The New COVID Consumer · Get grounded insight amidst the chaos Complimentary Offerings Paid Engagements Strategic Phone Consultations For non-clients 2019-2023 LatAm E-commerce report

The New COVID Consumer

June 25th, 2020www.americasmi.com

An analysis of 2000+ consumer

interviews under quarantine in Brazil,

Mexico & Colombia

©2020 Americas Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. ǀ Private and Confidential www.americasmi.com 2©2020 Americas Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. ǀ Private and Confidential

The opinions expressed by today’s panelists are their personal views and may

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responsibility for any inaccuracies should they remain unverified.

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of the information provided in today’s webinar.Legal Notice

Introductions

The new COVID consumer

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The new COVID

consumer

©2020. All rights reserved. ǀ Private and Confidential

Today’s Panelists

Moderator

John PriceManaging Director

Presenters

Abel DelgadoDigital Marketing Director

Ricardo ÁlvarezConsumer Services Practice Director

John HolcombeSVP, Latin American Research

©2020 Americas Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. ǀ Private and Confidential www.americasmi.com 5©2020 Americas Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. ǀ Private and Confidential

AMI is the leading

analytical voicein Latin American sectors:

• Consumer services

• Logistics

• Payments

• Natural resources

• Industrial

• Healthcare

Industry advisory group

for companies operating in

Latin America

27 years experience in

the region

Full coverage

of Latin America and the

Caribbean

Our teams have

executed 3000+

projects in Latin

American &

Caribbean

markets since

1993

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consumer


Our market intelligence & advisory services help

clients make decisions and take actions

• Develop a market entry strategy

• Decide whether to and how to acquire a company

• Find, evaluate and choose a local business partner

• Adapt a product or service to the local market

• Decide upon which markets to focus marketing spend

• Build a strategic plan and local management buy-in

• Defend a company’s market share

• Disrupt the competition and win share

• Improve brand awareness and conversion

• Identify and mitigate political, community, and other

sources of project risk

• Understand the reputational risk of a partner or project

• Measure and improve customer satisfaction

CUSTOMER(Market research)

COMPETITOR(Competitive intelligence)

CONTEXT(Risk analysis)

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Our COVID-19 Offerings: Tailored to This Moment, to Your NeedsGet grounded insight amidst the chaos

Complimentary Offerings Paid Engagements

Strategic Phone ConsultationsFor non-clients

2019-2023 LatAm E-commerce reportForecast considering the impact of COVID-19

AMI-organized webinars for clients,

partners or employees

Tailored monitoring of your industry

trends

AMI-guided re-calibration of your 2020

business plans

Coronavirus webinars• Trade & Logistics

• Healthcare

• Payments

• Mining

• Economic outlook

• Political forecast

• Consumer behavior

Strategic Phone

ConsultationsFor existing or previous clients

Weekly Coffee ChatsSector-specific conference calls

to stay informed

Scan for more info on all

our COVID-19services

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Full-Service Research

Echo's senior staff are knowledgeable and passionate about all research. We love rolling up our

sleeves regardless of the challenge, be it big or small. Our senior staff boasts experience across

both quant and qual methodologies and techniques, with studies across 80 different countries in

2019.

Our approach to our full-service work mimics the way we tackle recruiting and field

management. It's purposeful, strategic and to the point. This means we get to the heart of what is happening — giving you the insight and confidence to make key decisions.

Our offerings are fully flexible, and we develop bespoke research designs tailored to your specific

needs. From turn-key research initiatives through to support at specific stages of the journey,

we're here to partner with you at any stage as any of our services can be packaged or taken on an

ad hoc basis.

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Active Recruiting: The Echo Way

PROBLEMFinding and verifying research participants

How can research agencies find participants that are not professional

pollsters, have fake profiles or simply have been overused — all while

minimizing and adhering to timelines?

SOLUTION

ACTIVE RECRUITING

Active recruiting is actively working to find those people online and

through social outreach, where they live and breathe, and validates the

behavior we are looking for that yields reliable research results.

The key is not to rely on participants coming to us through passive

posting or databases, but instead finding them, and asking them

to participate.

LatAm COVID-19

Pandemic Forecast


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The new COVID

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Poll Question Results

Which country will be in the best economic condition one year from today?

