SITUATION OVERVIEWAn earthquake with a magnitude of 7.21 occurred in Rush-on district of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast in Tajikistan, at 07:50 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), or 12:50 Tajikistan Local Time on 7 December, 2015.

The earthquake’s epicenter was located 109 kilometers (68 miles) west of Murghob, 133 kilometers (83 miles) northeast of Khorugh and 349 kilometers (217 miles) east of Dushanbe in Tajikistan.

So far 14 aftershocks2 have been recorded on Monday 7 December and Tuesday 8 December, including 13 in Tajikistan, ranging from 4.5 to 5.4 magnitude on Richter scale. One aftershock has been recorded in Krygyzstan, of 5.5 M, which was centered 29 kilometers (18 miles) south-southeast of Chayek at 08:30 UTC.

The location of the 7.2 M earthquake is approximately 10-20 km from Sarez Lake and Usoi Dam in Tajikistan. Af-ter this earthquake, four aftershocks have been recorded near the lake.

The Usoi dam was formed by an earthquake in 1911. Ac-cording to a report by the United Nations Office for Dis-aster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the dam is unstable and poses a potential risk in the event of earthquakes. The four aftershocks in the immediate area indicate a risk of an outburst of the Usoi dam and subsequent flooding of lake Sarez.

Several unconfirmed reports indicate damages to house-holds in the communities living near the epicenter. Ac-cording to the Government of Tajikistan, at least two per-son were trapped and killed under rock-falls.

1 USGS M7.2 - 105km W of Murghob, Tajikistan2 USGS 7 December 2015 Earthquake Summary 3 United Nations report on Usoi landslide dam and Sarez Lake

SITUATIONANALYSISInitial Report - 8 December 2015

TAJIKISTAN EARTHQUAKE 7 DECEMBER 2015

Not Felt

Minor

SmallModerateStrongMajorGreat8.9

Damages Begin Fatalities Rare

Great Devastation Many Fatalities Possible

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0

2.0

0.0

Largest Recorded

E�ects may vary greatly due to construction practices, population density,soil depth, focal depth etc.

RICHTER SCALE

TAJIKISTAN EARTHQUAKES 7 DECEMBER

Time

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

07:50

08:24

08:30

08:55

09:24

10:04

10:34

11:48

13:50

13:51

14:27

15:23

17:51

18:54

Richter Scale

7.24.8

5.5

5.4

4.9

4.8

4.5

Khorugh

Khujand

Qurghonteppa

PAKISTANAFGHANISTAN

CHINA

KYRGYZSTANUZBEKISTAN

INDIA

GORNO-BADAKHSHAN

DISTRICTS OF REPUBLICAN SUBORDINATION

SUGHD

KHATLON

Dushanbe7.2 M

07.12.2015 07:50 UTC

Sarez Lake

Major EarthquakeAftershocks

4.9 M

4.8 M 5.4 M

4.8 M

4.6M4.8 M

LEGEND

7 December 2015 Sources: OCHA, USGS Email: cass@un.org

4.7M

4.5 M

4.5 M

4.5 M

4.6M

4.8 M

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SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015

8 December 2015

SCOPE AND SCALEBased on geospatial analysis4 using the Modified Mer-calli Intensity Scale, 1.44 million people were exposed to light to severe earthquake shaking.

Out of the total exposed population, there are 33,479 people potentially affected by Strong to Severe earth-quake shaking, who may require assistance due to light to moderate/heavy damage to buildings.

In the 4 provinces of Tajikistan, 28 districts were ex-posed to light to severe earthquake shaking. There are 5 districts in Gorno-Badakhshan province which may have suffered light to moderate/heavy damages.

These 5 districts should be priortised for assessment, response and rescue activities.

DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE

VERY STRONG (18 - 34 %G)

Rushan Murghab

Vanj

Shugnan

7,242POPULATION

EXPOSURE

DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE

SEVERE (34 - 65 %G)

MurghabRushan

67

DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE

STRONG (9.2 - 18 %G)

Rushan Murghab

Roshtqala

Vanj

Shugnan

26,170

1.44 Million People Exposed to

Earthquake in Tajikistan

1.13 Million People Exposed to

Light (IV) Earthquake Shakingin Tajikistan

279,294 People Exposed to

Moderate (V) Earthquake Shaking inTajikistan

26,170 People Exposed to

Strong (VI) Earthquake Shakng inTajikistan

7,242People Exposed to

Very Strong (VII) Earth-quake Shakng inTajiki-

stan

67People Exposed to

Severe (VIII) Earthquake Shakng inTajikistan

PERCEIVED SHAKING Not Felt Weak Ligh Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Voilent ExtremePOTENTIAL DAMAGE None None None Very light Light Moderate Moderate/Heavy Heavy Very HeavyPEAK ACC. (%g) <17 .17-1.4 1.4-3.9 3.9-9.2 9.2-18 18-34 34-65 65-124 >124PEAK VEL (cm/s) <0.1 0.1-1.1 1.1-3.4 3.4-8.1 8.1-16 16-31 31-60 60-116 >116INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY I II-III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+

MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE

33,479People may have suffered Light to Moderate/Heavy damage due to

earthquake in Tajikistan

3school buildings in

Shugnan district have been dam-aged and are not

safe for further use.

