Tajikistan

By: Meri Oshrain, Gillian Null

Table of Contents

ContentsPart 1 ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3Part 2 ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 5Part 3 ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13Part 4 ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 18Works Cited …………………………………………………………………………...................... 22Appendix A …………………………………………………………………………………………. 25Appendix B …………………………………………………………………………………………. 26Appendix C ………………………………………………………………………………………..... 45

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Part One

Tajikistan is a small country about the size of Wisconsin, landlocked between the Pamir

and Alay Mountains in Central Asia. The Fergana Valley in the North is extremely populated

due to the rich soil deposits from the Syrdariya and the Amu Darya rivers with the rest of the

country isolated due to the mountains (Nations Online). The Pamiri, also known as the Islamic

Shiite, live in isolation, which keeps them very near to their ancient traditions. Tajikistan

neighbors Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and China (Petersen). Prior to 1991, they

were a part of the Soviet Union, but since the breakup they have been named one of the poorest

post soviet nations. After independence, Tajikistan fell into a bloody five-year civil war –

experiencing three different regime changes (Nations Online). Different factions developed due

to differing opinions about the country’s future. The Islamic fundamentalists wanted to create an

Islamic state, while the ruling communist party wanted to remain in power.

In 1929, current day Tajikistan came under rule of the Soviets. Although there was

opposition against the Soviets, predominantly during the nationalization of agriculture, the

socialist country brought about stability, increased education, political reform, and economic

improvement (BBC News). Common to a socialist economy, the Soviet government owned all

businesses and used a central planner to allocate resources in the economy. However, towards

the end of the Soviet Union, the Tajikistani people fully supported the Kremlin.

After their independence in 1991, Tajikistan was left with civil unrest, which later

developed into a civil war. Approximately 25,000 to 100,000 people died and up to 600,000

people were displaced during the five-year war (BBC News). The large displacement led to

destruction of property and devastated their economy. In 1994, Emonalii Rahmon rose to power

and continues to rule today. In June 1997, a peace and power sharing agreement was reached

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which ended the civil war (BBC News). Then, in 1999, a republic and constitution were created,

using the United States as a template. Because of this, Tajikistan has a similar bicameral

legislature, an executive branch with a president and prime mister, and a judicial branch with the

Supreme Court as the highest court. In the 1999 presidential election, only one opposition

candidate was permitted to run against Rahmon and in addition, the media was highly censored.

But during the 2005 election, even though more opposition ran, Rahmon still won. Also in this

election, candidates were not allowed to receive donations from religious group, and three main

political dissentions did not participate.

While Tajikistan was under the USSR, they lived under socialist economic planning. At

that time, the Soviets forced the citizens of Tajikistan to produce cotton, then turning them into

the third largest Soviet producer. Although initially opposing this plan, they then realized that

cotton was their only economic stimulant. Once the civil war began however, all aspects of an

economy disappeared. Their GDP plummeted by almost 75% in 1996 to about $1 billion (2005

USD). After their formation, Tajikistan took steps to be involved in the global community and

economy. In 1993 they joined the World Bank, in 1994 became a part of the International

Development Association as well as the International Finance Corporation, and in 2002 they

became a member of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. Since the end of the civil

war, the World Bank has provided an exuberant amount of funds to Tajikistan and the IFC has

been instrumental in creating growth and jobs contributing to the development of Tajikistan—all

of this aid lead to the establishment of economic reform plans. Post civil war, the economy was

devastated with 97% of the population living under the poverty line. Because of this Tajikistan

has made it their prerogative decrease poverty since 1999. In 2009, Tajikistan saw major

improvement with only 47% of people living under the poverty line. Also, many Tajikistani

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citizens work abroad and send money back, which results in 55% of their GDP coming from

remittance. The combination of international agency involvement coupled with their goals for

economic reform has shown steps in improving the overall country.

The majority of Tajikistan’s population is from Sunni Islam denomination with a very

small minority of Shi’a Islam. Although Sharia law delegates power mainly to men, the

Tajikistan constitution gives both men and women equal rights including universal suffrage.

Despite this, only 27% of women work, earning about 66 cents of every dollar men make. In

rural areas, men have been know to limit their wives freedom to study or work outside the home.

Wife beating is a common problem, as is the abduction of young women who are raped or forced

to marry. Men have total control over the home life and are considered the breadwinners for the

family. The women are known to raise the children and take care of the home.

Part Two

Since Tajikistan is a relatively new country to the world and has just overcome a very

bloody civil war, their economy has been extremely sluggish shown through their slow to

recover GDP Per Capita. As seen in graph B-1, 2013 GDP_PC was $480 (USD) compared to

the lowest point in 1996, where GDP_PC was only $205 in USD (World Bank). While

Tajikistan was still a part of the Soviet Union, they had the highest per capita wealth, peaking at

$817 in 1988. Throughout the 1980s, 1990 and 1991, the per capita income was steady around

$700. However, in PPP$, Tajikistan’s GDP_PC in 2013 was higher at $2431, seen in graph B-2.

The same trend was present for PPP$, where the lowest wealth was also in 1996 with only

$1040, and showing steady growth to the present day income. Similarly, prior to breaking off of

the USSR the per capita income was much higher at $3635 and $3302 in 1990 and 1991

respectively. In terms of wealth, Tajikistan was better off under the Soviet Union. According to

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graph B-3, the average growth rate of GDP_PC in recent years has been around 4.6%, showing

much improvement from the low of -10.8% in the 1990s during the civil war. With a high

growth rate, Tajikistan has been seen re-growth although extremely slowly. Before Tajikistan

broke off of the USSR in 1991, the GDP_PC in PPP$ was over $3000, but the average growth

rate was abysmal at -0.8%. The inflation rate has fluctuated over the last decade and a half. In

2013, inflation was at 5%, compared to the highest in 2001 at 38.6%. After falling considerably,

it rose back up to 20.5% in 2008. As seen in graph B-4, unemployment has recently dropped to

10.7% in 2013 after the highest unemployment rate was in 2002 at 12.2%. On average,

Tajikistan's unemployment has been around 11.5%. Their GDP growth—regardless of its speed

—coupled with the dropping unemployment rate speaks to the continuing improvement that

Tajikistan has experienced.

