STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES

(OMES – formerly Office of State Finance)

November 1, 2013*

Shelly Paulk

Revenue Analyst

*To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures

(In Millions)

Actual Collections

Appropriations

$527.2$297.3($104.3)

$503$596.1

OFFICIAL ESTIMATE – FY’14

$6,726.8m

$6,572.1m$6,566.8m

Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2013 – Ave. 3.38%

Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY-2014) – Ave. 2.76%

Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 3.5%) and ROADS increases

Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2014 Actuals – Normalized Ave. 4.12%

$6,902.8m

$298.9$156.9

$429.1

Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OMES actual numbers and effects of current law.

$5,889.3

PROJECTIONS

General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions

(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) Ave. 6.3% Growth

Ave. 19.7% Growth

Ave. 1.3% Growth

Ave. 5.3% Growth

Ave. 2% Growth

OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS

FY-2015 – FY-2016

SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS

JUNE BOE EST.

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year)

6.6%6.8%

7.0%

12.6%

(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES)

1.1%10.6%

7.5%

ACTUALS Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax

Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding

7.2%

JUNE BOE ESTIMATE