County Fiscal Outlook February 2, 2010. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY

County Fiscal Outlook

February 2, 2010

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Outline

• Economic Environment

• Revenue Outlook

• Budget Strategies FY 2010

• Budget Challenges


• Summary

Outline


• Revenue Outlook




• Summary

Economic Environment

• October 13 Dr. Zingale

• December 15 Scott Skraban

• January 5 Dr. Snaith

• January 25 Dr. Baker

Dr. Snaith

Presentations


• Florida’s unemployment

rate reached 11.8% in

December

• Including those that are

underemployed

unemployment rate

rises to 19.5%

Unemployment Rates


0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%

8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

% U

nem

plo

ym

en

t

Orange County Florida US


$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$143,500

$319,968

$159,716

Orange County Average Residential Sale Prices


Statewide Foreclosures 302,161


Orange County Foreclosure Filings

2006 2007 2008 2009

5,067

11,351

26,131

*31,000

* Projected

2006 2007 2008 2009


Orange County Housing Starts

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Single-Family Multi-Family

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

10,863

1,661

440

26


Outline


• Revenue Outlook




• Summary

• Tourist Development Tax • Building Permits• Utility Connection Fees

Enterprise Revenues

Revenue Outlook

$163 $168

$142 $138

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

Millio

ns

2007 2008 2009 2010Budget

Revenue Outlook

Tourist Development Tax

-15.4%3.2%25.5% -3.0%

$20 $19

$14

$8$7

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

Millio

ns

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Budget

Revenue Outlook

Building Permit Revenue

-2.5% -29.1% -40.8% -13.8%

$45 $44

$27

$9 $9

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Millio

ns

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Budget

Revenue Outlook

Utility Connection Fees

-2.1% -39.4% -64.4% Flat

• Property Taxes

• Sales Tax

• Public Service Tax

• Impact Fees

• Recording Fees

Revenue Outlook

NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT

Revenue Outlook

2010 Property AppraiserAssessment Date

TaxableValueEstimate

PreliminaryTaxableValue

FinalTaxableValue

StateTaxableValueEstimate

Revenue Outlook 2011 and Beyond• Property Tax Outlook–FY 2011 – (10%)

• Sales Tax –FY 2011 - (2.0%)

Revenue Outlook

Revenue Outlook

• Countywide Property Tax– Millage rate 4.4347 down from 5.1639 in FY 2007

• Sheriff MSTU– Millage rate 1.8043 down from 2.1234 in FY 2007

• Fire MSTU– Millage rate 2.2437 down from 2.5862 in FY 2007

• Sales Tax• PST • State Revenue Sharing

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010

Mil

lion

s

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

PST

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$853

($89)

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

Major Revenue Sources

Revenue Outlook

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mil

lion

s

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

PST

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$853

($89)

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

$784

$385

$84

$105

$102

$85

($69)-10%


Revenue Outlook

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mil

lion

s

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

PST

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$853

($89)

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

$784

$385

$84

$105

$102

$85

($69)


Revenue Outlook

Three MainProperty TaxLevies

Countywide

SheriffFire

Revenue Outlook

• Countywide Property Tax$385M

• Sheriff MSTU $ 84M

• Fire MSTU$105M

TOTAL$574M

Three Major Property Taxes

$574

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mil

lions

Orange County Property Tax Estimates

Revenue Outlook

$574

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mil

lions


$711

Revenue Outlook

$574 $579$617

$658

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mil

lions


$711 $705

Revenue Outlook

0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%

$574 $579$617

$658

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mil

lions


$711 $705

Revenue Outlook

0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%

Outline


• Revenue Outlook




• Summary

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010

Mil

lion

s

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

PST

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$853

($89)

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87


Budget Strategies FY 2010

• Reduced Operating Budgets

• Used Prior Year Cash Savings

• Froze CIP Projects

• Adjusted Reserves

$60M

$30M


• Public Safety -3.2%

• Outside Agencies -3.4%

• General Government -12.1%



2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Em

plo

yees

General County Employees (Excludes: Const. Offices, Enterprise Operations, and Public Safety)

Outline


• Revenue Outlook




• Summary

Cost cutting measures to conserve cashPast investments in infrastructureReduction in Risk Management costsHealthy reserves