10%

14%

34%

3%

31%

7%

0%

Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina Chile Peru Ecuador

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Annual deaths per 100,000 people

* COVID deaths after 4 months of pandemic

Country COVID* HomicideCar

crash

Heart

disease

Belgium 84 0.1 6 61

Spain 61 0.2 4 50

USA 36 5 12 87

Ecuador 24 6 20 60

Peru 24 8 14 74

Brazil 24 30 23 80

Mexico 23 26 13 86

Chile 17 2 12 49

Colombia 5 25 17 97

Argentina 2 6 14 106

COVID-19 — A Leading Cause of Death in Europe, Not Yet in the

AmericasLatin American countries embraced quarantines early, albeit with varying levels of political support.

In doing so, death rates from COVID are not likely to exceed those of heart disease.

Sources – ECDC, UN

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Confi

rmed d

eath

s doubling r

ate

(# o

f days)

China 122

South Korea 87

Trinidad 82

Taiwan 82

Italy 75

Spain 74

Iran 67

Germany 63

Puerto Rico 59

USA 54

Canada 47

Ecuador 43

Panama 41

Brazil 26

Argentina 25

Peru 25

Mexico 19

Colombia 17

Chile 14

Guatemala 14

Are Latin American countries emerging from lockdowns too

soon?Lacking the fiscal and monetary resources to remain in lockdown, Latin American countries began to lift

portions of lockdown in late May. The region must cohabitate with the coronavirus until vaccines arrive (late

2021).

Sources – ECDC, UN

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-8.5

-7.5

-6

-5

-2.7

-1.2

3.7

5.45

44.6

6.4

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

LAC Europe North America Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific

2020 2021

Real GDP Forecast 2020-2021 (%)

2020 signals the largest pan-regional GDP drop since World War IILockdowns, designed for wealthier, more developed economies, have proved economically ruinous in

Latin America

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Sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, AMI analysis

-5

-8-9

-7.4

-9.5

-5

-12

-2

-6.9

-4.1

34

2.7

4.6 4.75.5 6

42.9 2.8

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

USA Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina Chile Peru Dom Rep Ecuador Guatemala

2020 2021 Source(s): AMI Analysis, World Bank, IMF, CEPAL, S & P Global

Real GDP Forecast 2020-2021 (%)

In Latin America, smaller economies will fare betterCOVID entered Latin America via travelers returning from vacations in Europe and the U.S., as well as from

studying abroad. Smaller countries have had an easier time containing the virus and deploying national

government resources effectively.

Our Survey Results

The New COVID Consumer

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Survey MethodologyRapid, online, mobile, brief

Audience

Online adults took an online survey that lasted 12

minutes, on average.

Geography

A total of 2,078 surveys were completed in Brazil,

Colombia and Mexico. Data has been balanced to

reflect population, age and gender distribution of

Internet users.

Dates

All data was collected between May 28th and June 6th,

2020.

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12

32

31

12

12

Retreaters Maintainers Adapters

Disruptors Newbies

The New COVID ConsumersDefined by their online purchasing under quarantine

Retreaters — reducing their

online purchases.

Maintainers — have not changed

their online purchase behavior

Adapters — are purchasing

slightly more online

Disruptors — are purchasing

significantly more online

Newbies — recently made an

online purchase for the first

timeSource: AMI/Echo survey, N = 2,078

Brazil Mexico Colombia

9 11 21

38 28 24

33 32 23

18 11 11

3 17 21

Segments

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RETREATERS

Segment Profiles

Source: AMI/Echo survey, N = 2,078

55% 45%

AGES

MAINTAINERS

43% 57%

ADAPTORS

52% 48%

DISRUPTORS

54% 46%

NEWBIES

62% 38%

61%2 years or more of

college education


college education


college education


college education

63%Some university

studies

59

NOT

MARRIED

NO

CHILDREN

62 6152

78

44

63 62 6655

HeHEAD OF HH

EDUCATION

** 60%A Master’s degree or a

doctorate

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The new COVID

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RETREATERS

The Heavy Toll of QuarantinesAll have suffered economically and physically, but some more than others

