The scale of the climate challenge

Andrew WatkinsonSchool of Environmental Sciences

University of East Anglia

a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk

A changing climate

Arctic

Europe

Asia

N America

Australasia

S America

Antarctica

Source Pages 2K Consortium 2013; Marcott et al 2013

A changing climate

Source: IPCC WGI 2013

Fossil fuel emissions• Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning decreased by 1.3% in 2009 • Emissions increased by more than 3% in 2010, approaching the high growth rates of 2000 to 2008• Growth in emissions closely follows growth in GDP

2009

USA −6.9%UK −8.6%Germany −7%Japan −11.8%Russia −8.4%

China +8%India +6.2%South Korea +1.4%

Source: Friedlinstein et al 2010, Peters et al 2012

CO

2 em

issi

ons

PgC

/yr

Global financial crisis

Asian financial crisis

Collapse of FSU

Oil crisis

US savings and loan crisis

Action: reducing emissions

Examples of global emission pathways where cumulative CO2 emissions equal 750 Gt during the time period 2010-2050 (1 Gt C = 3.67 Gt CO2). At this level, there is a 67% probability of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C.

• Energy (61.3%)• Land use (18.2%)• Industrial processes (3.4%)• Agriculture (13.5%)• Waste (3.6%)

Source

Targeting demand

FuelProduction,Extraction &TransportPowerstationTransmission

ElectricityConsumptionLight

10 50 54 120 133

Source: Kevin Anderson

Driving behaviourTraffic flow

Total distance

Source: McKinsey and Co. 2009

Managing demand: behaviour

Difficult choices

Source: UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=39987)

Carbon hot spots

Source: NHS Sustainable Development Unit

Reducing UK emissions

Source: Climate Change Committee (2010) The Fourth Carbon Budget

Electricity

Transport

Residential

Services

Industry

Other

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 2009

Transforming the energy supply

Progress?UK’s Global Emissions

Source: Barrett et al 2013: Climate Policy

Health and Social Care England Carbon Footprint

Can we do it?• Global CO2 emissions continue to grow rapidly (+3% p.a.)

• 2 ºC requires an early peak and sustained reductions

• Need to target both supply and demand

• Technology and economic feasibility will be increased by

• Early and broadly based international mitigation action

• Limiting growth in energy demand through behavioural change and efficiency

• Utilising a portfolio of technologies with R&D in key areas, e.g. CCS, vehicles, advanced fuels, storage

• Availability of affordable negative emissions technologies

• Action on non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide

And if we can’t?

Geoengineering options

Aerosols in stratosphere

Iron fertilisation in

sea

Pump liquid CO2 into deep sea

Pump liquid CO2 into

rock

Greening deserts

GM crops

Grow trees

Cloud seeding

Chemicals to save ozone

Giant reflectors in orbit

Source: IGBP 2009

The adaptation agenda

Source: DEFRA

UKCP09

Climate ChangeRisk Assessment

Climate Change Risk Assessment• The global climate is changing and

warming will continue over the next century

• The UK is already vulnerable to extreme weather, including flooding and heatwaves

• Flood risk is projected to increase significantly across the UK

• UK water resources are projected to come under increased pressure

• Potentially, there are health benefits as well as threats related to climate change, affecting the most vulnerable groups in our society

• Sensitive ecosystems are likely to come under increasing pressure

• etc

What’s in the flood plain?

The Flood Plain and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

Significant chance Moderate chance Low chance

Infrastructure already at risk

Source: Environment Agency

Reducing the probability

Increasing resilience

Adaptation to flooding

• Exposure to flooding. The Government and local authorities should ensure more robust and transparent implementation of planning policy in relation to development in areas at risk of flooding.

• Protecting existing properties from flooding. The Government should support sustained and increased investment in flood defences from public or private sources; or in the absence of this identify ways to manage the social and economic consequences of more frequent flooding.

After Tompkins et al 2005

Share best practice

Regulatemanagement

Raise public awareness through

education

Clarify responsibilities at local and national levels

Improve monitoring and evidence base

Plan for the longer term within risk

frameworkJoin up thinking: integrated

management

Incentivise management to reduce the risk

Enabling adaptation

• We are aiming for 4°C and planning for 2 °C• Adaptation is currently generally viewed as the means of continuing what we

are doing• Concerned with climate proofing existing practices in which the objectives

remain unchanged• The need for transformational as opposed to continuous change is largely

unaddressed• There is a real danger of maladaptation

– What is appropriate for a 2 °C may be inappropriate (and costly) for a 4 °C world– Incremental adaptation may prevent more transformative measures

Aim for 2°C and plan for 4 °C

What are we adapting to?

SummaryClimate change and impacts

Mitigation

Adaptation