Budget Challenges

Good News

Bad News

Rising unemployment & foreclosuresEconomic uncertaintyDeclining revenuesState budget deficit/unfunded mandatesIncreasing service needs

Public Safety• Sheriff

– Largest budget in county– Budget consists primarily of personnel costs and

fuel

• Corrections– Budget highly dependent on inmate population– Medical care costs– Legislative impacts

• Fire Rescue– New stations and equipment replacement on

hold– Various programs on hold– Trend not sustainable

Budget Challenges

Health Services and Family Services• PCAN

– Increases in healthcare costs and expensive secondary care creates financial challenges

– Restructure program to control costs

• Medicaid– Medicaid enrollment is increasing significantly– Healthcare reform proposals advocate extending

Medicaid to more individuals– Changes in State law may further exacerbate

budget shortfall

• Family Services Programs– Increasing demand for mental health and

homeless issues– Funding for safety net programs

Budget Challenges

Budget Challenges

• Administrative Services– Escalating maintenance costs – Fuel price volatility– Lease obligations

• Community & Environmental Services– Operating and maintaining current parks– Limited funding for Total Maximum Daily

Load (TMDL)/water quality

• Public Works– Providing adequate O&M funding continues

to be a challenge– Level of services have been reduced– CIP challenges

Admin. Services, C & E Services, Public Works

• LYNX– Current funding $35 million– Impact of 7% reduction

• Healthcare– $96 million program covering 9,000

employees and 19,000 members

– Medical trend is 9% increase

– Future funding challenges

• Employee Benefits– Structural changes

Budget Challenges

LYNX and Employee Benefits

Outline


• Revenue Outlook




• Summary


General Government

$254M

Public Safety$482M

Outside Agencies $142M

FY 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

Public Safety$482M

Public Safety2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

• Sheriff $184M

• Fire Rescue 145 • Corrections 146• Other 7TOTAL $482M


FY 2010

• Administrative Services $46M• Family Services 45• Health Services 43• Parks & Recreation 30• Comm. & Environ. Services 20• Growth Management 10• Other 60

TOTAL $254M

General Government

$254M

FY 2010

General Government2010 Tax Based Operating Budget


• Constitutional Officers $ 53M• LYNX 35• Other 54 (CRAs, Outside Agencies, Courts, CRP)

TOTAL $142M


Outside Agencies2010 Tax Based Operating Budget


FY 2010


General Government

$254M

Public Safety$482M


Tax Based Operating Budget

General Government

$254M

Public Safety$482M


Tax Based Operating Budget

$70M Reduction


• Savings from FY 2009 Budget

• CIP Adjustments

• Operating Budget Cuts


• Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M

• CIP Adjustments



• Commuter Rail $35M

• Corrections $10M

Total


Capital Improvements Program

$45M

• Commuter Rail $35M

• Corrections $10M

Total


Capital Improvements Program

$45M

$30M Cash Funding

$15M Finance


• CIP Adjustments $15M





• Operating Budget Cuts $40M


• 7% budget cuts for BCC & Constitutional Offices– Cut programs

– Reduce level of service

– Delete vacant positions

– Possible layoffs


Operating Budget Cuts

• Direct impact on employees– Wage freeze

– Mandatory 5 day furloughs

– Changes in health care benefits & co-pays

– Early retirement incentives– Appointed BCC employees will lose 4 days of

administrative leave



• Outside agencies will have their budget cut by 7%





• Operating Budget Cuts $40M


$70 Million

Outline


• Revenue Outlook




• Summary

• Economic uncertainty

• Decreasing revenues

• No new taxes

• Balance budget

– Savings

– CIP adjustments

– 7% decrease in operating budgets

Summary

• Public Safety– Sheriff’s Office– Corrections– Fire Rescue

Summary – Next Steps

February 2, 2010

• Health Services and Family Services– PCAN, Medicaid– Family Services Programs

• Community & Environmental Services, Public Works– Parks, TMDL– Public Works

February 16, 2010

• LYNX

• Administrative Services– Facilities, Fleet, Leases

• Employee Health Care and Benefits

Summary – Next Steps

February 23, 2010

County Fiscal Outlook

February 2, 2010

Documents

County Fiscal Outlook February 2, 2010. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY