Latin america solar demand outlook executive summary

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Latin America PV Market Overview

Market Forecast 2012-2016 - Q3, 2012 -

Prepared by ClearSky Advisors Inc.

© ClearSky Advisors Inc. 20-Dec-2012

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© 2012 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Latin America PV Market Overview

Table of Contents

About This Report ................................................................................................................. 7

Latin America at a Glance ...................................................................................................... 7

Summary ............................................................................................................................... 7

Market Forecast .................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 1: Cumulative Solar PV (2011-2016), Latin America ................................................................................... 8

Figure 2: Solar PV Installations by Market Segment (2012-2016) ....................................................................... 8

Overview of High-Growth Markets .................................................................................................................................. 9

Figure 3: Cumulative Solar PV: Chile, Mexico, Brazil, and Dominican Republic (2012-2016)................. 9

Chile ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Mexico .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Brazil ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9

The Dominican Republic....................................................................................................................................................... 9

Market Forecast Assumptions ........................................................................................................................................ 10

Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Economic Overview ............................................................................................................. 11

Figure 4: Key Economic Metrics (2011), Caribbean, By Country ........................................................................ 11

Figure 5: Key Economic Metrics (2011), Mexico/Central America, By Country .......................................... 12

Figure 6: Key Economic Metrics (2011), South America, By Country ............................................................... 12

Fundamental Market Potential ............................................................................................ 13

Figure 7: Distributed Generation Market Potential at Various Installed Costs for the Caribbean ..... 13

Figure 8: Distributed Generation Market Potential at Various Installed Costs for Mexico/Central

America .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Mexico ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Central America ..................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Figure 9: Distributed Generation Market Potential at Various Installed Costs for South America .... 14

Brazil .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14

Chile ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Argentina ................................................................................................................................................................................. 14

Figure 10: Utility-Scale Market Potential at Various Installed Costs for the Caribbean, By Country

............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Caribbean ................................................................................................................................................................................. 14

Figure 11: Utility-Scale Market Potential at Various Installed Costs for Mexico/Central America, By

Country ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 15

Mexico ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 15

Central America ..................................................................................................................................................................... 15

Figure 12: Utility-Scale Market Potential at Various Installed Costs for South America, By Country

............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15

Brazil .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15

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Chile ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 15

Electricity Market Overview ................................................................................................ 16

Supply and Demand ............................................................................................................................................................. 16

Caribbean ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 16

Mexico and Central America ............................................................................................................................................ 16

South America ........................................................................................................................................................................ 16

Figure 14: 2011 Electricity Supply (GWh), Caribbean, By Country ................................................................... 17

Figure 15: 2011 Electricity Supply (GWh), Mexico/Central America, By Country ..................................... 17

Figure 16: 2011 Electricity Supply (GWh), South America, By Country .......................................................... 18

Electricity Prices ................................................................................................................................................................... 18

Figure 17: Avg. Retail Residential, Commercial and Industrial Electricity Rates 2011, the Caribbean

............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18

Figure 18: Avg. Retail Residential, Commercial and Industrial Electricity Rates 2011,

Mexico/Central America ........................................................................................................................................................ 19

Figure 19: Avg. Retail Residential, Commercial and Industrial Electricity Rates 2011, South America

............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19

Market Dynamics .................................................................................................................................................................. 19

Caribbean ................................................................................................................................................................................. 19

Mexico/Central America .................................................................................................................................................... 19

South America ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20

Figure 20: Key Regulators, Generators and Distributors in the Caribbean ................................................... 20

Figure 21: Key Regulators, Generators and Distributors in Mexico/Central America ............................. 21

Figure 22: Key Regulators, Generators and Distributors in South America .................................................. 22

Solar PV Market Overview ................................................................................................... 23

Installed Capacity ................................................................................................................................................................. 23

Figure 23: Totalled Installed PV Capacity, By Country ............................................................................................ 24

Installed Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................ 24

Figure 24: Utility-Scale Installed Costs ($/Watt), Range for Planned and Installed Projects

(Caribbean, Mexico/Central America, South America) ........................................................................................... 24

Insolation ................................................................................................................................................................................. 25

Figure 25: Insolation, Caribbean, By Country .............................................................................................................. 25

Figure 26: Insolation, Mexico/Central America, By Country ................................................................................ 25

Figure 27: Insolation, South America, By Country ..................................................................................................... 25

Investors and Developers ................................................................................................................................................. 26

20 Key Investors and Investment Agencies Active in Latin America .............................................................. 26

Figure 28: Financing, Caribbean, By Country .............................................................................................................. 26

Figure 29: Financing, Mexico/Central America, By Country ................................................................................ 27

Figure 30: Financing, South America, By Country ..................................................................................................... 28