Economic

impact

MAINTAINERS ADAPTORS DISRUPTORS NEWBIES

31%

42%

33%

53%

85%

Permanently lostjob

Will continueworking from home

Began working fromhome

Temporarily lostjob

Reduced householdincome

12%

43%

47%

26%

68%

8%

57%

63%

22%

60%

10%

54%

61%

18%

52%

23%

28%

38%

53%

73%

Negative

lifestyle

indicators

65%

52%

20%

38%

68%

46%

16%

42%

69%

47%

15%

45%

64%

45%

29%

64%63%

43%

21%

49%

Did not exercise more Gained weight Ate worse Slept worse

Retreaters Maintainers Adaptors Disruptors Newbies


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41 27 18 14

Feeling stronger/redefined

Job and/or income loss combined with isolation and

reflection has obliged or inspired them to assess

who they really are, how to start anew and define

their future

Finding a “silver

lining”

Valuing friends/family more,

each experience, want to live

life to the max

Irritated &

scared

Worried/frustrated

about their health,

income, and

quarantine orders

Philosophical

Cool headed

(sanguine), wait and

see attitude

The COVID-19 crisis is a pivotal moment that will redefine

consumers:

Out of work, or income threatened; locked inside our homes — quarantines have at worst sparked anger

and frustration, and at best, have inspired re-invention and a new appreciation of what we have.

Decisions made now will impact consumer habits over the next several years.


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Newbies are opportunistic, Retreaters are angry,

Disruptors are sanguine

Retreaters

Newbies

Newbies

Retreaters

Disruptors

Newbies

Disruptors

Adaptors

Maintainers

Adaptors

Maintainers

Maintainers

Adaptors

Disruptors

Finding a “silver lining”

Valuing friends/family more, each

experience, want to live life to the max

Feeling stronger/redefined

Pandemic has forced/inspired them to assess

themselves, start anew and redefine their futures

Irritated & scared

Worried/frustrated about their health, incomes

and quarantine orders

Philosophical

Cool headed (sanguine), wait-

and-see attitude

Now is the moment to reconnect with your customers … but be sure to take into account how

COVID-19 has shaped their outlooks and their priorities as people — and as consumers

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The new COVID

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“La importancia de lugares de compras, por ejemplo Amazon, Mercado

Libre y otras plataformas similares”. San Nicolás de Los Garza, México

“Lo que más impacto ha tenido en mí es organizar mi tiempo y espacio

de hogar en esta temporada, además de ver oportunidades en mi sector

de poder trabajar de forma online”. Bogotá, Colombia

“La calidad de los servicios de internet ha bajado”. Cuautla, México

“Precisei de algumas compras importantes na internet neste período porém

não consegui comprar. Seja pela indisponibilidade do produto ou prazo enorme

para entrega.” São Leopoldo, Brasil

“Passei a oferecer todos os meus serviços online, ou seja, mudei totalmente o

meu modelo de negócios.” São Paulo, Brasil

“A quarentena serviu para repensar todos os hábitos de saúde, consumo,

pessoas. Uma limpeza geral na vida.” Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

A new (and sudden) reliance on

the Internet, for just about

everything, has Latin

Americans curious, frustrated,

anxious and excited

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0% 1-5% 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71% o mas

PCT.

OF

ON

LIN

E P

OPU

LATIO

N

PERCENT OF REGULAR PURCHASES (EXCL. UBER OR NETFLIX) MADE ONLINE

Before Quarantine After Quarantine

Base: 2,078

Share of Regular Purchases Made Online: Total MarketCOVID (2020) has done for LatAm e-commerce what SARS did for Chinese e-commerce (2003)

40% > 21% 53% > 21%

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The new COVID

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0% 1-5% 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71% o mas


Base: 290 Disruptors

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0% 1-5% 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71% o mas


Base: 644 Adaptors

Adaptors Disrupters

Share of Regular Purchases Made Online: Adaptors & DisruptersAdaptors and Disrupters are still working, so they can keep spending.

Adaptors are obliged to buy more online. Disrupters relish online shopping.

