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An introduction to the notion of Sailing SHip effects, along with some examples.
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The Sailing Ship Effect
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks about disruptive
innovation and technological change.
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This presentation introduces and explains the concept of a
Sailing Ship effect.
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In order to do so, the concept of a technology S-curve will be
described first.
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Performance
Time
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Performance
Time
A technology’s performance
evolves slowly in the beginning.
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Performance
Time
At some point, a breakthrough
happens and it now improves rapidly.
A technology’s performance
evolves slowly in the beginning.
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Performance
Time
At some point, a breakthrough
happens and it now improves rapidly.
Limits of what is scientifically possible are reached and performance doesn’t
increase much more.
A technology’s performance
evolves slowly in the beginning.
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When one technology is displaced by another
technology, the pattern might look something like this:
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Performance
Time
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Performance
Time
The initially lower performance makes it
seemingly irrational for firms dominating the
previous technology to invest at an early point.
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When the established technology is threatened, this
usually triggers existing companies to improve it.
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Such improvements are referred to as a sailing ship effect.
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This notion comes from an observation by Gilfillan (1935) who noted that the best sailing
ships were produced when steam ships had already
displaced them.
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A Sailing Ship effect can be illustrated in the following way:
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Performance
Time
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Performance
Time
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Performance
Time
The threat of being displaced triggers investments in the
established technology, increasing its performance.
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Performance
Time
The threat of being displaced triggers investments in the
established technology, increasing its performance.
But it is too late and the new technology wins in the long term.
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Some examples:
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http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/“The HDcctv Alliance is the
trade association for the global HDcctv industry.
HDcctv is the world's only electrical interface
standard for HD surveillance video,
providing 100% digital transmission of
uncompressed HDTV signals over existing coax.
Seeing is believing!”
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http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/“The HDcctv Alliance is the
trade association for the global HDcctv industry.
HDcctv is the world's only electrical interface
standard for HD surveillance video,
providing 100% digital transmission of
uncompressed HDTV signals over existing coax.
Seeing is believing!”
Analog HDCCTV is a contradiction in terms! Why this notion? And why in 2009?
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Analog CCTV is threatened by Digital, IP-based video
surveillance.
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As the image quality of IP surveillance improved and HD
quality was progressively introduced from 2008 and on,
this put pressure on analog CCTV companies.
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HDCCTV can thus be regarded as a sailing ship effect.
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Image Quality
Time
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Image Quality
Time
CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over
the following decades.
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Image Quality
Time
CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over
the following decades.
IP Video started off with a lower performance.
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Image Quality
Time
CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over
the following decades.
IP Video started off with a lower performance.
With HD Quality in 2008, it was
now better than CCTV.
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Image Quality
Time
CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over
the following decades.
IP Video started off with a lower performance.
With HD Quality in 2008, it was
now better than CCTV.
Being increasingly threatened, CCTV companies make som final
improvements to an obsolete technology.
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Image Quality
Time
CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over
the following decades.
IP Video started off with a lower performance.
With HD Quality in 2008, it was
now better than CCTV.
Being increasingly threatened, CCTV companies make som final
improvements to an obsolete technology.
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Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern in the automotive industry:
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Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern in the automotive industry:
“It is as if the industry itself anticipates the approaching saturating markets and tries to gain ground by
accelerating the pace of incremental innovations. Note that during periods of steady, regular high growth rates (the steep part of the automobile diffusion curve) the
rates of technological change appeared to be much slower.
Faced with almost saturated markets, the industry appears to be forced to rapidly introduce technological
innovations as part of the competitive "elbowing" in the struggle for market shares.”
Sources
Gilfillan, S.C., Inventing the Ship, Chicago, Follett Publishing Co, 1935.
Grübler, A. (1990) The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures - Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in
Transport, Physica-Verlag.