Tajikistan perfectly depicts transitional period II of demographic transition. Their crude

death rate has had a steady decline from 15.1 in 1960 to 6.6 in 2011 (refer to graph B-8). Seen in

graph B-7, their crude birth rate has also fallen from 47 in 1960 to 33 in 2011. However, this

was not a steady decline. During the 1980s, the rate increased to the low 40s and saw a steady

increase from 29 during the 2000s to the present day rate. Shown in graph B-5, their population

has increased from 2,064,035 in 1960 to 8,207,834 in 2013. Even with a civil war in the mid-

1990s, the total population was able to grow at a positive rate despite experiencing a few

decreases. Graph B-6 shows that the recent population growth rate has been around 2.4% since

2010. During the 1990s however, the growth rate dipped below 2%, and was stable around

1.5%, but the lowest was in 1999 at 1.35%. From 1960 to 1990, the growth rate fell from 3.4%

to 2.6%. According to graph B-9, the total fertility rate also shows trends of a developing country

with falling rates. In 2011, the TFR was at 3.82 compared to the low in 2004 at 3.64. There was

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a relatively steady decline during the reign of the USSR from 1960 when total fertility was at

6.24 and fell to 5.0 in 1991. Tajikistan has a relatively young population where in 2012, 36%

were under working age. This age structure gives Tajikistan population momentum as well as

the ability to replenish the work force (61% in 2012) and the overall population as seen in graph

B-10. Currently, life expectancy has been respectable around 67 years as seen in graph B-22.

The most recent data for Tajikistan’s gross domestic savings rate was from 2009, where

savings accounted for 16.6% of GDP as seen in graph B-12. After September 11 th, 2001, savings

rate dropped from 10.5% to 4.1%, falling even further in 2003 to 2.5%. Savings jumped up in

2004 to 14.4% staying relatively constant to the present day. Graph B-13 shows that in 2012, the

gross capital formation in Tajikistan was 19% of GDP, compared to a decade earlier in 2000 at

9.4%. Throughout Soviet rule and the end of the civil war, capital formation was very high.

However; after the war ended in 1997, it dropped from 22.3% to 15.4% in 1998. According to

graph B-13, Tajikistan has been running a deficit since 2005, except in 2007 when the current

account was 0.9% of the GDP. Currently, Tajikistan’s deficit was -3.2% in 2012. The largest

deficit was in 2007 with -13.3% of GDP. As seen in graph B-15, total external debt was 41.8%

of gross national income in 2012. From the start of the civil war, debt steadily increased from 0

to 118.6% at the end of the war. Max debt was in 2000 and totaled 138.4%. After 2000,

external debt declined until 2007 where it increased for a handful of years up to 55.4% and then

fell to present day. Urban population in 2012 was 26.6% of the total population and can be seen

in graph B-17. During communist Russia rule, the urban population increased, maxing out at

36.9%, and has steadily decreased to current day. From 1999 to 2012, the percentage of urban

dwellers was approximately 26%. In 2004, the structure of production is referred to in the pie

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chart B-16, showing that roughly half of the GDP was from agriculture, 26.2% from service, and

17.9% from industry.

Education is an indicator of a country’s progress. B-18 represents the amount of students

enrolled in primary school. In 2011 enrollment was 662,513 which had decreased from a

somewhat constant era since 1999 where enrollment was approximately 690,000. Throughout

the civil war, enrollment linearly increased from 507,000 to 639,000. Secondary school

enrollment has been on the rise since 1994 and seen in graph B-19. Currently, enrollment in

2011 was 1,054,808. We can clearly see that during the civil war, education was not a priority

and thus enrollment fell.

A healthy society means more people can contribute to the economy. Thus, a higher life

expectancy at birth would lead to a better economy. As referred to in graph B-22, current day

life expectancy in Tajikistan is 67.3 years. This number has gradually grown since 1990 when

expected age was 62 compared to 1960 life expectancy of 56.1 years. This climb shows

impressive gains in overall health. Infant mortality in 2012 was 41 deaths per 1000 births,

compared 116 in 1972, shown in graph B-23. Because of progress in medicine, increased doctor

facilities, and increased overall development in Tajikistan, the mortality rate has been able to

fall. In 1990, mortality had a slight increase from 84.6 to 85, which was not stabilized until 1998

when mortality fell to 83.3. According to graph B-24, access to physicians in 2010 was at the

lowest, falling to 1.9 physicians per 1000 people. Availability of doctors was best in 1988 when

there were 2.7 doctors per 1000 people. Then during the war, access steadily decreased and has

never been to full strength since.

Income inequality has been a recent topic throughout the world. Graph B-25 shows that

in 2009 the GINI index was 30.8 showing that Tajikistan had a relatively low-income gap. The

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largest income inequality was in 2004 at 33.6. In 1999, Tajikistan experienced its lowest GINI

index at 29.5. The percent of people in Tajikistan living on under $1.25 a day was at its lowest

in 2009 at 1.3%. Shown in graph B-26, in 1991, the poverty gap was at its highest with 15.4% of

its population living on under $1.25 a day. There was steady decline from 1999 to present day,

showing Tajikistan’s economic growth. Shown in graph B-27, those living on under $2 a day in

2009 were 6.7% of the population with 1999 again having the highest poverty gap at 35.4%. The

same declining trend was also present for the $2 poverty gap.

