Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Description of Sunflower Oil Scenario
Citation preview
BLACK SEA SUNFLOWER OIL: GLOBAL EXPANSION TO CONTINUE
SVETLANA SINKOVSKAYA
Marketing Director
APK-INFORM Media Group
www.apk-inform.com
Highlights of the presentation
Global trends on sunflower oil market
Black Sea sunflower oil – way to the leadership
What to expect in the new season 2013/14?
Conclusions
• The biggest agribusiness consulting company in the former USSR region
• Founded in 1996, currently our staff is about 80 in 3 offices (1 in Russia and 2 in Ukraine)
• Independent private company
• We make all kind of related market studies, periodicals and events
www.apk-inform.com/en
APK-Inform Media Group
Global trends on sunflower oil market
Sunflower oil market makes strong support
to the domestic growing of sunflower seed
1,91,8
2,01,7
1,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
thsd
ha,
th
sd t
on
s
Planted area, thsd ha Production, thsd tons
Yield, MT/ha
1,2
1,0
1,3 1,4 1,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
thsd
ha,
th
sd t
on
s
Planted area, thsd ha Production, thsd tons
Yield, MT/ha
1,81,9
2,0
1,6
1,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
thsd
ha,
th
sd t
on
s
Area, thsd ha Production, thsd tons
Yield, MT/ha
1,5
2,11,8 1,9 1,8
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
thsd
ha,
th
sd t
on
s
Area, thsd ha Production, thsd tons
Yield, MT/ha
World production of sunflower seed
1,16 1,221,33 1,29 1,30
1,41 1,39 1,46 1,59 1,48 1,63
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
Mln
ha,
mln
to
ns
Area, mln ha
Production, mln tons
Yield, MT/ha
Ukraine Russia
European Union
Argentina
World production of sunflower oil almost doubled since 2000 –
to around 15.4 million metric tons
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
8,27,4
8,19,2 9,1
10,7 10,8 10,2
12,1 12,3 12,4
15,313,9
15,4Sunflower Oil: World Production
mln MT
Ukraine27%
Russia22%
European Union20%
Argentina9%
Turkey5%
Other17%
2012/13
Source: USDA, September 2013
Global sunflower oil trade to more than triple
during 2000/01-2013/14
Today about a half of globally produced sunflower oil is traded all around the world, while in 2000/01 it was just 27%
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
2,21,9
2,32,7 2,6
3,9 4,0
3,5
4,5 4,5 4,5
6,4
5,8
6,8
2,4
1,21,5
2,3
1,21,5
1,91,5
2,1
1,61,8
2,0
1,2
1,9
*based on export data
Sunflower Oil & Seed: World Trade*mln MT
World sunflower oil export World sunflower seed export
Source: USDA, September 2013
Sunflower oil trade has one of the most
intensive growth pace among vegetable oils
Growth during 2000/01-2012/13Rapeseed oil by 3.3 times - to 3.95 million MTSunflower oil by 2.6 times - to 5.83 million MTPalm oil by 2.5 times - to 41.75 million MTSoybean oil by 1.3 times - to 8.9 million MT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
* based on export data
Vegetable Oils: World Trade*mln MT
Palm Oil Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Rapeseed Oil
Source: USDA, September 2013
Strong demand for sunflower oil globally
contributed to expansion of import geography
Traditional “old” marketsGrowth of imports during 2003/04-2012/13
European Union by 2.2 times - to 1.15 million MT
Egypt by 4.4 times - to 0.7 million MT
Turkey by 7.8 times - to 0.65 million MT
New markets (imports in 2012/13)
India (1.1 mln t) China (320 thsd t) Iraq (250 thsd t) Iran (210 thsd t) South Africa (160 thsd t) Uzbekistan(120 thsd t)
Source: USDA, September 2013
Sunflower oil: TOP-20 consumers
2555
1366
928
517
453
417
335
305
168
154
142
90
90
90
75
69
55
48
41
38
327
European Union
Russia
India
Turkey
Argentina
Ukraine
China
South Africa
Algeria
United States
Iran
Serbia and Montenegro
Kazakhstan
Egypt
Pakistan
Brazil
Mexico
Burma
Switzerland
Bolivia
Other
2000/01 (thousand MT)
3723
2100
1380
994
796
757
585
542
370
306
250
220
210
204
125
