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京都大學 グロバール COE プログラム 2009-2014 極端気象と適応社会の生存科学 Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Condition. 1. Series Lecture of Introduction to Sustainability/Survivability Science. Adaption (2). Dr. Bin HE [email protected] - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Dec. 9, 2010
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京都大學 グロバール COE プログラム 2009-2014
極端気象と適応社会の生存科学Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Condition
Adaption (2)Adaption (2)
Dr. Bin [email protected] Prevention Research InstituteKyoto University, Japan
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www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/csgr/events/.../agriculture
What is adaption? What is adaption?
Adjustments made to ‘enhance resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’
Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives:◦ Spatial scale◦ Climate stress / hazard◦ Baseline economic development level of the systems they are
implemented in Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity
◦ Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual adaptation
Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change
Adaptation is necessary in the short and longer term to address impacts resulting from CC.
Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.
Adaptation capacity is intimately connected to social and economic development but is unevenly distributed across and within societies.
International levelInternational level
National levelNational level
Regional/local levelRegional/local level
IPCC, Global modellingetc.
Climate change information,scenarios, legislation, monitoring
Measures, planning, management,crossectorial approach
Lars-Erik Liljelund @Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2009-09-01
Different level of adaptationDifferent level of adaptationDifferent level of adaptationDifferent level of adaptation
Regional/local levelRegional/local level
Adaptation: Reactive, AnticipatoryAdaptation: Reactive, Anticipatory
Insurance is an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events. ◦Public-private partnerships◦Disaster risk insurance◦Specifically in case of extreme events◦ Insurance may be an instrument worth
exploring
Simulation tools (hydrologic model, economic models)
Decision tools (cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis)
Integration tools and frameworks (Adaptation Policy Frameworks, National Action Plans for Adaptation)
Cross-cutting technology (geographical information systems, remote sensing)
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Most urban centres in low-income nations with low levels of GHG emissions; not much to ‘mitigate’.
Strong synergies between mitigation & adaptation for prosperous cities but not for all urban centres.
Urban expansion needs to take into account mitigation – but for most urban centres in low-income nations, adaptation far more important.◦ Why are northern funded programmes in Africa and Asia
emphasizing mitigation above adaptation?
www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_CC_cities.pdf, www.irfnet.ch/files-upload/knowledges/Are-cities-really-to-blame.pdf
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More than a third of the world’s total population A sixth of the world’s total population Most of the growth in the world’s population Most economic growth
◦ 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services
◦ Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres Urban and rural development can be hugely
complementary◦ Urban areas as markets and service centres for agriculture and
rural populations◦ Successful agriculture as a key stimulus to local urban
development
More than a third of the world’s total population A sixth of the world’s total population Most of the growth in the world’s population Most economic growth
◦ 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services
◦ Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres Urban and rural development can be hugely
complementary◦ Urban areas as markets and service centres for agriculture and
rural populations◦ Successful agriculture as a key stimulus to local urban
development
adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/101/adapt_e.phphttp://www.iccgov.org/files/ADAPTATION/DeBruin&DellinkActorReactversion_25_03_2009.pdf, life.com, yourrealestatetips.com
Most cities have large populations at high risk from extreme weather ◦ Common for 30-60% of the population to live in informal settlements◦ A high proportion on dangerous sites – floodplains, steep slopes◦ Drainage networks rarely cover more than half a city’s population
Climate change imposing new constraints, changing constraints and bringing uncertainty
Adaptation is impossible without ◦ basic protective infrastructure & services for entire population (but
very few urban areas have these)◦ special programmes to address those who are most vulnerable
Other measuresOther measures
Underground space
Construction of flood diversion channelsConstruction of flood diversion channelsConstruction of flood diversion channelsConstruction of flood diversion channels
KI
www.mass.gov/dep/public/committee/1009pres
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Climate is the most significant factor in determining plant growth and productivity
Under large uncertainty and potentially large damages, how information about risk and cost define the private strategies of farmers regarding when to invest in adaptation?
Will a farmer adopt a more aggressive adaptation strategy if he or she perceives his risk to be higher than average?
What knowledge does the farmers have today?
Have they already started to adapt?
Issues in rural areasIssues in rural areas
www.hgu.gu.se/Small%20farmers%20adaptation%20climate%20change- Cape%20Town
1. Optimizing water use efficiency: Drip irrigation in vegetable and fruit; Fertigation system (irrigation and fertilizer)
2. Optimized use of fertilizers to minimize leaching and nitrous oxide emissions.
3. Evaluate varieties suitable for changing agro-climatic conditions (drought, heat stress, high salinity, disease-resistance, etc)
4. Evaluation of crop production under protected culture
1. Optimizing water use efficiency: Drip irrigation in vegetable and fruit; Fertigation system (irrigation and fertilizer)
2. Optimized use of fertilizers to minimize leaching and nitrous oxide emissions.
3. Evaluate varieties suitable for changing agro-climatic conditions (drought, heat stress, high salinity, disease-resistance, etc)
4. Evaluation of crop production under protected culture
Response and Adaptations Measures
Optimizing energy mix by developing low-carbon and renewable energy
Solar radiationSolar radiation
Promote Sustainable Agricultural practicesPromote Sustainable Agricultural practices(soil conservation, integrated plant nutrient management , integrated (soil conservation, integrated plant nutrient management , integrated
pest management etc).pest management etc).