In addition, gender inequality has been a hot topic around the world. The primary

completion rate for both male and female is extremely high in Tajikistan. For females,

Tajikistan saw a 100% completion rate in 2011, but it then dropped to 96% in 2012 (seen in

graphB-35). For males, graph B-36 shows that the completion rate has been higher, reaching

over 100% in both 2010 and 2011. Like the females, males also saw a decrease in 2012;

however it only fell to 99%. Secondary schooling can be seen in graph B-54 as the ratio of

female to males which shows that more males are enrolled in secondary schools that females.

The last five years, Tajikistan has seen an increase to 90% depicting that recently more females

have been enrolled in secondary schools. The lowest levels were in the early 2000s, seeing 82%

in 2002 as the all-time lowest. Tertiary enrollment can be seen in graph B-55 which indicates

that the gender gap is much larger in higher education. In 2012, the ratio was 52% compared to

the lowest in 2001 at 41%. These low percentages show that Tajikistan needs to improve gender

inequality in tertiary education as well as tertiary enrollment overall. In 2012, the adult literacy

rate for both male and female were approximately the same at 99.7% compared to the largest gap

in 1989, where the female adult literacy rate was 2% lower than males (96.6% vs. 98.8% on

graphs B-28 vs B-29). Women in the Tajikistani work force have had a declining trend (see

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graph B-30). In 2013, 61% of working age women were actively participating in the work force.

The highest amount of eligible women was in 1990 at 62.6% which stayed constant until 1996.

Male participation in the work force has remained relatively constant, varying between 77-80%

as seen in graph B-31. The highest amount of males working, was in 2013 with 80%, compared

to the lowest in 2003 and 2004 at 77.9%. This gender participation gap relates back to tradition,

where women are primarily homemakers and the men are seen as the breadwinners. As shown

in graph B-32, the general trend for women in politics has risen steadily over the past two

decades. However, in 2014 Tajikistan experienced its first decline in the percentage of

parliament seats held by women to 16%. Previously women have held 18-19% of seats since

2005. Between 1997 and 1999, only 2.8% of available seats were allocated to women. In 2000

the trend of women in politics began, starting off with an enormous jump to 15%.

The central government has allocated 15.8% of total expenditures to the military in 2004.

In 2003, the highest military expenditure was at 20.1% due to the unrest and subsequent wars in

the Middle East (see graph B-40). Interestingly, in 2002 the military expenditure was

undocumented, despite the recent attacks in the United States negatively affecting Tajikistan due

to its close proximity to Al Qaeda. Spending on public education has been relatively constant,

varying between 12 and 15% of total expenditures as shown in graph B-41. In 2012, Tajikistan

saw the highest amount spent on public education at 16.3%. Government expenditure on health

has been fairly low, averaging 6.3%. In 2012, health accounted for 6.8%, which was its highest

since 1999 shown in graph B-42. At the end of the civil war, health expenditure was at its

highest at 8.5% in 1997.

Government performance is often measured by how quickly things are done. For

instance, as seen in graph B-33, in 2013 it took 16.2 days to obtain a business license, falling

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from 22.6 days in 2008. Another measure of government efficiency is corruption. The

corruption perception index (CPI) averages 2.1, reflecting how corrupt Tajikistan is. The lowest

corruption was in 2011 at 2.3, and it has been maintained at 2.2 ever since. The highest

corruption was in 2003 at 1.8 due to an impending election. These very low numbers depicted in

graph B-34, indicate that the government is extremely corrupt and struggles with maintaining a

just society.

Recently, Tajikistan has seen a lot of foreign direct investment in their country for the

growth of various projects. In 2012, the primary income from FDI payments was 33,035,900.

Until 2001, no income was generated from these payments see through graph B-49. Because

industry is lacking in Tajikistan, many citizens decide to work abroad and send money back. In

2012, personal remittances accounted for 47.5% of GDP. As a result of the financial crisis in

2008, remittances dropped to 35% in 2009. However before the crash, remittances peaked at

49% in 2008. This shows a tremendous amount of growth from 2002 where remittances were

6% (see graph B-47 for depicted trends). Since Tajikistan's development has struggled for

almost twenty years, they have received a lot of aid from the world as shown in graph B-48.

Their development assistance aid money in 2012 was 393,910,000 (in current USD). In 2010,

their aid reached its apex at approximately 440,000,000. Conversely, right before the crisis, aid

was 220,000,000. Throughout the 1990s, aid steadily increased from its lowest at 11,840,000 to

its highest in 1996 at 103,000,000. Official Development Assistance per Capita, as shown in

graph B-45, peaked in 2010 at almost $60. It has shown an increasing trend over time, from

around $2 in 1991 to about $50 as of 2012.

Tajikistan is a country that is scarce in fossil fuels. Their natural gas deposits are

extremely low, only accounting for approximately 0.054% of their GDP in 2012. They

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experienced was minimal growth in natural gas when it peaked at 0.5% in 2000. Oil rents, as a

percent of GDP in 2012, were 0.2%. In 1990, they peaked at 0.7%. (See graph B-44 for

reference)

Tajikistan is a mountainous country that lies on a fault line in central Asia. Therefore,

they are prone to earthquakes, mudslides, rockslides, landslides, avalanches, and flooding. 85%

of the country lays in active flood zones and 32% of the country is at risk to flooding. From

1960 to 1990, Tajikistan experienced an increased number of catastrophes. In 1993 and 1998,

horrible flooding devastated the country destroying the hydropower dam, numerous houses, and

other regions. From 2001-2003, avalanches resulted in 10 deaths (World Bank).

