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The Latin American PVC marketThe Latin American PVC market
First Brazilian PVC Congress Sao Paulo, June 7, 2005
Outlook focused on
The Andean Countries Mexico, Chile Central America and
The Caribbean
Regional economic data
Outlook on PVC markets Challenges, opportunities
What we will see:
Latin American Economies by sizeUS$ Billions
Regional economic data
0 200 400 600 800
El SalvadorCosta Rica
Dom RepublicGuatemala
EcuadorPeruChile
ColombiaVenezuelaArgentina
BrazilMexico
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
GDP per capita, 2004
Regional economic data
195320992145219023352349
34173543
39124148
43614524
58566506
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MexicoChilePanamaCosta RicaVenezuelaArgentinaUruguayBrasilPeruEl SalvadorDom. RepublicEcuadorColombiaGuatemala
USD$
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
GDP per cápita in Central America 2004
Regional economic data
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
2003
Nicaragua
Honduras
Guatemala
EL Salvador
Costa Rica
Panama
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
Per capita GDP in the Caribbean 2003
(US $)
Regional economic data
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2003
Puerto Rico
R.Dominicana
Trinidad
Jamaica
Guyana
Haiti
US$
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
Colombia
Population:45 millions
Per capita GDPUS$ 2.099
Regional economic data
Real GDPUS$ Bs 95.2
GDP Growth (%)
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
Mexico
Population:105 millions
Per capita GDPUS$ 6502
Real GDPUS$ Bs 676,5
Regional economic data
GDP Growth (%)
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
Venezuela
Population:24 millions
Per capita GDPUS$ 4148
Real GDPUS$ Bs 107,5
Regional economic data
GDP Growth (%)
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
GDP Growth (%)
Regional economic data
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2004 2005 2006
Colombia
Venezuela
Mexico
Perú
Chile
LatinAmerica
Source: International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook
Contents
Regional economic trends
Outlook on PVC market
Challenges, opportunities
Production Capacitieskt / year
PVC
479
231140
128
140
240
210355
185150
280
360
MVC
EDC
Source: CMAI
BRAZIL
Solvay Indupa
Carbocloro
Braskem
442600
PequivenPetco
Policyd
Primex-Mexichem
268
Pemex
356
752
470
Total PVC production capacities ( 1.169 k t / year)
• Mexico: 53%• Colombia: 30%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Colombia
Mexico
Venezuela
Source: CMAI,
Colombia´s Additional Emulsion PVCTotal Capacity, Jan 2006: 60.000 tons per year
C a p a c id a d d e p r o d u c c ió n d e P V C E m u ls ió n U .S .A Y L a t in o a m é r ic a
-
1 0 .0 0 0
2 0 .0 0 0
3 0 .0 0 0
4 0 .0 0 0
5 0 .0 0 0
6 0 .0 0 0
7 0 .0 0 0
8 0 .0 0 0
9 0 .0 0 0
TM
S
e p vc 8 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0
P o lyo n e F o rm o s a C o lo r i te S o lva y B ra s k e m P e tc o P o li c yd P r im e x
PVC Internal Demand (kt / year)
• Venezuela´s production and consumption was dramatically impacted in 2003
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Colombia
Mexico
Venezuela
Sources: CMAI, and analysis by PETCO
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2001 2002 2003 2004
Colombia
Venezuela
Ecuador
Perú
Bolivia
Chile
PVC Demand Andean Countries and Chile
(Tons per year)
Sources: CMAI and analysis by PETCO
PVC Demand
Central America and the Caribbean
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5
C o s t a R i c a
D o m i n i c a nR e p .
A l lC a r i b b e a n
C e n t r a lA m e r i c a
Sources: CMAI, and analysis PETCO
•
Plastics Consumption: PVC VS Others (Colombia, 000 metric tons per year)
Source: Acoplasticos
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
PVC
PP
LDPE
HDPE
PS
PET
1,8
4,2
3,73,9
2,8
3,4
7,01
21,1
5,23
6,7
4,6
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0
VenezuelaColombia
MexicoBrazil
ArgentinaLatin AmericaWest Europe
USAChina
Northest AsiaTotal World
PVC per cápita consumption, 2004Kg./Person
Sources: CMAI, and analysis PETCO
PVC per cápita consumption / each US$1,000 of GDP
2003
Sources: CMAI, and analysis PETCO
0,4
0,6
0,90,9
0,9
0,9
0,91,0
1,5
1,6
1,9
4,5
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
VenezuelaUSA
BoliviaLATAM
Promedio MundialChilePerú
CAN y ChileColombia
EcuadorEuropa
China
Millions TM: 30 5.5 6.2 1.5 0.13 0.33
PVC applications market share, 2003
Sources: CMAI, World Bank and analysis by PETCO
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
World W Europe USA China Colombia Mexico
Pipe&Fittings Profiles&Tubes Bottles Film&Sheet Cables All Others
PVC applications market share, 2003
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA LATAM AC and Chile China
Pipes Profiles Packing Cables Others
Sources: CMAI, World Bank and analysis by PETCO
Why the growing in “Other Aplications¨ has been limited”?
Little advantage of the existing opportunities to export manufactured vinyl products
Little exploration of the potential domestic markets for PVC products which have a long and succesful record in developed countries.
Challenges , opportunities
Free trade agreements lays the way towards a
market with great demand of manufactured
products
Latin American PVC products can accede
competitively to that market
Medical devices
Commercial opportunities
Synthetic leathers
Commercial opportunities
• Non slip rug pads• Multipurpose liners• Place mats
Commercial opportunities
Traffic Cones
Commercial opportunities
Commercial opportunities
Furniture
Commercial opportunities
Roofing titles
Commercial opportunities
Roofing membranes
Commercial opportunities
Flooring
Commercial opportunities
Profiles for windows and building
systems
Our challenges
To promote the regional internal markets development
To emulate the Chinese industry in its huge exports of PVC final products
To impulse innovation and design of new vinyl products
To reach a better understanding of vinyl applications and benefits
The Colombian Award for PVC Innovations