Is the civil war really over?

Tajikistan Student: Majid Al-Bunni

Brief History Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic 1929-1991 :

Independence and the Civil WarTensions began in the spring of 1992 after

opposition members took to the streets in demonstrations against the results of the 1991 presidential election.

The fight broke out in may 1992 between the government supporter and the opposition.

The government had to resign ,and Emomali Rahmonov became the leadership of the government.

The height of hostilities occurred between 1992 and 1993 and pitted Kulyabi militias against an array of groups.

Islamic Movement of UzbekistanTajikistan

Russia

Uzbekistan

Islamic Renaissance Party of TajikistanJamiat-e Islami

Democratic reformists

Gorno-Badakhshan

Taliban factions

Islamic State of Afghanistan

The end of Civil WarBy the end of the war Tajikistan was in a state of

complete devastation. The estimated dead numbered from 50,000 to as many as 100,000. Around 1.2 million people were refugees inside and outside of the country. Tajikistan's physical infrastructure, government services, and economy were in disarray and much of the population was surviving on subsistence handouts from international aid organizations. The United Nations established a Mission of Observers in December 1994, maintaining peace negotiations until the warring sides signed a comprehensive peace agreement in 1997.

Tajikistan at presentPeaceful elections were held in 1999, though

they were criticized by opposition parties and foreign observers. Rahmon was re-elected with 98% of the vote. Elections were held again in 2006, with Rahmon winning a third term in office with 79% of the vote in a field of five candidates. Several opposition parties boycotted the election and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe was critical of it, although observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States claimed the elections to be legal and transparent.

In 2010, concerns of Islamic militarism in the east of the country was on the rise following the escape of 25 militants from a Tajik prison in August, an ambush that killed 28 Tajik soldiers in the Rasht Valley in September and another ambush in the valley in October that killed 30 soldiers, followed by fighting outside Gharm that left 3 militants dead. The country's Interior Ministry asserts to date that it maintains full control over the country's east.

Internal problems The Tajik students go and study out side

TajikistanMore than 60 percent of the population lives

in poverty.Corruption: the government runs largely on

political patronage. The opposition still non-placated opposition ,

ex : (Several opposition parties boycotted the elections in 2006 and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe was critical of it.)

Facts!Tajikistan matters because it serves as a transit

point (and in some cases a source) of flows of drugs and weapons into several more internationally influential countries. It shares a porous 1200 km-long border with Afghanistan that cannot be secured, which could help reinforce militants fighting against US and NATO troops. Drugs and weapons already cross the border into Russia and China and flow across South Asia. State collapse in Tajikistan would destabilize the broader Fergana Valley, with impact on neighboring Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic.

ConclusionEven with the opposition threat to the stability and

the threat of the extremists within and outside the country, and the various problems of the state, nevertheless , , the trauma of the 1990s has generated an underlying consensus on one issue: hardly anyone wants to return to full-scale war and most people yearn for peaceful development. This consensus alone may be sufficient to preserve a degree of stability for years to come.

For the (poorest) of the post-Soviet Central Asian republics, the prospect of armed conflict is a tremendous expense -- both economically and politically -- that Tajikistan truly cannot afford and would be a setback to any nascent post-war progress that may have been achieved.