Tajikistan imports an abundant amount of goods. In 2000, about 50% of goods imported

were manufactured goods. In addition, fuel accounting for 37% and food at 10%. In graph B-52

we can see that imports in 2013 accounted for almost half of GDP (48.6%), showing a relatively

constant trend. In 1997, 81.4% of GDP was imports. This high percentage could be due to the

fact that their civil war had just ended, resulting in low capital and labor to produce domestic

goods and services. In 1994, imports accounted for only 40.5% of GDP, the lowest amount in

their history. Similarly, graph B-50 shows that exports accounted for 13.7% of GDP in 2013. In

2000 exports struggled- manufactured goods accounted for only 13.3%, while fuels were 13.8%,

and food at 4.4%.. In 2000, the low GDP made it seem as if exports were extremely large. In

reality, however, exports were lower than they are now (2000 being at $785,000,000 and 2013

being at 1,163,000,000). The overall trend since 1994, shows a somewhat inconsistent, yet

overall doubling increase, in the amount of exports in the past 20 years.

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Part Three

In the 1980s the world experienced high inflation rates and thus economic distress.

Compared to other low-income countries (LIC), Tajikistan was hit harder by these high rates,

seen by GDP per capita growth rates being significantly under key benchmark countries (See

graph C-2). As a result of the civil war, the annual GDP growth rate continued to plummet but

by the 2000s their GDP growth rate was able to exceed that of similar countries (6.2% vs. 2.7%),

shown in graph B-3 and C-3. The financial crisis affected Tajikistan more than other countries,

seen through their declining growth rate versus other LICs who experienced increased growth.

Overall, according to graphs B-4 and C-4, Tajikistan has a much higher unemployment rate—

greater than double—to that of other LICs. They both experienced increased unemployment as a

result of the financial crisis in the US but have since experienced increased job growth and

therefore lowered their individual unemployment rates.

A large problem in developing countries is having a large population but a scarce amount

of resources. Therefore, a lower population growth indicates a better off society. Current data

displayed in graphs B-6 and C-6 show that both Tajikistan and other LICs are experiencing low

population growth. However, Tajikistan is slightly better than these other countries. While most

LICs have shown steady growth rates around 2.5% annually, Tajikistan has shown much more

improvement by decreasing the population growth rate from 4% to 2.5%. LICs have seen a

steady decline in crude birth rate (CBR) while Tajikistan's CBR has seemed to waver with a

declining trend as seen in graph C-7. Although Tajikistan has not been as constant as the other

LICs, today their CBR's are approximately the same at 33 births per 1,000. Similarly, lowering

fertility rate is a way to control population growth. With total fertility rate (TFR) we have seen

the same trend as the crude birth rate where Tajikistan and the LICs have both declined but

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Tajikistan's decline has not been as constant (refer to graphs B-9 and C-9). They both started off

at approximately 6.3 and have fallen simultaneously Tajikistan however, has seen a slightly

lower number (3.8 compared to 4.1 for other LICs) and thus has been more successful. The age

structure of a country shows how many available laborers and dependents that a country has.

According to graphs B-10 and C-10 there have been recent trends of a larger work force and

lower number of dependent children and elderly people in both Tajikistan and other LICs.

Because the amount of children is declining, there is decreased population momentum and

indications that the future labor force will as well be smaller.

Increasing capital stocks shows an increase in investment in one's business as well as

future profits in a country. Tajikistan has been lacking, where 20% of their GDP is capital

formation compared to 26% in other countries (seen in graphs B-13 and C-13). For similar

wealth countries, they have seen increasing investment in capital. Tajikistan, on the other hand,

has been relatively stable since 2006. In the early 1990's although the US economy was doing

very well, other global markets had fallen and were struggling. Both Tajikistan and other LICs

had extremely high debt in 1994 but have since had a tendency to fall fairly rapidly. Current

data depicted in graphs B-14 and C-14, shows that Tajikistan has more debt at 42% while LICs

have a debt at 27%.

The poverty rate of those living under $1.25 a day in other LIC country’s in 2011 was

17.63% of the total population which is 13.5 times larger than the poverty rate at $1.25 in

Tajikistan. While Tajikistan has experienced declining poverty rates in the last two decades,

other LIC countries have not been so fortunate. According to graph C-23, on average most

countries did not experience declination of poverty until 1993. The ability to read and write is a

key determinant of how developed a country is. Tajikistan has shown that it is much more

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developed than its counterparts with a 40% difference in adult literacy. The most recent data

depicted in graphs B-21 and C-19 shows that Tajikistan is at 99.7% while other similar countries

are at 60.4%. Modern day medicine and technology have been key factors in increasing life

expectancy. As seen in graph B-22 and C-20, both Tajikistan and other LICs have improved

their life expectancy in the last 40 years—LICs sing a 20 year increase and Tajikistan seeing an

11 year increase. However, even though Tajikistan saw a smaller improvement, it has an overall

higher life expectancy at 67.3 years compared to LICs at 61.6 years.

Stability of prices and interest rates are a necessity in all growing economies. Citizens

and global traders need to be able to trust the currency to be able to trade and invest with these

growing countries. Inflation is a key determinant in how stable these rates are. On average,

Tajikistan has had a much higher inflation rate than other LICs. For instance, while Tajikistan

reached its high in 2001 at 38.6% other LICs were experiencing a 5.1% inflation rate (see graph

C-30). Overall, LICs stayed in the range of having 5 ± 2% inflation while Tajikistan did not

reach this range until 2009. After reaching this range, Tajikistan experienced a jump up to 12%

in 2011 and then back down to around 5% in present day. Female work participation in LIC

countries in 2013 was very high at 70.9%. Total work participation has been relatively constant

at 70% participation rate in the last twenty-five years. Tajikistan though, had 10% less

participation of women in the work force between 1990 and 2013. Male workforce participation

in LIC countries was 84.2% in 2013, and has been on the same level since 1990. Tajikistani

male participation in the workforce in 2013 was 79.8% and like LIC countries, has remained on

the same level since 1990 (see graphs C-27 and C-28 for corresponding data).

