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To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights r Chapter 8 - Chapter 8 - Capacity Capacity

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 8

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To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chapter 8 -Chapter 8 -

CapacityCapacity

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

UtilizationUtilization

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = Average output rate

Peak capacity

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = 50

100

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = x 100% = 50%50

100

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = x 100% = 50%50

100

Utilizationeffective = Average output rate

Effective capacity

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = x 100% = 50%50

100

Utilizationeffective = 50

45

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = x 100% = 50%50

100

Utilizationeffective = x 100% = 111%50

45

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Utilizationpeak = 50%

Utilizationeffective = 111%

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Capacity cushionpeak = 100% – 50% = 50%

Capacity cushioneffective = 100% – 111% = – 11%

Utilizationpeak = 50%

Utilizationeffective = 111%

Figure 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Capacity cushioneffective = 100% – Utilizationeffective

Utilizationpeak = 50%

Utilizationeffective = 111%

Capacity cushionpeak = 100% – Utilizationpeak

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Capacity cushionpeak = 100% - 50%

Capacity cushioneffective = 100% – 111%

Utilizationpeak = 50%

Utilizationeffective = 111%

Capacity cushionpeak = 100% – 50%

Example 8.1

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UtilizationUtilization

Fabrication can make 100 engines/dayManagement wants 45 engines/dayCurrently producing 50 engines/day

Capacity cushionpeak = 100% – 50% = 50%

Capacity cushioneffective = 100% – 111% = – 11%

Utilizationpeak = 50%

Utilizationeffective = 111%

Example 8.1

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Capacity BottlenecksCapacity Bottlenecks

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Capacity BottlenecksCapacity Bottlenecks

Inputs To customers

(a) Operation 2 a bottleneck

50/hr

1 2 3

200/hr 200/hr

Figure 8.2

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(b) All operations bottlenecks

2 31Inputs To customers

200/hr 200/hr 200/hr

Capacity BottlenecksCapacity Bottlenecks

Figure 8.2

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Theory of ConstraintsTheory of Constraints1. Identify the system

bottleneck(s)2. Exploit the bottleneck(s)3. Subordinate all other

decisions to step 24. Elevate the bottleneck(s)5. Do not let inertia

set in

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Output rate (patients per week)

Economies and Economies and Diseconomies of ScaleDiseconomies of Scale

Figure 8.3

Av

era

ge

un

it c

os

t (d

olla

rs p

er

pat

ien

t)

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

250-bed hospital

Output rate (patients per week)

Economies and Economies and Diseconomies of ScaleDiseconomies of Scale

Figure 8.3

Av

era

ge

un

it c

os

t (d

olla

rs p

er

pat

ien

t)

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Economies and Economies and Diseconomies of ScaleDiseconomies of Scale

250-bed hospital 500-bed

hospital

Output rate (patients per week)

Figure 8.3

Av

era

ge

un

it c

os

t (d

olla

rs p

er

pat

ien

t)

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Economies and Economies and Diseconomies of ScaleDiseconomies of Scale

250-bed hospital 500-bed

hospital

Output rate (patients per week)

Economies of scale

Figure 8.3

Av

era

ge

un

it c

os

t (d

olla

rs p

er

pat

ien

t)

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Economies and Economies and Diseconomies of ScaleDiseconomies of Scale

250-bed hospital

750-bed hospital 500-bed

hospital

Output rate (patients per week)

Economies of scale

Figure 8.3

Av

era

ge

un

it c

os

t (d

olla

rs p

er

pat

ien

t)

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Economies and Economies and Diseconomies of ScaleDiseconomies of Scale

Av

era

ge

un

it c

os

t (d

olla

rs p

er

pat

ien

t)

Output rate (patients per week)

250-bed hospital

750-bed hospital 500-bed

hospital

Diseconomies of scale

Economies of scale

Figure 8.3

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Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

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Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Time

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

Figure 8.4

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Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Planned unused capacity

Time

(a) Expansionist strategy

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

Figure 8.4

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Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Planned unused capacity

Time

(a) Expansionist strategy

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

Figure 8.4

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Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Time between increments

Capacity increment

Planned unused capacity

Time

(a) Expansionist strategy

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

Figure 8.4

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Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Time

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

(b) Wait-and-see strategy

Figure 8.4

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Time

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

(b) Wait-and-see strategy

Planned use of short-term options

Figure 8.4

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity StrategiesCapacity Strategies

Time between increments

Capacity increment

Time

Forecast of capacity required

Ca

pac

ity

Planned use of short-term options

(b) Wait-and-see strategy

Figure 8.4

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Linking Capacity and Other Decisions

• Competitive Priorities• Quality Management• Capital Intensity• Resource Flexibility• Inventory• Scheduling

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEstimate Capacity RequirementsEstimate Capacity Requirements

Item Client X Client Y

Annual demand forecast (copies) 2000.00 6000.00Standard processing time (hour/copy) 0.50 0.70Average lot size (copies per report) 20.00 30.00Standard setup time (hours) 0.25 0.40

Example 8.2

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEstimate Capacity RequirementsEstimate Capacity Requirements

Item Client X Client Y

Annual demand forecast (copies) 2000.00 6000.00Standard processing time (hour/copy) 0.50 0.70Average lot size (copies per report) 20.00 30.00Standard setup time (hours) 0.25 0.40

[Dp + (D/Q)s]product 1 + ... + [Dp + (D/Q)s]product n

N[1 – (C/100)]M =

Example 8.2

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEstimate Capacity RequirementsEstimate Capacity Requirements

Item Client X Client Y

Annual demand forecast (copies) 2000.00 6000.00Standard processing time (hour/copy) 0.50 0.70Average lot size (copies per report) 20.00 30.00Standard setup time (hours) 0.25 0.40

