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South Korean Energy Outlook: Demand, Supply, & Policy
October 12, 2015 Colorado Springs
South Korea 13th Largest Economy 5th in Asia-‐Pacific aHer China, Japan, India, and Australia GDP is only $40 billion less than Australia, but over $520 billion greater than next largest in the Asia Pacific (Indonesia)
Source: US Energy InformaTon AdministraTon
Korea’s Recent Energy Policies
• Has acknowledged the need to reduce emissions and increase efficiency since 1987
• As early as 1989, legislaTve debate about requiring uTliTes and manufacturers to scrub emissions
• Energy sector was the only part of the economy not liberalized in 1993 aHer the transiTon to democracy
• Price controls were finally eliminated on all fuels in 1998
Korea’s Recent Energy Policies
• In 1997, the Ten Year NaTonal Plan for Energy set 2006 as the deadline to develop new technology to diversify energy mix – solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, wind, hydro, fuel cells, coal liquefac0on and gasifica0on, Tdal, waste gasifica0on, geothermal, etc.
• In 1999, alternaTve energies only accounted for 1.3% of all of Korea’s energy supply, of which 96% was waste and biomass – gasificaTon of municipal solid waste since 2001
Korea’s Recent Energy Policies
• Had a feed-‐in tariff system to promote alternaTves and renewables from 2005-‐2012
• Replaced with Renewable Porfolio Standards in 2012 due to persistent low adopTon of alternaTves by uTliTes
• Began an Emissions Trading Scheme in January 2015 (2nd largest globally aHer EU) – covers 525 business enTTes from 23 sectors
• TargeTng a 37% emissions reducTon below BAU by 2030
Korea’s Energy Mix
• Oil consumpTon was 66% of total at peak in mid-‐90s
• Rise in coal, gas & nuclear accounts for oil’s decline
• Nuclear capacity goal of 43% of all electricity by 2029
Korea’s Energy Mix
• Higher emissions targets resulted in 4 fewer coal plants planned (25à21)
• Coal projected as 32.3% of total 2029 energy consumpTon
• Natural gas projected as 24.8% in 2029
Korea’s Electricity GeneraTon by Fuel, 2000-‐2015
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan-‐00
Oct-‐00
Jul-‐0
1
Apr-‐02
Jan-‐03
Oct-‐03
Jul-‐0
4
Apr-‐05
Jan-‐06
Oct-‐06
Jul-‐0
7
Apr-‐08
Jan-‐09
Oct-‐09
Jul-‐1
0
Apr-‐11
Jan-‐12
Oct-‐12
Jul-‐1
3
Apr-‐14
Jan-‐15
Source: InternaTonal Energy Agency, Monthly Electricity StaTsTcs, Revised Historical Data -‐ June 2015.
Coal • Has ~139MMst of
recoverable coal (mostly anthracite)
• 60% used for electricity producTon, 40% by industry and manufacturing
• Imports from Australia (42%), Indonesia (28%), Russia (14%), Canada (10%), US (3%), China (2%)
• GE supplied systems for Korea’s 1st gasificaTon plant, Taean IGCC
Natural Gas • Negligible domesTc & offshore
reserves • Price is nearly 1/3 of what it
was 18 months ago • 2nd largest importer of LNG
globally • KOGAS is effecTve monopoly on
imports, sales, & distribuTon • Imports from Qatar (35%),
Indonesia (14%), Oman (10%), Malaysia (10%), Nigeria (9%), Yemen (8%)
• Contracts in place for imports from Sabine Pass (2017, 20 yrs) and Freeport (2019, onake)
Future Demand
• Electricity demand expected to increase 2.2% annually to 2029, reaching 657 TWh/yr
• Export market slowdown & aging populaTon may reduce demand in coming years
• 4 nuclear plants under construcTon, 8 more planned
• 21 coal plants called for in gov’t energy plan must apply “best available technology”
• Gov’t has commired to invest in Coal to Liquid and Carbon Capture pilot plants, but no CCS requirement for new coal plants