The structure of government expenditures shows where a government puts their focus

monetarily. During most of its time, Tajikistan saw 12-15% expenditure in the military while

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other LICs spent just a little less (9-12%) on military as seen in graph C-35. The only large spike

that Tajikistan experienced, occurred right after September 11, 2001 when its Afghanistan

bordering sides were under heavy invasion by Al Qaeda. At this point, Tajikistan jumped up to

20% military expenditure while other LICs stayed at 12%. Both Tajikistan and other LICs

understand the importance of education. Because of this, they have spent the same money and

seen almost the exact same percent increases in public spending on education as seen in graphs

C-36. Although slow and steady increases have been the trend for both, LICs saw a16%

expenditure in 2004 while Tajikistan did not reach 16% until 2012. However, despite reaching

16% before Tajikistan, the other LICs saw a .15% decrease over the next six years while

Tajikistan continued to grow and invest more into education. Since health is such a key

determinant in the progress of a country, it is interesting to compare the health expenditure of all

LDCs, whose main problems arise from disease and lack of overall health. While other LICs

saw 8.8% expenditure in 2011, Tajikistan only saw 6.3% (see graphs C-37). However,

expenditure in other LICs has fallen steadily from 10.2% in 2009 whereas Tajikistan has seen

nothing but growth since 2007 when they had 4.3% expenditure.

While Tajikistan has seen an average corruption perception index of 2 (high 1-10 low),

other LICs have experienced an average of 4. Overall, LIC countries—including Tajikistan—see

more corruption than developed countries. However, as depicted in graph C-32, compared to

Tajikistan, LIC’s are less corrupt with a CPI index averaging 4.2, compared to Tajikistan’s

average of 2.1.

Tajikistan is more reliant on international trade than most other lower income countries

relying on imports for their survival. In 2013, imports were at the highest level in Tajikistan.

Imports as a percent of GDP has dropped from an absurd high of 78% in 2000 to 49% in 2013

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(see graph B-49). Although this shows less dependence on foreign countries, Tajikistan imports

more than the average LIC, which was 31% in 2012 (see graph C-43). In actuality, imports have

increased at a rapid pace along with the increases in GDP. Exports, however, are not a large

portion of the Tajikistani economy and decreased substantially in the last decade. In 2006,

exports were 49%, but fell to 14% in 2012 when GDP tripled. The percentage of GDP for

exports is now somewhat lower than other low-income countries that exported 18% of their GDP

in 2013, see graphs C-42 for corresponding data.

Tajikistan imports about $3 billion more than exports, which results in a very negative

trade balance. Tajikistan is able to maintain this trade balance due to the large amount of

remittances from workers abroad. According to the World Bank, Tajikistan has the highest

amount of remittances, accounting for 48% of their GDP in 2012 (see graph B-44). Due to the

large number of workers abroad, it can be said, that Tajikistan’s main export is labor. Tajikistani

laborers are better able to find work abroad in countries where labor is scarce because there is a

lack of jobs in the home sector of the manufacturing industry. While Tajikistan citizens depend

on remittances, other LIC’s do not, where remittances are often low percentages of their GDP

(see graphs and B-44 and C-46). The Tajikistan economy has tripled in recent years, whereas

LIC’s have only doubled, this could possibly be from the remittances abroad.

ODA per Capita in Tajikistan is comparable to that of other similar income nations. Prior

to the civil war in Tajikistan, they received less assistance than other LICs, however in 1998, the

war turned it into an aid seeking country. According to graphs B-42 and C-38, in 1998, ODA

per capita in Tajikistan was$ 27 compared to average of $18 for all LICs, in comparison to 1994

when ODA in Tajikistan was $5 per capita and the LIC average was $25. After the civil war,

ODA to Tajikistan was inconsistent until 2009, when Tajikistan was hit by the global financial

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crisis and fell into a recession. FDI to Tajikistan has been high in comparison. In 2004 and 2006,

FDI inflows accounted for 13% and 12% of GDP. These values are much higher than FDI in

other LIC’s which only 2.12% and 1.99% of investment those years (see graphs B-46 and C).

After the financial crisis in 2008, the FDI to Tajikistan, fell substantially and was hit harder than

other LICs. FDI in Tajikistan, tumbled from 7.3% of GDP in 2008 to 0.3% in 2009, while in

other LIC’s experienced a small drop rom 3.04% to 2.23% in the same period.

Many low-income countries are considered abundant in natural resources while Tajikistan is

considered natural resource deficient. Tajikistan is not endowed with fossil fuel to the extent of

other countries. While not devoid of fossil fuels, its development is not nearly as dependent on

nonrenewable energy as some LICs. Oil rents or natural gas rents have not been more than 0.5%

of GDP since 1990. Since 2004 however, the average LIC has been over 1% (see graphs B-40,

B-41, C-39, and C-40). However, Tajikistan is well endowed with metals, particularly aluminum,

that are part of their export sector. In 2000, metal and ore exports accounted for 56% of total

exports, a number far greater than the 7% for other LICs in the same period (WTO).

Part IV

Although Tajikistan is among the top 10 percent of the world at reducing their poverty

rate in the last 15 years, they have had many failures. With Rahmon still in power, the CPI for

Tajikistan has been unchanged and is still very low showing that the government has remained

corrupt. Also, remittances account for about half of their GDP. While this is neither a negative

nor positive externality, working heavily abroad runs the risk of creating a brain drain on the

economy. Thus, we see this large percentage of remittances as a failure on the part of

Tajikistan’s industrial development. Ideally our plans will increase domestic workers and thus

domestic GDP as well as creating a brain gain from workers returning. Additionally seen as a

18

failure, Tajikistan experiences a very large negative trade balance, importing significantly more

than they export. Another failure on Tajikistan's part is its lack of secondary schooling which

serves as an impediment towards the development of the country.

