The impact of media access The impact of media access on democracyon democracy

Matt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider RhodeMatt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider Rhode

HypothesisHypothesis

H0: There is no relationship between H0: There is no relationship between media access and levels of democracymedia access and levels of democracy

H1: There is a relationship between media H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy access and democracy

We predict a moderate positive relationship We predict a moderate positive relationship between media access and democracy.between media access and democracy.

Hypothesis IIHypothesis II

H0: There is no relationship between H0: There is no relationship between media access and democracy in Chinamedia access and democracy in China

H1: There is a relationship between media H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy in Chinaaccess and democracy in China

We predict a moderate negative relationship We predict a moderate negative relationship between media access and democracy in between media access and democracy in ChinaChina

Importance to Policy AnalysisImportance to Policy Analysis

Democracy promotion key part of U.S. Democracy promotion key part of U.S. Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

Conclusive findings could suggest Conclusive findings could suggest alternative foreign policy strategiesalternative foreign policy strategies

Literature ReviewLiterature Review

Best & Wade - The Internet and Democracy: Best & Wade - The Internet and Democracy: Global Catalyst or Democratic Dud?Global Catalyst or Democratic Dud?

McChesney – Rich Media, Poor DemocracyMcChesney – Rich Media, Poor Democracy Kalathil, Shanthi – Dot.Com for DictatorsKalathil, Shanthi – Dot.Com for Dictators Chase, Mulvenon - You’ve Got Dissent!Chase, Mulvenon - You’ve Got Dissent! Franda, Marcus – Launching into CyberspaceFranda, Marcus – Launching into Cyberspace Lynch, David – After the Propaganda StateLynch, David – After the Propaganda State

Defining Our VariablesDefining Our Variables Democracy: We created a variable to represent democracy by taking the raw data

scores from Freedom House for a states Political and Civil Liberties. Each state was given between 1 and 60 points (60 being the most free) for Civil Liberties Each state was given between 1 and 40 points (40 being the most free) for Political Liberties Our Data for democracy therefore ranges from 1 (being the absolute least free) to 100

(being the most free possible)

Internet Access: We used the World Bank’s World Development Indicators to create a variable measuring Internet Users per 1000 people.

Media Access: We attempted to gather data regarding Newspapers per capita and the percentage of Televisions per household from the World Development Indicators, but the data was sparse and lacking in several areas.

Censorship: We used the Freedom House Freedom of the Press indicators to create a censorship scale ranging from 1(no censorship at all) to 100 (complete censorship).

GDP Per Capita: We used World Bank Data to compile a list of GDP per capita for each nation using base year 2000.

Variable InteractionVariable Interaction

DatasetsDatasets

WDI datasetsWDI datasetsNewspapers per capitaNewspapers per capita% of households with TV% of households with TV Internet users pr. 1000 capitaInternet users pr. 1000 capita

Freedom House raw data scores forFreedom House raw data scores forFreedom of the pressFreedom of the pressDemocracy (CL and PR)Democracy (CL and PR)

World.savWorld.sav CIA World FactbookCIA World Factbook

MethodologyMethodology

Unit of Analysis: NationsUnit of Analysis: NationsResearch Design: Cross SectionalResearch Design: Cross SectionalMultiple Regression Analysis Multiple Regression Analysis Control variables: Censorship & GDP Per Control variables: Censorship & GDP Per

CapitaCapitaQualitative research on China, with small Qualitative research on China, with small

quantitative comparisonquantitative comparisonN = 110N = 110

Distribution of Internet accessDistribution of Internet access

Distribution of TV accessDistribution of TV access

Regression Results – Internet Regression Results – Internet AccessAccess

Regression Results GraphicallyRegression Results Graphically

800.00600.00400.00200.000.00

The Number of Internet Users per 1000 people

100

80

60

40

20

0

Fre

edo

m H

ou

se A

gg

reg

ate

of

Raw

Po

litic

al a

nd

Civ

il L

iber

ty S

core

s

R Sq Linear = 0.397

Regression with control for GDP Regression with control for GDP Per CapitaPer Capita

Regression with control for GDP Regression with control for GDP Per Capita and CensorshipPer Capita and Censorship

Case Study of ChinaCase Study of China

Case Study of ChinaCase Study of China

China Case StudyChina Case Study

China Case StudyChina Case Study

Case Study – Qualitative AnalysisCase Study – Qualitative Analysis

Has the Internet fostered Democracy in China?

Chinese Government TacticsCensorship – Great Firewall of ChinaCorporate Help – Google, Yahoo, Wikipedia

DissidentsShort timeframeAmbiguous Results

Problems with dataProblems with data

Countries with 100 can’t improve Countries with 100 can’t improve democratically within FH rankingsdemocratically within FH rankings

Internet Disproportionately weighted Internet Disproportionately weighted No data for newspapers or cell phonesNo data for newspapers or cell phonesSmall N for TV accessSmall N for TV access

Censorship a very ambiguous and biased Censorship a very ambiguous and biased concept. No measurement for self concept. No measurement for self censorshipcensorship

ConclusionsConclusions Accept H0: No relationship on a global levelAccept H0: No relationship on a global level Previous studies disguised the type of information Previous studies disguised the type of information

providedprovided Very Complex Issue – intervening variables, simultaneityVery Complex Issue – intervening variables, simultaneity Short term vs. long term effectShort term vs. long term effect Accept H0: No clear uniform relationshipAccept H0: No clear uniform relationship Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more than Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more than

mainland Chinamainland China Government has been very efficient in blocking Government has been very efficient in blocking

damaging information to the general public while damaging information to the general public while dissidents use media internallydissidents use media internally