SFF HDD and Flash Memories

Coexistence or Competition?

A Summary of IDEMA SymposiumFebruary 17, 2005

Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA

Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON AP Rama Gardens Hotel Bangkok March 14, 2005

Orchid Country Club, Singapore March 16-17, 2005

Vs.

Symposium Objectives

• Review Technical Attributes of HDD and Flash Technologies

• Determine Present and Future Applications for Each

• What HDD FF Are Required To Meet Applications

• What Flash Products Are Required to Meet Applications

• Areas Where Each Will Compete

• Areas Where Each Will Coexist

• Areas Where Each Could Dominate

Ed Grochowski

Scope of Study

1. Consumer Based Applications• Digital Still Cameras• Video Cameras• Mobile phones• MP3 Players• GPS• Games

2. Small FF HDD, 2.5 inch, 1.8 inch, 1.0 inch, 0.85 inch

3. Flash Capacities

4. Unit Prices and Projections

Ed Grochowski

Why This Symposium?

1. Explosion of Storage For Consumer Based Applications

2. SFF HDD Have Made Inroads in Traditional Flash Territory

3. Demand For Higher Storage Capacities May Open New Opportunities For SFF HDD

4. Both Flash And SFF HDD’S Are Evolving

5. In Certain Applications Both Technologies Will Coexist

Ed Grochowski

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Pri

ce/

GB

yte

, Do

llars

HDD DRAM Flash

Average Price of Storage

oem

prc

2005

EG

1.p

rz

Ed Grochowski

Desktop HDD

Mobile/Server HDD

1 " HDD

DRAM/Flash

1985 1990 1995

Are

al D

ensi

ty,

Gb

its/

inch

2

DRAM/Flash

25% CGR

60% CGR

1M

4M

16M

64M

AR

EA

L20

05

EG

a.P

RZ

100% CGR

2000 2005 2010

Year

25% = 2X per 3 years40 260 1.5100 1

40% CGR

256M

Ed Grochowski

512M

HDD HDD Projection

Areal Density of HDD and DRAM/FLASH

40% CGR

1000

100

10

1

0.1

0.01

8G4G

2G1G

MLCNAND Flash}

0.001

A Clear Dichotomy has EmergedA Clear Dichotomy has Emerged

High Capacity

$ Lowest $/GB

Form Factor

3.5 inch

GB 40 – 500

LxWxH 5.8” x 4.0” x 1.0”

Power(Idle)

~5.7 – 10 Watts

ShockNonOp 350G/225G

Operating ~55G

Robust Mobility

$ Highest $/GB

Form Factor

0.85 – 1.8 inch

GB 2 – 60

LxWxH1.26”x0.94”x0.13”

2.76”x2.13”x0.28”

Power(Write)

<1.0 to 1.4 Watts

ShockNonOp ~1500G

Op 1000G – 500G

John Buttress,IDC

Many Markets, Many Configurations required for HDD’s in Digital CE applications for next 3 years

DVR

Home Media

Gaming

MP3

Mobile Video Players

Cell Phones

Multi function devices

Digital Cameras

Digital Camcorders

Auto Navigation

Auto Entertainment

3.5" Ext3.5" Hi Cap

3.5" LC 2.5" 1.8" 1" 1" CF .85"

Interfaces required: PATA, SATAUSB, CF, CEATA, 1394 Pat O’Malley, Seagate

HH Units TAM by Form Factor

• 1.8” • Significant upside but limited growth• High-end HH devices – photo MP3,

Portable Media Player• 1.0” 2hd

• Estimate 500% growth rate from 2004 to 2005

• MP3 player explosion • Market is still supply limited

• Mobile Phone FF• 2.5G technology support Messaging

Service(i.e. SMS)• Started to adopt 3G technology which

enables up to 2 Mbps transfer rate• Estimate 60M units smart phone and

390M units of camera phone in 2005

Source: Seagate SMP,IDC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mil

lio

ns

1.8" 1" Mobile phone

Pat O’Malley, Seagate

John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

The Forest From The Trees

• HDD Unit TAM vs. NAND Unit Flash TAM

Total NAND Flash Cards and NAND Systems, Million Units - SanDisk Estimates Jan05HDD Unit Forecast – TrendFOCUS Apr04

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2004 2005 2006 2007

Other

Digital Audio

USB Drives

Mobile Phones

DSC/DVC

Million Units

Total HDD Units

Wes Brewer, SanDisk