[2000(0.5) + (2000/20)(0.25)]client X + [6000(0.7) + (6000/30)(0.4)]client Y

(250 days/year)(1 shift/day)(8 hours/shift)(1.0 – 15/100)M =

Example 8.2

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEstimate Capacity RequirementsEstimate Capacity Requirements

Item Client X Client Y

Annual demand forecast (copies) 2000.00 6000.00Standard processing time (hour/copy) 0.50 0.70Average lot size (copies per report) 20.00 30.00Standard setup time (hours) 0.25 0.40

M = [2000(0.5) + (2000/20)(0.25)]client X + [6000(0.7) + (6000/30)(0.4)]client Y

(250 days/year)(1 shift/day)(8 hours/shift)(1.0 – 15/100)

Example 8.2

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEstimate Capacity RequirementsEstimate Capacity Requirements

Item Client X Client Y

Annual demand forecast (copies) 2000.00 6000.00Standard processing time (hour/copy) 0.50 0.70Average lot size (copies per report) 20.00 30.00Standard setup time (hours) 0.25 0.40

M = = 3.12 4 machines5305

1700

Example 8.2

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsIdentify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Kitchen Capacity Gaps

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Kitchen Capacity Gaps

Year 1: 90,000 – 80,000 = 10,000

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Kitchen Capacity Gaps

Year 1: 90,000 – 80,000 = 10,000Year 2: 100,000 – 80,000 = 20,000Year 3: 110,000 – 80,000 = 30,000Year 4: 120,000 – 80,000 = 40,000Year 5: 130,000 – 80,000 = 50,000

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Dining Room Capacity Gaps

Year 1:Year 2:Year 3:Year 4:Year 5:

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Dining Room Capacity Gaps

Year 1: no gaps Year 2: no gaps Year 3:Year 4:Year 5:

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Dining Room Capacity Gaps

Year 1: no gaps Year 2: no gaps Year 3: 110,000 – 105,000 = 5,000Year 4:Year 5:

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity Decisions

Kitchen capacity = 80,000 mealsDining room capacity = 105,000 meals

Demand

Year 1: 90,000 mealsYear 2: 100,000 mealsYear 3: 110,000 mealsYear 4: 120,000 mealsYear 5: 130,000 meals

Dining Room Capacity Gaps

Year 1: no gaps Year 2: no gaps Year 3: 110,000 – 105,000 = 5,000Year 4: 120,000 – 105,000 = 15,000Year 5: 130,000 – 105,000 = 25,000

Identify Capacity GapsIdentify Capacity Gaps

Example 8.3

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEvaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEvaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives

Expand capacity to meet expected demand through Year 5

Example 8.4

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEvaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives

Expand capacity to meet expected demand through Year 5

Year Demand Cash Flow

Example 8.4

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEvaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives

Expand capacity to meet expected demand through Year 5

Year Demand Cash Flow

1 90,000 (90,000 – 80,000)2 = $20,000

Example 8.4

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEvaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives

Expand capacity to meet expected demand through Year 5

Year Demand Cash Flow

1 90,000 (90,000 – 80,000)2 = $20,0002 100,000 (100,000 – 80,000)2 = $40,0003 110,000 (110,000 – 80,000)2 = $60,0004 120,000 (120,000 – 80,000)2 = $80,0005 130,000 (130,000 – 80,000)2 = $100,000

Example 8.4

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsEvaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives

Figure 8.5

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation

TIME TO PERFORM (SECONDS)

StandardOPERATION Average Deviation

1. Review renewal application for correctness 153

2. Check file for violations and restrictions 6015

3. Process and record payment 256

4. Conduct eye test 3510

5. Photograph applicant 205

6. Issue temporary license 305

AVERAGE CUSTOMER ARRIVALTIME (PEOPLE PER MINUTE)

8:00 A.M. — 9:00 A.M. 1.259:00 A.M. — 12:00 P.M. 0.7512:00 P.M. — 1:00 P.M. 2.001:00 P.M. — 4:00 P.M. 0.75

Example 8.5

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation Figure 8.6(a)

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation Figure 8.6(b)

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsSimulationSimulation Figure 8.6(c)

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

1Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand

Low demand

High demand

High demand

1Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand

Low demand

High demand

High demand

Don’t expand

Expand1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

Don’t expand

Expand1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

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Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40)

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40) = $28

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40) = $28Small/High = $135 (0.60)

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40) = $28Small/High = $135 (0.60) = $81

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40) = $28Small/High = $135 (0.60) = $81

Small = $28 + $81 = $109

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40) = $28Small/High = $135 (0.60) = $81

Small = $28 + $81 = $109

$109$109

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Small/Low = $70 (0.40) = $28Small/High = $135 (0.60) = $81

Small = $28 + $81 = $109

$109$109

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Large/Low = $40 (0.40) = $16Large/High = $220 (0.60) = $132

Large = $16 + $132 = $148

$109$109

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Expected Payoff = Event * Event Probability

Large/Low = $40 (0.40) = $16Large/High = $220 (0.60) = $132

Large = $16 + $132 = $148

$109$109

$148$148

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

$148$148

$109$109

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

$148$148

$109$109

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

$148$148

$109$109

$148$148

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsDecision TreesDecision Trees

Low demand [0.40]

Low demand [0.40]

$70

$220

$40

$148$148

$109$109

$148$148

High demand [0.60]

High demand [0.60]

$135$135

Don’t expand

Expand$135

$90

1

2Small expansion

Large expansion

Figure 8.7

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsBottleneckBottleneck Figure 8.8

To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Capacity DecisionsCapacity DecisionsBottleneckBottleneck Figure 8.8