50% > 21% 62% > 21% 60% > 21% 80% > 21%

% O

F O

NLI

NE

PO

PU

LATI

ON

% O

F O

NLI

NE

PO

PU

LATI

ON

% OF REGULAR PURCHASES (excluding UBER & Netflix) MADE ONLINE % OF REGULAR PURCHASES (excluding UBER & Netflix) MADE ONLINE

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A Closer Look at NewbiesCOVID-19 has digitized a generation of (mostly female) informal workers/consumers — the Newbies

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0% 1-5% 6-10% 11-15%

16-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-60%

61-70%

71% o mas


8%

10%

22%

32%

36%

37%

49%

50%

Other

Subscribed to a new streamingservice

Avoided using cash

Used a digital credit or debit card

Used online banking services

Bought food products online

Bought other products online

Used home delivery services

Base: 241 Newbies

Newbies — online share of regular

purchases

Newbies — first-time purchases made during

quarantine

0% > 21% 28% > 21%

% O

F O

NLI

NE

PO

PU

LATI

ON

% OF REGULAR PURCHASES (excluding UBER & Netflix) MADE ONLINE

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The new COVID

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30%

30%

33%

29%

26%

17%

7%

13%

13%

11%

23%

30%

28%

31%

14%

29%

32%

26%

27%

50%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

EXERCISE IN GYM

More Less The Same N/A

48%

41%

36%

47%

41%

12%

9%

8%

9%

8%

21%

30%

38%

27%

29%

19%

20%

18%

17%

22%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

EXERCISE AT HOME


28%

35%

41%

45%

29%

21%

3%

4%

6%

8%

30%

42%

38%

34%

36%

21%

20%

17%

15%

27%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

TRAVEL BY CAR


18%

10%

11%

7%

16%

30%

27%

30%

36%

28%

33%

49%

44%

36%

46%

19%

14%

15%

21%

10%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

TAKE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION


Post-Quarantine Intentions (I of II) — Contradiction & Clarity

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The new COVID

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22%

23%

47%

72%

30%

16%

3%

9%

7%

20%

64%

64%

44%

21%

34%

10%

10%

1%

0%

16%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

ONLINE SHOPPING (IN GENERAL)


19%

17%

17%

15%

19%

16%

8%

16%

16%

13%

56%

62%

61%

63%

59%

9%

13%

6%

6%

9%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

SHOP IN C-STORES


26%

30%

32%

37%

30%

38%

24%

25%

18%

30%

36%

46%

43%

45%

41%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

ORDER DELIVERY/TAKE-OUT FOOD

More Less The Same

16%

30%

20%

22%

20%

44%

25%

40%

35%

39%

40%

45%

40%

43%

41%

RETREATERS

MAINTAINERS

ADAPTORS

DISRUPTORS

NEWBIES

DINE AT RESTAURANTS

More Less The Same

Post Quarantine Intentions (II of II) — The New Normal Emerges

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Clothing Sneakersfor sports

Internetservice foryour home

Casualshoes

Cellphone Dressshoes

Appliances(washer,

etc.)

Smart TV Healthinsurance

Smallkitchen

appliances

Lifeinsurance

Television(not smart)

Tabletcomputer

Retreaters Maintainers Adaptors Disruptors Newbies

Intention to Purchase in 2020COVID-19 will reshape the priority of purchases made by consumers

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The new COVID

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Conclusions Engage now, engage thoughtfully

Research conclusions

• COVID-19 is an economic crisis as

much as it is a health crisis. Stricter

quarantines cause deeper economic

disruption.

• The ability to work from home +

connectivity = income

differentiation

• Quarantines oblige or inspire

consumers to re-assess their careers,

their relationships, their priorities,

themselves.

• How people navigate COVID-19

defines them as consumers.

• E-commerce laggards have been

forced to go digital.

• Must have product ranking has

changed: connectivity, health &

economic security are now

priorities.

Implications for marketers

• NOW is a pivotal moment when

consumers re-define purchase

priorities and brand loyalty.

Engage them ASAP.

• Customer segmentation should

include emotional metrics, not

simply demographics.

• Brands must be re-positioned, even

re-built, to thrive in a COVID-19

market through the end of 2021.

• Product niche opportunities have

emerged that require speed to

exploit.

• Companies must prioritize online

marketing and sales efforts — and

do so in a thoughtfully segmented

fashion.

Audience Q&A


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The new COVID

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Your follow-up questions are welcome

Moderator

John [email protected]

Presenters

Abel [email protected]

Ricardo Á[email protected]

John [email protected]

Documents

The New COVID Consumer · Get grounded insight amidst the chaos Complimentary Offerings Paid Engagements Strategic Phone Consultations For non-clients 2019-2023 LatAm E-commerce report