South Central Pennsylvania

Housing Recovery Summit

April 29, 2014 - York, PA

A Region in Transition:

Recognizing Demographic

Changes and

their Implications

Center for Rural Pennsylvania

Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009)

Mandates• Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions.

• Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.

Center’s Database

• Pennsylvania’s most comprehensive database on rural trends and conditions

• Grants program “feeds” the database

• Data available on Center’s website or via email

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 (est )

Cities

Boroughs

1st Class Twps

2nd Class Twps

1st C lass Twps

1.5 Million 12%

Boros2.5 Million

20%

Cities3.0 Million

24%

2nd Class Twps

5.4 Million 44%

2040 Population Projections: Data Sources

• Projections were developed by Pennsylvania State Data Center in 2013

• Projections are based on the demographic cohort component model

– Base population, Census 2010– Group quarters populations are held

constant– Applied national fertility and survival rates

to Pennsylvania

• Projections are just that– projections– Useful window to understanding and

preparing for change

Cohort Component Model

Pennsylvania’s Rural and Urban Population, 1950 to 2040 (projected)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (p) 2030 (p) 2040 (p)

71.1%73.1% 74.1% 72.4% 72.6% 72.4% 72.7% 73.2% 73.8% 74.4%

28.9%

26.9%25.9% 27.6% 27.4%

27.6%27.3%

26.8%26.2%

25.6%

RuralUrban

14,132.58813,759,594

13,230,17012,711,308

12,281,05411,881,64311,863,81211,793,90911,319,366

10,498,012

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Population in South Central Region,1950 to 2040 (projected)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)

956,284

1,119,279

1,260,622

1,413,472

1,549,738

1,702,415

1,891,1841,999,876

2,111,3752,196,852

Rate of Population Change in South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

1950 to 1960

1960 to 1970

1970 to 1980

1980 to 1990

1990 to 2000

2000 to 2010

2010 to 2020(p)

2020 to 2030(p)

2030 to 2040(p)

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

17.5%

20.0%

United StatesPennsylvaniaSouth Central Region

Change in Population, 1980 to 2010 and 2010 to 2040

(projected)

Population Change, 1980 to 2010

Population Change, 2010 to 2040

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

South Central Region Age Cohorts

Blue = % Pop. MalesYellow = % Pop. Females

Red = Baby Boomers, Born 1946-64

1970

2010

2040 (proj)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

<55 to 9

10 to 1415 to 19

20-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0

<5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0<5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0

Number of Youth and Senior Citizens in Pennsylvania and South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected)

Pennsylvania (Statewide) South Central Pennsylvania

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p)

2030(p)

2040(p)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p)

2030(p)

2040(p)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Youth, (<20 Years Old)Seniors (65+ Years Old)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Age Dependency Ratio, 1960 to 2040 (proj.)(# Persons Age <20 + Persons Age 65+)/(Persons Age 20 to 64)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

68.0%

85.7%

88.1%

75.2%72.3% 73.2%

67.8%

74.6%

86.0%86.0%

73.0%

89.5% 89.9%

74.9%

70.1%71.7%

69.8%

77.6%

89.5% 90.8%

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

Age Dependency Ratios, 2010 and

2040 (projected)

2010

2040 (projected)

*Age Dependency Ratio(# Persons <20 + # Persons 65+) (# Persons 20 to 64)Data source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Births and Deaths, 1970 to 2040 (projected)

Pennsylvania Births and Deaths

South Central Region Births and Deaths

Data sources: PA Dept. of Health and Pennsylvania State Data Center

1970-75

1975-80

1980-85

1985-90

1990-95

1995-00

2000-05

2005-10

2010-

15(p)

2015-

20(p)

2020-

25(p)

2025-

30(p)

2030-

35(p)

3035-

40(p)

500,000

525,000

550,000

575,000

600,000

625,000

650,000

675,000

700,000

725,000

750,000

775,000

800,000

825,000

850,000

Deaths

Births

1970-75

1975-80

1980-85

1985-90

1990-95

1995-00

2000-05

2005-10

2010-

15(p)

2015-

20(p)

2020-

25(p)

2025-

30(p)

2030-

35(p)

3035-

40(p)

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

Deaths

Births

Natural Population Change* by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected)

*Natural Change = # Births - # DeathsData sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

In-Migration by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Projected Natural Change and Net Migration, 2010 to 2040

Pennsylvania South Central Region

Natural Change(Births - Deaths)165,347, (54%)

Domestic In-

Migration, 24,029,(17%)

Overseas In-

Migration, 114,273, (83%)

Natura

l Change (Births - Deaths) 397,471 (28%)

Domestic In-Migration

148,804 (15%)

Overseas In-Migration, 858,668, (85%)

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Rural and Urban Counties, 2010 and

2040 (projected)

2010Statewide Population

Density = 284 Persons per Square Mile

2040 (proj.)Statewide Population

Density = 316 Persons per Square Mile

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Implication: #1: Housing

# New Housing Permits per 1,000 Population, 1990-2013

• Slower growth in new housing

• Shift in housing demand from large family homes to smaller homes

• Revitalization of housing in older boroughs and cities

• With lower demand, home prices could stabilize.

• Challenge of keeping senior citizens in their homes longer

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

United States

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

Implication #2: Families/Households

Types of Households in South Central Region, 1980 to 2010

• Smaller households.• Fewer households with

children.• Potential increased number

of multi-generational households.

• Likely increase in single person households.

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1980 1990 2000 20100.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

Families with ChildrenMarried CouplesSingle Person Households

Implication #3: Economic Development

# Working Age Adults (20-64) in South Central Region 1950 - 2040 (proj.)

• Potential labor shortages for some businesses

• More older persons in workforce

• Stagnate or lower income tax revenues

• Increase demand for businesses to serve an older population

Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Pennsylvania State Data Center

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p)

2030(p)

2040(p)

552,609

590,657

663,726

807,335

910,846

991,247

1,113,631

1,126,107

1,114,307

1,151,272

Implication #4: Education

• No initial reduction in school taxes

• Potential school building closings in some districts– new building in other districts

Data Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education

Enrollment Changes in Enrollment2010 to 2020 (proj.)

Persons 85+ Years Old in South Central Region, 1960 to 2040 (Projected)

Implication #5: Health Care / Human Services

• Increased demand for:– Home health care

services– Transportation

services– Assisted living

quarters– Medical

specialists focusing on geriatric needs

• Quiet maternity wards, busy geriatric units

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)

7,03410,428

15,906

21,776

30,477

42,270

50,255

61,519

90,709

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Implication #6: Community

Number of Persons Employed in Nonprofit Organization, 2008-12

• Volunteer organizations may find it difficult to recruit members (firefighters, youth soccer coaches, etc.)

• Fewer youth available to participate in organizations (Scouts, baseball, 4-H, etc.)

• Shift in citizens’ needs– youth reading programs at the library versus Meals-on-Wheels.

• With fewer persons working, community organizations may see decline in revenues (United Way, churches, etc.)

• Transfer of wealth from generation to generation

Data Source: 2008-12 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Thank You!

Barry L. Denk, Director

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania

625 Forster Street, Room 902

Harrisburg, PA 17120

717.787.9555

denkb@rural.palegislature.us

www.rural.palegislature.us