50 Key Developers and Manufacturers Active in Latin America ...................................................................... 29

Figure 31: Key Developers and Manufacturers, Caribbean, By Country ......................................................... 29

Figure 32: Key Developers and Manufacturers, Mexico/Central America, By Country............................ 30

Figure 33:Key Developers and Manufacturers, South America, By Country ................................................. 31

Solar PV Policy Overview ..................................................................................................... 36

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Renewable Energy Targets ............................................................................................................................................... 36

Figure 34: Renewable Energy Targets (% of electricity from renewables), Caribbean ........................... 36

Figure 35: Renewable Energy Targets (% of electricity from renewables), Mexico/Central America

............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36

Figure 36: Renewable Energy Targets (% of electricity from renewables, South America ................... 36

Renewable Energy Laws and Incentives..................................................................................................................... 37

Figure 37: Renewable Energy Laws and Initiatives, Caribbean, By Country ................................................ 37

Figure 38: Renewable Energy Laws and Initiatives, Mexico/Central America, By Country .................. 40

Figure 39: Renewable Energy Laws and Initiatives, South America, By Country ....................................... 43

Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 49

Appendix A: Installation Forecasts by Market Segment....................................................................................... 49

Figure 40: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) ............................................................................. 49

Figure 41: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) .................................................................... 49

Figure 42: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) .............................................................................. 49

Appendix B: Market Forecast, by Country ................................................................................................................. 50

B. 1. Caribbean ....................................................................................................................................................................... 50

B.1.1. Barbados Market Forecast ................................................................................................................................... 50

Figure 43: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Barbados ....................................................................................... 50

Figure 44: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Barbados ....................................................... 50

Figure 45: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Barbados .............................................. 50

Figure 46: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Barbados ......................................................... 50

B.1.2. Haiti Market Forecast ............................................................................................................................................. 51

Figure 47: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Haiti ................................................................................................ 51

Figure 48: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Haiti ................................................................. 51

Figure 49: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Haiti ........................................................ 51

Figure 50: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Haiti .................................................................. 51

B.1.3. Jamaica Market Forecast ....................................................................................................................................... 52

Figure 51: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Jamaica .......................................................................................... 52

Figure 52: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Jamaica .......................................................... 52

Figure 53: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Jamaica ................................................. 52

Figure 54: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Jamaica ............................................................ 52

B.1.4. Dominican Republic Market Forecast ............................................................................................................. 53

Figure 55: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Dominican Republic ................................................................. 53

Figure 56: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Dominican Republic ................................. 53

Figure 57: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Dominican Republic ........................ 53

Figure 58: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Dominican Republic .................................. 53

B.1.5. St. Lucia Market Forecast ...................................................................................................................................... 54

Figure 59: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) St. Lucia ......................................................................................... 54

Figure 60: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) St. Lucia .......................................................... 54

Figure 61: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) St. Lucia ................................................. 54

Figure 62: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) St. Lucia ........................................................... 54

B.1.6. Cuba, Turks and Caicos, Trinidad and Tobago, BVI Market Forecast ................................................. 55

Figure 63: Cumulative Solar PV: (2012-2016) Cuba, Turks and Caicos, Trinidad and Tobago, BVI . 55

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Figure 64: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Cuba, Turks & Caicos, Trinidad &

Tobago, BVI .................................................................................................................................................................................. 55

Figure 65: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Cuba, Turks & Caicos, Trinidad &

Tobago, BVI .................................................................................................................................................................................. 55

Figure 66: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Cuba, Turks & Caicos, Trinidad &

Tobago, BVI .................................................................................................................................................................................. 55

B.2: Mexico and Central America ................................................................................................................................... 56

B.2.1. Mexico Market Forecast ........................................................................................................................................ 56

Figure 67: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Mexico ............................................................................................ 56

Figure 68: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Mexico ............................................................. 56

Figure 69: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Mexico .................................................... 56

Figure 70: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Mexico .............................................................. 56

B.2.2. Guatemala Market Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 57

Figure 71: Cumulative Solar PV: Guatemala ............................................................................................................... 57

Figure 72: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Guatemala .................................................... 57

Figure 73: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Guatemala ........................................... 57

Figure 74: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Guatemala ...................................................... 57

B.2.3. Nicaragua Market Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 58

Figure 75: Cumulative Solar PV: Nicaragua................................................................................................................ 58

Figure 76: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Nicaragua ..................................................... 58

Figure 77: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Nicaragua ............................................ 58

Figure 78: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Nicaragua ...................................................... 58

B.2.4. Honduras Market Forecast ................................................................................................................................... 59

Figure 79: Cumulative Solar PV: Honduras ................................................................................................................. 59

Figure 80: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Honduras ....................................................... 59

Figure 81: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Honduras .............................................. 59