107
103
100
93
89
651
European Union
Russia
India
Turkey
China
Egypt
Ukraine
Argentina
South Africa
Pakistan
Iran
Iraq
Burma
United States
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Algeria
Serbia
Georgia
Other
2012/13 (thousand MT)
TOTAL 8,263 thousand MT TOTAL 13,705 thousand MT
TOP-4 remains constant
Source: USDA, September 2013
Black Sea sunflower oil – the way to the leadership
The share of the Black Sea sunflower oil in
global exports rose sharply
0,6 0,30,9 1,0 0,6
1,5 1,91,3
2,12,6 2,7
3,3 3,33,9
0,10,0
0,1 0,10,2
0,60,7
0,3
0,80,5 0,2
1,4 1,0
1,2
1,61,6
1,31,6 1,7
1,81,5
1,9
1,6 1,3 1,7
1,71,5
1,8
30%
18%
44%42%
34%
54%
64%
47%
64%
70%
62%
73% 74% 74%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 F
Development of global sunflower oil exports, mln MT
other world
Russia
Ukraine
share of Ukraine &Russia
Source: USDA, September 2013
Key developments for the Black Sea
sunflower oil market for the recent years
Incredibly high and rapidly
growing import demand from
India made it No1 market for
Ukraine with the share of more
than 30% in total exports 2012
China – “breakthrough” of 2013
– 250,000 tons and the 2nd place
in Ukrainian exports
Turkey and Egypt keep on
increasing imports of the Black
Sea sunflower oil
Iran – perspective and fast
growing market
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1617 18821280 1811 2034
18702482
1242
58
523668
813
1132
2215
7
11 1
1
thsd
to
ns
Ukrainian sunflower oil exports: gaining Indian market
Place ofIndia
India
Othercountries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012
251
449
782
399
294
725th
sd t
on
s
Turkey & Egypt: sunflower oil imports from Russia and Ukraine
Turkey
Egypt
What are the main competitive advantages
of the Black Sea sunflower oil?
Favorable geographic location of the region
Growing crushing industry and infrastructure
Logistics – development of vegetable oil terminals
Low state regulation
Good quality and attractive price
Measures to improve effectiveness of the crushing process (energy
saving by burning of produced husk) and costs reduction
82%78%
60%
74%70%
55%
83%
72% 66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
13
/14
F
Cap
acit
y u
tiliz
atio
n r
ate
mln
to
ns
Sunflower crushing capacity, mln tons
Actual crushing of sunflower, mln tons
Capacity utilization rate, %
88% 89%
66%
86% 89%80%
93%81%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
13
/14
F
Cap
acit
y u
tiliz
atio
n r
ate
mln
to
ns
Sunflower crushing capacity, mln tons
Actual crushing of sunflower, mln tons
Capacity utilization rate, %
Sunseed crushing: capacities and actual
crushing volume
Ukraine: current capacities10,7 mln t (potential of 2013/14 – 13,3 mln t)
Source: APK-Inform, September 2013
Russia: current capacities 11,7 mln t (in 2013/14 – 13 mln t)
Deficit
Deficit
Ukraine: export logistics development
Ukrainian veg oil terminals Actual Plans
Storage capacities,`000 tonnes 612 720
Transshipment capacities,`000 tonnes/year 5 500 6 530
Ukraine: rating of terminals
by storage and transshipment capacities
No. Terminal Port Transshipmentcapacities,
`000 tonnes/year
Actual storagecapacities,`000 tonnes
1 UPSS (UKRPISCHESBYTSYRYO) Dnepro-Bugskiy 1200 120
2 Risoil Terminal Ilyichevsk 1150 106
3 IMGK Ilyichevsk 1000 90
4 OPCTC Odessa 450 46
5 Delta-Wilmar Yuzhny 400 100
6 Everi Nikolaev 350 55
7 Kernel Trade OILTRANSTERMINAL Nikolaev 300 30
8 Khersones Kherson 220 20
9 Flask Berdyansk 190 19
10 Kernel Trade (BSIU) Ilyichevsk 150 16
11 Satellit Mariypol 100 10
Total: 5500 612
12 Veg oil terminal of Risoil Yuzhniy 700 30
13 Veg oil terminal of ALLSEEDS Yuzhniy n/a 35
14 Veg oil terminal of GLENCORE Ilyichevsk n/a 30
Start-up of 3 more terminals in near future:
Russia lags behind Ukraine in the
development of veg oils port infrastructure
Russian veg oil terminals Actual
Storage capacities,`000 tonnes
46
Transshipment capacities,`000 tonnes/year
