 to 16
billion
70,000 yearsago humans
down to 2000
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Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,
and significant costs involved in counteringterrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost
of a clean environment."
a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
Martin Weitzman
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdfhttp://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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Where the world needs to go:energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008. ???
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2 TO 3% Annual AverageGross World Productcentury growth rate(~10 to 20x todays)
2105 at 2
$500 trillion GWP~$50,000 per cap# in poverty?
$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty?
$1,000 trillion GWP~$100,000 per cap# in poverty?
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GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering
GENETICS
INFORMATICS NANOTECH
AUTOROBOTICS
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While non-linear complexadaptive systems pervadeexistence, humans have a
strong propensity to thinkand act as if life is linear,uncertainty is controllable,the future free of surprises,
and planning is predictableand compartmentalizedinto silos.
Normal distributions areassumed, fat-tail futuresare ignored.
E l f t i ti id tifi d i h f 3
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Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames
Natural system
Technical system
Social system
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Stored
Released
Variety Sameness
The adaptive cycle - a theory of the relationship of
transformation to resilience
Source: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
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Can WEAvert Multiple Catastrophes,
Avoid Irreversible Consequences,and Make the Shift to
Healthy, Sustainable Economies?
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G tti t
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OR, Getting to
Maybe
via Emer ent Collaboration Networks
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Greening EconomiesLocally to Globally
A Need for GreenATPGreen Apps & Tipping Points
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Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,
Harness ing the Busy Bees
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The Universe of human activityin Green Apps & Tipping Points GreenATP
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GreenAPPsUser built
User driven
GreenATP
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greening city economics 24/7
by bit s & wits b i ll i f i & i
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b i ll ions form ing & swarm ing
know ledge, fo r wel l-being ,
value, p rosper i ty & poster ity
Green
ATP
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User-built Public asset
Open source, Global access
GreenATP
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Greenest APPs via
ranking algorithms
More GreenerAPPs
collaboratively filtered
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HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERS
Source: Albert-Lzl Barabsi & Eric Bonabeau, Scale-Free Networks, Scientific American, May 2003
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A change in culture
A change in laws
A change in resource
distribution/availability
A change in strategies
A change in procedures
A change in resourcedistribution/availability
A change in conversationA change in routine
A change in resource
commitment or influence
A change in heart
A change of habitsA change of ambition
Institutional level
Organizational level
Network/Group level
Individual level
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wa er
food
energy
mobile knowbilit
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BuildingsUtilities
WHAT?Mobility
Products
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LearningSharing[EPPs]
FinanceRegulation
W
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Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to becomeclimate positive and revenue positive
Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green PowerEcosystemProtection
Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS
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1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCYPursue vigorous, rigorous & continuousimprovements that reap monetary savings, ancillarybenefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &resources)
2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMSAdd conservation carbon offset options to portfoliothat deliver triple benefits (climate protection,biodiversity preservation, and promotion ofcommunity sustainable development)
3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELSSelect only verifiable green power/fuels that are
climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slowpoverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies
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Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
E. Matthews et al. The Wei ht of Nations 2000 www.wri.or /
Closing the Loop Reducing Use of Virgin Resources &
Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients
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Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses ondesign of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or
pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)
R d i P d t E i t l F t i t
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Reducing a Products Environmental Footprint
Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular products environmentaleffects or footprint are reduced over time through incremental improvements insustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years2009, 2025 and 2050.
Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008
CO Ab t t t ti l & t f 2020
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Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is55-80 billion per year between 20102020 for
developing countries and4050 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
Breakdown by abatement type 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) 6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply
N d t H lt D f t ti & E t D t ti
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IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO214 million hectares burned each
year emitting 5 to 8 billion tonsCO2 per year. More emissions
than world transport system of
cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships
USGHGlevels
Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction
O t i CO d ti t b Cli t P iti
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IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO25 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year
in mitigation services available inpoor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
annually ; and saving better-off
nations billions of dollars.
USGHGlevels
Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive
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High Quality Multi-Benefit
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$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservationarea in Peru.
Will prevent more than 900,000 tons ofCO2 from being released into theatmosphere.
Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Carbon Standards.
Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date
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$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
CCS REDD
Geological storage (CCS) vs
Ecological storage (REDD)Carbon Mitigation Cost
U.S. fossil Electricity CO2mitigation cost annually
(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
~$100billion
~3 per kWh
~$18 billion
~0.5 per kWh
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Reduced Emissions Deforestation
& Degradation (REDD)
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
0
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7 50 per ton CO2
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y
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions
Tropical Deforestation 2007
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions
$7.50 per ton CO2
1/2 cent per kWh
$18 billion/yr REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
A win-win-win
outcome
A win-win-win
outcome
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In the wake of 14
million hectares oftropical forestsburned down eachyear, some 16 million
species populationsgo extinct.
Endemic speciescomprising the
natural laboratory ofbiocomplexity withfuture values yet tobe assessed ordiscovered.
Irreversible Loss
Bioprospecting biological wealth using
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One-quarter all medical drugsused in developed world fromplants.
Cortisone and first oralcontraceptives derived from
Central American yam species Pacific yew in western US
yielded anti-cancer drug taxol
Vincristine from the RosyPeriwinkle in Madagascar
Drug to prevent blood clottingfrom snake venom
Active ingredient aspirinsynthesized from willow trees.
Bioprospecting biological wealth usingbioinformatic tools from field to lab
Bioprospecting biological wealth using
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Biomolecules prospected
from different bio-resourcesfor pesticidal, therapeutic andother agriculturally importantcompounds
Biomolecules for Industrial andMedicinal Use
Novel Genes/Promoters toaddress Biotic and AbioticStress
Genes for Transcription Factors
Metabolic Engineering Pathways
Nutritional Enhancement
Bioavailability of Elements
Microbial Biodiversity
Bioprospecting biological wealth usingbiotechnology tools from field to lab
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Ultra-low Carbon
multi-beneficialEnergy, Mobility &Utility Service Options
Attributes of Green Energy Mobility &
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1. Economically affordable
2. Safe
3. Clean
4. Risk is low and manageable
5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable
7. Environmentally benign
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures
10. Endogenous learning capacity
11. Robust experience curve for reducing negativeexternalities & amplifying positive externalities
12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption
Dozen Desirable riteriaincluding poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
through the entire life cycle?
through the entire lifespan?
from financial and price volatility?
to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?
adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
low recovery cost and lost time?Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?
scalable production possibilities?
off radar of terrorists or military planners?
Attributes of Green Energy, Mobility &Utility Energy Services
A Defensible Green
Uninteresting military target
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A Defensible GreenEnergy Criteria Scoring
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste
power
Geo-
thermal
Nat
gas
Bio-
fuels
Oil
imports
Coal
CCS
nuclearTar
sand
Oil
shale
Coal to
liquids
Coal
noCCS
Promote
CHP +biowastes
Economically Affordable
Safe
Clean
Secure
Resilient & flexible
Ecologically sustainableEnvironmentally benign
Fails gracefully, not catastro
Rebounds easily from failures
Endogenous learning capacity
Robust experience curves
Universal symbol for Efficiency
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eta
SHRINKINGfootprints through Continuous innovation
Universal symbol for Efficiency
The best thingabout low-
hanging fruit
is that it keepsgrowing back.
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Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 Reduction
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Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5thAnnual California Climate ChangeConference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 Reduction
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.htmlhttp://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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PassiveHaus
Beyond Zero Net
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Public library North Carolina
Heinz Foundation
Green Building, PA
Oberlin CollegeEcology Center,
Ohio
The Costs andFinancial Benefits
of Green Buildings,A Report toCalifornias
Sustainable
Building TaskForce, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700 perm2 net present
value
Beyond Zero Net
Energy Buildings
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Daylighting could displace 100s GWsLighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial buildingelectricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-timelighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars inavoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
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High-E Windows displacing pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskanpipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), aswell as accrue over $15 billion per yearofsavings on energy bills.
Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)
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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycledind cogen
end-useefficiency
CCS
y ( p )
US currentaverage
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2 47Coal-f ired CO2 em iss ions displaced
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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
end-use
efficiency
32
23
1: 93 kg
CO2/$
2 p
per do l lar spent on electr ical serv ices
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
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New York
California
USA minus CA & NYPer CapitalElectricityConsumption 165 GWCoalPowerPlants
Californians have
net savings of$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
Cali fornia 30 year proof o f IRP value in promotinglower cost ef fic iency over new power plants or
hydro d ams, and low er GHG emissions .
Cal i forn ia signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to sh are IRP expert ise (now u nderway in Jiang su ).
Th St
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CHANGE
The StoneAge did
not endbecause itran out of
stonesThe Fossil
Fuel Age
wont endbecause itran out of
fossils
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
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SUN FUSION PHOTONS
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhereld id ti l f billi f
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Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, neverfailing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving
economic activity
Annual global energy consumption by humans
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Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on NationalPetroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
Oil
Gas
Uranium
Coal
ANNUAL Wind
Hydro
Photosynthesis
ANNUAL Solar Energy
Annual global energy consumption by humans
SOLAR PHOTONS
ACCRUED IN A MONTH
EXCEED THE EARTHS
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
Harnessing 1/7500th of the Suns
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Harnessing 1/7500 of the Sun sdelivered photons is technically,
economically & financially feasible.Scientists confident that 10X thisamount can be harnessed this century.
GreenATP can drive transformational
innovations essential for shifting to asolar powered global economy --
buyers, incentives, financing, training,
R&D, standards, training, policies, etc
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In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban areaon roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90
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90% of Americas current
electricity could be supplied withPV systems built in the brown-fields the estimated 2+ millionhectares of abandoned industrialsites that exist in our nations
cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning UpBrownfieldSites w/PV solar
total US electricity from brownfields
Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs
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Source: Dave Miller, President, DuPont Electronics & Communications, GW Solar Institute Symposium,
The Critical Role of Materials in the Solar PV Industry, April 19, 2010
Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs
Innovative Solar Financing Options
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g pLong-Term, Low-Cost Financing
Solar power beats thermal plants within theirt ti l d ti t b i
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Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
construction lead timeat zero carbon price
China Economics of Commercial BIPV
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SunSlate Building-IntegratedPhotovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Material
Replaced
Economic
Measure
Beijing Shanghai
PolishedStone
NPV ($)BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$18,5862.33
1
+$14,2372.14
1
Aluminum
NPV ($)BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$15,3731.89
2
+$11,0241.70
2
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing andShanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China , July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Economics of Commercial BIPVhina Economics of Commercial BIPV
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Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because itcaptures both energy savings and savings fromdisplacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
MW
Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-200821GW
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MW
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal power 2 million MW
40% annual growth rate
Doubling
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To an energy
bill half thisamount, and75% solarservices.
this century, 75% from fossil fuels
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
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120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
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Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of allpersonal motorized transportation in China.
y
$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWhtwice as expensive as solar PV electricity
Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds
http://www.grist.org/article/charging-uphttp://www.grist.org/article/charging-uphttp://www.grist.org/article/charging-uphttp://www.grist.org/article/charging-up8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
PV NUCLEAR
Billion $ 2008 constant
Civilian Nuclear Power
(1948 2009)
vs.
Solar Photovoltaics
(1975-2009)
$4.2
$85
g
What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?
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0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2009 2013 2016 2020 2023 2027 2031 2034 2038 2041 2045 2049 2052 2056
Solar PV Growth @ 20% per year
>10X total world energy consumption than in 2009
15000 GW total world consumption in 2009
GigaWatts(GW)
2071
@
15%
2103
@
10%
Rate Largely Driven by Incentives, Finance Innovations, Public Policies & Regulations
2032@
40%
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GIS Mapping the Solar
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Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
Potential of Urban Rooftops
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Catalyzing solar smart poly-grids
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Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
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Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuouslycalculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of
urban solar anel locations based on multi-criteria tar ets.
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Wind Trillion$
Figures of Merit95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
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Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 3MW wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area
37,500 mi2
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40% USA total GHG emissions
Wind Farm Royalties Could Doublef / h i i h 30 l l d
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The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70%
of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4
to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains ruralcommunities, while also enabling one of
worlds largest restorations of native
prairie ecosystems
How?
