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SolarPower Europe Webinar
IHS Global Solar Market Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020
5 April 2016 at 15:00
SolarPower Europe Webinar
SPEAKER
Josefin Berg Senior Analyst IHS SOLAR RESEARCH GROUP
MODERATOR
Michael Schmela Executive Advisor SOLARPOWER EUROPE
IHS Global Solar Market
Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET
DEMAND OUTLOOK 2016 - 2020
SolarPower Europe webinar
APRIL 2016
Josefin Berg – Senior Analyst Solar Research
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT WE DO
© 2016 IHS
We provide information, analytics and
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They depend on our information and
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about everything from day-to-day
operations to long-term investments. ANALYTICS
EXPERTISE
INFORMATION
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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OUR FOCUS IS ON KEY INDUSTRIES
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Why clients rely on our solar research…
25 solar analysts covering every aspect of the dynamic solar industry. Our analysts are located across the world in six locations throughout Europe, Asia, and the USA. Supporting IHS offices in Latin America, India, Japan, and the Middle East
Extensive coverage of both upstream and downstream segments provides all of your solar industry intelligence needs in one place ensuring data is robust as we track everything solar
IHS Energy, IHS Chemicals, IHS Economics and IHS Automotive provides IHS Solar with unrivalled analysis of related industries, allowing us to produce credible forecasts for how the solar and energy storage industries will develop.
Our focus on real primary data collection and analysis has allowed us to produce the industry’s most accurate market data and forecasts. We aim to be always be the first to react to new trends and changes in the solar industry
IHS solar research is supported by the industry’s largest team of analysts and provides
unrivalled depth, breadth and expertise
Large Global
Analyst TeamUpstream and
Downstream
Coverage
Understanding
of Parallel
Markets
Credible Data
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Marketbuzz is the annual snapshot of the PV industry.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Marketbuzz presents the highlights of the most recent
IHS solar research
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
1. PV DEMAND: FORECASTS AND MARKETS 7
Global PV Demand 7
Major PV markets country profiles 17
Three main markets
China 18
Japan 31
United States 42
Other major markets 54
Australia 55
Canada 62
Chile 73
France 79
Germany 89
India 103
Netherlands 117
South Africa 126
Thailand 135
United Kingdom 141
Emerging PV markets 153
2. PV MODULE SUPPLY CHAIN 162
3. PV INVERTERS 171
4. DOWNSTREAM PV 176
5. ENERGY STORAGE IN PV 186
ABBREVIATIONS, METHODOLOGY AND
NOTES 199
Contents
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
2015 – A RECORD YEAR
Markets
Modules
Inverters
Downstream
Storage
GLOBAL PV DEMAND OUTLOOK
Markets
Modules
Inverters
Storage
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2015 – 31% year on year
growth
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
The three largest markets installed two thirds of all PV
capacity
China32%
Japan19%
USA14%
UK6%
India5%
Germany2%
Chile2%
South Korea
2%
Australia2%
France2%
Other markets
14%
Installed PV capacity 2015 by country
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
• China’s PV installations grew by 48% year-on-year.
• Five year plan upholds continued PV demand through 2020
• Japan peaked in 2015 and will gradually decline as support for large-scale PV declines.
• USA is set to overtake Japan in 2016, by nearly doubling installed capacity.
• ITC extension boosts demand through 2024.
• India projected to become the third largest PV market in 2018.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
In 2015, module
prices stabilised
• PV module prices declined by 9% in
2015 – the first single-digit decrease
since IHS began tracking the market.
• Polysilicon prices declined by over 20%
• Anti-dumping subsidies imposed on
imports into China.
• Module supplier margins improved.
• Improved financial status of suppliers
has enabled a new wave of capacity
expansions.
• South East Asia and India
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
China’s Trina Solar maintained its position as the largest
PV module supplier in 2015, over 5 GW for the first time.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015
Top 10 solar module suppliers shipment in Q3 2015
(Crystalline and Thin Film)
© 2016 IHS
Sh
ipm
en
t (M
W)
Source: IHS
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Inverter prices
declined by 20%
• Intense price pressure continued in
2015 with average price declines across
the market of 20%.
• Global revenues increased, largely due
to booming markets in Asia and
Americas in particular
• Leading Chinese and Japanese
suppliers continued to expand into
international markets and benefit from
growth in their domestic markets. 2015
will likely be the first year on record that
SMA is displaced as number-one PV
inverter supplier by an Asian competitor.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Chinese suppliers dominate the top-ten global rankings
Q3’15 Global PV Inverter Supplier Market RankingRanked in terms of shipments (MWac)
Q3’15
Rank
Company Name HQ Location Q3’15 Market
Share
Q-o-Q Change
1 Sungrow China 11.6% 1.8%
2 Huawei China 11.2% 4.1%
3 SMA Europe 10.7% -1.0%
4 TBEA Sunoasis China 7.6% 3.1%
5 Wuxi Sineng China 6.8% 3.0%
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Downstream: PV project pipelines by region
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa-MiddleEast
Being installed Permitted Planned
PV project pipelines by region
Notes: Data from IHS Solar Deal Tracker January 2016
Source: IHS © 2015 IHS
MW
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
EPC - TBEA overtakes First Solar in 2015
• In 2015, the combined installations of the ten largest companies is
estimated at 9.2 GW.