Figure 82: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Honduras ........................................................ 59

B.2.5. Costa Rica Market Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 60

Figure 83: Cumulative Solar PV: Costa Rica ................................................................................................................ 60

Figure 84: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Costa Rica ...................................................... 60

Figure 85: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Costa Rica ............................................. 60

Figure 86: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Costa Rica ....................................................... 60

B.2.6. Panama Market Forecast....................................................................................................................................... 61

Figure 87: Cumulative Solar PV: Panama .................................................................................................................... 61

Figure 88: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Panama .......................................................... 61

Figure 89: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Panama ................................................. 61

Figure 90: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Panama ........................................................... 61

B.2.7. Belize Market Forecast........................................................................................................................................... 62

Figure 91: Cumulative Solar PV: Belize ......................................................................................................................... 62

Figure 92: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Belize ............................................................... 62

Figure 93: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Belize ...................................................... 62

Figure 94: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Belize ................................................................ 62

B.2.8. El Salvador Market Forecast ................................................................................................................................ 63

Figure 95: Cumulative Solar PV: El Salvador .............................................................................................................. 63

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Figure 96: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) El Salvador.................................................... 63

Figure 97: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) El Salvador .......................................... 63

Figure 98: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) El Salvador ..................................................... 63

B.3: South America ............................................................................................................................................................... 64

B.3.1. Brazil Market Forecast ........................................................................................................................................... 64

Figure 99: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Brazil .............................................................................................. 64

Figure 100: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Brazil ............................................................ 64

Figure 101: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Brazil ................................................... 64

Figure 102: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Brazil ............................................................. 64

B.3.2. Chile Market Forecast ............................................................................................................................................. 65

Figure 103: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Chile .............................................................................................. 65

Figure 104: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Chile............................................................... 65

Figure 105: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Chile ..................................................... 65

Figure 106: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Chile ................................................................ 65

B.3.3. Argentina Market Forecast................................................................................................................................... 66

Figure 107: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Argentina ................................................................................... 66

Figure 108: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Argentina .................................................... 66

Figure 109: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Argentina ........................................... 66

Figure 110: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Argentina ..................................................... 66

B.3.4. Ecuador Market Forecast ...................................................................................................................................... 67

Figure 111: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Ecuador....................................................................................... 67

Figure 112: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Ecuador ....................................................... 67

Figure 113: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Ecuador .............................................. 67

Figure 114: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Ecuador ........................................................ 67

B.3.5. Peru Market Forecast ............................................................................................................................................. 68

Figure 115: Cumulative Solar PV: (2011-2016) Peru .............................................................................................. 68

Figure 116: High Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Peru ............................................................... 68

Figure 117: Expected Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Peru ...................................................... 68

Figure 118: Low Case Annual Installations: 2012-2016 (MW) Peru ................................................................ 68

Appendix C: Free-trade Agreements ............................................................................................................................ 69

Figure 119: Free-Trade Agreements (FTA), Caribbean, By Country ................................................................. 69

Figure 120: Free-Trade Agreements (FTA), Mexico/Central America, By Country ................................... 69

Figure 121: Free-Trade Agreements (FTA), Latin America, By Country ......................................................... 70

Appendix D: Abbreviations............................................................................................................................................... 71

Figure 122: Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................................................... 71

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About This Report

This report contains a summary of solar PV market fundamentals as well as an outline of policies,

initiatives, and general market dynamics that have informed a market forecast for Latin America through

2016. The report covers the South American markets of Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru,

Colombia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Paraguay and Uruguay in addition to Mexico and all of Central America

including Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Guatemala and Belize. The report also

covers the Caribbean islands of Barbados, Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Trinidad and

Tobago, St. Lucia, Turks and Caicos, and the British Virgin Islands (BVI). This document is part of a series

of reports that focuses on key PV markets in Latin America. Together, these reports provide a

comprehensive view of the opportunities that exist within this emerging market for solar PV. Note: All $

values are in USD.

Latin America at a Glance

Latin America is characterized by emerging markets with a growing middle class, good solar radiation,

and high electricity prices. With a growing population of nearly 600 million people and an electricity

supply mix that is largely dependent upon oil, gas, and hydro, many nations in Latin America are looking

to diversify their electricity supply mix through solar PV in order to obtain a more reliable and affordable

energy supply to meet a growing demand. Solar PV is currently a niche market in Latin America, with

higher installation costs compared with more developed PV markets. Yet costs are expected to fall as

economies of scale and efficiencies are gained. While some regions will grow based on the introduction

of policy incentives, other regions will grow based on market fundamentals without the need for

incentives or subsidies. PV is expected to become a cost-competitive option with conventional energy

sources over the next five years in many regions throughout Latin America.

