THE FUTURE MARKETEERTHE FUTURE MARKETEER

Trendwatchers Market Maker

Adrie Dolman Jaspar Roos

Justification

• This document started as an irrational

collaborative experiment without statistical

evidence

• We focused on curated experts

• We asked some communities what they

thought about it, and found weak signals

• We dropped the sense in powerpoint

• Our intuition says it’s okay!

market maker code words:

• Experiment

• Exploration of the senses

• Impact instead of profit

become a market maker by

• Going to the edges for the new trends

• Influence their brands with sexiness

• Experiment

Market Making…

is the only way out!

1. DEMOGRAPHICS

2. INTERNET AND MOBILE

3. CRISIS

Driver 1: changing demographics

Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey, Global N= 13237

Question: Compared to previous years, are you likely to spend less, the same or more on the following products / services in the next 2-3 years?

40%

30%

22%

21%

16%

7%

6%

6%

3%

2%

-7%

-10%

Utilities

Food & drinks

Transportation

Mobile Telephony

Clothing

Holiday/vacation

Mobile Broadband

Pay television

Electrical appliances

Fixed Telephony

Going out

Sports

Mobile Telephony

Mobile Broadband

Transportation

Pay television

Utilities

Elect. Appliances

Fixed Telephony.

Net Increase/Decrease

Holidays

Food & drinks

Clothing

Going out

Sports

4%

-3%

-6%

-10%

-14%

-16%

-18%

-19%

-19%

-23%

-32%

-24%

Utilities

Food & drinks

Transportation

Mobilebroadband

Mobile Telepony

Pay television

Sports

Fixed Telephony

Clothing

Holiday/vacation

Electricalappliances

Going out

Mobile Telephony

Mobile Broadband

Pay television

Fixed Telephony

Holidays

Clothing

Going out

Sports

Net Increase/Decrease

Transportation

Utilities

Food & drinks

Elect.Appliances

MatureMature markets

Expected Consumer Spending Expected Consumer Spending

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value

Driver 1: changing demographics

Driver 2: internet and mobile

kid

Internet usage stats are overwelming

• The average US internet users spends 32 hours online every month

• On average a global internet user spends 16 hours online

• The UK has the highest percentage of people online (85% = 53 million), followed by Germany (82% – 67 million), France (80% 52 million), Japan (80%, 102 million) and the USA (79% – 244 million)

• China has the most people online – 456 million (only 34% of population)

• Chinese users spend more than 5 hours a week shopping online

• There are more than 1 billion search queries per day on Google

• The highest growing trends: location-based services (27%), TimeshiftedTV (27%), Internet Banking (19%)

Source: (Pring, 2012)

Driver 2: internet and mobile

Driver 2: internet and mobile

Go mobile or go home.

The consumer of the future carries the power of

consumption and choice in her pocket.

Driver 2: internet and mobile

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Mobile subscriptionsInternet UsersFixed Telephone linesFixed BB SubscriptionsMobile BB Subscriptions

1999:Access to

telephone of

any kind

± 15%

2011:Mobile-cellular

subscriptions

± 85%

Telecom Penetration 1999 - 2011

29

Driver 2: internet and mobile

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value

30

Driver 2: internet and mobile

Driver 3: economic crisis

Driver 3: economic crisis

Consumers face the trust crisis

25

50

75

100

125

150

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

VS

eurozone (as rechts)

Index Index

Source: Datastream

Driver 3: economic crisis

v

The waste bin is the retailer’s best friend

Unsold goods weigh on future economic growth

Driver 3: economic crisis

It is time for a radical change in

marketing

Market Making…

is the only way out!

There is a need for liberation

Sign of the times

As well as new experimentsthe ‘Meat Liquor’

In Londen

the blood in the Lady Gaga perfume

New heroes are on the edge

New heroes part 2

Daan Roosegaarde

• Combining geek style with design with

intimacy, this dress changes into transparant

or dimmed with the emotions they have

Curation is on the rise• Internet is overwelming. For market makers focus not only

on online search and social network. This is valid but try to fundStart focusing on new experts. Look for curators whocan find the needle in the haystack � also the success of TED!

• In a phone survey of 1,005 adults ages 18 and older between August 2-5, 2012 the Pew Internet Project found that:

– 12% of online adults say they use Pinterest, which is dominated by women. Nearly a fifth of online women (19%) use Pinterest, a site that allows users to organize and share content from around the web by “pinning” photos and images into “pinboards” that are organized by categories or themes. Each “pin”, which includes a caption, links back to the site from which it originated.

– 12% of online adults say they use Instagram, which is dominated by young adults. Some 27% of the internet users between ages 18-29 use Instagram, which is a photo-sharing service built around a smartphone app that allows users to filter or tint photos they’ve taken and then share them with their networks. Facebook recently bought the service.

– 5% of online adults say they use Tumblr. Some 11% of young adults use this social blogging service that allows for easy sharing of various types of posts, including text, photos, quotes, links, music, and video.

Pinterest

Market Making…

is the only way out!

IBM Global CEO Study 2012

IBM Global CEO Study 2012

Market making needs creativity

Source: Leader's Framework for Decision Making

by David J. Snowden, Mary E. Boone

Emergent market making

• Letting go of long throughput time procedures

• Experiment with new non tested methods �

Dan Ariely

• Learning from lean, agile and scrum

The future Market Maker

creates agile environments

where new markets can emerge

Superior fast innovation

Adopted from Ken Swaber

and Mike Beede

Fluid Intelligence increases creativity

“People high in fluid intelligence (Gf) made metaphors that

were much more creative.“Paul J. Silvia ⁎, Roger E. Beaty

Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina

Fluid Intelligence (Gf)

“Fluid intelligence or fluid reasoning is the capacity to think logically and solve

problems in novel situations, independent of acquired knowledge.”

Wikipedia

Increase fluid intelligence by

• Seek Novelty

• Challenge Yourself

• Think Creatively

• Do Things the Hard Way

• Network

Source: Andrea Kuszewski

Market makers in 2013:

• The key: Market Making is a complex system that only emerges in an agile environment

• Get onto the street

• Not organised, but experiencing the new world

• Go for impact and collaboration, instead of money and fame

• Experiment with new marketing channels likeWhatsApp and Pinterest

• Use techniques like scrum and serious gaming

and let it emerge!

Trendwatchers Market Maker

Adrie Dolman Jaspar Roos