Overall however, Tajikistan has experienced major success in the past two and a half

decades. Although they are behind in some ways, they have proven a commitment to growing

their economy including their monetary and social well-being. In addition to this improvement,

Tajikistan has set goals to double GDP, reduced poverty further, and to expand the middle class

all by 2020. In order to achieve these goals they need to change their unsustainable

consumption-driven model to a more suitable investment-driven model. Tajikistan currently has

one of the lower total investments regionally and internationally. In order to increase

investment, they need to improve their inadequate infrastructure, mainly their unreliable energy

supply, property rights, and tax policy (World Bank). We propose that Tajikistan should initially

invest in cotton processing plants. Until now, they only exported the raw cotton because they did

not have the resources to process it themselves. With investment in processing plants, they could

eventually see a need to invest in the textile industry. Both of these improvements would

ultimately lead to increased exports in processed cotton, clothing, and raw cotton—altering the

negative trade balance that they currently experience. In the future if this is successful,

Tajikistan could become a competitor with China for the production of clothing. As of now,

Tajikistan exports a large amount of raw cotton to China. However, it they become competitors,

they can export the cotton at a higher price to China, therefore increasing their GDP. These

increases in production will not only improve GDP, but lead to domestic job growth, industry

growth, and foreign investment increases. Foreign investors, seeing this new growth, will then

further improve infrastructure, possibly eliminating Tajikistan’s infrastructure problem all

19

together. If the government decides to go through with these plans, they need to decide how to

fund it. Options are increasing taxes or get a loan from abroad. If Tajikistan goes the route of

asking abroad, they can go straight to the United States with the proposal to export to the United

States at a lower price than competitors if they give them the loan. With this implementation, we

believe that Tajikistan's development would sky-rocket.

Currently Tajikistan gets all of their power from hydro-powered dams. This is obviously

insufficient because 70% of the population loses power in the winter, equating for roughly 20%

of total winter electricity demand (World Bank). In order to fix this shortage, we propose that

Tajikistan research other renewable energy sources, such as wind. Wind power technology can

be produced domestically, which will fuel job growth, GDP growth, and possibly increase

exports. Since mountainous regions surround Tajikistan, they can utilize the readily available

wind that is so prominent in the mountains as an alternative source of electricity.

According to the World Bank as of March 2015, they have an active portfolio in

Tajikistan which includes 21 projects, totaling US$283.4 million. The largest share of the

portfolio is in agriculture (24 percent), followed by urban and rural development (21 percent),

transport (16 percent), governance and economic policy (9 percent), environment and natural

resources (7 percent), education (6 percent), health and social protection (6 percent), water (6

percent), the private sector (4 percent), and social protection and labor (1 percent). In terms of

social services, Tajikistan aims to promote growth in education, social assistance, water supply,

sanitation, and health (World Bank). In education, Tajikistan launched the National Testing

Center in 2008, which aims to improve the access to and quality of education. Recent numbers

show improvement in female applications to the Unified University Entrance Examinations as

well as a 65% pass rate of those who sit for the exam (World Bank). Also according to the

20

World Bank, Tajikistan citizens lack access to secondary and university education, heating, and

decent sanitation. Since they have seen improvement in university education and not secondary

education, we propose some implementations to improve this area. Of these implementations,

some could be: incentives for primary and secondary school teachers, tax breaks for families

with students in secondary education, and a unified national curriculum. We also suggest adding

an agro-specific secondary curriculum as well as promoting trade schools since agriculture is

such a large part of Tajikistan's economy. Because corruption is such a problem in Tajikistan,

we suggest a few ways to decrease this issue. Due to the fact that Rahmon is still in power, we

can see that good implementations would be to set Presidential term limitations and look into the

fairness of the voting system. Furthermore, since there is a high level of censorship, we suggest

that the government enforces free speech and free press for the media so that the Tajikistani

people can learn about the issues taking place and the candidates who might be running against

Rahmon.

Tajikistan has been able to improve maternal and child health by promoting performance

based financing through their Health Services Improvement Project. As of April 2014, this new

model had increased the number of postnatal care visits, fully vaccinated children, and

contraceptive use (World Bank). In addition, the life expectancy of Tajikistan citizens has

increased to 67 years old and the total fertility rate has dropped threefold. Both of these

indicators show that Tajikistan is on their way to being a developed country.

21

Works Cited

“2015 Index of Economic Freedom: Tajikistan.” heritage.org. The Heritage Foundation, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

Aliev, Hassan, Forming of Political system of Tajikistan: Political and Juridical Aspects, Democratic Institutions NATO Fellowship 1997. PDF File.

“Chinese to Build Tajik Hydroelectric Plant.” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 18 January 2007. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Country Profile: Education in Tajikistan” Unicef. PDF File. Dalgleisch, Eleanor, “Goodbye Lenin: Tajikistan’s New Historical Narrative.”

OpenDemocracy.net, 3 April 2013. Web. 25 April 2015.

”Fact Sheet: US Relations with Tajikistan.” Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs. U.S. Department of State, 25 February 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Folie de Grandeur.” The Economist. The Economist Newspaper Limited, 27 July 2013. Web.

25 April 2015.

“Freedom of the Press: Tajikistan.” Freedom House, 2014. Web. 25 April 2015.

“History of Tajikistan.” How Stuff Works. InfoSpace LLC, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

Horák, Slavomír, In Search of the History of Tajikistan from: Russian Politics and Law Vol. 48. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe: 2010. Web. 25 April 2015.

Nourzhanov, Kirill and Christian Bleuer, Tajikistan: A Political and Social History, Canberra: ANU E Press: 2013. PDF File.