2At least two people have been trapped

and killed under the rock-falls.

500At least �ve

hundred houses are reported as partially dam-

aged.

10At least ten

people reported to injured due to earthquake and landslides

14More than 14 villages

located in Darvoz, Murghob, Rushon,

Shugnon districts are a�ected.

* Damage reports are based on Government of Tajikistan’s preliminary assessment. Not all affected areas are currently accessible due to challenging terrain and landslides

4 Initial analysis using United States Geological Surveys (USGS) data of Peak Acceleration (in%g) and Modified Marcalli Intensity (MMI) data. Spatial analysis was conducted on USGS data

using high-resolution population data of Wolrdpop as baseline. Actual damage may vary depending on type of housing structure and vulnerability of terrain.

POPULATION BREAKDOWN - EXPOSURE TO EARTHQUAKE

SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015

8 December 2015

JIRGATAL

NURABAD

RASHT

53,550 53,550

IVVVIVIII VII GRAND TOTAL

8,934 85,138 94,072

12 12

55,378 55,378

16,989 14,304 31,292

5,790 5,790

16,886 5,202 22,088

29,783 29,783

247 247

5 1,279 2,967 9,136 46 13,432

63 5,548 5,428 14,066 25,104

724 32,853 33,577

367 11,814 37,560 49,741

48 5,237 23,193 28,477

18,882 18,882

30,719 30,719

430 40,084 40,514

127,557 127,557

10 69,172 69,182

385 109,327 109,712

1,320 1,320

45,040 45,040

109,086 109,086

208,678 208,678

152,818 152,818

23,450 23,450

7,406 7,406

9,121 9,121

67 7,242 26,170 279,294 1,131,635 1,444,408

POPULATION EXPOSURE TO

INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY

ROGHUN

TAVILDARA

VAHDAT

DARVOZ

ISHKASHIM

KHORUGH

MURGHAB

ROSHTQALA

RUSHAN

SHUGNAN

VANJ

BALJUVON

HAMADONI

KHOVALING

KULOB

MUMINABAD

SHUROOBOD

VOSE

ASHT

B. GAFUROV

ISFARA

KANIBADAM

KONIBODOM

KUHISTANI MASTCHOH

QAYRAQQUM

TOTAL

SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015

8 December 2015

CONDITIONS & RISKSThe epicenter of the quake was recorded 357 km south-east of the Tajik capital Dushanbe and 20 km from the mountain lake Sarez which is located at a elevation of 4,693 meters. The trem-ors occurred during the day, so many people managed to escape.

WEATHER

In the Pamirs and the Murghab Bartang valley the weather con-ditions are extremely challenging as the temperature at night is -10o Celcius.

Analysis of four4 weather forecast models around the area of the epicenter predicts rain and snowfall on Wednesday and Thursday and a drop in temperature to almost -20 to -30o Celcius on Friday. Extreme temperature can be a crucial impediment in reaching high altitude affected areas.

ACCESS

Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast is located in the east of Tajikistan. It has one of the longest borders with Afghanistan. Pa-mir connects the center of the country through two roads, one of which is closed in the winter. It is nearly impossible to get to many remote villages in the mountainous region in the winter. Snow piles cover most of the roads. Many villagers use horses and don-keys to get to the district centers of the region.

Heavy snowfall and frost can complicate the work of rescuers and aid responders. Humanitarian aid can be delivered to the moun-tainous region along the highway. Reaching the affected area through airplanes and helicopters is dependent on weather con-ditions and is often not possible because of the cloud cover.

Only two easily navigable roads connect GBAO to the outside world, Khorugh-Osh and Khorugh-Dushanbe, both of which are segments of the Pamir Highway. A third road from Khorugh to Tashkurgan in China through the Kulma Pass is very rough. Gor-no-Badakhshan is separated from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan by the narrow, but nearly impassable, Wakhan Corridor. Another road leads from Khorog into the Wakhan and across the Afghan border. Khorog Airport is serviced by Tajik Air and as of 2014 had regularly scheduled flights to Dushanbe.

4 Weather Analysis

POVERTY & REMOTENESS OF AREA

Gorno-Badakhshan is one of the poorest regions in Ta-jikistan with the highest percentage of unemployment. According to the Demographic and Houshold Survey of 2012, more than half (54.4%) of the population in the Gorno-Badakhshan fall within the two lowest quin-tiles.