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Wind Royalties Sustainable source ofR l F d R h I
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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams Robert Nuclear and Alternative Ener Su l O tions for an Environmentall Constrained WorldA ril 9 2001 htt ://www.nci.or /
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Montana South DakotaGREAT PLAINS
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Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Nebraska
Iowa
Oklahoma
Texas
WIND RESOURCES
in varying stages of digital
Apps --technical, trainingecological, economic,financial assessment,mapping & mashups,
visualization, installation,
operation & post-production options
Potential Synergisms
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y g
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Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s
Again this century but worse China
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Intensive farming
and grazingpractices anddeforestation inChina have led to
more frequent duststorms, like this onein 2001 that sweptaerosol particlesinto the Great Lakesregion of the US,and even left asprinkling in theAlps mountains in
Europe.
Opps
Offshore Wind Trillion$
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Offshore Wind Trillion$
Offshore Wind potential several times greater than total world energy consumption
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Brazil Offshore Wind
China Offshore Wind
USA Offshore Wind >7 meters/second
Announced turbine developments
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Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
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Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-batteryturbine spacing
Wind turbinesground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, StanfordUniversity, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
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Orangutan habitat destructionfor biodiesel oil palm plantations
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Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Mississippi River Delta
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Instead, Use Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock forBiofuel Production through Algae Systems
Yangtze River Pearl River
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Shallow production area
30x less land area than crop
biofuels for same yields
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Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email:[email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
Locally diverse algae produce biomass (Biomimicry)
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Biofuel Production from AlgalT f S bb Bi
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Algaebutanol
biodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Productiongallons per acre [ha per year]
1520
500
----
2000
----
100
+
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
[3,770 gal/ha/yr ][5,000 gal/ha/yr ]
[1,250 gal/ha/yr ]
[250 gal/ha/yr ]
Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
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2 billion people lack safe water
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Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
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p y g p
dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
A new water disinfector for thedeveloping worlds poor
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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p g p
Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1
ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1
m3)
Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water
Reliable, Mature components
Can treat unpressurized water
Rapid throughput: 12 seconds Low maintenance: 4x per year
No overdose risk
Fail-safe
DESIGN CRITERIA
Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
WaterHealth Intl device
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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WaterHealth International
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The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of
pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and
Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per
person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation ofour systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses ofoperating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thuscreating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified waterto outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the userfees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
FOOD
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf8/12/2019 Totten GreenATP: green Apps and Tipping Points UCLA Anderson Business School 06-09-11
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FOOD
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starving
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At the same time, climate-triggered weather disasters are expected
to severely reduce global agricultural yields by 20 to 40 %.Projected reductions in yield in some African countries could be as
much as 50% by 2020.
Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?
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By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of
land may be required for agriculture.Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium growth
bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact
ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
Tradeoffs?
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Using low-input, high-yield micro-farming methods cangrow complete vegetarian diets on 1 hectare of landsufficient for 100 people.
Urban food production worldwide is a key climatemitigation and adaptation strategy, enhancing food security
and system resilience against ever-increasing threat ofsudden supply disruptions and price spikes.
Urban farming for many populations around the world isliterally an insurance hedge against the threat of persistent
hunger.
FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY
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Currently, 15% of food is grown in urban areas. Many citiescould grow complete food diets on 10% of urban land area.
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COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS
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Using Green Apps & Tipping Points forGrowing Food for Self, Family, and Income
o e
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Knowbility
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Complete the Streets
Climate mitigation actions
Web-based routes
Bicycle promotion programs
Walkability city programs
Geographic Wikis
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Source: Reid Royer Priedhorsky and Loren G. Terveen, The Value of Geographic Wikis, 2010
Handhelds can enable &
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Handhelds can enable &enoble citizens,
consumers, families,neighborhoods,communities, regions,nations and the world
human society towards
practical wisdom
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Barefoot Womens Solar Engineering Assoc.