World PV EPC and integrator rankings
2014 2015 - preliminary Manufacturer EPC Developer Owner
1 First Solar 1 TBEA Sun Oasis
2 SunEdison 2 First Solar
3 TBEA Sun Oasis 3 GCL Solar
4 HT-SAAE 4 Zhongli Talesun Solar
5 GD Solar 5 EDRI 11th Institute
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Storage
installations
tripled in 2015
• Annual storage installations reached
476 MWPV – an three-fold increase over
2014.
• The largest growth came from utility-
scale systems which leapt from 18
MWPV in 2014 to 190 MWPV.
• Germany, Japan and North America
continued to dominate the industry,
accounting for over two-thirds of annual
installations.
• Most notably, the high profile
announcement of Tesla’s home battery –
Powerwall, led to heightened awareness
of the benefits of home energy storage
around the world, helping to stimulate
demand.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Global PV outlook
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
IHS Technology PV forecast methodology
• IHS Technology forecasts PV installations in 100 countries bottom-up
based on current and projected market conditions.
• Country by country analysis of policy and market conditions – primary
research
• Status and evolution of planned projects (in-house global project database
with 45,000 PV projects)
• Near-term demand validated with shipment data (inverters and modules)
• From 2017 to 2020, IHS Technology analyzes ‘top-down’ likely
penetration for solar per region to account for future demand from
currently unidentified markets.
• Power generation and consumption.
• Demand generated from module price decline in oversupply periods.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016Custom presentation for REC Silicon
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Base case assumptions
Current top markets keep up demand.
• China policy continues supporting PV
• Strong US demand in 2019-2020 under the extended ITC conditions
• Accelerated India demand via national and state tenders.
• Continued Japan demand despite slow-down
New markets develop supportive policy schemes.
• Volatile demand as regulators calibrate policy
Module price dynamics spur demand.
• In periods of slow demand, the downward pressure on module prices
restores global demand
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
IHS forecasts global PV demand of 94 GW by 2020
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
China USA Japan
India Rest of Asia Africa & the Middle East
Rest of Americas Europe
IHS base case annual PV installed capacity through 2020
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
MW
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
In 2020, 70% of the demand will come from top-10, down
from 84% in 2015
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
China23%
USA18%
India14%
Japan6%Germany
2%
France2%
Brazil2%
Mexico1%
South Korea1%
Australia1%
Other Markets30%
Annual PV installed capacity 2020
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
APAC will be key driver of solar growth
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Asia Pacific Americas Europe Africa / Middle East
IHS base case total installed PV capacity 2016 - 2020
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
MW
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Module supply
outlook
Key forecast trends
• PV module revenues are predicted to
decline in 2017 due a decline in demand
from the United States. However, annual
growth will recommence from 2018
onwards.
• During 2017 to 2020, PV module
supplier gross margins will stabilize with
continued cost reductions throughout
the supply chain offsetting moderate
price declines.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$/W
dc
ASP ($/W)
Blended module ASP
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
Module price declines support demand growth
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Inverters outlook Key forecast trends
• Competitive pricing for PV inverters will
continue, with pricing to decrease by
10% on average each year through to
2020.
• Generally flat revenues throughout the
forecast period.
• New suppliers are predicted to continue
to enter the United States, contributing
to intense competition and continued
price declines.
• Microinverter revenues are forecast to
grow the fastest of all PV inverter power
classes over the next five years.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Storage outlook Key forecast trends
• The market is predicted to grow by over
50% a year on average through to 2020,
with a wide range of regions emerging
and contributing to growth.
• Self-consumption will remain the major
driver for the residential market.
• New business models will allow systems
to collectively provide services to the
grid, such as grid-balancing and
frequency regulation.
• Cost reductions, versatility and high
energy density mean that Li-ion will
remain the dominant technology.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Marketbuzz – the annual snapshot of the PV industry.
IHS intelligence services – regular in-depth insight.
SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016
IHSTM
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TECHNOLOGY
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Q&A
© 2016 IHS
SOLARPOWER EUROPE – WHAT’S NEXT?
• MAY 12:
Workshop: Solar & Storage Task Force Kick-Off
© 2016 IHS
SolarPower Europe (European Photovoltaic Industry Association)Rue d’Arlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, BelgiumT +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 [email protected] /www.solarpowereurope.org
SolarPower Europe Webinar:
IHS Global Solar Market Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020
SolarPower Europe (European Photovoltaic Industry Association)Rue d’Arlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, BelgiumT +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 [email protected] /www.solarpowereurope.org