Petersen, Marilyn, “Countries and their Cultures: Tajikistan.” everyculture.com. Advameg, Inc., 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

Simoes, Alexander, “Learn More about Trade in Tajikistan.” Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan.” Nations Online. One World Nations Online, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan History, Language, and Culture.” World Travel Guide. Columbus Travel Media, Ltd., 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

22

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (DAC OECD), Geographical Distribution of Financial Flows to Developing Countries, Development Co-operation Report, and International Development Statistics database, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” International Energy Agency Energy (IEAE) Statistics and Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Energy Statistics of OECD Countries, and Energy Balances of OECD Countries.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” International Labor Organization (ILO), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” International Monetary Fund (IMF), Government Finance Statistics Yearbook and data files, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” UNICEF, State of the World's Children, Childinfo, and Demographic and Health Surveys by ICF International, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” United Nations Population Division (UNPD), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNIGCME), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” World Bank. The World Bank Group, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” World Health Organization (WHO), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan, LIC Overview and Statistical Data.” World Trade Organization (WTO), 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

“Tajikistan Profile: Timeline.” BBC News. BBC, 2014. Web. 25 April 2015.

23

“Tajikistan to Get More Than $1bln from China.” The Gazette of Central Asia, 9 June 2012. Web. 25 April 2015.

“The World Factbook: Tajikistan.” CIA: the World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, 2015. Web. 25 April 2015.

24

Appendix A

25

Appendix B

B-1

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

GDP_PC in USD(World Bank)

GDP_PC in USD

B-2

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

GDP_PC in PPP$(World Bank)

GDP_PC in PPP$

B-3

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Average growth rate GDP_PC/Decade in PPP$

(World Bank)

Average growth rate GDP_PC/Decade in PPP$

26

B-4

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20159.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

Unemployment rate(ILO estimate)

Unemployment rate (ILO es-timate)

B-5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

Population(UNPD)

Population

B-6

27

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Population growth(UNPD)

Population growth

B-7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Crude birth rate(UNPD)

Crude birth rate

B-8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Crude Death Rate(UNPD)

Crude Death Rate

B-9

28

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Total Fertility Rate(UNPD)

Total Fertility Rate

B-10 Age Structure(UNPD)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age Structure 0-14Age Structure 15-64Age Structure 65+

B-11

29

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dependancy Ratio(World Bank)

Dependancy Ratio

B-12

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Gross Domestic Savings rate (% of GDP)(World Bank)

Gross Domestic Savings rate (% of GDP)

B-13

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Gross Capital Formation %GDP(World Bank)

Gross Capital Formation %GDP

B-14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Current Account Debit or Surplus % of GDP(World Bank)

Current Account Debit or Surplus % of GDP

B-15

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Total External Debt % GNI(World Bank)

Total External Debt % GNI

31

B-16

56%

26%

18%

Agriculture % of total work forceService % of total workforceInsdustry % of total work force

Structure of production in 2004(UNPD)

B-17

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Urban Population %Total Population(UNPD)

Urban Population %total Pop

B-18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Gross Primary Education(UNESCO)

Gross Primary Education

32

B-19

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Gross Secondary Education(UNESCO)

Gross Secondary Education

B-20

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tertiary Education rate % of gross(UNESCO)

Tertiary Education rate % of gross

B-21

33

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201596.5

97

97.5

98

98.5

99

99.5

100

Adult Literarcy Rate(UNESCO)

Adult Literarcy Rate

B-22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202050

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

Life Expectancy at birth(UNPD)

Life Expectancy at birth

B-23

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Infant Mortality Rate(UNIGCME)

Infant Mortality Rate

B-24

34

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Physican per 1000 people(WHO)

Physican per 1000 people

B-25

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201027

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

GINI index (World Bank)

GINI index (World Bank es-timate)

B-26

35

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)(World Bank)

Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)

B-27

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%)(World Bank)

Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%)

B-28

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201595

95.596

96.597

97.598

98.599

99.5100

Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above)

(UNESCO)

Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above)

B-29

36

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201598.2

98.4

98.6

98.8

99

99.2

99.4

99.6

99.8

100

Literacy rate, adult male (% of males ages 15 and above)

(UNESCO)

Literacy rate, adult male (% of males ages 15 and above)

B-30

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201560

60.5

61

61.5

62

62.5

63

Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled

ILO estimate)

Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO es-timate)

B-31

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201576.5

77

77.5

78

78.5

79

79.5

80

Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO

estimate)

Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate)

B-32

37

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201602468

101214161820

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)

(IPU)

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)

B-33

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

5

10

15

20

25

Time required to obtain an operating license (days)(World Bank)

Time required to obtain an op-erating license (days)

B-34

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

CPI ( Transparency international)

Series2

38

B-35

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201393

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

Primary completion rate, female (% of relevant age group)

(UNESCO)

Primary completion rate, female (% of relevant age group)

B-36

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201396

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

Primary completion rate, male (% of rel-evant age group)

(UNESCO)

Primary completion rate, male (% of relevant age group)

B-37

39

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)(IMF)

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

B-39

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20130

5

10

15

20

25

30

General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) (IMF)

Tajikistan

LIC

B-40

40

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050

5

10

15

20

25

Military expenditure (% of central government expenditure)

(SIPRI)

Military expenditure (% of cen-tral government expenditure)

B-41

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Public spending on education, total (% of government expenditure)

(UNESCO)

Public spending on education, total (% of government expendi-ture)

B-42

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Health expenditure, public (% of gov-ernment expenditure)

(WHO)

Health expenditure, public (% of government expenditure)

41

B-43

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20120

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Natural Gas rents as percentage of GDP(World Bank)

B-44

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20120

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Oil rents as percentage of GDP(World Bank)