1 600
Russia: rating of terminals
by storage and transshipment capacities
No. Terminal Port Transshipmentcapacities,
`000 tonnes/year
Storagecapacities,`000 tonnes
1 Taman Taman 438 30
2 Novorossiysk Novorossiysk 400 n/a
3 Yeysk Yeysk 250 6.5
4 Aston Rostov-on-Don 250 5.5
5 Rusagro Terminal Rostov-on-Don 250 4.0
Total: 1 588 46
One Baltic Sea port
6 Sodrugestvo Kaliningrad 2900 57
Ukraine & Russia: TOP-10 exporters of sunflower oil
Season 2012/13*Ukraine Russia
Kernel Group
Creativ
Cargill
MHP
Group Privat
Serna
Mayola
Fozzy-Food
Agrointer
ADM Ukraine
26%
12%
11%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
Yug Rusi
Aston
EFKO
Artis-Agro Export
Sunny Foods
NMGK
Sodrugestvo
Bunge CIS
Donmasloproduct
Monomakh
26%
15%
15%
7%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
* Full season, September 2012-August 2013
Ukraine & Russia: Main export destinations of sunflower oil
Ukraine Russia (not incl. Customs Union)
№ CountryExport volume
'000 tonsShare %
Y-o-y change
1 India 931 29% -17%
2 Egypt 436 13% 26%
3 Turkey 307 9% 49%
4 China 286 9% 196%
5 Iran 160 5% -31%
6 Netherlands 123 4% 42%
7 Spain 121 4% -13%
8 Italy 85 3% 50%
9 Saudi Arabia 78 2% 54%
10 France 69 2% -33%
11 Belarus 64 2% 41%
12 United Kingdom 61 2% 49%
13 Malaysia 49 1% 256%
14 Algeria 44 1% -80%
15 UAE 43 1% 25%
Others 387 12%
TOTAL 3 243 100% -0.6%
№ CountryExport volume
'000 tonsShare %
Y-o-y change
1 Turkey 334 35% -34%
2 Egypt 147 16% -52%
3 Uzbekistan 95 10% 8%
4 Italy 83 9% -16%
5 Spain 34 4% 1%
6 Kyrgyzstan 26 3% 2%
7 Azerbaijan 25 3% 17%
8 Netherlands 24 2% -36%
9 Iran 19 2% -29%
10 Armenia 13 1% 2%
11 Saudi Arabia 12 1% -69%
12 Afghanistan 12 1% -13%
13 Tajikistan 12 1% -13%
14 Turkmenistan 11 1% 27%
15 Lithuania 9 1% -41%
Others 88 9%
TOTAL 943 100% -34%
Season 2012/13*
* Full season, September 2012-August 2013
What to expect in the new season-2013/14?
Ukraine: 2013/14 – a new season of records
9,4
8,9
9,8
9,08,7
9,3
2,0
1,71,9
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
8,0
8,2
8,4
8,6
8,8
9,0
9,2
9,4
9,6
9,8
10,0
11/12 12/13 13/14 F
Sunflower seed production and crush prospects
Production, mln t
Domestic crush, mln t
Yield, t/ha (right axis)
3 7513 664
3 972
3 263 3 243
3 410
3 000
3 200
3 400
3 600
3 800
4 000
11/12 12/13 13/14 F
Sunflower oil production and export
Sunoil production, thsd t
Sunoil export, thsd t
Sunflower seed production to increase by 10% -to a record 9.8 million tonnes
Sunflower seed crush to increase by 8% -to 9.3 million tonnes
Sunflower oil production to increase by 8.4% -to 4 million tonnes
Sunflower oil export to increase by 5.2% -to 3.41 million tonnes
Source: APK-Inform, September 2013
Russia: prospects for 2013/14 look quite optimistic
Sunflower seed production to increase by 4.3% -to a record 8.9 million tonnes
Sunflower seed crush to increase by 1.1% -to 8.5 million tonnes
Sunflower oil production to increase by 1.1% -to 3.56 million tonnes
Sunflower oil export to increase by 27% -to 1.2 million tonnes
9,6
8,58,9
8,68,4 8,5
1,31,4 1,4
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
7,8
8,0
8,2
8,4
8,6
8,8
9,0
9,2
9,4
9,6
9,8
11/12 12/13 13/14 F
Sunflower seed production and crush prospects
Production, mln t
Domestic crush, mln t
Yield, t/ha (right axis)
3 557 3 522 3 563
1 426943 1 200
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
11/12 12/13 13/14 F
Sunflower oil production and export
Sunoil production, thsd t
Sunoil export, thsd t
Source: APK-Inform, September 2013
The situation on the world market
Commodity Country 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 FYear Change
thsd t %
Sunflower seed crop, thsd t World 40 640 36 340 41 763 5 423 15%European Union 8 456 6 999 8 350 1 351 19%
Argentina 3 341 3 100 3 400 300 10%
Turkey 925 1 075 1 400 325 30%Sunflower oil production, thsd t
World15 339 13 938 15 371 1 433 10%
European Union 2 937 2 740 2 925 185 7%