Characteristics of crowdsourcing processes
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Source: David Geiger et al, Managing the Crowd: Towards a Taxonomy of Crowdsourcing Processes, Proceedings of the
Seventeenth Americas Conference on Information Systems, Detroit, Aug. 4th-7th 2011
19 distinct process types identified from46 crowdsourcing
examples. Subsequent cluster analysis shows general patternsamong these types and indicates a link to certain applications of
crowdsourcing. 96 theoretically possible process types (for the
current dimensions) have been identified so far.
The Collective Intelligence Genome
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FINDINGS
Collective Intelligence (CI) has already been proven to work, and CI
systems can be designed and managed to fit specific needs.
CI building blocks, or genes, can be recombined to create the right
kind of system.
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
The Collective Intelligence Genome
THE LEADING QUESTION
How can you get crowds to do what your business needs done?
Successful Commercial & Social Collective Intelligence Web Sites
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Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
The Crowd gene is most useful in situations where the resources
When the Crowd gene is useful
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and skills needed to perform an activity are distributed widely or
reside in places that are not known in advance.
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Innovative Collaborative Knowledge Networks, http://www.ickn.org/innovation.html
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Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
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Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
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Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
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Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
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Developing a detailed decision tree
Flowchart for the design of a CI system
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This approach then asks a series of sequential,
logical questions, the answers of which form
specific guidelines for all CI systems:1. Can activities be divided into pieces? Are
necessary resources widely distributed or in
unknown locations?
2. Are there adequate incentives to
participate?
3. What kind of activity needs to be done?4. Can the activity be divided into small,
independent pieces?
5. Are only a few good (best) solutions
needed?
6. Does the entire group need to abide by the
same decision?7. Are money or resources required to
exchange hands or motivate decision?
Source: Noah Radford, How to Build a Collective Intelligence Platform to Crowdsource
Almost Anything, August 21, 2010, http://news.noahraford.com
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Noah Raford, When Collective
Intelligence Genes are Useful,
2010, www.noahraford.com
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Noah Raford, When Collective Intelligence Genes are Useful, 2010, www.noahraford.com
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GreenATP
60month
Goal
GreenATP
Green ATP Operating Budget
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THE TEAMANNUAL
(fully loaded)
MONTHLY
(fully loaded)
60 MONTHS
(fully loaded)
Chief Persuader $ 200,000 $ 16,667 $ 1,000,000
Chief Networker $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Chief Interfacer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Chief Engineer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000Finance (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000
Legal (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000
Support (2) $ 30,000 $ 2,500 $ 150,000
Technical equipmentand services $ 80,000 $ 6,667 $ 400,000
Travel & Promotion $ 25,000 $ 2,083 $ 125,000
TOTAL $ 805,000 $ 67,083 $ 4,025,000
How much is a unique visitorworth on the Internet?
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Depends on who you are. Amazon (e-commerce) is generating $189 per user. Google
(search) is generating $24 per user. Facebook (social networking) is only generating $4
per user according to this chart from JP Morgan's Imran Khan.
worth on the Internet?
Potential Growth Scenarios
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INKIND assumes 1 hour of Volunteer time per week per end user valued at $9/hr
PRODUCT purchases assumes $100 per end user per year
SERVICE transaction earnings assumes 2 percent of Product purchases
END USERENGAGEMENT
SCENARIOS
1 hour ofVolunteer
time/week @$9/hour value(million $ per
year)
Site Green
ProductPurchases(million $per year)
2%Service
earningson
purchases(million $)
TOTALservice
earnings+volunteer
time (million$ per year)
TOTAL
ServiceEarnings
only (million$ per year)
Outcomes?
100,000,000 $ 46,800 $ 10,000 $ 1,000 $ 47,800 $ 1,000WILD
SUCCESS
10,000,000 $ 4,680 $ 1,000 $ 100 $ 4,780 $ 100VIRAL
SUCCESS
1,000,000 $ 468 $ 100 $ 10 $ 478 $ 10 SUCCESS
100,000 $ 47 $ 10 $ 1 $ 48 $ 1BUDGET
SURPLUS
10,000 $ 5 $ 1 $ 0 $ 5 $ 0.1
BUDGET
DEFICIT
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Green
ATP