B-45

42

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 $-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

ODA per Capita(DAC OECD)

B-46

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

FDI as percentage of GDP(World Bank)

B-47

43

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

Personal remittances, received (% of GDP)(World Bank)

Personal remittances, received (% of GDP)

B-48

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

50000000100000000150000000200000000250000000300000000350000000400000000450000000500000000

Net official development assistance and of-ficial aid received (current US$)

(DAC OECD)

Net official development assis-tance and official aid received (current US$)

B-49

44

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

5000000100000001500000020000000250000003000000035000000400000004500000050000000

Primary income on FDI, payments (current US$)

(World Bank)

Primary income on FDI, payments (current US$)

B-50

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20130.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Merchandise Exports as percentage of GDP(WTO)

B-51

Metals (99% Aluminum)

Raw Cotton

Other Textiles

Mineral Products

Vegtable ProductsOther

Exports by Product(Simoes, ALexander)

45

B-52

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20130.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Merchandise Imports as percentage of GDP(WTO)

B-53

Textiles

Mineral Products (Mostly Petroleum Products)

MachinesVehicles and Vehicle Parts

Vegtable Products (Mostly Wheat Products)

Metals

Footwear

Chemical Products

Foodstuffs

Wood ProductsStone and Glass

Plastics and Rubbers Other

iMPORTS BY pRODUCT(Simoes Alexander)

46

B-54

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201478

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

Ratio of female to male secondary en-rollment (%)

(UNESCO)

Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%)

B-55

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%)

(UNESCO)

Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%)

47

Appendix C

C-1

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

GDP PC in USD-constant 2005 $(World Bank)

GDP PC in USD-constant 2005 $

C-2

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

GDP PC in PPP$ constant 2011 $(World Bank)

GDP PC in PPP$ constant 2011 $

C-3

48

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Average growth rate of GDP_PC/Decade(World Bank)

Average growth rate of GDP_PC/Decade

C-4

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20154.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3

Unemployment rate (ILO estimate)

Unemployment rate ILO estimate

C-5

49

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

500000000

600000000

700000000

800000000

900000000

Population(UNPD)

Population

C-6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Population growth(UNPD)

Population growth

C-7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Crude Birth rate(UNPD)

Crude Birth rate

C-8

50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

Crude Death Rate(UNPD)

Crude Death Rate

C-9

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Total Fertility Rate(UNPD)

Total Fertility Rate

C-10

Age Structure(UNPD)

51

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

0-1415-6465+

C-11

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202070

75

80

85

90

95

Dependancy ratio(World Bank)

Dependancy ratio

C-12

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP)(World Bank)

Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP)

C-13

52

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

30

gross capital formation %GDP(World Bank)

gross capital formation %GDP

C-14

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

20

40

60

80

100

120

Total External Debt %GNI(World Banlk)

Total External Dept %GNI

C-15

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Urban Population % of total(UNPD)

Urban Population % of total

53

C-16

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

Gross Primary education(UNESCO)

Gross Primary education

C-17

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

gross secondary education(UNESCO)

gross secondary education

C-18

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

tertiary enrollment rate(UNESCO)

tertiary enrollment rate

54

C-19

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201546

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

Adult Literacy Rate(UNESCO)

Adult Literacy Rate

C-20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Life expectancy at birth(UNPD)

Life expectancy at birth

C-21

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

infant mortality rate(UNIGCME)

infant mortality rate

55

C-22

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

physicians per 1000 people(WHO)

physicians per 1000 people

C-23

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)(World Bank)

Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)

C-24

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%)(World Bank)

Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%)

56

C-25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above)

(UNESCO)

Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above)

C-26

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201556

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

Literacy rate, adult male (% of males ages 15 and above)

(UNESCO)

Literacy rate, adult male (% of males ages 15 and above)

C-27

57

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201567.5

68

68.5

69

69.5

70

70.5

71

71.5

Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled

ILO estimate)

Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO es-timate)

C-28

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201583

83.5

84

84.5

85

85.5

86

Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO

estimate)

Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate)

C-29

58

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

5

10

15

20

25

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)

(IPU)

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)

C-30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)(IMF)

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

C-32

59

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142.48

2.52.522.542.562.58

2.62.622.642.662.68

CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating

(1=low to 6=high) (World Bank)

CPIA transparency, accountabil-ity, and corruption in the public sector rating (1=low to 6=high)

C-33

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Primary completion rate, female (% of relevant age group)

(UNESCO)

Primary completion rate, female (% of relevant age group)

60

C-34

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Primary completion rate, male (% of rel-evant age group)

(UNESCO)

Primary completion rate, male (% of relevant age group)

C-35

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Military expenditure (% of central government expenditure)

(SIPRI)

Military expenditure (% of cen-tral government expenditure)

C-36

61

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201213

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

Public spending on education, total (% of government expenditure)

(UNESCO)

Public spending on education, total (% of government expendi-ture)

C-37

2008.5 2009 2009.5 2010 2010.5 2011 2011.58

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

Health expenditure, public (% of gov-ernment expenditure)

(WHO)

Health expenditure, public (% of government expenditure)

C-38

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

ODA per capita LIC(DAC OECD)

C-39

62

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20120

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Natural Gas rents as percentage of GDP LIC(World Bank)

C-40

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20120

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Oil rents as percentage of GDP LIC(World Bank)

C-41

63

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

30

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

FDI as percentage of GDP LIC(World Bank)

C-42

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20130.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Merchandise Exports as percentage of GDP LIC(WTO)

B-43

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20130.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Merchandise Imports as percentage of GDP(WTO)

C-44

64

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

102030405060708090

100

Ratio of female to male secondary en-rollment (%)

(UNESCO)

Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%)

C-45

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%)

Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%)

C-46

65

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Remittances as Percentage of GDP LIC(World Bank)

66