fi.cnr.itsgp.undp.orguwsp.edu
Constructing a soil conservation structure, to prevent the topsoil erosion.
http://www.cawd.zju.edu.cn/Detail.aspx?type=kycg&id=14http://news.163.com/09/1105/11/5NBQCJ94000120GR.htmlhttp://www.cnlssww.com/News_View.asp?NewsID=2529ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y4875e/y4875e06.pdf
Are risk minimizing and suitable for resource-poor farmers, enabling them to cultivate fruit and vegetables on dikes and bunds and to raise small livestock (pigs and poultry) as is culturally and economically preferred.Safeguard water, soil resources and agro biodiversity (of both rice and fish) and support a rich cultural diversity and associated management.
Are risk minimizing and suitable for resource-poor farmers, enabling them to cultivate fruit and vegetables on dikes and bunds and to raise small livestock (pigs and poultry) as is culturally and economically preferred.Safeguard water, soil resources and agro biodiversity (of both rice and fish) and support a rich cultural diversity and associated management.
Rice-fish systems Rice-fish systems
LivestockLivestock
Modify the Modify the environment environment to minimize to minimize heat stressheat stress(e.g. cooling, (e.g. cooling, shading, etc)shading, etc)
agnet.orgcoloradodisasterhelp.colostate.edu
Provide adequate waterProvide adequate water
Lower stocking densities to minimise mortality.Provide better quality feed (additives and mineral supplements)
Adjustments in planting and harvesting dates Planting of new crop varieties and species Changes in farming practices – tillage, use of
topography Application of fertilizers, pesticides and
herbicides Use of irrigation – timing and dose Use of farm equipment – tractors, harvesters, etc Improved food storage systems Herd management – splitting, switching,
diversification Transportation
Adjustments in planting and harvesting dates Planting of new crop varieties and species Changes in farming practices – tillage, use of
topography Application of fertilizers, pesticides and
herbicides Use of irrigation – timing and dose Use of farm equipment – tractors, harvesters, etc Improved food storage systems Herd management – splitting, switching,
diversification Transportation
OthersOthers
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Urban dependence on rural resources and eco-system services (including protective services)
Many urban livelihoods depend on rural (producer and consumer) demand for goods and services
How vulnerable low-income urban populations are to higher food prices or disruptions in food supplies
How many (poor and non-poor) households have rural and urban components to their livelihoods, incomes and asset bases
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Rapid informationRapid information
chithings.com
clipartof.com
Flood GateFlood Gate
Tsunami hazard map of Suzaki CityTsunami hazard map of Suzaki City
A non-structural measure “flood hazard map”A non-structural measure “flood hazard map”Flood hazard maps are a tool to show inundation risk areas, evacuation sites, etc. to residents in an easy-to-understand way based on inundation risk area maps produced by river administrators. The maps aim to help residents’ quick and safe evacuation.
Rainwater HarvestingRainwater Harvesting Concentrating, diverting, collecting, storing, and
utilizing and managing runoff for productive use.
Contribute to recovery of agricultural production in dry area as well as provide water for sustainable development.
brokencitylab.org
http://bee-eazybags.typepad.com/the_buzz/plastic_bag_bans/
icis.comfeel-good-friday.blogspot.com
Plastic bagPlastic bag
Save transportationSave transportation(Paper, time, energy)(Paper, time, energy)
http://www.google.co.jp/images
Turn off you TV, PC, etc.Turn off you TV, PC, etc.Each PC consume 60-250 wat/dayIf so, 83% CO2 can be saved
http://www.google.co.jp/images
Use public transportationsUse public transportations
http://www.google.co.jp/images
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Action on adaptation is needed now Focus on urban areas Core of adaptation is local development including
poverty reduction & good local governance Effective adaptation for urban areas needs effective
adaptation for rural areas Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover
against climate change and variability Climate Change is a global science; adaption to CC,
especially extreme weather events, are local, regional, national and global.
Action on adaptation is needed now Focus on urban areas Core of adaptation is local development including
poverty reduction & good local governance Effective adaptation for urban areas needs effective
adaptation for rural areas Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover
against climate change and variability Climate Change is a global science; adaption to CC,
especially extreme weather events, are local, regional, national and global.
5. Concluding remarks5. Concluding remarks
The ppt-file of this lecture can be downloaded from
http://ars.gcoe.kyoto-u.ac.jp/index.php?id=134
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IPCC, 2007http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/index.htmhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/extremes.html
sgp.undp.orgwww2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/csgr/eventsamericanprogress.orgwww.google.co.jp/imagesecopolitology.orgflickr.comwww.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_CC_cities.pdf, www.irfnet.ch/files-upload/knowledges/Are-cities-really-to-blame.pdf
etc.
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Thank you.
Questions?
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