Argentina 1 565 1 260 1 380 120 10%
Turkey 718 769 868 99 13%
Commodity Country 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 FYear Change
thsd t %
Sunflower seed crop, thsd t World 40 640 36 340 41 763 5 423 15%European Union 8 456 6 999 8 350 1 351 19%
Argentina 3 341 3 100 3 400 300 10%
Turkey 925 1 075 1 400 325 30%Sunflower oil production, thsd t
World15 339 13 938 15 371 1 433 10%
European Union 2 937 2 740 2 925 185 7%
Argentina 1 565 1 260 1 380 120 10%
Turkey 718 769 868 99 13%
Source: USDA, September 2013
Production outlook
The situation on the world market
Source: Oil World
Import demand outlook
Commodity Country 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 FYear Change
thsd t %
Sunflower oil imports, thsd t
World7 130 6 175 7 030 855 14%
India 1 151 950 1 100 150 16%
European Union 1 014 920 900 -20 -2%
Egypt 863 610 780 170 28%
Turkey 681 640 650 10 2%
China 122 340 450 110 32%
Iraq 476 390 450 60 15%
Iran 300 180 250 70 39%
South Africa 152 170 180 10 6%
Algeria 229 45 170 125 278%
Saudi Arabia 120 95 120 25 26%
Others 2 022 1 835 1 980 145 8%
Traditionally sunflower oil has a price premium
over other vegetable oils
450,0
650,0
850,0
1050,0
1250,0
1450,0
1650,0
1850,0
No
v-0
6Ja
n-0
7M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-0
7Se
p-0
7N
ov-
07
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
l-0
9Se
p-0
9N
ov-
09
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0Ja
n-1
1M
ar-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
l-1
1Se
p-1
1N
ov-
11
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-1
3Se
p-1
3
Vegetable oils prices, $/MT
Sunflower oil (FOB Black Sea)
Sunflower oil (FOB Argent)
Soybean oil (FOB Argent)
Palm olein RBD (FOB Mal)
However at the start of 2013/14 the world sunseed complex is under pressure owing to the prospective record crops to be harvested in key countries
Conclusions
For the last 10 years, global sunseed complex showed a significant progress of
production and trade development, and the leading role as suppliers was played by
Ukraine and Russia.
The world market faces strong expansion of global vegetable oils consumption, at that
sunflower oil has an outstanding task to satisfy food demand, especially speaking about
high-quality healthy oils. Since 2000, world consumption of sunflower oil increased by
66% - to 13.7 mln t.
World production of sunflower oil almost doubled since 2000 – to around 15.4 mln t,
expected in 2013/14. Ukraine and Russia are the undoubted leaders in the world
production of sunflower oil and together provide a half of the world production of the
commodity (Ukraine 27%, Russia 22%).
Global sunflower oil trade to more than triple during 2000/01-2013/14 – to 6.8 mln t.
Russia and Ukraine represent 75% of sun oil exports to the global market (Ukraine alone
– 57%). Since 2000, their common share in exports increased from just 30%.
Strong demand for sunflower oil globally contributed to expansion of import
geography. For the last 10 years, world import of sun oil increased by 3 times.
Conclusions
Leadership of the Black Sea sun oil is provided by favorable geographic location
of the region, developing crushing industry and logistics, and of course, good
quality and attractive price
According to APK-Inform, in 2013/14, Ukraine & Russia together will harvest
record 18.6 million tones of sunseed (+7% year-on-year), produce 7.54 million
tones of sun oil (+5%) and export 4.6 million tones of sun oil (+10%).
The supply pressure from the bearish 2013/14 outlook has improved the
competitiveness of the Black Sea sunflower oil for delivery until October 2013. With
the current price discount of sun oil from other soft oils, it is likely that sunflower
oil will have a great future to increase its share at all markets and continue gaining
new markets.
Welcome to ourinternational conferences!
Thank you for attention!धन्यवाद
www.apk-inform.com