Summary

Expected Installations: It is expected that 4.5 GW will be installed in Latin America from 2012-

2016

Primary Drivers:

o Pilot projects by governments in the utility-scale sector

o Introduction of policies to drive growth in all sectors

o Market fundamentals that allow PV to compete with conventional energy sources

Recommendation: It is recommended that developers and manufactures match their core

competencies to needs on the ground and develop partnerships with local players. The majority

of growth is expected in the utility-scale sector, but there will also be opportunities in the

residential and commercial sectors.

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Market Forecast

Figure 1: Cumulative Solar PV (2011-2016), Latin America

Figure 2: Solar PV Installations by Market Segment (2012-2016)

High Case Assumptions Installation costs fall quickly thus driving development throughout the region. Policies are

enacted to enable connection and incent growth in several key countries. Pilot projects are

successful and lead to further development. Planned projects are completed on schedule.

Expected Case

Assumptions

Installation costs fall at a moderate rate to drive market growth throughout the region. Policy

development is slow but progress is made in several key countries. Planned projects experience

moderate delays but most are eventually completed.

Low Case Assumptions Installed costs fall at less aggressive rates than anticipated. Necessary policies fail to

materialize in many countries. Planned projects experience significant delays and many are not

completed.

Solar PV Installations in MW (2012-2016)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2012-2016

Total

Cumulative

Total

High Case 66 904 1,465 2,175 3,010 7,620 7,628

Expected Case 25 519 777 1,278 1,856 4,454 4,462

Low Case 16 198 382 632 782 2,011 2,019

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MW

Cumulative Solar PV (2011-2016)

High Case Expected Case Low Case

Market Segmentation:

PV installations over the next 5 years are

expected to occur in all sectors, driven by a

combination of market fundamentals that allow

PV to compete with conventional energy

sources, policy incentives to drive growth, and a

number of planned projects in the utility-scale

sector. Note: Detailed segmentation for each

scenario is provided in Appendix A.

Note: Detailed segmentation for each

scenario is provided in Appendix A.

Residential-scale ≤ 10 kW; Commercial-scale 10 kW – 1 MW; Utility -scale ≥ 1 MW. Unless otherwise stated, all figures are MW DC.

Utility64%

Commercial26%

Residential10%

Solar Installations by Market Segment (2012-2016)

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Market Forecast Assumptions

The assumptions that support the market forecast are based on a combination of market fundamentals,

economic factors, policy drivers, and planned projects. The report addresses each of these variables that

are integrated into the market forecast.

Methodology

ClearSky Advisors’ Latin America PV Market Overview is the aggregation of 27 independent studies of

individual countries and regions in Central America, South America and the Caribbean. At the core of

each independent study is a 5-year forecast of PV development within the country or region, the

formulation of which followed a consistent procedure across all regions.

The elements that inform each forecast fall into three broad categories

Market fundamentals and economic factors

Renewable energy policy drivers

Pipelines of announced and planned projects

Market and economic factors influencing PV development include retail electricity prices and electricity

demand in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, solar insolation and the resulting capacity

factors, average PV installation costs, time of use electricity pricing, and a number of other factors

distinct to each region. This data is collected through primary and secondary sources and used to inform

ClearSky Advisors’ propriety Dynamic Forecasting Tool (DFT) to determine the volume of projects

expected to be installed in the absence of additional policy incentives.

In addition to this fundamental demand, any policies in the region are analyzed to determine the volume

of installations each program will incent. This analysis is based on the detailed nature, budget, and

mandated goals of each policy in addition to the impact of similar programs in similar regions elsewhere

in the world.

Finally, the forecast is informed by the pipeline of commercial and utility-scale projects that have been

planned or announced by developers and/or government agencies. Information is gathered from

primary and secondary sources to determine the likelihood that these projects will be completed and the

anticipated commercial operation date for each.

Uncertainty in future conditions are accounted for by considering three distinct scenarios: High Case,

Expected Case, and Low Case. The precise assumptions informing these scenarios differ region by

region and, taken together, the scenarios provide a range of likely PV market development over the next

five years under a variety of conditions.

Combining the forecasts for all 27 countries and regions together provides a robust, bottom-up PV

forecast for the entire Latin American region.

In addition to the forecast, detailed information is provided for each region, describing the

Economic environment

The conditions required for PV to compete with other sources of generation (based on analysis

from the DFT)

Electricity market, prices, and mix of electricity generating sources

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Key players active in PV development (developers, investors, government agencies)

PV market activity to date

Solar insolation and capacity factors

Renewable energy and solar specific policy programs and incentives

This information was gathered through secondary sources where available and verified through direct

primary research with people and agencies actively involved in PV development in the region.

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2013 Latin America PV Market Overview

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Latin america solar demand outlook executive summary