Because of the distance from the center and the lack of cultivated land, prices for basic food and essential commodities is twice higher than in other regions of Tajikistan.

FOOD SECURITY

According to Integrated Food Security Phase Clas-sification (IPC)5 the entire country is in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) situation.

The 2013 IPC Food Security Assessment highlighted GBAO as the most food insecure area in Tajikistan.

In 2013, 68% of the population in Eastern Pamir was in Stressed (IPC phase 2) situation, 9% in Crisis or higher (IPC Phase 3).

In Rasht Valley, 43% of the population was in Stressed situation and 2% in Crisis situation. In Western Pamir region, 51% of the population is in Stressed situation and 2% in Crisis situation.

According to FEWSNET, many poor households who are highly dependent on remittances from abroad are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the coming winter and lean season, as wheat flour prices remain above average and remittances have declined due to labor migration restrictions and reduced labor demand in the Russian Federation, as well as depreci-ation of the Russian Ruble (RUB).

Due to the ongoing El Niño, above-average precipita-tion is expected in Tajikistan during the remainder of the October 2015 to May 2016 wet season, and tem-peratures are expected to be above-average to aver-age. These conditions are likely to support normal crop development, but could increase the risk of flooding during spring 2016.

According to current analysis, with varied earthquake effects, winter and challenging access, the food secu-rity situation can further aggravate the vulnerability of the affected population.

5 FEWSNET Tajikistan

SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015

8 December 2015

HOUSING & HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS

According to the Demographics and Houshold Survey of 2013, with regard to the construction of dwellings, 29 percent of households reside in dwellings with earth or sand floors. Earth/sand floors are much more common in rural than in urban areas (40 percent versus 5 percent). Shingles are the most widely used roofing material, found in around nine in ten rural and six in ten urban dwellings. Cement (33 percent) and bricks (33 percent) are the most common wall materials in urban dwellings, while rural dwellings are most often built with covered or uncovered adobe (27 percent and 28 percent, respectively).

More than eight in ten Tajik households have at least two rooms in the dwelling that are used for sleeping, and 44 percent have three or more rooms. Urban households are almost twice as likely as rural households to have only one room for sleeping (23 percent versus 12 percent).

The majority of Tajik households use electricity (52 percent) or LPG/natural gas/biogas (18 percent) for cooking, while around three in ten households burn solid fuels (e.g., wood, charcoal, straw, shrubs, grass, agricultural crops or animal dung). Rural households are much more likely than urban households to cook with solid fuels.

Almost all Tajik households (96 percent) own some type of television, primarily a color television, eight in ten have a DVD player, and four in ten own a satellite dish. The vast majority of households (94 percent) have a tele-phone, with mobile phones much more common than fixed phones.

Few Tajik households have a bank account. Three percent of urban households and two percent of rural house-holds report that they have an account.

Overall, the population in the affected region reside in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The earthquakes in this area might have contributed to losses.

PRIORITY NEEDS

Food rations for cut o�, hard to reach a�ect-

ed areas

Winterise tempo-rary shelter for

population living in destroyed or

damaged houses

Healthcare for a�ected popula-tion, keeping in

view weather condition in the

a�ected area

Non-food items such as winter

clothing for childern and

adults, blankets, cooking utensils

etc.

Water, sanitation and hygiene

non-food items, clean drinking

water and sanita-tion and hygiene

interventions

Initial reports suggest that there is a need to respond urgently in five sectors. These initial needs are communi-cated by the Government of Tajikistan. Detailed needs assessment may be neccessary to provide more specific information on the affected population and humanitarian needs.

This analysis is produced by un residenT coordinaTor office in TajikisTan, unocha regional office for The caucasus, cenTral asia and ukraine (rocca), unocha’s coordinaTed assessmenT supporT secTion (cass) in geneva and uniTed naTions insTiTuTe for Training and research (uniTar) un operaTional saTelliTe applicaTions programme in geneva.

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and use

of boundaries,

geographicnam

es and related data shown here are not w

arrantedto be error-free nor do they im

ply official endorsement

or acceptance by the United N

ations. UN

OS

AT is aprogram

of the United N

ations Institute for Training andR

esearch (UN

ITAR

), providing satellite imagery and

related geographic information, research and analysis

to UN

humanitarian and developm

ent agencies andtheir im

plementing partners.

This work by U

NITA

R/U

NO

SAT is licensed under a

Creative

Com

mons

Attribution-N

onCom

mercial-

ShareA

like 3.0 Unported License.

Co

ntact In

form

ation

: un

osat@

un

itar.org

24/7 Ho

tline: +41 76 487 4998

ww

w.u

nitar.o

rg/u

no

sat

This map illustrates the ground shake m

ap aspublished

by U

SG

S.

This

is a

preliminary

analysis & has not yet been validated in the

field. Please send ground feedback to U

NITA

R /

UN

OS

AT.! !%

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